OK, as an attorney, as a political commentator,

好吧，作為一個律師，作為一個政治評論員。

and frankly, as a former White House official,

並坦言，作為一名前白宮官員。

I used to think I knew a lot

我曾經以為我知道很多

about how America picks a president.

關於美國如何挑選總統。

I was wrong, I did not know.

我錯了，我不知道。

And this year,

而今年。

I've been doing some research into some of the fine print

我一直在研究一些細小的字樣

and all the different things in our constitution

以及我們憲法中的所有不同內容

that we never talk about,

我們從來沒有談論過的。

and I've discovered some legal loopholes

而且我發現了一些法律上的漏洞

that shocked me,

這讓我很震驚。

I guarantee will shock you,

我保證會讓你震驚。

and could determine the way

並能確定方向

that the presidential election of 2020 turns out.

2020年的總統選舉結果。

For instance, did you know that under our constitution

比如說，你知道根據我們的憲法...

a presidential candidate could actually lose the popular vote,

總統候選人實際上可能會失去民選票。

fail to get a majority in the electoral college,

未能在選舉團中獲得多數票。

refuse to concede,

拒不讓步。

manipulate hidden mechanisms in our government

玩弄官場潛規則

and still get sworn in as the president of the United States of America?

還能宣誓就任美國總統？

That's a true fact.

這是一個真實的事實。

I know it sounds like some crazy "House of Cards" episode,

我知道這聽起來像一些瘋狂的 "紙牌屋 "情節。

and I wish it was,

我希望它是。

because then we could just change the channel,

因為這樣我們就可以直接換頻道了。

but I just described to you a real-world, real-life possibility

但我只是向你描述了一個現實世界，現實生活中的可能性。

that could occur this year, the year I'm talking, in 2020,

可能發生在今年，也就是我說的2020年。

or in some other year,

或在其他年份。

if we don't fix some of these glitches in our system.

如果我們不修復系統中的一些小毛病，

So if you think, though,

所以如果你覺得，雖然。

that the American people's choice in a US presidential election

美國人民在美國總統選舉中的選擇權

should actually be sworn in to become president of the United States,

應該真正宣誓成為美國總統。

please pay attention to this talk.

請大家關注本次講座。

I'm going to teach you how to stop a coup, OK?

我教你如何阻止政變，好嗎？

Now, where to begin?

現在，從哪裡開始呢？

Alright, how about this:

好吧，這樣如何。

It turns out that one of the main safeguards of US democracy

原來美國民主的主要保障之一是

is not in the constitution at all.

在憲法中根本就沒有。

It's not in the law at all.

法律上根本就沒有規定。

It's actually just a little tradition, it's a little custom.

其實這只是一個小傳統，是一個小習俗。

And yet, this one voluntary gesture

然而，這一個自願的姿態

is one of the main reasons

是主要原因之一

that you almost never have riots and bloodshed and strife

你幾乎從來沒有暴動，流血和紛爭。

after a US election.

美國大選後。

What I'm talking about is a concession speech.

我說的是讓步演講。

OK, it's ironic,

好吧，這很諷刺。

it's the one speech no presidential candidate ever wants to give,

這是一個演講 沒有總統候選人想給。

and yet, it is that public address

然而，就是這樣的公共廣播

that is most important for the health

對健康最重要的

and the well-being of our nation.

和國家的福祉。

It's that speech, you know, when a presidential contender gives,

就是那個演講，你知道的，當一個總統競選人發表演講時。

it's after the advisers come and the media tells them,

這是在顧問來了之後，媒體告訴他們。

"Look, you're not going to get enough votes

"你看，你的票數是不夠用的

to be able to hit that magic number of 270 electoral college votes.

能夠達到270張選舉人票的神奇數字。

You're just not going to get there."

你只是不會去那裡。"

At that moment --

那一刻...

you don't think about this,

你不考慮這個。

but the fate of the entire republic

禍福相依

is in the hands of a single politician

掌握在一個政治家手中

and their willingness to walk out there

和他們願意走出去

and stand in front of their family and stand in front of the cameras

並站在家人面前，站在鏡頭前。

and stand in front of the whole nation

站在全國人民面前

and say, "I am conceding the race, voluntarily.

並說："我自願放棄比賽，。

Thank you to my supporters.

感謝我的支持者。

The other person has won now, congratulations to them,

現在對方已經贏了，恭喜他們。

let's unite behind them, let's move on, let's be one country.

讓我們團結在他們身後，讓我們繼續前進，讓我們成為一個國家。

God bless America."

上帝保佑美國。"

You've seen it a thousand times.

你已經看過一千遍了。

Make no mistake,

別搞錯了

this is a remarkable tradition in our country.

這是我們國家的一個了不起的傳統。

Because at that moment,

因為在那一刻。

that candidate still has at her command

該候選人還掌握著

a nationwide army of campaign activists,

一支全國性的運動積極分子隊伍。

of die-hard partisans,

的死忠黨員。

tens of thousands of people.

數以萬計的人。

They could just as easily take up arms,

他們也可以輕易拿起武器。

take to the streets,

上街。

they could do whatever they want to.

他們可以做任何他們想做的事情。

But that concession speech instantly demobilizes all of them.

但那篇讓步演講瞬間讓所有的人都復員了。

It says, "Hey, guys, stand down.

它說："嘿，夥計們，退下吧。

Folks, it's over."

各位，一切都結束了。"

Moreover, that concession speech

此外，那篇讓步演講

helps the tens of millions of people who voted for that person

幫助投給這個人的數千萬人。

to accept the outcome.

接受這個結果。

Acknowledge the winner, however begrudgingly,

承認贏家，然而勉強。

and then just get up the next morning,

然後就在第二天早上起床。

go to work, go to school,

上班，上學。

maybe disappointed

也許失望

but not disloyal to America's government.

但不是不忠於美國政府。

And even more importantly,

而更重要的是。

that concession speech has a technical function

讓步演說具有技術功能

in that it kind of allows all the other stuff

因為它允許所有其他的東西。

that our constitution requires after the voting,

我國憲法規定，投票後。

and there are a bunch of steps like,

並有一堆步驟，如。

you've got the electoral college that has got to meet,

你已經得到了選舉團 這已經得到了滿足。

you've got Congress who's got to ratify this thing,

你已經得到了國會 誰得到了準許這件事。

you've got an inauguration to be had,

你已經得到了一個就職典禮有。

all that stuff can just move ahead on automatic pilot

一帆風順

because after the concession speech,

因為在讓步演講之後。

every subsequent step

以後各步

to either reinstate the president or elevate a new president

復職或提拔新總統。

just happens on a rubber-stamp basis.

只是發生在橡皮圖章的基礎上。

The constitution requires it, but it's a rubber stamp.

憲法要求，但這是橡皮圖章。

But we sometimes forget, candidates do not have to concede.

但我們有時會忘記，考生不一定要讓步。

There's nothing that makes them concede.

沒有什麼能讓他們讓步的。

It's just a norm in a year in which nothing is normal.

這只是這一年裡的一種常態，在這一年裡，沒有什麼是正常的。

So what if a losing candidate simply refuses to concede?

那麼，如果失敗的候選人乾脆拒絕認輸呢？

What if there is no concession speech?

如果沒有讓步演講呢？

Well, what could happen might terrify you.

好吧，可能發生的事情可能會嚇到你。

I think it should.

我覺得應該這樣

First, to give you the background,

首先，給大家介紹一下背景。

let's make sure we're on the same page,

讓我們確保我們是在同一頁上。

let me give you this analogy.

讓我給你這個比喻。

Think about a presidential election as a baseball game.

把總統選舉看成是一場棒球比賽。

The end of the ninth inning,

第九局的結束。

whoever is ahead wins, whoever is behind loses.

勝者為王，敗者為寇。

That's baseball.

這就是棒球。

But could you imagine a different world

但你能想象一個不同的世界嗎？

in which, in baseball,

其中，在棒球。

there were actually 13 innings, or 14 innings, not just nine.

其實有13局，也就是14局，不只是9局。

But we just had a weird tradition.

但我們只是有一個奇怪的傳統。

If you are behind in the ninth inning,

如果你在第九局落後。

you just come out and concede.

你就出來認輸吧。

Alright?

好嗎？

So all those other innings don't matter.

所以其他那些局都不重要。

That's really how the presidential elections work in America.

這就是美國總統選舉的真實情況。

Because the constitution actually spells out

因為憲法實際上規定了

two different sets of innings.

兩套不同的局。

You've got the popular election process that everybody pays attention to.

你已經得到了大家關注的民選過程。

And then you've got the elite selection process

然後，你已經得到了精英選拔過程。

that everybody essentially ignores.

大家基本上都忽略了。

But in a close election,

但在激烈的選舉中。

if nobody concedes,

如果沒有人讓步。

the second invisible process,

第二種無形的過程。

these extra innings if you will,

這些額外的局，如果你願意。

they actually matter a whole lot.

它們其實很重要。

Let me explain.

讓我解釋一下。

That first set of innings, popular election,

這第一局，民選。

it's what you think about

是你的想法

when you think about the presidential election.

當你想到總統大選的時候。

It's the primaries, the caucuses, the debates,

這是初選，黨團，辯論。

the conventions, it's election night,

慣例，這是選舉之夜。

it's all that stuff.

就是這些東西。

Most of the time, the loser on election night

大多數時候，選舉夜的失敗者。

at that point just concedes.

在這一點上只是認輸。

Why? "The American people have spoken."

為什麼？"美國人民已經說了"

All that.

所有這些。

But according to the constitution, the game is technically not over.

但根據憲法，技術上游戲還沒有結束。

After the cameras go away,

攝影機走後。

after the confetti's swept away,

在紙屑被掃走之後，

the constitution requires this whole other set of innings.

憲法要求這一整套其他的局。

This elite selection process stuff,

這個精英選拔過程的東西。

and this is all behind closed doors,

而這一切都是閉門造車。

it's among government officials.

是政府官員中。

And this process goes from the end of the vote counting in November,

而這個過程從11月計票結束。

through December all the way and then January.

到12月一直到1月。

You just never think about it,

你只是從來沒有想過這個問題。

because for so many generations,

因為這麼多代人。

these extra innings haven't mattered much

勝負無常

because the election-night loser just concedes.

因為選舉夜的失敗者只是認輸。

So this other stuff is just a formality.

所以，這其他的東西只是一種形式。

Even in 2000,

就在2000年。

vice president Al Gore gave up

副總統戈爾放棄

as soon as the Supreme Court ordered an end to the vote counting.

最高法院一下令結束計票。

Gore did not continue the fight into the state legislatures,

戈爾沒有繼續戰鬥到州議會。

into the electoral college,

進入選舉團。

into Congress,

進入國會。

he didn't try to discredit the results in the press.

他並沒有試圖在媒體上詆譭結果。

Frankly, he didn't send his supporters out into the streets

坦白說，他並沒有讓他的支持者上街遊行

with protest signs

懸掛抗議標語

or pitchforks or long guns.

或草叉或長槍。

As soon as the court said the vote count is done,

法院一說計票就完了。

he just conceded to George W. Bush.

他剛剛向喬治-W-布什認輸了。

Because that's what we do,

因為這就是我們的工作。

that's just kind of how we do things around here.

這只是一種我們如何做 事情在這裡。

You don't fight in the extra innings.

你不會在加賽局裡打。

Until maybe 2020,

直到也許2020年。

when one major candidate is already saying

當一個主要候選人已經說

he may not accept the results of the vote counting.

他可能不接受點票結果。

Curse you 2020.

詛咒你2020年。

So what can happen instead?

那麼，怎樣才能代替呢？

Instead of conceding,

而不是讓步。

a losing candidate could launch a ferocious fight to grab power anyway.

失敗的候選人可以發動一場激烈的鬥爭，無論如何都要奪取政權。

Or to hold onto power anyway.

或者說無論如何都要守住權力。

In the courts, yes.

在法庭上，是的。

But also in the state houses, electoral college, even in Congress.

但在州議會，選舉團，甚至在國會也是如此。

They could file, for instance, dozens of lawsuits

比如說，他們可以提起幾十起訴訟。

attempting to block the counting of millions of, like, mail-in ballots,

試圖阻止數以百萬計的，比如，郵寄選票的計算。

saying they should all be thrown out, they're all fraudulent.

說他們都應該被扔掉，他們都是金光黨。

Then, they could demand

然後，他們可以要求

that the states refuse to certify the election

各州拒絕認證選舉

because of all this alleged fraud,

因為所有這些所謂的欺詐行為。

or interference from a foreign power.

或外國勢力的干涉。

Or the loser's party could send a rival slate of electors

或者，失敗者的政黨可以派出競爭對手的選民名單。

to the electoral college or to Congress,

選舉團或國會。

and say, "We're the real electors,"

並說，"我們才是真正的選民，"

and create a whole situation with that.

並以此創造出一個完整的局面。

Any of this stuff could create such a mess

任何一個東西都會造成這樣的混亂

in the electoral college and the Congress,

在選舉團和國會中。

that the whole matter just winds up in front of the House of Representatives

導致整個事件在眾議院面前不了了之。

for the first time since the 1800s.

為19世紀以來首次。

Now, here's where it gets totally crazy.

現在，這裡是它變得完全瘋狂的地方。

If the presidential election winds up in the House of Representatives,

如果總統選舉最終在眾議院舉行。

they don't have to pay any attention at all to the popular vote

他們根本不需要關注民調。

or the electoral vote.

或選舉投票。

It's like the election never happened.

這就像選舉從來沒有發生過。

And then it gets even crazier.

然後，它變得更加瘋狂。

The final tally in the House is taken not by delegates

眾議院的最終計票結果不是由代表們進行的

but by delegation.

但通過授權。

In other words,

換句話說

individual congresspeople don't get to vote.

個別國會議員沒有投票權。

It's done by states.

是由國家來做的。

Now, get your head wrapped around this.

現在，把你的頭繞過這個。

In 2020, the majority of Americans live in blue states,

2020年，大多數美國人生活在藍色的州。

but there are more red states.

但紅色的州比較多。

So there's a possibility

所以有可能

that the Republicans in the House of Representatives

眾議院的共和黨人

could just anoint their candidate to be president,

可以直接任命他們的候選人當總統。

even without the popular vote,

即使沒有民選，也是如此。

or a majority in electoral college.

或在選舉團中佔多數。

That could happen.

這可能發生。

Now some people would call that outcome

現在，有些人會把這個結果稱為

a perfectly legal,

一個完全合法的。

perfectly constitutional coup

政變

against the very idea of majority rule in the United States.

違背了美國多數派統治的理念。

That is possible under our constitution,

根據我國憲法，這是可能的。

and it can happen this year.

而且今年可以發生。

So what can you do about it?

那麼你能做些什麼呢？

OK now, keep in mind,

好了，現在，記住了。

if the margin of the victory is so massive,

如果勝利的幅度如此之大。

it's truly massive,

這是真正的大規模。

the losing candidate's political party is going to walk away

敗選者的政黨要走了

and just let their leader go down.

就這樣讓他們的上司下去了。

Nobody is going to risk a constitutional crisis

沒有人會冒著憲法危機的風險

to save somebody who is super unpopular.

來拯救一個超級不受歡迎的人。

But if the race is close,

但如果比賽很接近。

all bets are off.

所有的賭注都是關閉的。

And then the fight could continue long past election night.

然後戰鬥可能會持續很久，超過選舉之夜。

You could be, you know, trying to deal impact

你可能是，你知道，試圖處理影響。

this whole other process you never heard of before.

這整個其他過程，你從來沒有聽說過。

You're going to have to be lobbying,

你要去做遊說工作。

protesting, speaking out, contacting lawmakers,

抗議，發言，聯繫立法者。

a whole other process you've never done before.

一個全新的過程，你從來沒有做過。

So landing in this completely unfamiliar scenario,

所以落在這個完全陌生的場景中。

what can you do?

你能做什麼？

How are we supposed to act?

我們應該如何行動？