In a country of maddening complexity, they are the reliable punctuation off American life.

在這個複雜得令人發狂的國家，它們是美國生活中可靠的標點。

2020 could well be different after today's news.

今天的新聞之後，2020年很可能會有所不同。

The road to this election and that America takes after it could well be much more complicated.

這次選舉和美國之後的道路很可能會更加複雜。

E.

E.

I have amassed great here.

我在這裡積累了很大的。

I put a mask on, you know, when I think I need it.

我戴上面具，你知道，當我認為我需要它。

Amidst the speculation on drama, we should bear in mind the possibility that the president recovers relatively quickly.

在對戲劇性的猜測中，我們應該牢記總統有可能比較快地恢復。

Of course, he'll have to cancel rallies on postpone the next debate.

當然，他必須取消集會，延後下一次辯論。

President Trump has previously called for the election to be postponed itself.

特朗普總統此前曾呼籲選舉自行延後。

Given he will be off the pitch, He may well do so again.

鑑於他將離開球場，他很可能會再次這樣做。

E.

E.

But if he doesn't get better, we head into a much more complicated scenario, one fraught with legal and political uncertainty.

但如果他沒有好轉，我們就會面臨更復雜的局面，充滿法律和政治不確定性。

If the president becomes seriously ill before Election Day, he could invoke the 25th Amendment.

如果總統在選舉日之前病重，他可以援引第25條修正案。

This would allow the vice president to become the acting president until he recovers.

這樣就可以讓副總統成為代理總統，直到他康復為止。

This has happened before.

這種情況以前也發生過。

When President Reagan was shot in 1981 on when George W.

當1981年裡根總統被槍殺時，當喬治-W。

Bush had heart surgery in 2000 and seven.

布什在2000年做了心臟手術，七。

But it's never been used for a prolonged period, let alone just before an election.

但它從未被長期使用過，更何況是在選舉前。

The bigger question arises.

更大的問題出現了。

If Trump weren't able to hand over, then the Cabinet would have to get involved with a majority vote declaring him incapacitated.

如果特朗普無法交接，那麼內閣就必須參與多數票，宣佈他無能力。

Where again, Pence takes over, though we're not nearly at that point.

在哪裡，彭斯又接過來了，雖然我們還沒有到那個地步。

Questions are being asked about what happens if the worst happens if the president dies from the disease either before or after Election Day.

有人問，如果最壞的情況發生了，如果總統在選舉日之前或之後死於這種疾病，會發生什麼。

Truly uncharted territory.

真正的未知領域。

If it were to happen before the election, the Republican National Committee would have to choose another candidate, most likely Vice President Pence.

如果在選舉前發生，共和黨全國委員會將不得不選擇另一個候選人，很可能是副總統彭斯。

But not necessarily.

但也不一定。

We're so late in the election process that states are not going to be able to reprint ballots with the new nominee from the Republican Party.

我們在選舉過程中已經太晚了，各州將無法用共和黨的新提名人重印選票。

At the top of the ticket on DSO, voters who are supporting the Republican Party would either vote for President Trump on the ballot.

在DSO上，支持共和黨的選民或者會在選票上投給特朗普總統。

Or, conceivably, they might right in the candidate that the Republican National Committee has chosen to replace them on this is as nothing to compare.

或者，可以想象，他們可能會正確地在共和黨全國委員會所選擇的候選人，以取代他們對這是作為什麼比較。

If it were toe happen after the election had taken place.

如果是在選舉之後發生的。

But before the Electoral College, the body which technically chooses the president were to meet.

但在選舉團之前，技術上選擇總統的機構要開會。

So let's assume President Trump has won the election.

所以我們假設特朗普總統贏得了選舉。

Um, but he's no longer able to serve.

嗯，但他已經不能服務了。

Uh, now.

呃，現在。

At that point, the Republican National Committee would probably announce who they preferred.

屆時，共和黨全國委員會可能會宣佈他們喜歡誰。

Thio replace President Trump.

Thio取代特朗普總統。

But it would be up to the electors in the Electoral College from the states that President Trump had one who are presumably Republican Party loyalists, to decide who they would vote for in the Electoral College.

但要由特朗普總統有一個大概是共和黨忠實的各州的選舉人，來決定他們在選舉團中投給誰。

Even in 18 64 with half the unions has ceded, the American electoral process went ahead.

即使在18 64年有一半的工會已經讓出，美國的選舉進程也在繼續。

This election might be the most uncertain since.

這次選舉可能是自以來最不確定的一次。

Remember that this election was already likely tohave a legally contested process on potentially a legally contested outcome.

請記住，這次選舉本來就可能有一個法律上有爭議的過程，有可能有一個法律上有爭議的結果。

Not since Lincoln's day as one side made it so clear that they might not accept the results of an election.

自林肯時代以來，沒有一方如此明確地表示他們可能不接受選舉的結果。

The union Lincoln saved, whilst far from him in time is not so distant in terms of its political space.

林肯拯救的聯邦雖然在時間上離他很遠，但在政治空間上卻並不遙遠。

In terms of the deep uncertainty which undoubtedly now lies ahead little school, and before I go to my next guest, we're just getting news that Joe Biden has taken down all negative ads about this campaign and Donald Trump.

在深層次的不確定性方面，現在毫無疑問地擺在小學校面前，在我去見下一位客人之前，我們剛剛得到消息，喬-拜登已經取下了所有關於這次競選和唐納德-特朗普的負面廣告。

And that is a story from Reuters.

而這是路透社的報道。

Just in well, I'm joined now by the author and professor of politics at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato.

剛剛好，我現在由作家和弗吉尼亞大學政治學教授拉里-薩巴托加入。

But Subito and renowned constitutional law expert Alan Dershowitz Good evening to both of you, Alan Dershowitz.

但蘇比託和著名憲法專家艾倫-德肖維茨兩位晚上好，艾倫-德肖維茨。

If I could just pick up with you.

如果我可以和你搭訕。

We understand the 25th Amendment as it stands, but surely 32 days from an election, we are in completely uncharted waters.

我們理解目前的第25條修正案，但肯定的是，距離選舉還有32天，我們完全處於未知的水域。

Well, we're on started waters.

好吧，我們在開始的水域。

When it what happens to a candidate, we know what happens to a president.

當一個候選人發生什麼事時，我們知道一個總統會發生什麼事。

The 25th Amendment handles that very well, But what happens to a candidate even if he's a sitting president?

第25條修正案很好地處理了這一點，但即使候選人是現任總統又如何？

Remember that presidential elections are really 50 state elections in every single state has different rules about how you can replace a candidate.

請記住，總統選舉其實是50個州的選舉，每個州對如何更換候選人都有不同的規定。

Many votes have already been cast.

已經有很多人投了票。

Many ballots have already been sent out.

許多選票已經發出。

And so even if the Republican National Committee, or, say to nominate pence or, in an extreme case, nominate Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo, who they would prefer perhaps a stronger candidate every state would have to decide that they are eligible to vote, and the electors would then have to decide to cast a vote for them on.

是以，即使共和黨全國委員會，或者說提名彭斯或，在極端情況下，提名尼基-海利或邁克-蓬佩奧，他們更傾向於也許是一個更強大的候選人，每個州都必須決定他們有資格投票，然後選舉人將不得不決定投票給他們。

And the worst case scenario is if you had a three way race, if you had in some states, the president still on the ballot in other states the vice president, other states, yet Ah, third party candidate you can end up with on electoral non majority, in which case the election goes to the House of Representatives, where every state casts one vote.

最壞的情況是，如果你有一個三方的比賽， 如果你在一些州，總統仍然在選票上 在其他州，副總統，其他州，但啊，第三方候選人 你可以最終與選舉人非多數， 在這種情況下，選舉去眾議院， 在那裡每個州投一票。

This is surely not only uncharted ground, but constitutionally ambiguous ground.

這肯定不僅是未知領域，而且是憲法上的模糊領域。

I think the end result of this is gonna be we're gonna need a constitutional amendment, but it won't apply to this election.

我想最終的結果是我們需要修改憲法 但這並不適用於這次選舉。

Well, this is, I must say, we're not at the stage yet, of course, of saying that Donald Trump would not be able to contest the election.

好吧，我必須說，我們還沒有到這個階段，當然，說唐納德-特朗普將無法參加選舉。

But Larry Sabato, this potentially has huge significance.

但拉里-薩巴托，這可能有巨大的意義。

Well, potentially.

嗯，有可能。

It's a nightmare scenario, and it's pretty far fetched, and I don't think it's going to happen.

這是個噩夢般的場景，而且很牽強，我認為這不會發生。

Uh, you know, we play this game every four years with presidential candidates, even when you don't have a candidate who's ill There's a pretty well outlined procedure for the National Party committee to replace either the presidential candidate or the vice presidential candidate.

我們每四年都會和總統候選人玩這個遊戲 即使沒有生病的候選人也會玩這個遊戲 國家黨委員會有一個很好的程序 來替換總統候選人或副總統候選人。

Vice presidential candidates have been replaced.

副總統候選人已被替換。

One on the Democratic side, one on the Republican side, a Republican incumbent vice president died in October of 1912 when the incumbent president, William Howard Taft, was running for re election.

一個在民主黨那邊，一個在共和黨那邊，1912年10月，現任總統威廉-霍華德-塔夫脫競選連任時，共和黨的一位現任副總統去世。

He didn't win, so we didn't have to worry about it.

他沒有贏，所以我們不用擔心。

But the Republican National Committee nominated someone before the election, and sure enough, the electors pledged Thio.

但共和黨全國委員會在選舉前提名了一個人，果然，選民們承諾提奧。

President Taft voted for that new vice presidential candidate.

塔夫脫總統把票投給了那位新的副總統候選人。

So you don't buy the Alan Dershowitz version that it could be, as it were, a three way split.

所以，你不買艾倫-德肖維茨的版本，它可能是，因為它是一個三方的分裂。

No, it's possible, but it's a nightmare scenario.

不，這是可能的，但這是一個噩夢般的場景。

And, you know, I like to have pleasant dreams, so I don't focus on things like that.

而且，你知道，我喜歡做愉快的夢，所以我不關注這樣的事情。

I have Thio.

我有Thio.

Earlier in the program, Alan Dershowitz We spoke to Steve Bolton, GOP president in Chicago, on he absolutely dismissed the idea that there be anything other than candor coming out of the White House.

早些時候，艾倫-德肖維茨 我們採訪了史蒂夫-博爾頓，芝加哥的GOP總統，他絕對駁回了這個想法，有什麼其他的坦率出來的白宮。

But do you agree?

但你同意嗎？

Do you think that White House will always tell the truth about what's going on at the moment or for national security reasons.

你認為白宮會一直說實話，目前的情況還是出於國家安全考慮。

Could the delay.

能否延遲。

I don't think they will be able not to tell the truth.

我想他們不可能不說實話。

There will be leaks are good reporters.

會有洩密者是好記者。

The truth will come out, I believe.

真相會大白的，我相信。

And I agree with your prior guests, I think aereo.

我同意你之前的客人的意見，我認為有聲有色。

But because of the threats of violence in the street and the threats of going to court, we have to now be prepared for every possible nightmare scenario.

但由於街頭暴力的威脅和上法庭的威脅，我們現在必須為各種可能的噩夢場景做好準備。

We should not be sleeping comfortably and well.

我們不應該睡得很舒服、很好。

We should be worried this could happen.

我們應該擔心這種情況會發生。

The Republican National Committee could be split and divided.

共和黨全國委員會可能會被分裂和分裂。

It could nominate a candidate who is not the vice president.

它可以提名一個不是副總統的候選人。

Vice president might say No, I'm the approach candidate.

副總統可能會說不，我是方針候選人。

There are a lot of possibilities and also state by state.

有很多的可能性，也有國家的。

They have to decide whether or not to accept the recommendation of the Republican National Committee.

他們必須決定是否接受共和黨全國委員會的建議。

So the old telegram, you know, bad news.

所以，老電報，你知道，壞消息。

Worry.

擔心。

Now you know, more news coming soon.

現在你知道了，更多的消息很快就會出現。

That's what we have to worry about.

這就是我們要擔心的。

Bad news now.

現在是個壞消息

Worst news soon.

最壞的消息很快。

We hope we don't have it.

我們希望我們沒有它。

We're all hoping that the president recovers quickly and we have a firm and clear election with a clear and determined outcome, but there is no guarantee right now.

我們都希望總統儘快康復，我們有一個堅定而清晰的選舉，有一個明確而堅定的結果，但現在沒有保證。

So e must say that you did represent Donald Trump in the impeachment trial.

所以我必須說你在彈劾審判中代表了唐納德・特朗普。

You're also very keen part of the legal team, but you're also have a key watch of what goes on politically and in such a polarized election.

你也是法律團隊中非常敏銳的一員，但你也對政治上發生的事情，以及在這樣一個兩極化的選舉中，有一個關鍵的觀察。

Do you think that anything that's happening right now would shift the dial?

你覺得現在發生的任何事情都會改變錶盤嗎？

Or do you think things are pretty set in concrete?

還是說你覺得事情已經很具體了？

Well, I think they were pretty set in concrete, and I think this can shift the dial.

我覺得他們是很有把握的，我覺得這可以改變盤面。

We saw that when Boris Johnson was sick, he got a lot of support from people who wouldn't otherwise necessarily supporting The symphony package could come into effect, but also President Trump runs on being a strong, powerful president who attacks weak people and attacked Biden for not wearing masks.

我們看到，當鮑里斯-約翰遜生病時，他得到了很多人的支持，否則不一定會支持交響樂方案可能會生效，但特朗普總統也是一個強大的，強大的總統，他攻擊弱者，並攻擊拜登不戴面具。

So this could change the dynamic of the election.

所以這可能會改變選舉的動態。

But it's too early to tell Isolated.

但現在說隔離還為時過早。

What's your view on whether it changes the dynamic of the election?

你對它是否會改變選舉的動態有什麼看法？

It does not.

它沒有。

It's very unlikely to do so.

這樣做的可能性很小。

I think basically, people decided months, maybe years ago, whether they loved or hated Donald Trump, and those are the only two emotions attached to Donald Trump.

我認為基本上，人們在幾個月前，也許幾年前就決定了他們是愛唐納德-特朗普還是恨唐納德-特朗普，這是唯一兩種附加在唐納德-特朗普身上的情感。

They've known for a long time.

他們早就知道了。

We've known for a long time how we were going to vote in this election.

我們早就知道這次選舉我們要怎麼投票。

While we all hope the president recovers.

雖然我們都希望總統能康復。

Of course, he is partly responsible for his own problems.

當然，他要為自己的問題負一部分責任。

No question about that.

這一點毫無疑問。

He's been very irresponsible in not wearing mask, not making.

他一直很不負責任的不戴口罩，不使。

The people around him were masked, not making his people and supporters and staffers social distance.

他身邊的人都戴著口罩，不使他的人和支持者、職員社會距離。

So the sympathy factor is going to be pretty much confined to those who are already voting for him.

所以，同情的因素幾乎要侷限於那些已經投給他的人。

Of the Trump East is all across the United States, Very few people would cross the aisle to vote for him On this basis again, we all hope he gets better.

特朗普的東家都在美國各地，很少有人會越過過道投他的票，在這個基礎上，我們又都希望他變得更好。

As we hope, every cove in patient gets better, including those without gold plated health care.

正如我們所希望的那樣，每一位患者都會好起來，包括那些沒有鍍金的醫療服務。

Now on the question.

現在說說這個問題。

Sorry on Dash has come in there.

對不起，Dash已經進來了。

I don't agree.

我不同意。

I do think there are undecided voters.

我確實認為有一些未決定的選民。

Still, there are some voters who would be affected by the sympathy factor enough to change the outcome of the election.

不過，還是有一些選民會受到同情因素的影響，足以改變選舉結果。

I doubt it, but Americans care deeply about the presidency and their president, and it's not only people who love Donald Trump, who are hoping and praying for his full recovery.

我懷疑，但美國人非常關心總統職位和他們的總統，不僅是愛唐納德-特朗普的人，他們希望並祈禱他完全康復。

I think there are a lot of Americans in the middle, decent Americans who just care deeply about the president and might be somewhat more sympathetic to his plight, his wife's flight than they would otherwise be.

我認為有很多美國人在中間，正派的美國人只是深深地關心總統，可能會對他的困境，他妻子的逃亡比他們會更同情一些。

Elisabetta if Donald Trump did not do one father minute of campaigning in the next 32 days, not one further minute.

Elisabetta若唐納德-特朗普在不到來32天內不做壹父親分鐘的競選，不又壹分鐘。

Is there anything there that would illegitimate is as it were the election?

那裡有什麼東西會不合法的是，因為它是選舉？

Or does the fact of who campaigns and who doesn't actually have nothing to do with it?

還是說，誰競選誰不競選，其實與此無關？

Well, normally campaigning matters a lot, and I'm not going to say it doesn't matter this time.

好吧，平時競選很重要，我不會說這次不重要。

It could matter, depending on what else happens.

這可能是重要的，這取決於發生的其他事情。

It's October 2nd, and we've already had a massive October surprise.

今天是10月2日，我們已經有了一個巨大的十月驚喜。

There could be other October surprises.

10月可能還有其他驚喜。

We could have other black swan events in this crazy, cursed year of 2020.

在2020年這個瘋狂的、被詛咒的年份，我們可能會有其他的黑天鵝事件。

But, uh, in this case, we have the ultimate polarizer, the most polarizing person in American politics in my lifetime.

但是，呃，在這種情況下，我們有最終的極化者， 最極化的人在美國政治 在我的一生。

And because of that, people have divided into camps long ago.

也正因為如此，人們早已抽成了不同的陣營。

Most of them, the vast majority, are not going to switch.

他們中的絕大多數人，是不會換的。

You could hope that a president recovers and vote against him.

你可以寄希望於某位總統康復，投他的反對票。

It's very easy to Dio.

這是很容易迪奧。

And by the way, millions have already voted.

對了，幾百萬人已經投票了。

Million's have already voted, Thank you both very much indeed.

百萬人已經投了票，真的非常感謝你們兩位。