Name: 科維德之後：Brexit會是英國經濟的下一個衝擊嗎？| DW新聞 (After Covid: Will Brexit be the next shock for Britain's economy? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2020-10-24T02:00:47.000Z
Duration: 7 min

Now Britain is struggling with the economic impact off the coronavirus pandemic.

現在，英國正在努力與經濟影響關閉冠狀病毒大流行。

程度副詞

Jane just announced they'll start rationing items amid fears off second wave of panic buying.

簡剛剛宣佈，他們將開始配給物品，因為擔心第二波的恐慌性購買。

But things could get even worse after a no deal.

但在沒有達成協議後，情況可能會變得更糟。

Brexit, the British retail consortium warns that tariffs would push up prices, hitting shoppers on retailers alike that if goods actually arrive in the UK long lines at the harbor of Dover and the Eurotunnel, the British government fears that trucks will wait up to two days in traffic jams to get through customs clearance.

Brexit，英國零售財團警告說，關稅將推高價格，對零售商的購物者造成打擊，如果貨物真的到達英國多佛港和歐洲隧道的長隊，英國政府擔心卡車將在交通堵塞中等待長達兩天的時間來通過清關。

It believes there will be a backup of 7000 HDTVs, or heavy goods vehicles, waiting to cross into the U from Kent.

它相信會有7000輛高清電視或重型貨車的後備力量，等待著從肯特郡進入U。

That's the worst case scenario that London is currently grappling with.

這是倫敦目前正在努力解決的最糟糕的情況。

The scenario builds on an estimate that only 50 to 70% of large businesses on just 20 to 40% of small and medium sized enterprises would be ready for the strict application of new you requirements.

該方案建立在這樣的估計之上，即只有50至70%的大型企業對只有20至40%的中小型企業會準備好嚴格執行新的你要求。

In those circumstances, that could mean that only between 30 and 60% off laden H G V s would arrive at the border with the necessary formalities completed for the goods on board.

在這種情況下，這可能意味著只有30%至60%的滿載貨物的H G V型船能夠在完成船上貨物的必要手續後抵達邊境。

They therefore be turned back by the French border authorities clogging the Dover to Cali crossing.

是以，法國邊防當局將堵塞在多佛至卡利過境點的他們拒之門外。

One reason why businesses are so poorly prepared is the coronavirus pandemic.

企業準備不足的原因之一是冠狀病毒大流行。

The companies have been focusing on coping with the consequences of the lock down.

各家公司一直在集中精力應對封鎖的後果。

Ah think tank, with economists from London's King's College has concluded that a no deal Brexit could have three times the negative impact on the British economy has the coronavirus the consequences of the pandemic.

啊智庫，與來自倫敦國王學院的經濟學家得出結論，無協議的Brexit可能會對英國經濟產生三倍的負面影響，有冠狀病毒的流行後果。

But in the long term, a no deal Brexit would leave deeper scars.

但從長遠來看，無協議的Brexit會留下更深的傷痕。

Well, right now, everything points towards a no deal, Brexit, especially after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to step back on parts of the withdrawal agreement, which was the basis for trade negotiations on which Johnson himself signed only last year.

好吧，現在，一切都指向無協議，Brexit，特別是在英國首相鮑里斯-約翰遜決定對退歐協議的部分內容進行退讓，而退歐協議是約翰遜本人去年才簽署的貿易談判的基礎。

But for more, I'm joined by Craig Earlham, senior market analyst at Wander in London.

但更多的內容，我請到了倫敦Wander公司的高級市場分析師Craig Earlham。

Craig, good to have you with us, Um, well, the London Stock Exchange modeling has put the long term economic hit from a no deal Brexit at 8% of GDP.

克雷格，很高興你和我們在一起， 嗯，好吧，倫敦證券交易所的模型已經把長期的經濟打擊 從無協議的Brexit在國內生產總值的8％。

At the same time, JP Morgan is moving 200 billion euros from London to Frankfurt, citing Brexit as a reason.

同時，摩根大通以Brexit為由，將2000億歐元從倫敦轉移到法蘭克福。

Why would London now seemingly pushed for a no deal?

為什麼倫敦現在看起來會推崇無協議？

Honestly, I don't think London is pushing for a no deal.

老實說，我不認為倫敦會推崇無協議。

I think they believe the threat of no deal.

Brexit has to be on the table in order to try and get some more favorable negotiating terms.

Brexit必須擺在桌面上，以嘗試獲得一些更有利的談判條件。

Whether that's successful, we'll have to wait and see later on this year.

能否成功，我們要在今年下半年拭目以待。

But I don't think anyone or I don't think most people at this stage really want no no deal Brexit in particular business and the government will be all too aware of that.

但我不認為任何人或我不認為大多數人在這個階段真的希望沒有無協議的Brexit特別是企業，政府將所有意識到這一點。

I think the risk from no deal Brexit stems from the government backing itself into a corner on potentially leaving itself with no other alternative, Right?

我認為，無協議的Brexit的風險源於政府將自己逼入困境，可能讓自己別無選擇，對吧？

This threat needs to be on the table in order to get more favorable terms.

為了獲得更有利的條件，這種威脅需要擺在桌面上。

I know that the Brexit negotiations and everything has been going on for four years.

我知道，Brexit談判和一切已經持續了四年。

然而，確實喚起了我們的記憶。

Well, I think I mean, there's there's a number of points still on the table.

好吧，我想我的意思是，有... ...有一些點仍然在桌子上。

I think fishing rights is still a contentious issue.

我覺得漁權還是一個有爭議的問題。

Um, in these negotiations, there is also about state aid, another issue in these negotiations.

嗯，在這些談判中，還有關於國家援助的問題，這是這些談判中的另一個問題。

I think what London is primarily fighting for is the ability to effectively self rule and is the ability to make these decisions itself.

我認為倫敦主要爭取的是有效自我統治的能力，是自己做出這些決定的能力。

We've got to remember this is not a conservative government that necessarily back state aid to any significant degree, but the flexibility to allow itself to have the freedom Thio go down that route, for example, in the future, I think, is an important negotiating ploy as far as this government is concerned.

我們必須記住，這不是一個保守的政府，不一定支持國家援助到任何重要的程度，但靈活性，允許自己有自由Thio走這條路，例如，在未來，我認為，是一個重要的談判策略，就這個政府而言。

But like I say, I think we all we have to see this through the prism off a negotiation.

但就像我說的，我想我們都要從談判的角度來看待這個問題。

What the government says it wants now on what it ultimately wants.

政府現在說要什麼，就最終要什麼。

It's on goal to be maybe two entirely different things.

它的目標也許是兩件完全不同的事情。

You set your stall out here and here with the idea that hopefully you'll end up somewhere in between.

你把你的攤子擺在這裡和這裡的想法，希望你最終會在兩者之間的某個地方結束。

On, I think the ast faras the UK government is concerned having no deal.

上，我認為英國政府關心的st faras有無協議。

Brexit is an option on the table on extremely unfavorable outcome.

Brexit是在極度不利的結果上的一種選擇。

As far as both sides are concerned, particularly here in the UK, then that potentially moves that line from here slightly closer towards your favor again.

就雙方而言，尤其是在英國，那麼這有可能使這條線從這裡又稍微向你的有利方向靠近。

Whether that actually turns out to be true is an entirely different thing.

至於事實是否真的如此，則完全是另一回事。

So while while Britain or while London ISS playing such games, that's actually a quote from some European policymakers saying Britain should stop playing such games.

所以當英國或者當倫敦ISS玩這種遊戲的時候，這其實是歐洲一些政策制定者的一句話，說英國應該停止玩這種遊戲。

But while this is happening, obviously business doesn't quite know how to how to deal with what's coming or not coming.

但在這種情況下，顯然企業還不太知道如何如何應對來與不來的問題。

And now the British government actually says that British small and medium sized enterprises failed to adequately prepare for Brexit.

而現在英國政府居然說，英國中小企業未能為Brexit做好充分準備。

Yeah, this this this again is a really strange point.

是啊，這這這又是一個很奇怪的點。

From Michael Gove, you could understand that 5% of businesses were unprepared of 10% of businesses were unprepared.

從邁克爾-戈夫那裡，你可以理解為5%的企業沒有準備好10%的企業沒有準備好。

Then you could say that this is solely the blame of these businesses, because the guidelines air clearly clear enough that 90% of the businesses feel fully prepared.

那麼你可以說，這完全是這些企業的責任，因為準則的空氣清晰明確，90%的企業都覺得準備充分。

If 75% of businesses run prepared, then this is ultimately the government that is to blame.

如果75%的企業都是有備而來，那麼這最終是政府的責任。

Whether that is because they've been, they haven't.

不管是因為他們一直在，還是沒有。

They've like clarity in terms of their guidelines for how businesses must prepare.

他們在企業必須準備的準則方面已經像明確。

Maybe it's a cost issue on, especially when you're looking at SMEs.

也許這是一個成本問題上，尤其是當你在看中小企業的時候。

They just don't have the ability Teoh be able to prepare because they don't have the cash available in order to invest in the way that large businesses air able.

他們只是沒有能力Teoh能夠準備好，因為他們沒有現金，以投資的方式，大型企業空氣能夠。

Ultimately, if we get to the end of this year in, 75% of SMEs are going to be un prepared for Brexit hard, Brexit, nosy or Brexit.

最終，如果我們到今年年底在，75%的中小企業將對Brexit硬、Brexit、nosy或Brexit毫無準備。

Then the government is ultimately to blame because it means that a they've promised that this is gonna be an extremely straightforward process.

那麼政府最終要受到指責，因為這意味著，他們已經承諾，這將是一個非常簡單的過程。

The prospect of Lorries queueing at Dover is, or scaremongering on, that businesses will be absolutely fine.

貨車在多佛排隊的前景是，或者說是嚇唬人的，企業絕對會沒事。

They can't say this one minute and then a couple of months before no deal or a hard deal.

他們不能一會兒說這話，一會兒說那話，幾個月後再不成交或硬成交。

Brexit say that businesses were prepared to this scale, and it's all their fault.

布雷克斯說，企業已經做好了這個規模的準備，這都是他們的錯。

These two things just don't add up, all right?

這兩件事情加起來就不對了，好嗎？

只是非常，非常簡短的克雷格。

On a scale from 1 to 10 what are the chances that we will see a deal by the end of the year?

從1到10的比例來看，我們到年底看到交易的機會有多大？

I've been in the eternal optimist throughout this.

在這期間，我一直處於永恆的樂觀主義者。

I still see it 78 out of 10 but I will say that I will say that this is probably the most pessimistic.

我還是認為78分，但我要說的是，這可能是最悲觀的。

好吧，克雷格女孩，我在倫敦。