- Sweet, okay, we're recording.

- 甜蜜，好的，我們正在錄製。

(claps)

（鼓掌）

So, I'm in New York right now

所以，我現在在紐約

and The Verge offices are basically shut down.

和The Verge的辦公室基本都關閉了。

We're all working from home,

我們都在家裡工作。

because of the coronavirus outbreak.

因為冠狀病毒的爆發。

And while we can still publish remotely,

而當我們還可以遠程發佈。

a lot of stuff is just shutting down.

很多東西都是剛剛關閉的。

- Indoor shopping malls across the state

- 全州室內商場

closed last night, until further notice.

昨晚關閉，直到另行通知。

- 98.8% of our schools have closed down.

- 我國98.8%的學校已經停辦。

- 100% of the workforce must stay home.

- 100%的勞動力必須留在家裡。

- Right now, the urgent problem is the public health crisis.

- 現在，當務之急是公共衛生危機。

We need to slow the spread of infections,

我們需要減緩感染的蔓延。

and filled out hospital capacity.

並充實了醫院的能力。

That's what's most important.

這才是最重要的。

But behind the public health crisis,

但在公共衛生危機的背後。

there's also a manufacturing gridlock

製造業也是如此

that's gonna cause huge problems

後患無窮

for basically every hardware company.

基本上每個硬件公司的。

It turns out mass producing hardware is really complex,

事實證明，大規模生產硬件真的很複雜。

with thousands of moving parts,

有成千上萬的運動部件。

and almost no stockpile to fall back on,

而且幾乎沒有庫存可依。

when a disaster like the coronavirus hits.

當像冠狀病毒這樣的災難發生時。

When China went on lockdown in February,

當中國在2月份鎖定。

it basically stopped electronics manufacturing cold.

基本上阻止了電子製造業的冷落。

An analyst group called TrendForce

一個名為TrendForce的分析小組

estimates that 5.7 million laptop computers

估計有570萬檯筆記本電腦

shipped in February, which might sound like a lot,

2月發貨，這聽起來可能很多。

but it's a 48% drop from last year.

但比去年下降了48%。

We're already seeing some of the impact from that.

我們已經看到了其中的一些影響。

If you need to replace a broken MacBook right now,

如果你現在需要更換一臺壞掉的MacBook。

you could be waiting for awhile.

你可能會等待一段時間。

And some analysts are predicting

而一些分析師預測

the next round of iPhones could also be delayed.

下一輪的iPhone也可能會被延後。

Manufacturing is just a much more brittle system

製造業只是一個更脆弱的系統而已

than people realize,

比人們意識到的。

the result of a hundred years of cutthroat competition.

百年切磋的結果。

But to see how it got that way,

但要看它怎麼會變成這樣。

you have to look at the big picture.

你必須看清大局。

Making a computer or a smart phone

製作電腦或智能手機

is really complex.

是真的很複雜。

But, the process itself is really just an assembly line.

但是，這個過程本身其實只是一條流水線。

This system was pioneered by Henry Ford

這個系統是由亨利-福特開創的

in the early 20th century.

在20世紀初。

- [Narrator] Everyday, as many as 80 boxcars of parts

- 每天都有多達80箱的零件被運走

arrive at each plant.

到達每個工廠。

- Everything has to happen in the exact right order.

- 一切都要按正確的順序進行。

So, running out of a specific part

所以，用完一個特定的零件

can stop the whole assembly line in its tracks.

可以讓整條流水線停滯不前。

To make sure that didn't happen,

為了確保這種情況不會發生。

Ford arranged his system in batches.

福特分批安排他的系統。

Executives would decide at the beginning of the process

行政人員將在進程開始時決定

how many cars to make.

要做多少輛車。

But, batch production created other problems.

但是，批量化生產帶來了其他問題。

It was really hard to guess the right batch size

要猜測正確的批量大小真的很困難

so far in advance.

到目前為止，提前。

And even if the executives hit the right number,

而且即使高管們打對了號。

they had to manage huge stock piles of inventory.

他們不得不管理大量的庫存堆積。

Whether it was parts waiting to be assembled,

無論是等待組裝的零件。

or cars waiting to be sold.

或等待出售的汽車。

(metal banging)

（金屬敲擊）

After the second world war,

第二次世界大戰後。

Toyota pioneered a new approach

豐田開創了一種新方法

that would fix the inventory problem.

這將解決庫存問題。

It was called the Toyota Production System,

它被稱為豐田生產系統。

or just-in-time production.

或及時生產。

It looks decades to perfect,

看上去幾十年才能完善。

but by the 80's, they were making cars

但到了80年代，他們就開始造車了。

more cheaply than anyone in Detroit.

比底特律的任何人都要便宜。

He became the first manufacturer

他成為第一個製造商

to make 10 million cars a year,

要年產1000萬輛汽車。

all thanks to efficiency of the new system.

這一切都歸功於新系統的效率。

Under the Toyota System, production's continuous

在豐田體系下，生產的連續

and inventory is kept to an absolute minimum.

並將庫存保持在絕對最低的水準。

Components arrive just in time to be assembled,

元器件到貨後，正好可以進行組裝。

and the finished product arrives just in time to be sold.

而成品到達後，正好可以銷售。

It takes a lot of coordination to make that work.

這需要大量的協調工作來實現。

But, if you can do it,

但是，如果你能做到這一點。

you don't need those huge warehouses anymore.

你不需要那些巨大的倉庫了。

Which saves a lot of money in the long term.

這從長遠來看，可以節省很多錢。

Keeping excess inventory down

減少過剩庫存

is particularly important for electronics companies.

對於電子企業來說尤為重要。

Nobody wants last years camera,

沒有人想要去年的相機。

or last years processor in this years phone.

或去年的處理器在今年的手機。

So, excess components are usually just wasted.

所以，多餘的成分通常只是浪費。

And the components that change the fastest

而變化最快的組件

are often the most expensive ones in the phone.

往往是手機中最貴的。

When Tim Cook first came to Apple in 1998,

1998年蒂姆-庫克剛到蘋果公司時。

his main job was moving the company over

他的主要工作是把公司搬過來

to lean, just-in-time manufacturing,

到精益化、準時化生產。

keeping inventory costs as low as possible.

儘可能降低庫存成本；

Fast forward 20 years,

快進20年。

and the entire hardware industry works that way.

而整個硬件行業都是這樣運作的。

But, we know from previous disruptions,

但是，我們從之前的干擾中知道。

that system can be really fragile.

這個系統可能真的很脆弱。

- Okay, so remember the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami

- 好吧，還記得2011年3月的地震和海嘯嗎？

that knocked out the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant?

撞毀福島第一核電站的？

Right, I promise I have a point.

對，我保證我有道理。

As a result of the tsunami,

由於海嘯。

it suddenly became a lot harder

難上加難

to buy cars in certain colors.

來購買某些顏色的汽車。

Here's how that happened.

這就是事情的經過。

There was a plant nearby that made a pigment

附近有一種植物，可以製造一種顏料。

that makes car paint sparkle.

這讓車漆閃閃發光。

It was used by pretty much every car maker.

幾乎所有的汽車製造商都在使用它。

At the time of the tsunami,

在海嘯發生時。

it was the only place in the world that made this pigment.

它是世界上唯一能製造這種顏料的地方。

Also, the site of the pigment stockpile.

另外，顏料儲備的地點。

Suddenly, it was really hard to buy cars

突然間，買車真的很難了

in certain shades of red and black.

在某些深淺不一的紅色和黑色中。

In fact, about 20% of Toyota's inventory

事實上，豐田汽車約有20%的庫存量

was affected by this.

受此影響。

- Under the just-in-time system,

- 在及時制下。

inventories are kept so low that manufacturers

庫存保持在低水平，以至於製造商

don't have anything to fall back on if something goes wrong.

如果出了問題，沒有任何東西可以依靠。

If any one of your suppliers stops shipping,

如果您的任何一家供應商停止發貨。

you have to halt manufacturing

你必須停止生產

until you would find a replacement.

直到你會找到一個替代品。

That's hard enough for a car,

這對一輛車來說已經很難了。

but for something as complex as a smartphone,

但對於智能手機這樣複雜的東西。

there are thousands of parts

千頭萬緒

and dozens of different suppliers.

和幾十家不同的供應商。

The supply chain is bigger than any one company

供應鏈比任何一家公司都要大

or any one country.

或任何一個國家。

Just look at this tear down

看看這個拆遷

iFixit did of the Galaxy S20 Ultra.

iFixit做的Galaxy S20 Ultra。

Samsung is a South Korean company,

三星是一家韓國公司。

and they make a lot of their own parts.

而且他們自己做了很多零件。

But, you also have a ton of Qualcomm chips

但是，你也有大量的高通芯片。

designed in the US and probably fabbed in China.

在美國設計，可能在中國製造。

The Bluetooth module is from Murata,

藍牙模塊是村田公司的。

which is based in Japan.

該公司總部設在日本。

The wifi modules built by Qoryo,

Qoryo打造的wifi模塊。

another US company that's most likely building in China.

另一家美國公司，很可能在中國建設。

That's a really big supply chain,

這是一個非常大的供應鏈。

which is a dangerous thing to have

險象環生

if you're in a global pandemic.

如果你在全球大流行。

Any one of those companies

這些公司中的任何一家

might have to shut down because of the coronavirus.

可能會因為冠狀病毒而不得不關閉。

Either because the factory closes,

要麼是因為工廠倒閉。

or the home offices are so messed up

或者是總部辦公室太亂了

that they can't respond to orders.

他們不能響應命令。

If that happens, Samsung's gonna have

如果這樣的話，三星就會有

a really hard time making this phone.

一個真正的困難時期，使這個手機。

While you might think they have a lot of those chips

雖然你可能認為他們有很多這樣的芯片

stashed away, just in case,

藏起來，以備不時之需。

the logic of lean manufacturing

精益生產的邏輯

and just-in-time production means

和及時生產意味著

they probably have less than you think.

他們可能比你想象的要少。

(light music)

（輕音樂）

At this point, Chinese factories

在這一點上，中國工廠

are starting to open up again.

正在重新開始開放。

But, they're running at half capacity,

但是，他們正在以一半的能力運行。

and it's gonna be a slow process

這將是一個緩慢的過程

getting them back to full strength.

讓他們恢復到滿員狀態。

There's also a natural delay built into the product cycle.

在產品週期中還會有一個自然的延遲。

Apple's new iPad Pro seems to be unaffected

蘋果新iPad Pro似乎不受影響

since those devices went through production

因為這些設備已經投入生產

two months ago.

兩個月前。

But, anything that was planned for release

但是，任何計劃發佈的東西

two months from now is probably running into trouble.

兩個月後可能就會遇到麻煩。

Which is why analysts are so nervous

這也是為什麼分析師們如此緊張的原因

about the next round of iPhones.

關於下一輪的iPhone。

So, we don't know what will happen.

所以，我們不知道會發生什麼。

There's still a chance manufacturers

廠家還是有機會的

will get up to speed in time,

會及時上手的。

but don't be surprised if a lot of

但不要驚訝，如果很多

the big hardware releases of 2020

2020年的硬件大發布

end up getting pushed back.

最終被推倒。

- You remember the paint pigment I was telling you about?

- 你還記得我跟你說的油漆顏料嗎？

So, the factory reopened in May,

於是，工廠在5月份重新開工。

but it took them until September

但他們要等到9月

to catch up on their back orders.

以趕上他們後面的訂單。

But the good news is,

但好消息是。

by 2013, the company that made the pigment,

到2013年，製造顏料的公司。

Merck KGaA, had opened a second factory.

默克公司，已經開設了第二家工廠。

So, now there were two.

所以，現在有兩個。

One in Germany and one in Japan.

一個在德國，一個在日本。

It's not as easy to move the iPhone out of China though.

不過要想把iPhone搬出中國，就沒那麼容易了。

I mean, the iPhone relies on skilled labor.

我的意思是，iPhone依靠的是技術工人。

In 2017, Tim Cook pointed out

2017年，蒂姆-庫克指出

that there are way more tooling engineers in China

中國有更多的模具工程師。

than there are in the US.

比美國有。

The plain fact of the matter is that

樸素的事實是

there aren't a lot of places that Apple can go.

蘋果能去的地方不多。

Just-in-time manufacturing is very efficient.

及時生產效率很高。

But, it's also very fragile.

但是，它也是非常脆弱的。

Resilience doesn't show up as clearly

復原力沒有那麼明顯地表現出來。

on a balance sheet.

在資產負債表上。

But in times of crisis, it might be exactly what we need.

但在危機時期，這也許正是我們所需要的。

- Hey, thanks for watching.

- 嘿，謝謝你的觀看。

Sorry for the shaky camera and the bad sound.

對不起，鏡頭晃動，聲音不好。

We're doing our best.

我們正在盡力。

I know it's a little scary in the world right now,

我知道現在的世界有點可怕。

but yeah, take care of yourself.

但是，是的，照顧好自己。

Wash your hands, and try not to go outside too much

洗手，儘量不要過多的到外面去。

and we'll get through this.

我們會度過這個難關的