have played out on the silver screen for decades,

幾十年來一直在銀幕上上演。

terrifying viewers with quakes that can collapse skyscrapers

震得摩天大樓都快塌了

or topple entire cities.

或推翻整個城市。

Here's what will happen if the big one hits the West Coast.

以下是如果大地震襲擊西海岸會發生什麼。

On July 4, 2019, Ridgecrest, California,

2019年7月4日，加州里奇克斯特。

was hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake

發生6.4級地震

and then a 7.1 just one day later.

然後7.1的僅僅一天後。

But neither of these compare to the long-awaited big one,

但這些都比不上期待已久的大作。

which scientists predict will eventually

科學家預測，這將最終

rattle the golden coast.

撥動黃金海岸。

But when it hits, what will that actually look like?

但是，當它打響的時候，那到底會是什麼樣子呢？

Here's what experts say could happen

專家說可能發生的事情是這樣的

in the seconds, hours, and days after the big one.

在大後的幾秒、幾小時、幾天內。

While experts can't know exactly when a quake will occur,

雖然專家們無法準確知道地震發生的時間。

they have a pretty good idea of where.

他們有一個相當不錯的想法的地方。

California is located in a hot zone of fault lines,

加利福尼亞州位於斷層熱區。

the most notorious of them the San Andreas Fault.

其中最臭名昭著的聖安地列斯斷層。

John Vidale: You know, here in California you have dangers

約翰-維戴爾你知道，在加州，你有危險。

from a number of different kinds of earthquakes.

從一些不同類型的地震。

The major danger is from the earthquakes

主要的危險是來自地震

on the San Andreas Fault system.

在聖安德烈亞斯斷層系統上。

Narrator: On average, the San Andreas Fault

旁白：平均來說，聖安德烈亞斯斷層

ruptures every 150 years.

每150年破裂一次。

The southern parts of the fault have remained inactive

斷層的南部地區一直沒有動靜

for over 200 years.

200多年來，。

Vidale: We haven't had a big earthquake in

維代爾We haven't had a big earthquake in

Southern California really since 1857.

南加州真的自1857年以來。

Narrator: In other words, we're overdue for a major shake.

旁白：換句話說，我們早就該進行一次大的調整了

According to a 2008 federal report,

根據2008年的一份聯邦報告：

the most likely scenario is a 7.8 magnitude quake

最有可能發生的是7.8級地震。

that would rupture a 200-mile stretch

將會使200英里長的道路斷裂。

along the southernmost part of the fault.

沿著斷層的最南端。

Vidale: It's basically moving the ground several yards

維代爾。基本上是把地面移動了好幾碼

over an area of 50 square miles.

在50平方英里的區域內。

So the power of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake

所以7.8級地震的威力。

is probably close to the power

可能接近於功率

used in the whole state for a year.

一年來在全州使用。

Basically something that we as a civilization

基本上，我們作為一個文明的東西

have trouble creating, short of, like, a nuclear explosion.

難以製造，短，如，核爆炸。

Narrator: If you are near the epicenter of the earthquake,

旁白：如果你在震中附近的話

it will be nearly impossible to stand.

將幾乎無法站立。

Vidale: People have this idea of running out of bed,

維代爾人們有這樣的想法，從床上跑下來。

out of their buildings, and that's a terrible idea,

從他們的建築，這是一個可怕的想法。

because a lot of what we see in earthquakes is people

因為我們在地震中看到的很多東西都是人的。

with broken legs and people who've run through glass.

腿斷了的人，還有被玻璃砸中的人。

The best thing to do, like we always say,

最好的辦法，就像我們常說的那樣。

is duck, cover, and hold.

是躲避，掩護，並保持。

Get under some piece of furniture.

躲在某件傢俱下面。

The main point is to protect your head and chest.

主要是保護好自己的頭部和胸部。

Narrator: During and immediately following the shaking,

旁白：在搖晃期間和之後

buildings could collapse.

建築物可能會倒塌。

John Wallace: The number of buildings that were constructed

約翰-華萊士。建築物的數量

before about 1980 is really significant,

在1980年左右之前，真的很重要。

and most of these buildings

而這些建築大多

are very vulnerable to damage and collapse.

是非常容易損壞和倒塌的。

Narrator: In this time-lapse video,

旁白：在這個延時錄像中

you can see how building components would hold up

你可以看到建築構件會如何承受

in a high-magnitude earthquake.

在高震級地震中。

Wallace: 'Cause the San Andreas will produce

華萊士："因為聖安德烈亞斯會產生。

the kind of long-period shaking

長週期震盪

which would be very damaging to very tall buildings,

這對於很高的建築來說，會有很大的損害。

say, in downtown LA, and Century City,

比如說，在洛杉磯市中心，還有世紀城。

and Long Beach, and so forth.

和長灘等地。

Older steel buildings, the connections in them

老舊的鋼結構建築，其中的聯繫

have not necessarily been designed

未必

to withstand the maximum forces

以承受最大的力

that actually can be generated.

實際可以產生的。

Narrator: Unreinforced structures are the least stable,

旁白：未加固的結構是最不穩定的。

but even buildings up to code could crumble.

但即使是符合規範的建築也會倒塌。

John Stewart: The building code, with its

約翰-斯圖爾特。建築法，與它的

minimum requirements, does not ensure that the building

的最低要求，並不能確保建築

will be serviceable after an earthquake.

地震後將可以使用。

It's intended to not kill anybody.

它的目的是不殺任何人。

There's a sense that if it's modern, code-designed,

有一種感覺，如果它是現代的，代碼設計的。

it's earthquake-proof and everything should be great,

這是防震的，一切應該都很好。

but that's not the reality.

但這不是現實。

Narrator: Five steel high-rises

旁白：五座鋼鐵高樓

could collapse completely, while 10 others

可能完全崩潰，而其他10個

will be red-tagged, or unsafe to enter.

將會被貼上紅色標籤，或者不安全進入。

And, no, the quake would not cause a tsunami,

而且，不，地震不會引起海嘯。

despite what movies would have you believe.

儘管電影會讓你相信。

Vidale: To trigger a tsunami, it takes an earthquake

維代爾要引發海嘯，就必鬚髮生地震

that moves the ocean floor,

移動海底。

and most of the San Andreas is on land,

而聖安地列斯山脈的大部分都在陸地上。

so there would be a little bit of waves generated

所以會有一點點的波浪產生。

from a San Andreas earthquake,

從聖安德烈亞斯地震。

but nothing that would be dangerous.

但沒有什麼危險的。

Narrator: The quake could kill about 1,800 people

旁白：地震可能會導致1800人死亡。

and leave 50,000 or more with injuries.

並讓5萬多人受傷。

While people could die from falling debris

雖然人們可能會死於墜落的碎片

and collapsed structures,

和倒塌的結構。

the highest death toll would be from fires.

死亡人數最多的是火災。

Vidale: Historically, they biggest hazard

維代爾。歷史上，他們最大的危害是

from earthquakes has been fire.

從地震一直到火災。

In the 1906 earthquake there were 3,000 or 4,000 people

在1906年的地震中，有三四千人。

who were just caught in that wave of fire

遭殃的人

that swept through the city.

席捲全城的。

Narrator: The aftermath of the big one

旁白：大事件的後果

will wreak havoc on infrastructure and the economy.

將對基礎設施和經濟造成嚴重破壞。

Scott Brandenberg: Below our streets and our buildings

斯科特-布蘭登堡。我們的街道和建築下面

is this really complicated network of infrastructure

是這個真正複雜的基礎設施網絡

that could be damaged, and a lot of the things

可能會被損壞的，以及很多的東西

we take for granted every day

習以為常

won't be available anymore, right?

不會再有了吧？

Like water, electricity,

像水、電。

being able to drive where you need to drive.

能夠在你需要的地方開車。

Narrator: Parts of the San Andreas Fault

旁白：聖安德烈亞斯斷層的一部分

intersect with 39 gas and oil pipelines.

與39條天然氣和石油管道相交。

This could rupture high-pressure gas lines,

這可能會使高壓氣管破裂。

releasing gas into the air

放氣

and igniting potentially deadly explosions.

並點燃可能致命的爆炸物。

Stewart: So, if you have natural-gas lines that rupture,

斯圖爾特。所以，如果你有天然氣管線破裂，

that's how you can get fire and explosions.

這就是你能得到火和爆炸的原因。

Narrator: And after the fires burn out,

旁白：在大火燒盡之後

one of the biggest concerns in a major earthquake

大地震時最擔心的問題之一

is access to fresh water.

是獲得淡水。

The major aqueduct networks

主要水渠網

that pump water into Southern California

向南加州抽水

all cross the San Andreas Fault

橫貫聖安地列斯斷層

and could be seriously damaged.

並可能受到嚴重損害。

Stewart: So we would be without the lifelines

斯圖爾特。所以，我們將沒有生命線

that bring in imported water to the region.

為該地區帶來進口水的。

They cross through tunnels,

他們穿過隧道。

cross through aqueducts near the surface.

通過靠近地表的輸水管道穿過。

All of these would be ruptured,

這些都會破裂。

and so we would be losing 60% of our water supply.

是以，我們將失去60%的水供應。

Many of these distribution lines for water

許多這些水的分配管道

are near sewer lines, which would also be broken,

是靠近汙水管道，也會被破壞。

so now you have a situation where contaminants

所以現在你有一個情況下，汙染物

are potentially getting into the water supply.

有可能進入供水系統。

Narrator: Experts say you should keep

旁白：專家說你應該保持

at least a two-week supply of water in your home.

至少兩週的家庭供水量。

As the ground shakes and sediments shift,

隨著地動山搖，沉積物轉移。

there will be landslides throughout Ventura

文圖拉地區將出現山體滑坡

and Western Los Angeles County.

和西洛杉磯縣。

Brandenberg: There could be thousands of landslides.

布蘭登堡。可能會有成千上萬的山體滑坡

There have been earthquakes that have produced thousands.

有的地震產生了上千。

Landslides definitely can cause fatalities, property damage.

山體滑坡肯定會造成人員死亡、財產損失。

We have a lot of people who live up in the hills. Right?

我們有很多人誰住在山上。對吧？

So that's the location where you would be likely

所以，這是你可能會的位置。

to see landslides affecting people.

看到山體滑坡影響人們。

Narrator: And finally, the big one

旁白：最後，最重要的是

will severely impact the economy.

將嚴重影響經濟。

Major transportation networks, like highways and railways,

主要交通網絡，如高速公路和鐵路。

could be unusable for weeks and even months.

可能幾周甚至幾個月都無法使用。

Brandenberg: Some bridges may not be passable

勃蘭登堡。有些橋可能無法通行

after an earthquake.

地震發生後，。

We've had bridges collapse during past earthquakes.

在過去的地震中，我們有橋樑倒塌。

Stewart: You might start seeing

斯圖爾特：你可能會開始看到

key industries leave, population loss,

重點產業離開，人口流失。

and this could have, you know,

這可能有，你知道，

devastating long-term impacts for the region.

對該地區造成長期的破壞性影響。

Narrator: The estimated financial cost

旁白：估計的財務成本

of the big one is a whopping $200 billion,

的大，高達2000億美元。

with $33 billion in building damages

損失330億美元的建築物

and $50 billion in lost economic activity.

和500億美元的經濟活動損失。

This all sounds pretty bad, but keep in mind

這一切聽起來很糟糕，但請記住

that this is based off of a worst-case scenario.

這是基於最壞情況的設想。

The true impact of a major earthquake

大地震的真實影響

is based on a range of unknowable factors.

是基於一系列不可知的因素。

Also, smaller earthquakes on faults

另外，斷層上的小地震

directly beneath major population centers

在主要人口中心的正下方

are a serious concern.

是一個嚴重的問題。

Vidale: But the worst-case earthquakes

維代爾。但最壞的情況下的地震

are hard to predict.

是很難預測的。

You know, that earthquake in Japan in 2011,

你知道，2011年日本的那場地震。

their cost almost entirely came

其成本幾乎全部來自

because their nuclear power plant melted down.

因為他們的核電站融化了。

It's very hard to predict what's gonna fail

很難預料什麼會失敗。

in a big earthquake.

在大地震中。

Narrator: So, how can Californians

旁白：那麼，加州人如何才能

prepare for the big one?

準備大幹一場？

Brandenberg: Really have a plan in place.

布蘭登堡。真的有一個計劃。

You know, where are you going to meet?

你知道，你們要在哪裡見面？

What are you going to do?

你要做什麼？

Have water ready.

準備好水。

I have a 55-gallon drum full of water.

我有一個55加侖的桶，裡面裝滿了水。

There's some chemical additive I put in it

我在裡面加了一些化學添加劑。

so it's potable for five years.

所以它的飲用水五年。

Fifty-five gallons is the right amount for my...

五十五加侖對我的... ...

I have a family of four.

我有一個四口之家。

That'll last us for two weeks.

這將持續我們兩個星期。

Canned food.

罐頭食品；

You know, you have to be ready.

你知道，你必須做好準備。

I would say it's best just to plan

我想說的是，最好的辦法就是計劃好了

to stay sort of where you are.

留在那種你在哪裡。

Getting out of LA is bad enough

離開洛杉磯已經夠糟了

without an earthquake, right?

沒有地震，對吧？

Traffic's already terrible.

交通已經很糟糕了。

If roads are closed and people are all trying to leave,

如果道路封閉，人們都想離開。

it's gonna really be bad.

這會是真的很糟糕。