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  • Catastrophic earthquake scenarios

    災難性地震場景

  • have played out on the silver screen for decades,

    幾十年來一直在銀幕上上演。

  • terrifying viewers with quakes that can collapse skyscrapers

    震得摩天大樓都快塌了

  • or topple entire cities.

    或推翻整個城市。

  • Here's what will happen if the big one hits the West Coast.

    以下是如果大地震襲擊西海岸會發生什麼。

  • On July 4, 2019, Ridgecrest, California,

    2019年7月4日,加州里奇克斯特。

  • was hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake

    發生6.4級地震

  • and then a 7.1 just one day later.

    然後7.1的僅僅一天後。

  • But neither of these compare to the long-awaited big one,

    但這些都比不上期待已久的大作。

  • which scientists predict will eventually

    科學家預測,這將最終

  • rattle the golden coast.

    撥動黃金海岸。

  • But when it hits, what will that actually look like?

    但是,當它打響的時候,那到底會是什麼樣子呢?

  • Here's what experts say could happen

    專家說可能發生的事情是這樣的

  • in the seconds, hours, and days after the big one.

    在大後的幾秒、幾小時、幾天內。

  • While experts can't know exactly when a quake will occur,

    雖然專家們無法準確知道地震發生的時間。

  • they have a pretty good idea of where.

    他們有一個相當不錯的想法的地方。

  • California is located in a hot zone of fault lines,

    加利福尼亞州位於斷層熱區。

  • the most notorious of them the San Andreas Fault.

    其中最臭名昭著的聖安地列斯斷層。

  • John Vidale: You know, here in California you have dangers

    約翰-維戴爾你知道,在加州,你有危險。

  • from a number of different kinds of earthquakes.

    從一些不同類型的地震。

  • The major danger is from the earthquakes

    主要的危險是來自地震

  • on the San Andreas Fault system.

    在聖安德烈亞斯斷層系統上。

  • Narrator: On average, the San Andreas Fault

    旁白:平均來說,聖安德烈亞斯斷層

  • ruptures every 150 years.

    每150年破裂一次。

  • The southern parts of the fault have remained inactive

    斷層的南部地區一直沒有動靜

  • for over 200 years.

    200多年來,。

  • Vidale: We haven't had a big earthquake in

    維代爾We haven't had a big earthquake in

  • Southern California really since 1857.

    南加州真的自1857年以來。

  • Narrator: In other words, we're overdue for a major shake.

    旁白:換句話說,我們早就該進行一次大的調整了

  • According to a 2008 federal report,

    根據2008年的一份聯邦報告:

  • the most likely scenario is a 7.8 magnitude quake

    最有可能發生的是7.8級地震。

  • that would rupture a 200-mile stretch

    將會使200英里長的道路斷裂。

  • along the southernmost part of the fault.

    沿著斷層的最南端。

  • Vidale: It's basically moving the ground several yards

    維代爾。基本上是把地面移動了好幾碼

  • over an area of 50 square miles.

    在50平方英里的區域內。

  • So the power of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake

    所以7.8級地震的威力。

  • is probably close to the power

    可能接近於功率

  • used in the whole state for a year.

    一年來在全州使用。

  • Basically something that we as a civilization

    基本上,我們作為一個文明的東西

  • have trouble creating, short of, like, a nuclear explosion.

    難以製造,短,如,核爆炸。

  • Narrator: If you are near the epicenter of the earthquake,

    旁白:如果你在震中附近的話

  • it will be nearly impossible to stand.

    將幾乎無法站立。

  • Vidale: People have this idea of running out of bed,

    維代爾人們有這樣的想法,從床上跑下來。

  • out of their buildings, and that's a terrible idea,

    從他們的建築,這是一個可怕的想法。

  • because a lot of what we see in earthquakes is people

    因為我們在地震中看到的很多東西都是人的。

  • with broken legs and people who've run through glass.

    腿斷了的人,還有被玻璃砸中的人。

  • The best thing to do, like we always say,

    最好的辦法,就像我們常說的那樣。

  • is duck, cover, and hold.

    是躲避,掩護,並保持。

  • Get under some piece of furniture.

    躲在某件傢俱下面。

  • The main point is to protect your head and chest.

    主要是保護好自己的頭部和胸部。

  • Narrator: During and immediately following the shaking,

    旁白:在搖晃期間和之後

  • buildings could collapse.

    建築物可能會倒塌。

  • John Wallace: The number of buildings that were constructed

    約翰-華萊士。建築物的數量

  • before about 1980 is really significant,

    在1980年左右之前,真的很重要。

  • and most of these buildings

    而這些建築大多

  • are very vulnerable to damage and collapse.

    是非常容易損壞和倒塌的。

  • Narrator: In this time-lapse video,

    旁白:在這個延時錄像中

  • you can see how building components would hold up

    你可以看到建築構件會如何承受

  • in a high-magnitude earthquake.

    在高震級地震中。

  • Wallace: 'Cause the San Andreas will produce

    華萊士:"因為聖安德烈亞斯會產生。

  • the kind of long-period shaking

    長週期震盪

  • which would be very damaging to very tall buildings,

    這對於很高的建築來說,會有很大的損害。

  • say, in downtown LA, and Century City,

    比如說,在洛杉磯市中心,還有世紀城。

  • and Long Beach, and so forth.

    和長灘等地。

  • Older steel buildings, the connections in them

    老舊的鋼結構建築,其中的聯繫

  • have not necessarily been designed

    未必

  • to withstand the maximum forces

    以承受最大的力

  • that actually can be generated.

    實際可以產生的。

  • Narrator: Unreinforced structures are the least stable,

    旁白:未加固的結構是最不穩定的。

  • but even buildings up to code could crumble.

    但即使是符合規範的建築也會倒塌。

  • John Stewart: The building code, with its

    約翰-斯圖爾特。建築法,與它的

  • minimum requirements, does not ensure that the building

    的最低要求,並不能確保建築

  • will be serviceable after an earthquake.

    地震後將可以使用。

  • It's intended to not kill anybody.

    它的目的是不殺任何人。

  • There's a sense that if it's modern, code-designed,

    有一種感覺,如果它是現代的,代碼設計的。

  • it's earthquake-proof and everything should be great,

    這是防震的,一切應該都很好。

  • but that's not the reality.

    但這不是現實。

  • Narrator: Five steel high-rises

    旁白:五座鋼鐵高樓

  • could collapse completely, while 10 others

    可能完全崩潰,而其他10個

  • will be red-tagged, or unsafe to enter.

    將會被貼上紅色標籤,或者不安全進入。

  • And, no, the quake would not cause a tsunami,

    而且,不,地震不會引起海嘯。

  • despite what movies would have you believe.

    儘管電影會讓你相信。

  • Vidale: To trigger a tsunami, it takes an earthquake

    維代爾要引發海嘯,就必鬚髮生地震

  • that moves the ocean floor,

    移動海底。

  • and most of the San Andreas is on land,

    而聖安地列斯山脈的大部分都在陸地上。

  • so there would be a little bit of waves generated

    所以會有一點點的波浪產生。

  • from a San Andreas earthquake,

    從聖安德烈亞斯地震。

  • but nothing that would be dangerous.

    但沒有什麼危險的。

  • Narrator: The quake could kill about 1,800 people

    旁白:地震可能會導致1800人死亡。

  • and leave 50,000 or more with injuries.

    並讓5萬多人受傷。

  • While people could die from falling debris

    雖然人們可能會死於墜落的碎片

  • and collapsed structures,

    和倒塌的結構。

  • the highest death toll would be from fires.

    死亡人數最多的是火災。

  • Vidale: Historically, they biggest hazard

    維代爾。歷史上,他們最大的危害是

  • from earthquakes has been fire.

    從地震一直到火災。

  • In the 1906 earthquake there were 3,000 or 4,000 people

    在1906年的地震中,有三四千人。

  • who were just caught in that wave of fire

    遭殃的人

  • that swept through the city.

    席捲全城的。

  • Narrator: The aftermath of the big one

    旁白:大事件的後果

  • will wreak havoc on infrastructure and the economy.

    將對基礎設施和經濟造成嚴重破壞。

  • Scott Brandenberg: Below our streets and our buildings

    斯科特-布蘭登堡。我們的街道和建築下面

  • is this really complicated network of infrastructure

    是這個真正複雜的基礎設施網絡

  • that could be damaged, and a lot of the things

    可能會被損壞的,以及很多的東西

  • we take for granted every day

    習以為常

  • won't be available anymore, right?

    不會再有了吧?

  • Like water, electricity,

    像水、電。

  • being able to drive where you need to drive.

    能夠在你需要的地方開車。

  • Narrator: Parts of the San Andreas Fault

    旁白:聖安德烈亞斯斷層的一部分

  • intersect with 39 gas and oil pipelines.

    與39條天然氣和石油管道相交。

  • This could rupture high-pressure gas lines,

    這可能會使高壓氣管破裂。

  • releasing gas into the air

    放氣

  • and igniting potentially deadly explosions.

    並點燃可能致命的爆炸物。

  • Stewart: So, if you have natural-gas lines that rupture,

    斯圖爾特。所以,如果你有天然氣管線破裂,

  • that's how you can get fire and explosions.

    這就是你能得到火和爆炸的原因。

  • Narrator: And after the fires burn out,

    旁白:在大火燒盡之後

  • one of the biggest concerns in a major earthquake

    大地震時最擔心的問題之一

  • is access to fresh water.

    是獲得淡水。

  • The major aqueduct networks

    主要水渠網

  • that pump water into Southern California

    向南加州抽水

  • all cross the San Andreas Fault

    橫貫聖安地列斯斷層

  • and could be seriously damaged.

    並可能受到嚴重損害。

  • Stewart: So we would be without the lifelines

    斯圖爾特。所以,我們將沒有生命線

  • that bring in imported water to the region.

    為該地區帶來進口水的。

  • They cross through tunnels,

    他們穿過隧道。

  • cross through aqueducts near the surface.

    通過靠近地表的輸水管道穿過。

  • All of these would be ruptured,

    這些都會破裂。

  • and so we would be losing 60% of our water supply.

    是以,我們將失去60%的水供應。

  • Many of these distribution lines for water

    許多這些水的分配管道

  • are near sewer lines, which would also be broken,

    是靠近汙水管道,也會被破壞。

  • so now you have a situation where contaminants

    所以現在你有一個情況下,汙染物

  • are potentially getting into the water supply.

    有可能進入供水系統。

  • Narrator: Experts say you should keep

    旁白:專家說你應該保持

  • at least a two-week supply of water in your home.

    至少兩週的家庭供水量。

  • As the ground shakes and sediments shift,

    隨著地動山搖,沉積物轉移。

  • there will be landslides throughout Ventura

    文圖拉地區將出現山體滑坡

  • and Western Los Angeles County.

    和西洛杉磯縣。

  • Brandenberg: There could be thousands of landslides.

    布蘭登堡。可能會有成千上萬的山體滑坡

  • There have been earthquakes that have produced thousands.

    有的地震產生了上千。

  • Landslides definitely can cause fatalities, property damage.

    山體滑坡肯定會造成人員死亡、財產損失。

  • We have a lot of people who live up in the hills. Right?

    我們有很多人誰住在山上。對吧?

  • So that's the location where you would be likely

    所以,這是你可能會的位置。

  • to see landslides affecting people.

    看到山體滑坡影響人們。

  • Narrator: And finally, the big one

    旁白:最後,最重要的是

  • will severely impact the economy.

    將嚴重影響經濟。

  • Major transportation networks, like highways and railways,

    主要交通網絡,如高速公路和鐵路。

  • could be unusable for weeks and even months.

    可能幾周甚至幾個月都無法使用。

  • Brandenberg: Some bridges may not be passable

    勃蘭登堡。有些橋可能無法通行

  • after an earthquake.

    地震發生後,。

  • We've had bridges collapse during past earthquakes.

    在過去的地震中,我們有橋樑倒塌。

  • Stewart: You might start seeing

    斯圖爾特:你可能會開始看到

  • key industries leave, population loss,

    重點產業離開,人口流失。

  • and this could have, you know,

    這可能有,你知道,

  • devastating long-term impacts for the region.

    對該地區造成長期的破壞性影響。

  • Narrator: The estimated financial cost

    旁白:估計的財務成本

  • of the big one is a whopping $200 billion,

    的大,高達2000億美元。

  • with $33 billion in building damages

    損失330億美元的建築物

  • and $50 billion in lost economic activity.

    和500億美元的經濟活動損失。

  • This all sounds pretty bad, but keep in mind

    這一切聽起來很糟糕,但請記住

  • that this is based off of a worst-case scenario.

    這是基於最壞情況的設想。

  • The true impact of a major earthquake

    大地震的真實影響

  • is based on a range of unknowable factors.

    是基於一系列不可知的因素。

  • Also, smaller earthquakes on faults

    另外,斷層上的小地震

  • directly beneath major population centers

    在主要人口中心的正下方

  • are a serious concern.

    是一個嚴重的問題。

  • Vidale: But the worst-case earthquakes

    維代爾。但最壞的情況下的地震

  • are hard to predict.

    是很難預測的。

  • You know, that earthquake in Japan in 2011,

    你知道,2011年日本的那場地震。

  • their cost almost entirely came

    其成本幾乎全部來自

  • because their nuclear power plant melted down.

    因為他們的核電站融化了。

  • It's very hard to predict what's gonna fail

    很難預料什麼會失敗。

  • in a big earthquake.

    在大地震中。

  • Narrator: So, how can Californians

    旁白:那麼,加州人如何才能

  • prepare for the big one?

    準備大幹一場?

  • Brandenberg: Really have a plan in place.

    布蘭登堡。真的有一個計劃。

  • You know, where are you going to meet?

    你知道,你們要在哪裡見面?

  • What are you going to do?

    你要做什麼?

  • Have water ready.

    準備好水。

  • I have a 55-gallon drum full of water.

    我有一個55加侖的桶,裡面裝滿了水。

  • There's some chemical additive I put in it

    我在裡面加了一些化學添加劑。

  • so it's potable for five years.

    所以它的飲用水五年。

  • Fifty-five gallons is the right amount for my...

    五十五加侖對我的... ...

  • I have a family of four.

    我有一個四口之家。

  • That'll last us for two weeks.

    這將持續我們兩個星期。

  • Canned food.

    罐頭食品;

  • You know, you have to be ready.

    你知道,你必須做好準備。

  • I would say it's best just to plan

    我想說的是,最好的辦法就是計劃好了

  • to stay sort of where you are.

    留在那種你在哪裡。

  • Getting out of LA is bad enough

    離開洛杉磯已經夠糟了

  • without an earthquake, right?

    沒有地震,對吧?

  • Traffic's already terrible.

    交通已經很糟糕了。

  • If roads are closed and people are all trying to leave,

    如果道路封閉,人們都想離開。

  • it's gonna really be bad.

    這會是真的很糟糕。

Catastrophic earthquake scenarios

災難性地震場景

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