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  • It's been five years since Russia entered the war in Syria in support of President Bashar al Assad, tipping the balance in favor off the regime.

    自俄羅斯加入敘利亞戰爭支持總統巴沙爾-阿薩德以來,已經五年了,使天平偏離了政權。

  • Assad forces, assisted by Russia and Iran, now control most of the country.

    阿薩德部隊在俄羅斯和伊朗的協助下,目前控制了該國大部分地區。

  • Kurdish forces still hold the northeast, but have signed a deal with Assad.

    庫爾德武裝仍然控制著東北部地區,但已經與阿薩德簽訂了協議。

  • Idlib in the northwest, is the last remaining province under rebel control.

    西北部的伊德利卜,是叛軍控制下的最後一個省份。

  • With Turkey's support, a cease fire for Idlib came into effect in March of this year, but government and Russian airstrikes are increasing again on many in it lived fear a decisive battle for the province.

    在土耳其的支持下,伊德利卜的停火於今年3月生效,但政府和俄羅斯的空襲再次增加,對許多在它生活的恐懼決定性戰鬥的省份。

  • I could start soon, the W's Birgitta Sulka reports.

    我可以很快開始,W的Birgitta Sulka報道。

  • Even when he's making tea, plane spotter Abu Mazen's focuses on the job not to miss a single military plane taking off from the basis controlled by the Assad regime.

    即便是在泡茶的時候,飛機觀測員阿布-馬讚的專注工作,也不會錯過任何一架從阿薩德政權控制的基地起飛的軍用飛機。

  • Theo, 41 year old, has set up a many listening station to follow Syrian and Russian radio communications at a secret location for security reasons.

    41歲的西奧出於安全考慮,在一個祕密地點設立了許多監聽站,跟蹤敘利亞和俄羅斯的無線電通訊。

  • Along with other volunteers, he monitors all air traffic over Idlib around the clock waken listen in to the pilots radio communications and find out his destination so we know where the bombs might fall e.

    和其他志願者一起,他晝夜監控伊德利卜上空的所有空中交通,並監聽飛行員的無線電通訊,找出他的目的地,以便我們知道炸彈可能落在哪裡。

  • Do this work for civilians.

    為平民做這項工作。

  • If we can warn them, we can save lives way for as soon as he spots anything, Abouhossein warns.

    如果我們能警告他們,我們可以拯救生命的方式,只要他發現任何東西,Abouhossein警告。

  • Local civilians, hospitals sent first responders using radio and other networks.

    當地老百姓、醫院利用無線電和其他網絡派出急救人員。

  • He says the number off air raids on Idlib has risen significantly in recent weeks, although the ceasefire agreement is still in effect.

    他說,最近幾周對伊德利卜的空襲次數顯著增加,儘管停火協議仍然有效。

  • Back about my health.

    回到我的健康問題。

  • My biggest fear is that the Russian Air Force will bomb ID Lib City because it is so densely populated.

    我最擔心的是,俄羅斯空軍會轟炸ID解放城,因為那裡人口太密集了。

  • Yeah, in recent weeks, the bombs, sometimes more than 20 day, have mainly targeted less populated areas.

    是啊,最近幾周,炸彈,有時超過20天,主要針對人口較少的地區。

  • But there's growing concern that a sudden his forces are set to launch a new offensive, also targeting hospitals and schools in a similar way to the beginning of the year, when attacks flattened the small town off Katharine Neuron.

    但越來越多的人擔心,突然他的部隊將發動新的攻勢,目標也是醫院和學校,類似於年初襲擊夷平凱瑟琳-紐倫附近的小城。

  • Many families have since returned home, but Halladay Hallett, from the local council, has no idea how they'll survive the coming winter.

    此後,許多家庭都回到了家中,但來自當地議會的哈勒迪-哈勒特卻不知道如何度過即將到來的冬天。

  • Water supplies hospitals, electricity generators have all been destroyed and covered.

    供水醫院、發電機都已被摧毀和覆蓋。

  • 19 infections are on the rise way.

    19感染率上升的方式。

  • Can't quarantine people to protect them from the coronavirus.

    不能為了防止冠狀病毒而把人隔離起來。

  • They've got to work to feed their families.

    他們必須工作才能養家餬口。

  • Way would need support from relief agencies in our town, but no one has shown up.

    方式需要我們鎮上的救援機構的支持,但沒有人出現。

  • Hundreds of thousands of people have sought refuge in the sprawling camps off northern Italy province here to conditions are appalling, but there's at least some support from relief organizations.

    數十萬人在意大利北部省外的龐大難民營中尋求避難,這裡的條件令人震驚,但至少有一些救援組織的支持。

  • Farmer Ahmad Sulaiman is among those who desperately need that support.

    農民艾哈邁德-蘇萊曼是迫切需要這種支持的人之一。

  • A year ago, his house was destroyed in an air raid.

    一年前,他的房子在一次空襲中被摧毀。

  • One of his sons was killed.

    他的一個兒子被殺。

  • Ahmed lost both legs.

    艾哈邁德失去了雙腿。

  • He's grateful for the 10th they were given, but he's anxious about the winter that lies ahead.

    他很感激他們得到的第10個,但他對未來的冬天感到焦慮。

  • I'm disabled.

    我是個殘障人士

  • I can't walk at all.

    我根本走不動。

  • We've got no income.

    我們沒有收入。

  • Nothing at all.

    什麼都沒有。

  • Max Ahmed says his wife left him because she could no longer bear the gloom and the misery in the tent.

    馬克斯-艾哈邁德說,他的妻子離開了他,因為她再也無法忍受帳篷裡的陰暗和痛苦。

  • Since then, his sister has been looking after him and the three Children.

    從此,他的姐姐就一直在照顧他和三個孩子。

  • They've never known anything but war never been to school s Children are very bad shape.

    他們除了戰爭什麼都不知道,也沒上過學 孩子們的狀況很不好。

  • They don't listen to me, especially the eldest is driving us crazy.

    他們不聽我的,特別是大兒子都快把我們逼瘋了。

  • They just want their mother back.

    他們只是想讓母親回來。

  • So what does the future hold?

    那麼,未來會怎樣呢?

  • How could they possibly keep going?

    他們怎麼可能繼續下去?

  • What will they do for heating when winter sets in?

    入冬後,他們將如何供暖?

  • What about the coronavirus?

    那冠狀病毒呢?

  • and where can they go next?

    他們下一步能去哪裡?

  • If Assad's forced to start a new offensive, Too many questions and no answers.

    如果阿薩德被迫發動新的攻勢,問題太多,沒有答案。

  • Za bringing Daniel Gerlach form.

    Za帶來了Daniel Gerlach的形式。

  • Or on this he's a Middle East analyst and editor in chief of Zenith magazine, which focuses on the region.

    或者在這上面,他是中東地區的分析師,也是專注於該地區的《Zenith》雜誌的主編。

  • Welcome to D.

    歡迎來到D。

  • W.

    W.

  • Let's start with the humanitarian situation.

    先說說人道主義局勢。

  • How many people are there in rebel held areas of Idlib?

    伊德利卜的叛軍控制區有多少人?

  • On what are conditions like for them?

    關於他們的條件是怎樣的?

  • Well, the conditions have been illustrated quite drastically in the report and then the reports of the relief organizations.

    好吧,報告和救濟組織的報告都已經很清楚地說明了這些情況。

  • Um, it's very difficult to give accurate numbers at the moment about rebel controlled areas, Turkish controlled areas, because the front line has been shifting.

    嗯,這是非常困難的 給出準確的數字 在目前關於叛軍控制區, 土耳其控制區, 因為前線一直在移動。

  • And there's also a different areas that are under control of different rebel organizations, of course, but we have to see that there is about maybe two million people that are exposed toe military operations to the threat off increase of bombings.

    當然,也有不同的地區 在不同的叛亂組織的控制下, 但我們必須看到,有大約200萬人 暴露在軍事行動的威脅 關閉增加的轟炸。

  • And of course, this is a very difficult situation that Libyans have been living with for quite some time.

    當然,這也是利比亞人在相當長一段時間內一直生活的一個非常困難的局面。

  • Although the yes, so e was going to say it s we've heard the fears in the report that the Syrian government is looking likely.

    雖然是的,所以e打算說它s我們已經聽到了報告中的恐懼,敘利亞政府正在尋找可能。

  • Thio, try and retake.

    Thio,嘗試和重新採取。

  • Um Idlib.

    嗯,伊德利布。

  • Are they actually in a position to be able to do that?

    他們是否真的有能力做到這一點?

  • I doubt that.

    我對此表示懷疑。

  • To be honest, I think it is absolutely possible that we will see an increase of military operations, aerial operations, artillery shelling.

    說實話,我認為我們絕對有可能看到軍事行動、空中行動、炮擊的增加。

  • We've seen exchanges in the last couple of days.

    我們看到這幾天的交流。

  • Also rebels targeting regime held areas and regime troops.

    還有反叛分子以政權控制區和政權部隊為目標。

  • But it would be quite untypical for the Syrian regime and the Russians to try a large ground operation.

    但敘利亞政權和俄羅斯人嘗試大規模的地面行動是很不尋常的。

  • Now that winter is approaching.

    現在,冬天快到了。

  • Also in light of the pandemic that is savagely savagely, uh, going after Syrians all across the country, of course, Syrians are exposed to the coronavirus.

    同時鑑於這場大流行病,正在野蠻地,呃,在全國各地追殺敘利亞人,當然,敘利亞人也會接觸到冠狀病毒。

  • We don't have official numbers, and the regime seems to be playing that down.

    我們沒有官方數字,而政權似乎在淡化這一點。

  • But it's a very, very serious threat in Syria at the moment.

    但目前在敘利亞,這是一個非常非常嚴重的威脅。

  • So I doubt that there would be a major ground operation.

    所以我懷疑會不會有大規模的地面行動。

  • But I think there is another rather cynical and geopolitical aspect of it.

    但我認為還有一個相當玩世不恭和地緣政治的方面。

  • Um, if Russia should decide to increase its pressure to start a bombing campaign over it like this would not be so much to reestablish Syrian regime control over it look.

    嗯,如果俄羅斯應該決定加大壓力,對其展開轟炸行動,像這樣是不是就可以重新建立敘利亞政權對它的控制了看。

  • But to put pressure on Turkey, which is now of course, very busy with the military escalation.

    但是為了給土耳其施加壓力,當然現在土耳其非常忙於軍事升級。

  • The caucuses with Turkey is supporting Azerbaijan, Andi, Russia supporting Armenia on the other side and we should not forget that There's also other conflict scenarios in Libya, in the eastern Mediterranean and quite typically, Russia has been using this card, increasing military pressure in Syria and whenever, whenever it was suitable to force Turkey into some sort of a compromise.

    與土耳其的核心小組是支持阿塞拜疆,安迪,俄羅斯支持亞美尼亞的另一邊,我們不應該忘記,在利比亞,在地中海東部也有其他衝突情況,很典型的是,俄羅斯一直在使用這張牌,在敘利亞增加軍事壓力,無論何時,只要是合適的,就會迫使土耳其做出某種妥協。

  • And I think this is not so much about reestablishing regime control over it.

    而我認為這並不是說要重新建立對它的政權控制。

  • Lip though, of course this would be President Assad's ultimate goal on he would try to attempt this before next year's presidential election.

    利普雖然,當然這將是阿薩德總統的最終目標上他會試圖在明年的總統選舉前嘗試這。

  • But I think what the Russians have in mind here is something very different.

    但我認為俄羅斯人在這裡的想法是非常不同的。

  • Okay, so it's obviously it's it's quite a complicated situation, but it does sound just looking at the Russian involvement in this conflict that Russia is moving to its own agenda on it has its own goals that it, it is looking thio achieve in the era.

    好吧,所以這顯然是... ...這是一個相當複雜的情況, 但它聽起來只是看 俄羅斯參與這場衝突, 俄羅斯正在移動到自己的議程上,

  • Not necessarily, um Thio buttress that the Syrian regime yeah, which could be in line with the agenda of the Syrian regime of the Russian foreign minister.

    不一定,嗯,Thio對接,敘利亞政權是的,這可能與俄羅斯外長的敘利亞政權的議程一致。

  • Lavrov has traveled recently with a pretty high ranking delegation to Damascus to give us that.

    拉夫羅夫最近帶著一個相當高級別的代表團前往大馬士革,給我們。

  • I think some reinsurance reassurance, but also to try toe like to develop some sort of a political vision for the future of Syria, because the Russians have been now present in Syria, that the military of firepower for five years, but in fact they haven't really.

    我認為一些再保險的保證,但也要試著去像為敘利亞的未來發展某種政治願景,因為俄羅斯人現在已經在敘利亞存在了五年的火力軍事,但事實上他們並沒有真正。

  • They have saved the Syrian regime and they have.

    他們拯救了敘利亞政權,他們已經。

  • They have gained leverage in the Middle East, but they haven't really found a political solution which I think they are still interested in presenting.

    他們在中東獲得了籌碼,但他們還沒有真正找到政治解決方案,我想他們還是有興趣提出的。

  • I think the Russians want to keep, of course, military control, and there's actually no question that they want to force rebel held areas into submission.

    我想俄羅斯人當然是想保持軍事控制,其實毫無疑問,他們想迫使叛軍控制區屈服。

  • But on the other hand, they see that Syria needs some sort of a solution on authoritarians solution, of course, at Russian gusto.

    但另一方面,他們看到,敘利亞需要某種關於專制主義解決方案的解決方案,當然,在俄羅斯的氣勢。

  • But, uh, that needs to be political progress in light of the upcoming presidential election.

    但是,呃,鑑於即將到來的總統選舉,這需要政治上的進步。

  • And so the Russians are engaged and try to involve the United Nations.

    所以俄羅斯人参與進來,試圖讓聯合國參與進來。

  • They It was the idea to bring together some sort of a constitutional committee with Syrians from regime held areas and from the opposition toe, create some compromise and find some sort of a perspective.

    他們的想法是,把來自政權控制區的敘利亞人和來自反對派的敘利亞人聚集在一起,成立一個憲法委員會,創造一些妥協,找到某種觀點。

  • And they haven't been very successful of this so far.

    而且到目前為止,他們在這方面還不是很成功。

  • So I think Russia will remain involved militarily and politically, but sometimes for very different goals.

    所以,我認為俄羅斯會繼續在軍事和政治上參與,但有時是為了截然不同的目標。

  • Good talking to you.

    很高興與你交談。

  • It's very clear as ever.

    它非常清楚的一如既往。

  • Daniel Girl from Zenith magazine.

    丹尼爾女孩從Zenith雜誌。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你了

It's been five years since Russia entered the war in Syria in support of President Bashar al Assad, tipping the balance in favor off the regime.

自俄羅斯加入敘利亞戰爭支持總統巴沙爾-阿薩德以來,已經五年了,使天平偏離了政權。

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敘利亞伊德利卜省擔心重新發動軍事進攻|DW新聞網 (Syria’s Idlib province fears renewed military offensive | DW News)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 10 月 23 日
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