Name: 大衛-華萊士-韋爾斯的氣候災難的邊緣。 (The Brink of Climate Catastrophe with David Wallace-Wells)
Uploaded: 2020-10-19T19:51:19.000Z
Duration: 6 min 46 s

I'm not somebody who has lived in this world my whole life.

我不是一個在這個世界上生活了一輩子的人。

I'm not somebody who's been committed to the cause of climate change.

我不是一個一直致力於氣候變化事業的人。

Even throughout my adult life, I've always lived in cities, in fact, always lived in New York City.

即使在我的成年生活中，我一直生活在城市裡，事實上，一直生活在紐約市。

Andi always understood myself to be, you know, like a good liberal person concerned about the future of the planet.

安迪一直認為自己是一個好的自由主義者，你知道，就像一個關心地球未來的人。

But I also felt that my life was sort of being conducted outside of nature and that in the future many more lives would be, um, conducted outside of nature.

但我也感覺到，我的生命算是在自然界之外進行的，未來還有更多的生命會在自然界之外，嗯，進行。

And so, while I was worried about the threat from climate change, I was worried about it in a kind of trivial way until relatively recently.

所以，雖然我很擔心氣候變化的威脅，但直到最近，我才以一種微不足道的方式擔心它。

That changed about two or three years ago when, because of my existing interest in the kind of near future, I started reading a lot of quite alarming scientific papers about what was possible with climate change.

這種情況大約在兩三年前發生了變化，因為我對那種不久的將來的興趣，我開始讀到很多相當令人震驚的科學論文，關於氣候變化的可能性。

And as a journalist myself, I watched as those same reports and others like them were covered in newspapers and magazines and on television in ways that seemed to me quite divergent from the rial findings of the research itself.

作為一名記者，我看到報紙、雜誌和電視對這些報告和其他類似的報告進行了報道，而這些報道的方式在我看來與研究本身的結論大相徑庭。

I thought there were basically three big misapprehensions that the public, even the kind of engaged public of which I was a member, had about climate change.

我認為，公眾，甚至是我所參與的那種公眾，對氣候變化基本上有三大誤解。

The first was that we had been taught to expect that climate change was very, very slow, that it was something that would be unfolding on a timescale of decades at the fastest and probably more like centuries.

首先是我們一直被教導，認為氣候變化是非常非常緩慢的，它是最快幾十年的時間尺度，可能更像是幾個世紀的事情。

And so we could imagine, while it might be a problem for our grandchildren and their grandchildren, that we had a lot of time to address the issue, we had a lot of time to grow our way out of the issue and invent technological solutions to the problem.

所以我們可以想象，雖然這對我們的孫子和他們的孫子來說可能是一個問題，但我們有很多時間來解決這個問題，我們有很多時間來發展我們的方式來解決這個問題，併發明技術解決方案。

In fact, more than half of all of the fossil fuel emissions that we've put into the atmosphere in all of human history have been produced in the last 25 years, which means that we've now done more damage to the climate since Al Gore wrote his first book on global warming than in all the millennia before, since the U.

事實上，在人類歷史上，我們向大氣中排放的化石燃料中，有一半以上是在過去25年中產生的，這意味著自戈爾寫下他的第一本關於全球變暖的書以來，我們現在對氣候造成的破壞，比之前幾千年中所有的破壞都要大，自美國。

Established the I PCC that in all the millennia before this is not an old phenomenon, we're not dealing with the legacy of the Industrial Revolution.

建立了I PCC，在所有的千年之前，這不是一個老現象，我們不是在處理工業革命的遺產。

We're dealing with the damage that we're doing every day right now in real time, and we're seeing that damage on our TV screens finally, in the last few years with coverage of extreme weather, natural disasters.

我們現在每天都在實時處理我們正在做的損害，我們在電視屏幕上終於看到了這種損害，在過去的幾年裡，極端天氣、自然災害的報道。

I think our our media culture is just catching up to the fact that climate change is here.

我認為我們的媒體文化只是趕上了氣候變化的事實。

But people haven't really begun to appreciate just how much more will be coming, how much faster the problems will be accelerating and how little time we have to deal with the problem.

但是，人們還沒有真正開始意識到，還有更多的問題會到來，問題會加速發展，而我們處理問題的時間是多麼短暫。

That was the first big misapprehension I was trying to correct.

這是我想糾正的第一個大誤解。

The second is about the scope of the problem I had always understood.

二是關於我一直理解的問題範圍。

And I take this as a proxy of most people like me again, who are engaged in the issue but not deeply that climate change was mostly an issue of Arctic ice and sea level.

而我又以此為代表，像我這樣的大多數人都參與了這個問題，但並不深刻，氣候變化主要是北極冰和海平面的問題。

And while those air really important issues and could completely transform the planet redrawing the map, it's also just one very small part of the problem and it allowed us to believe if we were just focused on sea level rise, that if we lived off the coast we would be safe.

而這些空氣真的很重要的問題，可以完全改變地球重新繪製地圖，它也只是問題的一個非常小的部分，它讓我們相信如果我們只是專注於海平面上升，如果我們生活在沿海，我們將是安全的。

In fact, again, with this extreme weather with wildfires, with the heat waves we're seeing, we're just now beginning toe.

事實上，再一次，這種極端的天氣與野火，與熱浪，我們看到，我們只是現在開始趾。

Learn how much bigger the problem is, then sea level rise.

學習問題有多大，那麼海平面上升。

There's a nen or mus amount of really interesting, fascinating, if horrifying, research that's come out over the last few years about the impact of global warming on agricultural yields.

在過去的幾年裡，有很多有趣的、令人著迷的、甚至是可怕的研究，關於全球變暖對農業產量的影響。

They say that if we end up where we'll be at the end of the century without changing course, our grain yields could be half assed.

他們說，如果我們不改弦更張，到了本世紀末，我們的糧食產量就會半斤八兩。

Bountiful is they are today, which means we could have 50% more people on the planet and half assed much grain to give them on economics.

豐裕是他們今天，這意味著我們可以有更多的50％的人在地球上，半屁股多糧食給他們在經濟上。

So if we again stay on the course that were on by the end of the century, will have seen $600 trillion in damages from climate change, which is more than double all the wealth that exists in the world today.

是以，如果我們再次停留在本世紀末的課程上，將看到600萬億美元的損害，從氣候變化，這是超過一倍的所有財富，存在於今天的世界。

There's horrifying research on the relationship between climate and conflict, so that every half degree of warming you see between 10 and 20% increase in conflict, which means again by the end of the century, If we don't change course, we could have more than twice as much war as we have today.

氣候和衝突之間的關係有可怕的研究 每升溫半度，衝突就會增加10到20% 這意味著到本世紀末，如果我們不改變方向，我們可能會有超過今天兩倍的戰爭。

And, interestingly, that that research on violence and conflict is not just about interstate violence or interest state violence.

而且，有趣的是，那個關於暴力和衝突的研究，不僅僅是關於國家間的暴力或利益國家的暴力。

It also is at the level of the individual, so you'd see huge spikes in murder in domestic assault in rape.

這也是在個人的層面上，所以你會看到家暴強姦謀殺案的巨大高峰。

Just about every level at which violence could be conducted between people goes up when the temperature rises and we're looking at a future that's gonna be a lot hotter, which means we're looking at a future that is likely to be much more violent in every way.

當氣溫升高時，人與人之間的暴力程度都會上升，而我們所看到的未來會更加炎熱，這意味著我們所看到的未來，很可能在各方面都會更加暴力。

And that is just a sign that every aspect of our lives will be touched by climate change.

而這只是一個信號，我們生活的方方面面都會受到氣候變化的影響。

I think is extremely important for us to understand.

我想這對我們來說是非常重要的，我們要明白。

Climate is not something that's happening elsewhere at the coastline or somewhere else.

氣候不是發生在海岸線或其他地方的東西。

It's not happening toe other people, even if it may be hitting other populations more intensely than it's hitting the one that you're in.

它不會發生在其他人身上，即使它可能會打擊其他人口比它的打擊你的一個更強烈。

It will touch every life on the planet and transform every aspect of that life down to the decisions we make with our Charlie, you know, having Children and family where we live, what kinds of jobs are available, how much economic growth we can come to expect.

它將觸及地球上的每一個生命，並改變生活的方方面面，以至於我們與我們的查理所做的決定，你知道，有了孩子和家庭，我們住在哪裡，有什麼樣的工作機會，我們可以期待多少經濟增長。

It's a total izing, all encompassing system, and everything we do over the next century will be conducted in the theater of climate change.

這是一個全面化、全方位的系統，我們在下個世紀所做的一切都將在氣候變化的舞臺上進行。

So I feel very strongly that this century that we're walking into now is, um, going to be defined by this issue in the same way that previous centuries were defined, say, by modernity or by financial capitalism.

所以我強烈地感覺到，我們現在走入的這個世紀，嗯，將被這個問題所定義，就像以前的世紀被定義一樣，比如說，被現代性或金融資本主義所定義。

We're entering into a new era in which everything about the way that we live will be scrambled by climate change.

我們正在進入一個新的時代，在這個時代裡，我們生活方式的一切都將被氣候變化擾亂。

And it is certainly possible that by the end of my life for the end of my daughter's life will look back and think of the 21st century as a major setback in terms of human well being, maybe one that humanity will never be able to recover from.

當然也有可能在我的生命結束為女兒的生命結束時，回過頭來想一想，21世紀是人類福祉方面的重大挫折，也許是人類永遠無法恢復的。

But whether we get there again, it's entirely up to us.

但是否能再次到達那裡，完全取決於我們自己。

 There is all this out there to be worried about to be agitated about and to be focused on at a political level. 

有這些東西在外面，我們要擔心，要激動，要從政治層面去關注。