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  • In just a few weeks, 36 million Americans applied for unemployment, the unemployment

    在短短几周內,就有3600萬美國人申請了失業,失業率

  • rate reached almost 15 percent, it might not seem high, but during the 2008 crush, when

    率達到了近15%,看似不高,但在2008年的擠壓期,當。

  • the world economy collapsed, unemployment peaked at 9.6 percent.

    世界經濟崩潰,失業率最高達到9.6%。

  • The upcoming crush is closer to the great depression of 1929.

    即將到來的壓榨更接近於1929年的大蕭條。

  • To understand how we ended up screwing so badly that we are on our way to the greatest

    要明白我們怎麼會搞得如此糟糕,以至於我們在走向最大的。

  • financial crises humanity has ever faced, we have to understand a few things.

    人類有史以來所面臨的金融危機,我們必須瞭解一些事情。

  • How does the economic machine work?

    經濟機器是如何運作的?

  • What role do the central banks play?

    央行扮演什麼角色?

  • And what exactly we did wrong.

    而我們到底做錯了什麼。

  • The elephant in the room

    房間裡的大象

  • Before we get started, let's address the elephant in the room (Federal reserve).

    在開始之前,我們先來解決房間裡的大象(美聯儲)。

  • When you need some extra cash, what do you do?

    當你需要一些額外的現金,你會怎麼做?

  • You probably give a visit to your local bank.

    你可能會去當地銀行看看。

  • But what do the banks do when they don't have money to lend it to you.

    但銀行沒錢借給你怎麼辦。

  • They call the central bank, or the federal reserve in US.

    他們稱中央銀行,或美國的聯邦儲備。

  • The central bank's job is to protect the currency of that country and grow the economy by controlling

    中央銀行的工作是保護該國的貨幣,並通過控制來發展經濟

  • the supply of money and, most importantly, keeping inflation in check.

    貨幣供應量,最重要的是抑制通貨膨脹。

  • If the economy isn't growing, the central

    如果經濟不增長,中央的

  • bank will lower the interest rates so that borrowing money will be affordable.

    銀行會降低利率,這樣借錢就能負擔得起。

  • More people and Businesses will borrow to expand, which will stimulate the growth and

    更多的人和企業將借貸擴大規模,這將刺激經濟的增長和。

  • will get back the economy on its knees.

    會讓經濟重新回到它的膝蓋上。

  • Worst case scenario, the central bank will print trillions of dollars and throw it into

    最壞的情況是,央行將印製數萬億美元,並將其投入到

  • the economy as they did back in 2008.

    的經濟,因為他們在2008年的時候。

  • If, on the other hand, inflation is rising too fast.

    如果,另一方面,通貨膨脹率上升過快。

  • The central bank will increase the interest rates where borrowing will simply be too expensive

    央行會在借貸成本過高的地方提高利率。

  • so that fewer people will borrow, and less money will be spent; therefore, inflation

    這樣,借錢的人就會減少,花錢的人就會減少,是以,通貨膨脹。

  • slows down.

    慢下來。

  • the machine that keeps the world running

    運轉的機器

  • You probably have heard that whatever rises will definitely fall.

    你可能聽說過,凡是上漲的東西一定會下跌。

  • And that is the case with the economy.

    而經濟的情況也是如此。

  • In fact, the US broke the record of the longest economic expansion in its history.

    事實上,美國打破了其歷史上最長的經濟擴張記錄。

  • The economy has four main stages, and it starts with expansion.

    經濟有四個主要階段,首先是擴張。

  • It peaks somewhere at the top and plummets, which is also know as contraction, and once

    它在某處達到頂峰,然後急劇下降,這也就是所謂的收縮,而一旦

  • it reaches the lowest point, it rises again.

    到了最低點,它又會上升。

  • During the expansion period, the economy is booming, the stock market is rising, and it

    在經濟擴張期,經濟繁榮,股市上漲,它

  • seems like the growth will be forever.

    似乎將永遠成長下去。

  • Interest rates are low and Businesses are borrowing and expanding as fast as they can.

    利率低,企業以最快的速度借貸和擴張。

  • Investors are throwing money at the stock market, and everyone is happy.

    投資者把錢投向股市,大家都很高興。

  • Unfortunately, it doesn't last forever.

    不幸的是,它不會永遠持續下去。

  • At some point (peak), the central bank is going to say, "mmm, inflation is growing too

    到了某個時間點(峰值),央行會說:"嗯,通脹增長太厲害了

  • fast, lets slow it down."

    快,讓它慢下來。"

  • So the central bank or the fed will increase interest rates to keep the inflation under

    所以,央行或美聯儲會提高利率,把通脹率控制在

  • control.

    控制。

  • The economy has reached its full potential; it stabilizes and grows just enough to cope

    經濟已充分發揮其潛力;經濟的穩定和增長剛好足以應付。

  • with inflation.

    隨著通貨膨脹。

  • But investors are used to extraordinary returns.

    但投資者已經習慣了非凡的回報。

  • For instance, in the last ten years, iPhone sales have been increasing, but this year

    例如,在過去的十年裡,iPhone的銷量一直在增加,但今年

  • they didn't since the economy isn't growing that fast, that scares off investors, and

    他們沒有,因為經濟沒有那麼快的增長, 這嚇跑了投資者,和。

  • some of them slowly start pulling out their money.

    他們中的一些人慢慢開始掏錢。

  • Businesses like Apple will do their best to maximize their sales to keep investors interested;

    像蘋果這樣的企業,會盡最大努力讓自己的銷售額最大化,以保持投資者的興趣。

  • however, at some point, the supply will outweigh the demand.

    然而,在某些時候,供大於求。

  • There are just so many people who want an iPhone.

    想要iPhone的人實在是太多了。

  • So businesses slow down, that pushes away investors, which slows down further the market,

    所以企業放緩,就會推走投資者,從而進一步拖累市場。

  • but businesses have somehow to survive, they will start cutting cost.

    但企業要想生存,就會開始降低成本。

  • First, by firing the least important employees, so unemployment starts rising, which means

    首先,通過解僱最不重要的員工,所以失業率開始上升,這意味著

  • the demand starts falling in the market overall.

    市場整體需求開始下降。

  • Businesses can't even take a loan since interest rates are too high since the fed increased

    自從美聯儲加息後,企業連貸款都貸不到,因為利率太高。

  • them because inflation was too high.

    因為通貨膨脹率太高,他們。

  • That's how the economy slides into a recession (contraction).

    這就是經濟滑入衰退(收縮)的原因。

  • People start to save since they are afraid and uncertain about the future, which means

    人們因為對未來的恐懼和不確定而開始儲蓄,這意味著

  • the demand in the market falls even further, which means more businesses suffer, which

    市場需求進一步下降,這意味著更多的企業受到影響,這

  • means more unemployment.

    意味著更多的失業。

  • It's a never-ending cycle that will keep drugging the economy down.

    這是一個永無止境的循環,會一直給經濟下藥。

  • Usually, the fed intervenes by lowering interest rates to save the economy from the recession.

    通常情況下,美聯儲會通過降低利率進行干預,以挽救經濟的衰退。

  • But it doesn't always work instantly, and the economy keeps declining.

    但並不總是立竿見影,經濟不斷下滑。

  • At some point, the economy is going to reach its bottom line, which is also know as a depression

    到了一定的時候,經濟就會觸及到它的底線,也就是所謂的蕭條了

  • when the gdp declines by at least 10 percent or the recession lasts for more than 2 years.

    當GDP下降至少10%或經濟衰退持續2年以上時;

  • Sooner or later, the fed is going to say, "enough is enough," we are going to rescue

    遲早有一天,美聯儲會說 "夠了,夠了",我們要去救人了

  • the economy at all costs.

    不惜一切代價的經濟。

  • First, they will lower interest rates to zero, so businesses can borrow money for free.

    首先,他們會把利率降到零,讓企業可以免費借錢。

  • But what if that doesn't help, well the European central bank, dropped the interests to negative

    但如果這樣還不行呢,好吧,歐洲央行,把利息降到了負數。

  • (-0.5%), which means, the central bank will pay you to borrow that money,

    (-0.5%),也就是說,央行會給你錢去借這些錢。

  • But sometimes even that doesn't help, people are afraid to borrow because the economy looks

    但有時即使這樣也無濟於事,人們不敢借錢,因為經濟看起來

  • so bad that they don't seem to be able to pay it back.

    如此糟糕,他們似乎沒有能力償還。

  • In that case, the central banks will head to their bunker and use their nuclear option,

    在這種情況下,央行將前往他們的掩體,使用他們的核選項。

  • which is "quantitative easing," that's just a fancy word for printing money.

    這就是 "量化寬鬆", 這只是一個花哨的詞印錢。

  • Businesses will take that money and hire people.

    企業會拿這些錢去僱人。

  • Investors would see that the economy is slowly recovering and will start investing.

    投資者會看到經濟正在慢慢復甦,會開始投資。

  • The economy will return to the expansion stage, and the same cycle will repeat over and over.

    經濟將重新回到擴張階段,同樣的循環將不斷重複。

  • Where are we NOW?

    我們現在在哪裡?

  • Since we know how the economy works now, where exactly are we in this graph, have we reached

    既然我們知道了現在的經濟運行情況,那麼我們在這張圖上到底是什麼位置,我們是否已經到了。

  • the peak?

    峰值?

  • Or are we in a recession?

    還是我們正處於經濟衰退期?

  • Or are we still during the expansion period?

    還是我們還在擴張期?

  • Well, its extremely difficult to know for sure since we don't have all the facts in

    好吧,它非常難以確定 因為我們沒有所有的事實,在

  • front of us, and there are a lot of factors that are influencing the economy, but based

    前,影響經濟的因素有很多,但基於

  • on what we know, we can try to predict.

    在我們知道的基礎上,我們可以嘗試預測。

  • One of the best indicators is the interest rates, as we have discussed earlier.

    其中一個最好的指標是利率,我們前面已經討論過。

  • We can see that the fed has increased interest rates from 1 percent in 2005 to 5.2 percent

    我們可以看到,美聯儲已經將利率從2005年的1%提高到5.2

  • by 2008 since the economy was reaching its peak, but then everything collapsed so the

    到2008年,因為經濟達到了頂峰,但隨後一切都崩潰了,所以,在2008年的時候。

  • fed lowered the interest rates to 0.25 percent within a year to stimulate the growth and

    美聯儲在一年內將利率下調至0.25%,以刺激經濟增長,同時也是對美國經濟的一種支持。

  • for the next seven years didn't change since the economy was at its expansion period.

    未來7年,由於經濟處於擴張期,所以並沒有改變。

  • But then in 2015, it started to increase; by 2018, interest rates were at 2.5 percent.

    但到了2015年,開始增加;到了2018年,利率達到2.5%。

  • Which means we might have reached the peak  In 2018, something different began to happen.

    這意味著我們可能已經達到了巔峰 2018年,一些不同的事情開始發生。

  • The fed lowered the interest rates (to 1.75%).

    美聯儲下調了利率(至1.75%)。

  • Other central banks, such as the European central bank, began lowering rates since 2014.

    歐洲央行等其他央行自2014年起開始降息。

  • But they were already at a 0 parent, so they lowered them to -0.5 percent by 2019.

    但他們的父母已經是0,所以他們在2019年之前將其降低到-0.5%。

  • Other countries like China also decreased interest rates.

    中國等其他國家也降低了利率。

  • What does that mean?

    這意味著什麼?

  • The central banks knew that we have already reached the peak, and a recession was on a

    央行知道,我們已經到了頂峰,經濟衰退正在到來。

  • horizon and tried to postpone it as long as possible by lowering interest rates.

    地平線,並試圖通過降低利率儘可能地延後它。

  • Even the global GDP growth slowed down year

    甚至全球GDP增速逐年放緩

  • by year.

    按年份劃分。

  • In 2017 it was 3.1 percent, but in 2019 even before the pandemic, it fell to 2.4 percent,

    在2017年是3.1%,但在2019年即使在大流行之前,也下降到2.4%。

  • the lowest growth of the decade.

    十年來的最低增長。

  • That didn't happen by accident.

    這不是偶然發生的。

  • In the last few years, a lot of things happened that slowed down the economy.

    在過去的幾年裡,發生了很多讓經濟減速的事情。

  • First we had a Brexit which scared off investors because the future of EU became unpredictable.

    首先我們有一個Brexit,嚇跑了投資者,因為歐盟的未來變得不可預測。

  • But you might think they shouldn't be worried because they can invest in the United States

    但你可能認為他們不應該擔心 因為他們可以在美國進行投資

  • or China?

    還是中國?

  • Right?

    對吧?

  • But then suddenly the united states started a trade war with China and scared off more

    但突然美國對中國發起貿易戰,嚇跑了更多的人

  • investors and slowly drugging the economy into a recession.

    投資者,並將經濟慢慢藥入衰退。

  • - The final Knockout

    - 最後的淘汰賽

  • Even with Brexit and the trade war, we still could somehow postpone the recession, but

    即使有了Brexit和貿易戰,我們仍然可以以某種方式延後經濟衰退,但。

  • then COVID-19 looked at our economy and said: "I am about to destroy this man's carrier

    然後COVID -19看著我們的經濟說,"我將摧毀這個人的航母

  • xD."

    xD."

  • We live in a world where consumption drives the economy forward.

    我們生活在一個消費推動經濟發展的世界裡。

  • The more people earn, the more they spend, the faster the economic machine turns.

    人們掙得越多,花得越多,經濟機器轉得越快。

  • But right now, even if people are willing to spend, they simply can't, because restaurants,

    但現在,即使人們願意消費,也根本無法消費,因為餐館。

  • malls, barbershops, airlines, offices all have to close down.

    商場、理髮店、航空公司、辦公室都要關門。

  • That's why almost every government in the

    這就是為什麼幾乎每個政府在

  • world is trying to put the money into people's hand, so that their spending doesn't fall

    全世界都在努力把錢放進人們的手裡,讓他們的消費不至於落空

  • and the economy does not slide into a depression.

    而經濟不會滑向蕭條。

  • However, The problem is that there is just

    然而,問題是,只是有

  • so much money the government can raise or print, they can't keep distributing money

    寅吃卯糧,寅吃卯糧,寅吃卯糧

  • when the economy doesn't produce anything.

    當經濟不產生任何。

  • Millions of Americans have already applied

    數百萬美國人已經申請

  • for unemployment benefits as of April 2020.

    從2020年4月起領取失業救濟金。

  • Its most likely the virus won't be gone for another few years, and it is very unlikely

    它很有可能在幾年內不會消失,而且它也不可能消失

  • that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year.

    我們將在年底前研製出疫苗。

  • On top of that, since we are most likely already in a recession.

    最重要的是,由於我們很可能已經處於經濟衰退期。

  • If we end up experiencing a second wave of this pandemic, then depression is inevitable.

    如果我們最終經歷了這種大流行的第二波,那麼抑鬱症是不可避免的。

  • That's one of the main reasons why the current

    這也是為什麼目前的主要原因之一。

  • US president for example is trying to open the country as soon as possible since if the

    比如美國總統就是想盡快開放國家,因為如果。

  • country will slide to a depression under his watch, he will most likely lose the election

    在他的眼皮底下,國家將陷入蕭條,他很可能會輸掉選舉。

  • at the end of the year, whether that's good or bad, its up to you to decide.

    到了年底,是好是壞,由你來決定。

  • By the time this video will be out, the country will probably be open.

    等到這段視頻出來的時候,國家可能就會開放了。

  • - the change of the century

    - 世紀之交

  • But not all businesses are going to suffer.

    但不是所有的企業都會受到影響。

  • Online businesses like Zoom, for example, are growing tremendously, even amazon has

    比如Zoom這樣的線上企業發展巨大,就連亞馬遜也有了

  • been growing.

    一直在增長。

  • But most businesses will be left with two options, they will earthier change their business

    但大多數企業將剩下兩個選擇,他們將更大地改變他們的業務。

  • and adapt to the new realities by changing their business models, digitalizing their

    和適應新的現實,改變其商業模式,使其數字化。

  • products or services, or go bankrupt.

    產品或服務,或者破產。

  • A lot of businesses will definitely won't make it, but as they say, every crisis presents

    很多企業肯定會做不下去,但正如人們所說,每一次危機都會帶來

  • an opportunity.

    一個機會。

  • Many new businesses will take their place.

    許多新的企業將取而代之。

  • This pandemic is literally pushing the world to go online completely.

    這場大瘟疫簡直是把世界徹底推到了網上。

  • It's difficult to say what will happen in the future since almost all predictions turn

    很難說未來會發生什麼,因為幾乎所有的預測都會變成現實。

  • out to be wrong, but base on what we know today, we are most likely going to depression,

    錯了,但根據我們今天所知道的,我們很可能會陷入抑鬱症。

  • the economy, together with the stock market will crush.

    經濟,連同股市都會粉碎。

  • if you guys have enjoyed this video, make sure you give it a thumbs up and if you want

    如果你們喜歡這段視頻,一定要給它豎起大拇指,如果你想了解更多的資訊,請聯繫我們。

  • to see more similar videos, then hit that subscribe button.

    查看更多類似的視頻,然後點擊那個訂閱按鈕。

  • thanks for watching and until next time.

    謝謝你的觀看,直到下一次。

In just a few weeks, 36 million Americans applied for unemployment, the unemployment

在短短几周內,就有3600萬美國人申請了失業,失業率

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2020年股市暴跌 (The 2020 Stock Market Crash)

  • 7 2
    Summer 發佈於 2020 年 10 月 08 日