rate reached almost 15 percent, it might not seem high, but during the 2008 crush, when

率達到了近15%，看似不高，但在2008年的擠壓期，當。

the world economy collapsed, unemployment peaked at 9.6 percent.

世界經濟崩潰，失業率最高達到9.6%。

The upcoming crush is closer to the great depression of 1929.

即將到來的壓榨更接近於1929年的大蕭條。

To understand how we ended up screwing so badly that we are on our way to the greatest

要明白我們怎麼會搞得如此糟糕，以至於我們在走向最大的。

financial crises humanity has ever faced, we have to understand a few things.

人類有史以來所面臨的金融危機，我們必須瞭解一些事情。

How does the economic machine work?

經濟機器是如何運作的？

What role do the central banks play?

央行扮演什麼角色？

And what exactly we did wrong.

而我們到底做錯了什麼。

The elephant in the room

房間裡的大象

Before we get started, let's address the elephant in the room (Federal reserve).

在開始之前，我們先來解決房間裡的大象（美聯儲）。

When you need some extra cash, what do you do?

當你需要一些額外的現金，你會怎麼做？

You probably give a visit to your local bank.

你可能會去當地銀行看看。

But what do the banks do when they don't have money to lend it to you.

但銀行沒錢借給你怎麼辦。

They call the central bank, or the federal reserve in US.

他們稱中央銀行，或美國的聯邦儲備。

The central bank's job is to protect the currency of that country and grow the economy by controlling

中央銀行的工作是保護該國的貨幣，並通過控制來發展經濟

the supply of money and, most importantly, keeping inflation in check.

貨幣供應量，最重要的是抑制通貨膨脹。

If the economy isn't growing, the central

如果經濟不增長，中央的

bank will lower the interest rates so that borrowing money will be affordable.

銀行會降低利率，這樣借錢就能負擔得起。

More people and Businesses will borrow to expand, which will stimulate the growth and

更多的人和企業將借貸擴大規模，這將刺激經濟的增長和。

will get back the economy on its knees.

會讓經濟重新回到它的膝蓋上。

Worst case scenario, the central bank will print trillions of dollars and throw it into

最壞的情況是，央行將印製數萬億美元，並將其投入到

the economy as they did back in 2008.

的經濟，因為他們在2008年的時候。

If, on the other hand, inflation is rising too fast.

如果，另一方面，通貨膨脹率上升過快。

The central bank will increase the interest rates where borrowing will simply be too expensive

央行會在借貸成本過高的地方提高利率。

so that fewer people will borrow, and less money will be spent; therefore, inflation

這樣，借錢的人就會減少，花錢的人就會減少，是以，通貨膨脹。

slows down.

慢下來。

the machine that keeps the world running

運轉的機器

You probably have heard that whatever rises will definitely fall.

你可能聽說過，凡是上漲的東西一定會下跌。

And that is the case with the economy.

而經濟的情況也是如此。

In fact, the US broke the record of the longest economic expansion in its history.

事實上，美國打破了其歷史上最長的經濟擴張記錄。

The economy has four main stages, and it starts with expansion.

經濟有四個主要階段，首先是擴張。

It peaks somewhere at the top and plummets, which is also know as contraction, and once

它在某處達到頂峰，然後急劇下降，這也就是所謂的收縮，而一旦

it reaches the lowest point, it rises again.

到了最低點，它又會上升。

During the expansion period, the economy is booming, the stock market is rising, and it

在經濟擴張期，經濟繁榮，股市上漲，它

seems like the growth will be forever.

似乎將永遠成長下去。

Interest rates are low and Businesses are borrowing and expanding as fast as they can.

利率低，企業以最快的速度借貸和擴張。

Investors are throwing money at the stock market, and everyone is happy.

投資者把錢投向股市，大家都很高興。

Unfortunately, it doesn't last forever.

不幸的是，它不會永遠持續下去。

At some point (peak), the central bank is going to say, "mmm, inflation is growing too

到了某個時間點（峰值），央行會說："嗯，通脹增長太厲害了

fast, lets slow it down."

快，讓它慢下來。"

So the central bank or the fed will increase interest rates to keep the inflation under

所以，央行或美聯儲會提高利率，把通脹率控制在

control.

控制。

The economy has reached its full potential; it stabilizes and grows just enough to cope

經濟已充分發揮其潛力；經濟的穩定和增長剛好足以應付。

with inflation.

隨著通貨膨脹。

But investors are used to extraordinary returns.

但投資者已經習慣了非凡的回報。

For instance, in the last ten years, iPhone sales have been increasing, but this year

例如，在過去的十年裡，iPhone的銷量一直在增加，但今年

they didn't since the economy isn't growing that fast, that scares off investors, and

他們沒有，因為經濟沒有那麼快的增長， 這嚇跑了投資者，和。

some of them slowly start pulling out their money.

他們中的一些人慢慢開始掏錢。

Businesses like Apple will do their best to maximize their sales to keep investors interested;

像蘋果這樣的企業，會盡最大努力讓自己的銷售額最大化，以保持投資者的興趣。

however, at some point, the supply will outweigh the demand.

然而，在某些時候，供大於求。

There are just so many people who want an iPhone.

想要iPhone的人實在是太多了。

So businesses slow down, that pushes away investors, which slows down further the market,

所以企業放緩，就會推走投資者，從而進一步拖累市場。

but businesses have somehow to survive, they will start cutting cost.

但企業要想生存，就會開始降低成本。

First, by firing the least important employees, so unemployment starts rising, which means

首先，通過解僱最不重要的員工，所以失業率開始上升，這意味著

the demand starts falling in the market overall.

市場整體需求開始下降。

Businesses can't even take a loan since interest rates are too high since the fed increased

自從美聯儲加息後，企業連貸款都貸不到，因為利率太高。

them because inflation was too high.

因為通貨膨脹率太高，他們。

That's how the economy slides into a recession (contraction).

這就是經濟滑入衰退（收縮）的原因。

People start to save since they are afraid and uncertain about the future, which means

人們因為對未來的恐懼和不確定而開始儲蓄，這意味著

the demand in the market falls even further, which means more businesses suffer, which

市場需求進一步下降，這意味著更多的企業受到影響，這

means more unemployment.

意味著更多的失業。

It's a never-ending cycle that will keep drugging the economy down.

這是一個永無止境的循環，會一直給經濟下藥。

Usually, the fed intervenes by lowering interest rates to save the economy from the recession.

通常情況下，美聯儲會通過降低利率進行干預，以挽救經濟的衰退。

But it doesn't always work instantly, and the economy keeps declining.

但並不總是立竿見影，經濟不斷下滑。

At some point, the economy is going to reach its bottom line, which is also know as a depression

到了一定的時候，經濟就會觸及到它的底線，也就是所謂的蕭條了

when the gdp declines by at least 10 percent or the recession lasts for more than 2 years.

當GDP下降至少10%或經濟衰退持續2年以上時；

Sooner or later, the fed is going to say, "enough is enough," we are going to rescue

遲早有一天，美聯儲會說 "夠了，夠了"，我們要去救人了

the economy at all costs.

不惜一切代價的經濟。

First, they will lower interest rates to zero, so businesses can borrow money for free.

首先，他們會把利率降到零，讓企業可以免費借錢。

But what if that doesn't help, well the European central bank, dropped the interests to negative

但如果這樣還不行呢，好吧，歐洲央行，把利息降到了負數。

(-0.5%), which means, the central bank will pay you to borrow that money,

(-0.5%)，也就是說，央行會給你錢去借這些錢。

But sometimes even that doesn't help, people are afraid to borrow because the economy looks

但有時即使這樣也無濟於事，人們不敢借錢，因為經濟看起來

so bad that they don't seem to be able to pay it back.

如此糟糕，他們似乎沒有能力償還。

In that case, the central banks will head to their bunker and use their nuclear option,

在這種情況下，央行將前往他們的掩體，使用他們的核選項。

which is "quantitative easing," that's just a fancy word for printing money.

這就是 "量化寬鬆"， 這只是一個花哨的詞印錢。

Businesses will take that money and hire people.

企業會拿這些錢去僱人。

Investors would see that the economy is slowly recovering and will start investing.

投資者會看到經濟正在慢慢復甦，會開始投資。

The economy will return to the expansion stage, and the same cycle will repeat over and over.

經濟將重新回到擴張階段，同樣的循環將不斷重複。

Where are we NOW?

我們現在在哪裡？

Since we know how the economy works now, where exactly are we in this graph, have we reached

既然我們知道了現在的經濟運行情況，那麼我們在這張圖上到底是什麼位置，我們是否已經到了。

the peak?

峰值？

Or are we in a recession?

還是我們正處於經濟衰退期？

Or are we still during the expansion period?

還是我們還在擴張期？

Well, its extremely difficult to know for sure since we don't have all the facts in

好吧，它非常難以確定 因為我們沒有所有的事實，在

front of us, and there are a lot of factors that are influencing the economy, but based

前，影響經濟的因素有很多，但基於

on what we know, we can try to predict.

在我們知道的基礎上，我們可以嘗試預測。

One of the best indicators is the interest rates, as we have discussed earlier.

其中一個最好的指標是利率，我們前面已經討論過。

We can see that the fed has increased interest rates from 1 percent in 2005 to 5.2 percent

我們可以看到，美聯儲已經將利率從2005年的1%提高到5.2

by 2008 since the economy was reaching its peak, but then everything collapsed so the

到2008年，因為經濟達到了頂峰，但隨後一切都崩潰了，所以，在2008年的時候。

fed lowered the interest rates to 0.25 percent within a year to stimulate the growth and

美聯儲在一年內將利率下調至0.25%，以刺激經濟增長，同時也是對美國經濟的一種支持。

for the next seven years didn't change since the economy was at its expansion period.

未來7年，由於經濟處於擴張期，所以並沒有改變。

But then in 2015, it started to increase; by 2018, interest rates were at 2.5 percent.

但到了2015年，開始增加；到了2018年，利率達到2.5%。

Which means we might have reached the peak  In 2018, something different began to happen.

這意味著我們可能已經達到了巔峰 2018年，一些不同的事情開始發生。

The fed lowered the interest rates (to 1.75%).

美聯儲下調了利率（至1.75%）。

Other central banks, such as the European central bank, began lowering rates since 2014.

歐洲央行等其他央行自2014年起開始降息。

But they were already at a 0 parent, so they lowered them to -0.5 percent by 2019.

但他們的父母已經是0，所以他們在2019年之前將其降低到-0.5%。

Other countries like China also decreased interest rates.

中國等其他國家也降低了利率。

What does that mean?

這意味著什麼？

The central banks knew that we have already reached the peak, and a recession was on a

央行知道，我們已經到了頂峰，經濟衰退正在到來。

horizon and tried to postpone it as long as possible by lowering interest rates.

地平線，並試圖通過降低利率儘可能地延後它。

Even the global GDP growth slowed down year

甚至全球GDP增速逐年放緩

by year.

按年份劃分。

In 2017 it was 3.1 percent, but in 2019 even before the pandemic, it fell to 2.4 percent,

在2017年是3.1%，但在2019年即使在大流行之前，也下降到2.4%。

the lowest growth of the decade.

十年來的最低增長。

That didn't happen by accident.

這不是偶然發生的。

In the last few years, a lot of things happened that slowed down the economy.

在過去的幾年裡，發生了很多讓經濟減速的事情。

First we had a Brexit which scared off investors because the future of EU became unpredictable.

首先我們有一個Brexit，嚇跑了投資者，因為歐盟的未來變得不可預測。

But you might think they shouldn't be worried because they can invest in the United States

但你可能認為他們不應該擔心 因為他們可以在美國進行投資

or China?

還是中國？

Right?

對吧？

But then suddenly the united states started a trade war with China and scared off more

但突然美國對中國發起貿易戰，嚇跑了更多的人

investors and slowly drugging the economy into a recession.

投資者，並將經濟慢慢藥入衰退。

- The final Knockout

- 最後的淘汰賽

Even with Brexit and the trade war, we still could somehow postpone the recession, but

即使有了Brexit和貿易戰，我們仍然可以以某種方式延後經濟衰退，但。

then COVID-19 looked at our economy and said: "I am about to destroy this man's carrier

然後COVID -19看著我們的經濟說，"我將摧毀這個人的航母

xD."

xD."

We live in a world where consumption drives the economy forward.

我們生活在一個消費推動經濟發展的世界裡。

The more people earn, the more they spend, the faster the economic machine turns.

人們掙得越多，花得越多，經濟機器轉得越快。

But right now, even if people are willing to spend, they simply can't, because restaurants,

但現在，即使人們願意消費，也根本無法消費，因為餐館。

malls, barbershops, airlines, offices all have to close down.

商場、理髮店、航空公司、辦公室都要關門。

That's why almost every government in the

這就是為什麼幾乎每個政府在

world is trying to put the money into people's hand, so that their spending doesn't fall

全世界都在努力把錢放進人們的手裡，讓他們的消費不至於落空

and the economy does not slide into a depression.

而經濟不會滑向蕭條。

However, The problem is that there is just

然而，問題是，只是有

so much money the government can raise or print, they can't keep distributing money

寅吃卯糧，寅吃卯糧，寅吃卯糧

when the economy doesn't produce anything.

當經濟不產生任何。

Millions of Americans have already applied

數百萬美國人已經申請

for unemployment benefits as of April 2020.

從2020年4月起領取失業救濟金。

Its most likely the virus won't be gone for another few years, and it is very unlikely

它很有可能在幾年內不會消失，而且它也不可能消失

that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year.

我們將在年底前研製出疫苗。

On top of that, since we are most likely already in a recession.

最重要的是，由於我們很可能已經處於經濟衰退期。

If we end up experiencing a second wave of this pandemic, then depression is inevitable.

如果我們最終經歷了這種大流行的第二波，那麼抑鬱症是不可避免的。

That's one of the main reasons why the current

這也是為什麼目前的主要原因之一。

US president for example is trying to open the country as soon as possible since if the

比如美國總統就是想盡快開放國家，因為如果。

country will slide to a depression under his watch, he will most likely lose the election

在他的眼皮底下，國家將陷入蕭條，他很可能會輸掉選舉。

at the end of the year, whether that's good or bad, its up to you to decide.

到了年底，是好是壞，由你來決定。

By the time this video will be out, the country will probably be open.

等到這段視頻出來的時候，國家可能就會開放了。

- the change of the century

- 世紀之交

But not all businesses are going to suffer.

但不是所有的企業都會受到影響。

Online businesses like Zoom, for example, are growing tremendously, even amazon has

比如Zoom這樣的線上企業發展巨大，就連亞馬遜也有了

been growing.

一直在增長。

But most businesses will be left with two options, they will earthier change their business

但大多數企業將剩下兩個選擇，他們將更大地改變他們的業務。

and adapt to the new realities by changing their business models, digitalizing their

和適應新的現實，改變其商業模式，使其數字化。

products or services, or go bankrupt.

產品或服務，或者破產。

A lot of businesses will definitely won't make it, but as they say, every crisis presents

很多企業肯定會做不下去，但正如人們所說，每一次危機都會帶來

an opportunity.

一個機會。

Many new businesses will take their place.

許多新的企業將取而代之。

This pandemic is literally pushing the world to go online completely.

這場大瘟疫簡直是把世界徹底推到了網上。

It's difficult to say what will happen in the future since almost all predictions turn

很難說未來會發生什麼，因為幾乎所有的預測都會變成現實。

out to be wrong, but base on what we know today, we are most likely going to depression,

錯了，但根據我們今天所知道的，我們很可能會陷入抑鬱症。

the economy, together with the stock market will crush.

經濟，連同股市都會粉碎。

if you guys have enjoyed this video, make sure you give it a thumbs up and if you want

如果你們喜歡這段視頻，一定要給它豎起大拇指，如果你想了解更多的資訊，請聯繫我們。

to see more similar videos, then hit that subscribe button.

查看更多類似的視頻，然後點擊那個訂閱按鈕。

thanks for watching and until next time.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。