When everyone thought that these stocks are going to grow forever, Major tech stocks completely

當大家都以為這些股票會永遠增長的時候，主要的科技股完全

collapsed and experienced a drop day after day.

崩潰，經歷了一天又一天的下跌。

Apple, Google, Tesla, every tech stock is pretty much down.

蘋果、谷歌、特斯拉，每個科技股都跌得很慘。

And that's not by accident.

而這並非偶然。

The stock market has been overvalued for the last few months since the stock market has

自股市被高估以來，股市已經

been rising like there is no tomorrow.

一直在上升，就像沒有明天。

And when the market is at its peak!

而當市場處於高峰期的時候!

What do you do!

你是做什麼的！

Sell!

賣！

And that's what has been happening recently.

而這就是最近發生的事情。

At the beginning of August, Bezos first sold over 3.1 billion dollars of amazon stocks.

8月初，貝佐斯首次賣出超過31億美元的亞馬遜股票。

At the end of August, Tim Cook sold 131.7 million dollars of apple stocks since it probably

8月底，蒂姆-庫克賣出了1.317億美元的蘋果股票，因為它可能是。

won't cross the 2 trillion dollar mark at least in the coming year or two.

至少在未來一兩年內不會突破2萬億大關。

On September 1st, Tesla announced that it would raise 5 billion dollars by selling stocks

9月1日，特斯拉宣佈將通過出售股票籌集50億美元資金

from time to time, but it seems like that time wasn't long.

時不時的，但好像時間並不長。

By September 4th, within three days, they sold off everything and raised 5 billion dollars.

到了9月4日，三天之內，他們賣掉了所有的東西，籌集了50億資金。

It seems like Musk also thinks that the price was at all times high.

看來，馬斯克也認為，價格一直處於高位。

And that's one reason why the market has been falling.

而這也是市場一直下跌的原因之一。

The demand and supply usually set the price.

供求關係通常會決定價格。

Since the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a lot of uncertainty about the future,

從大流行開始，未來就有很多不確定因素。

but what we knew for sure that we need to practice social distancing, and a lot of jobs

但我們確定的是，我們需要練習社交的距離，很多工作

are going to be from home.

是要從家裡。

Automation is going to accelerate, in other words, technology is basically the future

自動化會加速發展，換句話說，技術基本上是未來的發展趨勢

so investors had to keep their wealth somewhere safe and most important somewhere where it

是以，投資者必須保持他們的財富 安全的地方，最重要的地方，它

would continue to grow despite the pandemic and tech companies seemed like the best option

雖說是大流行病，但仍會繼續增長，科技公司似乎是最好的選擇。

besides gold.

除了黃金之外。

That's why gold prices and tech companies grew exponantioally since there was much more

這就是為什麼金價和科技公司成倍增長，因為有更多的。

cash chasing limited amount of stocks.

現金追逐有限數量的股票。

Hence, prices rose dramatically.

是以，價格大幅上漲。

Once early investors realized that prices are significantly overvalued, they decided

一旦早期投資者意識到價格被嚴重高估，他們就決定

to sell and rip off the profits as would any rational investor.

和任何理性的投資者一樣，賣出並騙取利潤。

And one of the problems with the market is that most investors are not rational.

而市場的一個問題是，大多數投資者並不理性。

In the past, you had to study finance, understand financial statements, and make reasonable

過去，你要學習金融，瞭解財務報表，並做出合理的

financial decisions, today, you can buy stocks with a few clicks on your smartphone, so If

財務決策，今天，你可以買股票，在智能手機上點擊幾下，所以如果

you are seeing in the news that apple, Tesla, or amazon stocks are growing dramatically!

你在新聞中看到，蘋果、特斯拉或亞馬遜的股票都在大幅增長!

Why not take the ride with them and also get rich quickly!

何不和他們一起搭車，也能快速致富!

And when the market starts falling, people panic and start selling to minimize losses,

而當市場開始下跌時，人們就會恐慌，開始賣出，以減少損失。

which drives prices down.

促使價格下降。

why stocks are overvalued

為什麼股票被高估

Take Apple, for example.

以蘋果為例。

Just in December of last year, its price to earnings ratio was 17.7, which means for every

就在去年12月，其市盈率為17.7，這意味著每一個

dollar you invest, it will take the company 17.7 years to pay back the amount you paid

你投資的一元錢，公司需要17.7年的時間來償還你支付的金額。

for each share.

對於每一個股。

Since the industry average is 15, apple was quite a good investment back then.

由於行業平均水平是15，所以蘋果當時的投資相當不錯。

But then suddenly, in less than a year, its PE ratio jumps to almost 40 when its earnings

但突然間，不到一年的時間，其PE比就跳到了近40，當其收益

were pretty much the same as the last year.

和去年差不多。

Of course, price to earnings ratio isn't the most accurate way to value a company since

當然，市盈率並不是最準確的公司估值方式，因為

it uses the company's earnings for the last 12 months.

它使用公司過去12個月的收益。

So let's take a look at the forward P/E ratio.

那麼我們來看看遠期市盈率。

How much experts predict the company is going to earn.

專家預測公司要賺多少錢。

Last year it was a little over 22.17.

去年是22.17多一點。

Since its price to earnings ratio has more than doubled, its forward PE ratio should

由於其市盈率已經翻了一倍多，所以其遠期PE比應該是

have as well?

也有？

Right?

對吧？

Not at all.

一點也不。

It jumped slightly to 28 as of September 2020.

截至2020年9月，它略微躍升至28。

Which is another indicator that the stock price is probably overvalued?

還有哪一個指標可以說明股價可能被高估了？

That's why it has fallen to 34 at the time of writing this script and would probably

這就是為什麼在寫這篇稿子的時候，它已經降到了34歲，而且可能會。

keep falling to around 20.

不斷下降到20左右。

Of course, relying on some ratios to judge the market isn't the most accurate method,

當然，依靠一些比率來判斷市場並不是最準確的方法。

but it's not just apple, but also Tesla, amazon, google, and others.

但不僅僅是蘋果，還有特斯拉、亞馬遜、谷歌等。

However, not the entire market is overvalued.

然而，並非整個市場都被高估。

Many companies haven't recovered to their pre-pandemic levels yet.

許多公司還沒有恢復到流行前的水準。

It's only the tech companies that surged dramatically.

只有科技公司大幅飆升。

So, The question is Will the market crash again?

那麼，問題是市場會不會再次崩盤？

The United States handled COVID-19 terribly.

美國對COVID-19的處理非常糟糕。

Cases might have dropped to 30 or 40 thousand a day, but that's still significantly high.

案件可能已經下降到每天3、4萬件，但仍然明顯偏高。

And as we approach the winter, experts are warning that cases might spike again.

而隨著冬季的到來，專家警告說，病例可能會再次激增。

On top of that, take into account that the election is coming, you have a perfect recipe

除此之外，考慮到大選在即，你有一個完美的配方。

for another market crash.

為另一個市場崩潰。

Elections create uncertainty.

選舉會帶來不確定性。

Which means investors don't know what's going to happen.

這意味著投資者不知道會發生什麼。

Regardless of which candidate do you support, we have to put the facts on the table.

不管你支持哪位候選人，我們都要把事實擺在桌面上。

If trump gets elected, we will have massive protests, which will also increase COVID 19

如果特朗普當選，我們將有大規模的抗議活動，這也將增加COVID 19

cases, and will create more uncertainty.

案，並將帶來更多的不確定性。

And if Biden gets elected, then corporate taxes or even capital gain taxes would probably

而如果拜登當選，那麼公司稅甚至資本利得稅可能會

spike, which means fewer earnings for companies and investors, which means stock prices would

飆升，這意味著公司和投資者的收益減少，也就意味著股價將

drop.

滴。

But that doesn't mean that the market will crash as it did back in March.

但這並不意味著市場會像3月時那樣崩盤。

Only time will tell.

只有時間才能證明。

But what we know for sure is that the Fed is going to do everything possible to keep

但我們可以肯定的是，美聯儲將盡一切可能保持

the economy stable because that's the job of the fed.

因為那是美聯儲的工作。

If the economy is rising too fast, it raises interest rates, for example, to slow it down.

如果經濟上升速度過快，它就會提高利率，比如說，讓它慢下來。

When the market is falling dramatically, then the fed steps in to flood the market with

當市場急劇下跌時，美聯儲就會出手，讓市場氾濫成災。

cash to make the crises a little less painful.

現金，讓危機少一點痛苦。

And that's what happened back in March.

這就是3月份時發生的事情。

The fed lowered interest to almost zero, issued stimulus checks, started buying corporate

美聯儲把利息降到幾乎為零，開出刺激性支票，開始購買企業的股票

debt.

債務。

It basically used every weapon in its arsenal to prevent the economy sliding into a recession,

它基本上動用了其武器庫中的所有武器，以防止經濟滑向衰退。

the economy still went into recession, but the stock market grew exponentially since

經濟仍在衰退，但股市卻成倍增長。

the Fed made it clear that it's going to do everything to keep it stable.

美聯儲明確表示，將盡一切努力保持穩定。

However, that can't continue.

然而，這種情況不能繼續下去。

At some point, investors are going to realize that prices are inflated, and the bubble would

在某些時候，投資者會意識到價格被誇大了，保麗龍將

burst.

爆發。

The Fed is trying to keep the economy stable until a vaccine is available so that everyone

美聯儲試圖保持經濟穩定，直到有了疫苗，讓大家

will get back to work, and the economy keeps growing as it has been prior to that.

將重新開始工作，經濟保持增長，因為在此之前。

According to Bill Gates, who has long ago predicted this pandemic and heavily invested

根據比爾-蓋茨的說法，他早就預測到了這種流行病，並投入巨資

in the top 6 companies working on a vaccine, a vaccine for COVID 19 will most likely be

在研發疫苗的前6家公司中，針對COVID 19的疫苗很有可能是

ready by the beginning of 2021, so we are pretty close to it.

到2021年初準備好，所以我們已經很接近了。

To what extend the market is going to crash in the next few months.

未來幾個月市場會崩盤到什麼程度。

No one really knows.

沒有人真正知道。

But the main question is, should you sell or hold?

但最主要的問題是，你應該賣出還是持有？

If you are a long term investor, you probably shouldn't care about what's happening in the

如果你是一個長期投資者，你可能不應該關心發生在你身上的事情。

market because the market is always volatile.

市場，因為市場總是波動的。

It just sometimes its a bit more than other times.

只是有時它比其他時間多一點。

If you are an ETF investor, you probably know that.

如果你是一個ETF投資者，你可能知道。

Because of these ETFs have just recently recovered to their pre-pandemic levels.

因為這些ETF最近剛剛恢復到流行前的水準。

As the election is going to create uncertainty, the market might dip a little bit, maybe more,

由於大選將產生不確定性，市場可能會下挫一點，也許會更多。

but at the end of the day, it will bounce back to what it really worth.

但在一天結束時，它會反彈到它真正的價值。

For the last ten years, the market has been growing tremendously, and the Fed did a pretty

在過去的十年裡，市場一直在巨大的增長，美聯儲做了一個漂亮的。

good job at keeping it growing.

良好的工作在保持它的增長。

It was the longest economic expansion in the history of the US.

這是美國曆史上最長的一次經濟擴張。

I personally won't be selling anything because I am a long term investor, especially the

我個人不會賣出任何東西，因為我是一個長期的投資者，尤其是對我來說。

investments I have made this year because I will have to pay a high capital gain tax,

我今年所做的投資，因為我將不得不支付高額的資本收益稅。

So I would rather just keep my investments.

所以我寧願只保留我的投資。

But at the same time, I probably won't go heavy on any stock until after the election

但同時，我可能在選舉前不會重倉任何股票

if stocks bounce back to what they really worth.

如果股票反彈到他們真正的價值。

Then I am all in.

那我就全力以赴了。

If not, waiting for a little more would probably be a wiser option.

如果不是，多等一等也許是一個比較明智的選擇。

And now it's your turn to tell me if you are investing now or not?

現在輪到你來告訴我，你現在到底有沒有投資？

Do you agree with me that we are in a bubble?

你是否同意我的觀點，我們正處於保麗龍之中？

And which stock are you going to buy when the bubble bursts?

而當保麗龍破滅時，你要買哪隻股票呢？

Let me know int he comments below.

讓我知道在他下面的評論。