There is a lot of unknowns today.

如今有很多未知數。

We're going to talk about what experts are saying based on up to date research about the rollout of a covert 19 vaccine over the coming year.

我們將根據最新的研究，談談專家們對未來一年推出隱性19號疫苗的看法。

Picture this.

想象一下

It's September 2021.

現在是2021年9月。

Covad, 19 is still being spread across the world.

科瓦德，19日仍在世界範圍內傳播。

Let's say 300 million people have been infected.

比方說，有3億人被感染。

Two million have died.

有兩百萬人死亡。

These air some predictions for next fall.

這些空氣對明年秋天的一些預測。

You have survived the dark winter you've enjoyed this summer, physically distancing with your friends your kind of used to this pandemic lifestyle of outbreaks and locked down.

你熬過了這個夏天享受的黑暗冬天，與你的朋友你的那種習慣了這種爆發和鎖定的大流行生活方式的身體疏遠。

Yeah, and a vaccine fork over 19 has been approved, but you do not have access to it yet.

是啊，19歲以上的疫苗分叉已經被準許了，但你還沒有獲得它。

So why is that?

那為什麼會這樣呢？

Something that scientists are talking about a lot right now and publishing papers are saying we need glass vials.

科學家們現在經常談論的東西，發表的論文都說我們需要玻璃瓶。

Okay, The vaccine is held in glass vials, and I'm not a politician, but I really just like wherever the glass vial factories are, let's start spitting them out.

好吧，疫苗是裝在玻璃瓶裡的，我不是政客，但我真的只是喜歡，不管玻璃瓶工廠在哪裡，我們都要把它們吐出來。

Another interesting factor is whether or not the vaccine that eventually gets approved needs to be cold.

另一個有趣的因素是，最終獲得準許的疫苗是否需要冷。

A lot of vaccines require refrigeration.

很多疫苗都需要冷藏。

This is a huge issue for a lot of the world.

這對世界上很多人來說是一個巨大的問題。

As we all know, the world is hot and it's only getting hotter.

眾所周知，這個世界很熱，而且只會越來越熱。

And the necessity of a cold vaccine can hinder the ability to get this vaccine across the world efficiently.

而感冒疫苗的必要性，會阻礙這種疫苗在全世界範圍內的有效傳遞。

As of September 2020 there are 47 vaccine trials taking place, 24 are in phase 1, 14 are in phase two, and nine are in phase three.

截至2020年9月，共有47項疫苗試驗正在進行，24項處於第一階段，14項處於第二階段，9項處於第三階段。

Phase three means that these vaccines have actually been proven safe to test in people.

第三階段是指這些疫苗實際上已經被證明在人身上測試是安全的。

But we have to test in numbers as high as 20,000 to 40,000 people.

但我們要測試的人數高達2萬到4萬人。

Then we also have to have some in control groups, some not.

那麼我們也要有一些在對照組，有一些不在對照組。

Then we have to follow these people for months to a year in following number.

那我們就要跟著這些人在下面的號裡跟了幾個月到一年。

Trying to see is this vaccine provoking in immune response, which protects you from Cove in 19 in early September 2020.

想看看是這種疫苗在免疫反應中引發的，它可以保護你在2020年9月初的19個科夫。

Just last week, the AstraZeneca trial was paused.

就在上週，阿斯利康的試驗被暫停。

This is because one person in Britain who was in the phase 23 trials actually came down with a inflammation of their spinal core.

這是因為英國有一個人在23期試驗中，居然出現了脊柱核心的發炎。

This is a very important story because it's showing that there is a healthy process at work here.

這是一個非常重要的故事，因為它表明，這裡有一個健康的過程在工作。

In fact, nine of the top bio pharmaceutical companies in the same week sent out a letter to say that even though they are essentially business rivals, they will be working together to ensure that scientific standards and ethical treatment of people when it comes to the actual administering of these Phase three trials and the concept of approving a vaccine will be held to the highest standards.

事實上，在同一周內，有9家頂級生物製藥公司發函表示，儘管他們本質上是商業對手，但他們將共同合作，以確保在實際進行這些三期試驗和準許疫苗的概念時，科學標準和道德對待人們。

This is interesting because when the vaccine is approved, there are still gonna be governing regulations that decide whether or not that vaccine gets into your country.

這很有趣，因為當疫苗被準許後，仍然會有管理條例來決定疫苗是否能進入你的國家。

So in America you have something like the FDA.

所以在美國，你有類似FDA的東西。

Here in Canada, we have Health Canada and all of the phase three trials that they're currently doing the information will be public.

在加拿大，我們有加拿大衛生部，他們目前正在做的所有三期試驗的資訊都會公開。

So governing bodies will still be able to see why that vaccine might have been approved from a scientific process and decide if they think as a government that it is ready to come into their country.

所以，管理機構仍然能夠從科學的過程中看到為什麼該疫苗可能會被準許，並決定作為政府是否認為該疫苗已經可以進入他們的國家。

So when it comes to you getting your vaccine, there is going to be companies going through Phase three trials with public scientific knowledge to decide whether or not that vaccine is safe for you.

所以，在你打疫苗的時候，會有公司通過三期試驗，用公共科學知識來決定這個疫苗對你是否安全。

But then also, there will be your own government making a decision whether or not that vaccine is safe for you.

但同時也會有你自己的政府做出決定，那個疫苗對你是否安全。

So thinking about timeline, it's just important to know that these Phase three trials were following these people for months to a year.

所以考慮到時間線的問題，只是要知道這些三期試驗是跟隨這些人幾個月到一年的時間。

So this is one of the reasons why, maybe next year in September 2021 you're still going to be chilling and locked down.

所以，這也是為什麼，也許明年2021年9月你還會被冷落和鎖定的原因之一。

But let's move on to some other factors that also may slow down this process.

但是，讓我們繼續看看其他一些也可能減緩這一進程的因素。

The first vaccine that is approved may not be the most efficient.

第一個獲批的疫苗未必是最有效的。

It may not be the one that you end up getting because, for example, another vaccine might get approved.

它可能不是你最終要接種的疫苗，因為，例如，另一種疫苗可能會被準許。

That doesn't need to be refrigerated.

那不需要冷藏。

Therefore, it is a more efficient vaccine.

是以，它是一種更有效的疫苗。

The first vaccine approved May Onley cause immunity for six months and need booster shots, whereas another vaccine again create a better or more strong immune response within people.

準許的第一種疫苗五月Onley導致免疫力六個月，需要加強注射，而另一種疫苗再次創建一個更好或更強的免疫反應內的人。

There are also some interesting vaccine potentials that might involve just topical applications, which again would be even more efficient.

還有一些有趣的疫苗潛力，可能只涉及局部應用，這同樣會更加有效。

So one other important part of this is that the first approved vaccine doesn't mean that we stop all the other trials.

所以還有一個重要的部分是，第一個獲批的疫苗並不意味著我們停止其他所有的試驗。

The other trials need to continue because the most efficient vaccine may not be the first approved.

其他試驗需要繼續進行，因為最有效的疫苗可能不是第一個被準許的。

So once approved, how many of these vaccines are we going to need in order to halt transmission of the virus within a population?

那麼，一旦獲得準許，我們需要多少種疫苗才能阻止病毒在人群中的傳播？

It's expected that 60 to 70% of that population needs to be immune.

預計其中60-70%的人群需要有免疫力。

But that's still not going to prevent Koster's of outbreaks within people who are susceptible to the virus.

但這仍然無法防止易受病毒感染的人體內爆發的考斯特的。

For example, the largest vaccine producer is in India, called the Serum Institute of India.

例如，最大的疫苗生產商在印度，叫印度血清研究所。

It's in puny, and they can create 60 to 70 million vaccines.

它是在小數，他們可以創造6000萬到7000萬個疫苗。

Pirmin AstraZeneca actually has a relationship with the specific factories to make one billion of their potential vaccines.

皮爾明阿斯利康公司其實和具體的工廠有關係，要製造10億支他們潛在的疫苗。

The United States Canada, U, United Kingdom.

美國加拿大、U、英國。

They have all ordered already million's of vaccines from a variety of manufacturers, enough to produce vaccines for their populations over and over and over.

他們都已經從各種廠家訂購了上百萬的疫苗，足以為他們的民眾不斷地生產疫苗。

Which brings us to an important part of this conversation, which is that wealthier countries are likely going to have more access to these vaccines.

這給我們帶來了這次對話的一個重要部分，那就是較富裕的國家可能會有更多的機會獲得這些疫苗。

The fact that a lot of these manufacturing processes are linked with the capitalist idea of wealthy countries being able to bid the highest for the vaccine.

事實上，這些生產過程中，很多都與資本主義思想有關，富裕的國家能夠出價最高的疫苗。

We need to talk about this.

我們需要談談這個。

I think be prepared for what is gonna happen in regards to this So we can understand how we have conversations about this in the coming year because the wealthier countries need to figure out how we can also support people in other countries who maybe don't have the money to get their hands on the vaccine.

我認為要為即將發生的事情做好準備，關於這一點，所以我們可以瞭解我們如何在未來一年內進行對話，因為較富裕的國家需要弄清楚我們如何也可以支持其他國家的人，他們可能沒有錢獲得他們的疫苗。

First, the idea that countries are gonna buy and have a vaccine first can lead to something called vaccine nationalism.

首先，各國都要先購買和擁有疫苗的想法，會導致一種叫做疫苗民族主義的東西。

And a lot of people are coming together.

而且很多人都是一起來的。

Ethicists, scientists to try and figure out codes of conduct and actually think about it from a administrative level how we can share this vaccine, because if there's one thing that we've learned in the process of going through a global pandemic, is that your only as strong as your weakest link, The W.

倫理學家、科學家們試圖找出行為準則，並從行政層面思考如何分享這種疫苗，因為如果說在經歷全球大流行的過程中，我們學到了一件事，那就是隻有最薄弱的環節才是最強大的，W。

H.

H.

O.

O.

Is suggesting that we give the vaccine to countries based on their population, starting with 3% of their population and moving towards 20% of their population across the world, starting with healthcare workers and people who are over 65 some other administrative policies air thinking, Why don't we just focus on how many people are above 65 populations how maney healthcare workers there are and just inoculate them in every country.

是建議我們根據各國的人口給他們注射疫苗，從3%的人口開始，到全世界20%的人口，從醫護人員和65歲以上的人開始一些其他的行政政策空氣思考，為什麼我們不只關注65歲以上的人口有多少人maney醫護人員有多少人，只是在每個國家給他們接種。

But again, this is interesting, because from a socioeconomic perspective, wealthier countries actually have more health care workers, and they actually have older populations.

但是，這又很有意思，因為從社會經濟的角度來看，更富裕的國家實際上有更多的醫護人員，而且他們實際上有更老的人口。

So then again, are we leaving non wealthier countries out?

那麼話說回來，我們是不是把非富裕國家排除在外了？

This has led to something called the Fair Priority model, which is designed by ethicists and scientists.

這就產生了一種叫做 "公平優先 "的模式，它是由倫理學家和科學家設計的。

And it's a code of conduct that we can talk to politicians and you can now understand toe.

而這是一個行為準則，我們可以和政治家對話，你現在可以理解趾。

Place yourself in 2021 when these conversations are starting to happen.

把自己放在2021年，當這些對話開始發生的時候。

The fair priority model is designed to limit harm, prioritize the disadvantaged and give equal moral concern to all individuals.

公平優先模式旨在限制傷害，優先考慮弱勢群體，給予所有人平等的道德關懷。

The need for this type of document and concept is because, inevitably, wealthy nations are going to end up with the vaccine first.

之所以需要這類文件和概念，是因為，富裕的國家最終必然會先用上疫苗。

So right now there are a lot of international organizations G 20 leaders coming together to figure out how they could not draw lines in the sand with borders when it comes to how we bring this vaccine to the world.

所以現在有很多國際組織G20的領導人在一起想，當我們如何把這個疫苗帶到世界上的時候，他們怎麼能不用邊界在沙子上劃線。

In fact, many people are applauding India right now, as a country that makes so many vaccines, they are already figuring out how they can set enough aside for people in nations that will need them.

其實，現在很多人都在為印度鼓掌，作為一個製造了這麼多疫苗的國家，他們已經在想辦法為那些需要疫苗的國家的人們留出足夠的疫苗。

Many of these manufacturing companies are going to be thinking about the highest bidder when it comes to administering the vaccine.

這些生產企業在注射疫苗的時候，很多都會想著價高者得。

But I think it's important that we understand how many have been ordered from Canada and America more than the population.

但我認為，我們必須瞭解有多少人是從加拿大和美國訂購的，而不是人口。

So we have to make sure we aren't hoarding these things and understanding that the world is becoming too cove in 19 not just the countries that we live in.

所以我們要確保我們不是在囤積這些東西，要明白這個世界正在變得太cove在19不僅僅是我們生活的國家。

And no matter what country you are in, there's going to be a focus on individuals who are over 65 healthcare workers, teachers and the immuno compromised first before the general public is administered with the vaccine.

而不管你在哪個國家，都會先關注65歲以上的醫護人員、教師和免疫力受損的個人，然後再給普通民眾注射疫苗。

And so for these reasons, there is a good chance that next year we'll have an approved vaccine, but you might not have got it.

所以基於這些原因，明年我們很有可能會有一種被準許的疫苗，但你可能還沒有得到。

But that doesn't mean that we're not going to be well on our way to inoculating the world or at least getting some of these systems in place to figure out how we're going to do it and We also just may be totally wrong.

但這並不意味著我們不會很好地在我們的方式來接種世界或至少得到一些這些系統的地方，以找出我們將如何做到這一點，我們也只是可能是完全錯誤的。

Something else could happen again.

別的事情可能會再次發生。

This is also unknown.

這也是未知數。

This is just based on the most current up to date research about how this vaccine will be administered.

這只是基於最新的關於這種疫苗如何接種的研究。

I personally I'm obsessed with this information because it gives me Solis.

我個人我很迷戀這些資訊，因為它給我索利斯。

It kind of helps me be a little bit more at peace to sort of understand what experts are saying, what the smartest people in the room are saying and to prepare myself for what to expect.

這有點幫助我更平靜地瞭解專家們在說什麼，房間裡最聰明的人在說什麼，併為自己的預期做好準備。

For example, maybe not getting a vaccine for another year in order to plan my life.

比如說，為了規劃自己的人生，也許一年內都不會再打疫苗。

Now some people, I think ignorance is bliss.

現在有些人，我覺得無知是幸福的。

I have friends asked me about the vaccine, and when I tell them this information there, like I wish I didn't know that.

我有朋友問我關於疫苗的事情，當我告訴他們這些資訊的時候，就像我希望我不知道一樣。

So it's not for everyone.

所以不是每個人都適合。

But if you know people in your life who you think would appreciate the preparation or at least this understanding, feel free to share this with them.

但是，如果你認識你生活中的人，你認為他們會感激這種準備或至少這種理解，請隨時與他們分享。

Either way, this is fascinating world changing information that is going to be necessary as we figure out how to bring a vaccine to the world for a global pandemic.

無論哪種方式，這都是改變世界的迷人資訊，這將是必要的，因為我們要弄清楚如何為全球大流行帶來疫苗。