It was the economist Milton Friedman who once said: "Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change."

經濟學家 Milton Friedman 曾經說過：「唯有危機—實際的危機或感知—才能產生真正的變化」。

But what kind of change can we expect in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic?

但是，我們可以預期在新冠肺炎後，發生什麼樣的變化呢？

And will it be change for the better?

它會變得更好嗎？

History may give us some answers.

歷史可能會給我們一些答案。

By the summer of 1349 the Black Death had killed nearly 50 % of the population of England.

1349 年的夏天，黑死病已經害死了英國近 50% 的人口。

There was a "second wave" of the plague in 1361 which killed another 20%.

1361 年發生了「第二波 」瘟疫，又害死了 20% 的人口。

A disaster, yes, but the plague did something which had begun to look impossible...

沒錯，這是一場災難，但瘟疫卻做了一些看似不可能的事情...

It stopped the 100 Years' War – the series of bloody conflicts between England and France.

它阻止了百年的英法戰爭和一系列流血衝突。

There was also a profound labor shortage, because so many people had died which put those who survived in a stronger position.

勞動力嚴重短缺，因為有許多人喪命，使那些倖存者處於更有利的地位。

Eventually, the exploitative feudal system - under which peasants swore allegiance to lords in exchange for a patch of land and some protection collapsed.

最後，剝削性的封建制度崩盤了，而在這種制度下農民向領主宣誓效忠，以換取一塊土地和一些保護。

Fast forward to 1918, and another devastating wave of disease was sweeping the world.

快轉到 1918 年，又是一場毀滅性的疾病浪潮席捲全球。

The so-called Spanish flu, although it didn't actually come from Spain, spread through crowded troop transports and munitions factories towards the end of the First World War.

這所謂的西班牙流感，雖然實際上它不是來自西班牙，但它在第一次世界大戰結束時，傳播至擁擠的部隊運輸和軍需工廠。

By the end of the pandemic, more than 50 million people had died.

疫情結束時，有超過 5000 萬人死亡。

But it did give rise to a new understanding of infectious diseases.

但它確實讓人們對傳染病有了新的認識。

And that spurred the development of public health systems across the developed world.

這促進了已開發國家公共衛生系統的發展。

As scientists and governments realized that the best defense against pandemics was at a societal rather than an individual level.

因為科學家和政府都意識到防範流行病的最好方法是以整個社會為單位，而不是個人。

Calls for a unified medical service in the UK date back even earlier but it wasn't until after the Second World War, in 1948, that Britain's National Health Service was launched.

英國呼籲建立統一醫療服務可以追溯到更早的時候，但它是直到 1948 年第二次世界大戰結束後，國民保健署才得以施行。

According to the NHS's official historian, Charles Webster, the Luftwaffe: " achieved in months what had defeated politicians and planners for at least two decades".

根據國民保健署的官方歷史學家 Charles Webster 的說法，德國空軍：「在幾個月內實現了至少 20 年來讓政治家和規劃者們失望的事情」。

We only gave you part of Milton Friedman's famous quote earlier.

剛才我們只講了 Milton Friedman 名言的一部分。

He went on to say: " When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around."

他接著說：「當這種危機的發生時，採取的行動會取決於周圍的想法」。

As well as the launch of free universal healthcare in the UK, the post-war period saw the adoption of other radical ideas that were "lying around" at the time, including the rapid nationalization of industry and the creation of the modern welfare state.

除了在英國推出免費的全民醫療服務外，戰後時期還採用了當時的其他激進思想，包括工業迅速的國有化和現代福祉的創立。

Globally, institutions such as the United Nations were set up, determined to prevent future wars through international cooperation and diplomacy.

在全球範圍內，像是聯合國機構的成立是透過國際合作和外交防止未來的爭端。

Will the aftermath of coronavirus leave us with similarly fertile ground in which new ideas might flourish?

新冠肺炎的後果是否也會帶來豐盛的收穫，讓我們有蓬勃發展的新思想呢？

Will it kick start new ways of living, working and travelling?

它是否會開創新的生活、工作或旅行的方式呢？

Or make us think again about our attitudes to consumption or our responsibilities to one another?

或者讓我們重新思考我們的消費心態和我們彼此之間的關係呢？

Will ideas such as a universal basic income, virtual education or even healthcare delivered by robots become logical next steps in a profoundly altered world?

在這個變化多端的世界裡，諸如全民基本收入、虛擬教育甚至醫療等理念，進一步的發展是否會由機器人替代呢？

Or will we pick up where we left off, as if nothing had happened?

或是我們從頭再來，彷彿什麼都沒發生過？

And if there is to be change, who will decide if it's change for the better?

如果要改變，會是由誰來決定它是否會有更好的改變呢？

After all, not all the ideas lying around will prove to be the right ones.

畢竟，並非所有存在的想法都會被證明是正確的。