Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

由 AI 自動生成
  • For more than 10,000 years, the average global temperature

    一萬多年來,全球平均氣溫

  • didn't change by more than 1 degree Celsius.

    沒有變化超過1攝氏度。

  • But then humans started burning fossil fuels,

    但後來人類開始燃燒化石燃料。

  • around here.

    在這裡。

  • Today, global temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times.

    如今,自工業化前時代以來,全球氣溫已經上升了約1攝氏度。

  • This is what that looks like so far:

    這就是目前的樣子。

  • Storms have gotten more intense,

    暴風雪變得更猛烈了。

  • wildfires are more common,

    野火比較常見。

  • and ancient glaciers are melting faster and faster.

    而古冰川的融化速度越來越快。

  • And that's just one degree of warming.

    而這僅僅是升溫了一度。

  • Without global action, the world is on track to warm at least 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

    如果不採取全球行動,到2100年,世界將至少升高3攝氏度。

  • This would be catastrophic.

    這將是災難性的。

  • That's why most scientists agree that we need to limit global warming to this range,

    所以大多數科學家都認為,我們需要將全球變暖限制在這個範圍內。

  • between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.

    1.5至2攝氏度之間。

  • Carbon dioxide, which is emitted when we burn fossil fuels,

    二氧化碳,是我們燃燒化石燃料時排放的。

  • accounts for most of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

    佔世界溫室氣體排放的大部分。

  • It's the main culprit behind climate change.

    它是氣候變化的罪魁禍首。

  • And to limit global warming to the degree that scientists are calling for,

    並將全球變暖限制在科學家呼籲的程度。

  • we have to stop releasing it.

    我們必須停止釋放它。

  • We have todecarbonize.”

    我們必須 "去碳化"。

  • The US doesn't currently emit the most carbon dioxide of any country.

    美國目前並不是所有國家中二氧化碳排放量最多的國家。

  • But as one of the oldest industrial powers, it's emitted more carbon dioxide in total

    但作為最古老的工業大國之一,它排放的二氧化碳總量更多。

  • than any other country or region.

    比任何其他國家或地區。

  • So America has a big role to play in decarbonizing.

    所以美國在低碳化方面有很大的作用。

  • But how is the US supposed to do that?

    但美國該如何做呢?

  • And is it actually possible?

    而實際上是否可能呢?

  • If you want to get halfway there by 2030, you have to start now.

    如果你想在2030年達到一半的目標,你必須現在就開始。

  • Now. Going fast.

    現在就去進展很快

  • There is literally zero more time to waste.

    浪費的時間簡直為零。

  • Dave writes about energy and climate for Vox.

    戴夫為Vox撰寫關於能源和氣候的文章。

  • And he says the 2020 US election comes with fairly clear stakes.

    而他表示,2020年美國大選的利害關係相當明確。

  • If Trump is reelected, that's it. Like there's no chance for 1.5.

    如果特朗普連任,那就。就像1.5的機會都沒有。

  • And probably all chances for 2 degrees are gone.

    而且可能2度的機會都沒有了。

  • The United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord.”

    "美國將退出巴黎氣候協定"

  • “...open up the coal mines.”

    "... ...打開煤礦。"

  • “...new offshore oil and gas leasing program.”

    "...新的近海石油和天然氣租賃計劃。"

  • President Trump doesn't have a climate policy.

    特朗普總統沒有氣候政策。

  • And his reelection will most likely continue policies designed to boost the fossil fuel industry.

    而他的連任很可能會延續旨在促進化石燃料產業發展的政策。

  • They'd increase carbon emissions instead of decreasing them.

    他們會增加碳排放而不是減少碳排放。

  • And the effects would be felt globally.

    而且會在全球範圍內產生影響。

  • You just can't have the world's second biggest economy opting out,

    你就是不能讓世界第二大經濟體選擇退出。

  • moving kin the opposite direction, and expect the world to get there.

    向著相反的方向前進,並期望世界能到達那裡。

  • The other major candidate in the election does have a plan to address climate change.

    選舉中的另一位主要候選人確實有應對氣候變化的計劃。

  • And this part of it in particular is ambitious:

    而這部分尤其是雄心勃勃。

  • Biden has been convinced and pushed to the point that he's got a great climate plan.

    拜登已經被說服了,被推到了他有一個偉大的氣候計劃的地步。

  • What Biden's plan doesn't get into are the details on exactly how the US would actually do that.

    拜登的計劃沒有涉及到的是美國究竟會如何做的細節。

  • But there are people who have thought about what it might look like to decarbonize by 2050.

    但也有人思考過到2050年實現低碳化會是什麼樣子。

  • And to understand that, it helps to get a picture of where America's energy comes from,

    而要了解這一點,有助於瞭解美國能源的來源。

  • and where it goes.

    以及它的去向。

  • [Scream]

    [尖叫]

  • Sorry, my son nearly stepped on a snake.

    對不起,我兒子差點踩到一條蛇。

  • Do you want to say hi?

    你想打招呼嗎?

  • This is Saul Griffith. He's a physicist, and an engineer, but this is how Dave describes him:

    這是索爾-格里菲斯,他是個物理學家,也是個工程師。他是個物理學家,也是個工程師,但戴夫是這樣描述他的。

  • Probably the person who knows more about energy as it's used in the United States

    可能是對美國的能源使用情況比較瞭解的人吧

  • than any other human being.

    比其他任何人都要好。

  • A few years ago, Saul decided to make a model of America's energy use.

    幾年前,索爾決定做一個美國能源使用的模型。

  • He ended up reading basically every available piece of data, from...

    他最後閱讀了所有可用的數據,從... ...

  • ...the Energy Information Administration,

    ...能源資訊管理局。

  • Department of Transportation,

    交通部。

  • the National Highway Transit Authority,

    國家公路運輸局;

  • the Census Bureau,

    人口普查局。

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics,

    勞工統計局。

  • and NOAA.

    和諾阿。

  • And so we pulled all of those together to build a very comprehensive picture of the US energy economy.

    所以我們把所有的這些東西整合在一起,建立了一個非常全面的美國能源經濟的圖景。

  • That picture of the US energy economy?

    那張美國能源經濟的圖片?

  • It looks like this:

    它看起來像這樣。

  • If you're just looking at the whole thing at once, it just looks like a big pile of spaghetti.

    如果你一下子就看完了,就像一大堆麵條。

  • It's hard to make sense of, but it just traces energy, every unit of energy.

    這很難理解,但它只是追蹤能量,每一個組織、部門的能量。

  • How does it enter the economy? How is it used throughout the economy?

    它是如何進入經濟領域的?它在整個經濟中是如何使用的?

  • This kind of chart is called a Sankey diagram. And it's easier to understand in 3 sections.

    這種圖叫桑基圖。而且分為3個部分,比較容易理解。

  • These columns here on the left are the sources of all the energy used in the US,

    左邊這幾欄是美國所有能源的來源。

  • like natural gas, coal, solar, wind, nuclear, and oil.

    如天然氣、煤炭、太陽能、風能、核能和石油。

  • This column in the middle is what those energy sources get converted into.

    中間這一列就是這些能源的轉化。

  • So a lot of it becomes electricity. Most oil becomes the fuel we use for transportation.

    所以很多都變成了電。大部分的石油變成了我們用來運輸的燃料。

  • And here, you can see how much natural gas energy is being used to generate electricity,

    而在這裡,你可以看到有多少天然氣能源被用於發電。

  • versus being used directly to power things like cooking stoves.

    與直接用來給灶具等東西供電。

  • And over here on the right? This is where all the energy is used,

    右邊這裡呢?這裡是所有能源的使用地。

  • broken down into incredible detail.

    細分到不可思議的細節。

  • Like how much energy is used to light shopping malls in the US.

    比如美國的商場照明用了多少能源。

  • Or how much energy is used by vehicles driven for work.

    或者說工作所開的車輛消耗了多少能源。

  • So you start to get this incredibly detailed picture of all of the interconnections,

    所以,你開始得到這個令人難以置信的詳細的圖片 所有的相互連接。

  • which is really, really important when you do the next exercise:

    這是真的,真的很重要,當你做下一個練習。

  • what happens if we decarbonize?

    如果我們脫碳會怎樣?

  • Remember that carbon emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels. This stuff.

    記住,碳排放來自於化石燃料的燃燒。這個東西。

  • And Saul says that means that to decarbonize, we just need to follow their path.

    而索爾說,這就意味著,要想實現低碳化,我們只需要沿著他們的道路走下去。

  • The first place that leads you is here, with electricity and the energy we use to generate it

    第一個引導你的地方就是這裡,有了電和我們用來發電的能源--。

  • the majority of which, in the US, comes from two kinds of fossil fuel: natural gas and coal.

    在美國,其中大部分來自兩種化石燃料:天然氣和煤炭。

  • If the US wants to decarbonize, it needs to stop getting electricity this way,

    如果美國想實現低碳化,就需要停止通過這種方式獲取電力。

  • and replace it with other decarbonized energy sources.

    並以其他低碳化能源取而代之。

  • That means coal power plants - gone.

    這意味著煤電廠--消失了。

  • Gas power — gone.

    燃氣動力--消失了。

  • All electricity would come from renewable sources

    所有電力將來自可再生資源--------。

  • wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric, and biomass. Or, nuclear energy.

    風能、太陽能、地熱能、水能和生物質能。或者,核能。

  • Decarbonizing the way we get electricity would be a huge investment.

    使我們獲取電力的方式脫碳將是一項巨大的投資。

  • But it would also only eliminate 20% of emissions.

    但也只能消除20%的排放。

  • And that's because electricity and energy are not exactly the same thing.

    而這是因為電和能源並不是完全一樣的東西。

  • That doesn't solve vehicles' emissions.

    這並不能解決車輛的排放問題。

  • It doesn't solve your heating emissions from using natural gas or fuel oil in your basement.

    它不能解決您在地下室使用天然氣或燃油的供暖排放問題。

  • All these other parts of the economy draw their energy directly from fossil fuels.

    所有這些經濟的其他部分都直接從化石燃料中獲取能源。

  • Like transportation: We use oil for fuel.

    就像交通。我們用石油做燃料。

  • And commercial and residential buildings, where we use gas and oil for heat.

    而商住樓,我們使用燃氣和燃油供熱。

  • But Saul says there's a kind of elegant solution to this:

    但索爾說有一種優雅的解決方案。

  • you decarbonize these sectors by switching their energy source

    你通過改變這些部門的能源來源來實現脫碳。

  • from here, to here.

    從這裡,到這裡。

  • Make all of it electric.

    讓所有的電。

  • Because we already have almost all of the technology we need to do it.

    因為我們已經擁有了幾乎所有的技術,我們需要做到這一點。

  • Heat pumps, batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, nuclear power plants.

    熱泵、電池、電動汽車、風力發電機、核電站。

  • We know that that can work. We know we can do electric cars.

    我們知道,這可以工作。我們知道我們可以做電動汽車。

  • We know we can do electric heat for nearly everything.

    我們知道,我們幾乎什麼都可以做電熱。

  • It's all in the end just about machines, right?

    說到底都只是機器的問題,對吧?

  • We've got a bunch of machines that use fossil fuel energy.

    我們有一堆使用化石燃料能源的機器。

  • We need to replace them with machines that use clean electricity.

    我們需要用使用清潔電力的機器來代替它們。

  • And so it really just comes down to a matter of industrial capacity:

    所以,這其實只是一個產業能力的問題。

  • How fast can you build machines?

    你能以多快的速度製造機器?

  • There are some things we'd have a harder time decarbonizing.

    有些事情我們會更難脫碳。

  • Air travel will rely on fossil fuels until alternative technologies get better.

    在替代技術變得更好之前,航空旅行將依賴化石燃料。

  • And things like steel and concrete are really hard to manufacture without fossil fuels.

    而像鋼鐵和混凝土這樣的東西,如果沒有化石燃料,真的很難製造。

  • But if we decarbonized as much as possible with the technology that we have now,

    但如果我們用現在的技術儘可能地去碳化。

  • it would end most of the US's carbon emissions.

    它將結束美國大部分的碳排放。

  • This chart shows the country's carbon emissions broken down by economic sector.

    這張圖顯示了該國按經濟部門劃分的碳排放量。

  • If electricity, residential, commercial, and transportation were mostly decarbonized,

    如果電力、住宅、商業、交通大多實現了低碳化。

  • you'd have solved a lot of the problem.

    你已經解決了很多問題。

  • All of this would be a huge undertaking. And it needs to happen fast.

    所有這些都將是一項巨大的工程。而且需要快速進行。

  • Saul's research modeled different scenarios

    索爾的研究模擬了不同的場景

  • for the transition from fossil fuel-based machines to electric ones:

    為從使用化石燃料的機器過渡到電動機器。

  • From a market-driven transition, to carbon taxes,

    從市場驅動的轉型,到碳稅。

  • to a much more direct and heavy-handed approach that would replace our machines with

    以更直接、更嚴厲的方式來取代我們的機器。

  • their electric counterparts very quickly.

    他們的電動同行很快。

  • And he found that because we've delayed action for so long,

    而他發現,因為我們耽誤了這麼久的行動。

  • none of these slower approaches will be enough.

    這些較慢的方法都是不夠的。

  • If you went back to 2000 and started then, you could just put like a modest carbon tax in place

    如果你回到2000年,從那時開始,你可以把像一個適度的碳稅的地方。

  • and it would have just eased us down over the course of 30 years or whatever.

    而且它只會讓我們在30年的時間裡輕鬆下來,或者是什麼。

  • But emissions kept rising and rising and rising.

    但排放量一直在上升,不斷上升,不斷上升。

  • So now to get where we need to go, they got to fall off a cliff.

    所以現在要想去哪裡,他們就得掉下懸崖。

  • And that means zero delay.

    而這意味著零延遲。

  • We're just talking about a level of industrial mobilization that none of us alive have seen.

    我們說的是我們活著的人都沒有見過的工業動員水準。

  • It would look like what FDR did to prepare us to prepare the US for war.

    這就像FDR為我們做的準備,讓美國做好戰爭準備。

  • Literally, every single solitary fossil fuel machine that goes out of service

    從字面上看,每一個單獨的化石燃料機器,停止使用。

  • is replaced by a clean energy alternative.

    被清潔能源替代。

  • Every furnace, car, factory, you name it.

    每一個爐子,汽車,工廠,你說的。

  • Nearly everyone is buying an electric vehicle,

    幾乎所有人都在購買電動車。

  • nearly everyone is buying rooftop solar, nearly every new power plant that comes online is

    幾乎每個人都在購買屋頂太陽能,幾乎每個新上線的電站都是

  • industrial scale solar, or industrial wind.

    工業規模的太陽能,或工業風能。

  • We need that level of effort to do a lot better than two degrees.

    我們需要這種程度的努力,比兩個學位要好很多。

  • All of recorded human history has happened within an era of relative climate stability.

    有記載的人類歷史都是在一個氣候相對穩定的時代發生的。

  • An era that's about to end.

    一個即將結束的時代。

  • But we still have control over what comes next.

    但我們仍然可以控制接下來的事情。

  • And the global effort that'll require hinges in part on what the US decides to do.

    而這需要的全球努力,部分取決於美國決定怎麼做。

  • America can decarbonize. We have the technology to do it. We have the resources.

    美國可以實現脫碳。我們有技術可以做到這一點。我們有資源。

  • The only question is whether we want to do it.

    唯一的問題是我們想不想做。

  • I have a six year old and an eleven year old, and I have to believe that's going to happen. Otherwise..

    我有一個六歲的孩子和一個十一歲的孩子 我必須相信這一切會發生。否則...

  • And I have to try to make that happen,

    而我必須努力實現這一點。

  • as long as possible,

    儘可能長的時間。

  • because it's their future we're stealing by not doing it.

    因為我們不這樣做就是在竊取他們的未來。

  • Thanks for watching this episode of our 2020 election series.

    感謝收看本期的2020年選舉系列節目。

  • We're focusing on the issues that matter most to you. And we got this topic requested by a lot of people.

    我們關注的是你最關心的問題。而我們得到了很多人要求的這個話題。

  • We want to know what you think the candidates should be talking about.

    我們想知道你認為候選人應該談論什麼。

  • Tell us at Vox.com/ElectionVideos.

    在Vox.com/ElectionVideos告訴我們。

For more than 10,000 years, the average global temperature

一萬多年來,全球平均氣溫

字幕與單字
由 AI 自動生成

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋