We've gone from that to the rise around the world off the three p's of polarization, populism and pessimism in the disaster of Brexit, with the basement levels of approval for our major party leaders unprecedented in modern times andan the sense that government is unable to tackle some of the most important issues we face.

我們已經從這一點到了世界各地的崛起，在Brexit的災難中，兩極化，民粹主義和悲觀主義的三個P，我們的主要政黨領導人的支持率在現代前所未有的地下室水準，以及政府無法解決我們面臨的一些最重要的問題的感覺。

I think we in England and in the UK have our own version off these democratic ills.

我想我們英國和英國有我們自己的版本，擺脫這些民主弊端。

Inequality is entrenched, social mobility has stalled, public services are crumbling and all around us are signs of social stress, from violent crime to higher levels off mental illness.

不平等現象根深蒂固，社會流動停滯不前，公共服務崩潰，我們周圍出現了社會壓力的跡象，從暴力犯罪到更高的精神疾病。

I think whatever happens now with Brexit, there is little evidence that the underlying anger and resentment that fueled it has subsided.

我認為無論現在Brexit發生了什麼，幾乎沒有證據表明助長它的潛在憤怒和怨恨已經消退。

Things are bad, but with the effects of Brexit still to play out with the wounds of this appallingly handled process, still raw with the underlying cause is still untouched on with right wing populists ever ready to exploit the situation.

事情是不好的，但隨著Brexit的影響仍在發揮與這個令人震驚的處理過程中的傷口，仍然生與根本原因仍未觸及上與右翼民粹主義者永遠準備利用這種情況。

I fear that things could get even worse.

我擔心事情會變得更糟糕。

So they seem to be two main ways that commentators have responded to the problems besetting liberal democracy on the first is to treat it as little more than a bump in the road.

是以，對於困擾自由民主的問題，評論家們似乎有兩種主要的應對方式，第一種是把它當作一個小坎兒。

For liberal warriors like Steven Pinker, who spoke here at the R S a last year, it can seem that we have nothing to be worried about but worry itself.

對於像史蒂文-平克這樣的自由主義戰士來說，他去年在R S a上的演講，似乎我們除了擔心本身，沒有什麼可擔心的。

People are healthier.

人們更健康。

They're better off their more tolerant, more peaceful than at any time in our history.

他們比我們歷史上任何時候都要好，他們更寬容，更和平。

To overcome public disillusionment, we merely need to reassert the benefits of market democracies and stop listening to self serving critics and populists.

要克服公眾的幻想，我們只需要重新確認市場民主的好處，不要再聽從自私自利的批評者和民粹主義者的意見。

And in a way, that's not a view that should be ignored.

而在某種程度上，這也是一種不容忽視的觀點。

In many ways, people today do have opportunities and a quality of life that a few generations ago would have been viewed with amazement by many.

在許多方面，今天的人們確實擁有了幾代人以前會被許多人驚奇地看待的機會和生活品質。

If we want to have hope for the future, it's clear that we do need to acknowledge the progress off the past, and in particular, I think we should recall the achievements of the post war era when brave governments rebuilt nations out of the ashes of war.

如果我們想對未來抱有希望，很明顯，我們確實需要承認過去的進步，特別是，我認為我們應該回顧戰後時代的成就，當時勇敢的政府從戰爭的廢墟中重建國家。

When they increased living standards, they grew modern welfare states and laid the foundations for the personal freedoms and legal rights.

當他們提高生活水準時，他們發展了現代福利國家，為個人自由和法律權利奠定了基礎。

But we now cherish, but nevertheless I reject the implicit complacency of that view and its lack of ambition.

但我們現在很珍惜，但儘管如此，我還是反對這種觀點的隱性自滿和缺乏雄心壯志。

It misses out the plight off the world's poorest billion.

它忽略了世界上最貧窮的十億人的困境。

It misses the way our own and other liberal democracies have in recent decades, and particularly the period since the credit crunch been scarred by entrenched inequality by rising insecurity on the devastation of our public services.

它忽略了我們自己和其他自由民主國家近幾十年來，特別是自信貸緊縮以來的時期，由於根深蒂固的不平等現象，由於日益嚴重的不安全感，使我們的公共服務遭受破壞，而留下了傷痕。

But also I rejected, because this story of continuous progress has a cruel twist.

但也被我拒絕了，因為這個不斷進步的故事有著殘酷的轉折。

The growing and devastating impact of market led economic growth on our environment and the looming climate crisis.

市場主導的經濟增長對我們的環境和迫在眉睫的氣候危機產生了日益嚴重的破壞性影響。

The alternative view is more gloomy.

另一種觀點是比較陰暗的。

It sees no way back for liberal democracy.

它認為自由民主沒有退路。

It predicts the future, which involves ever greater polarization and social conflict, leading eventually to some kind of breakdown.

它預測了未來，這涉及到越來越大的兩極分化和社會衝突，最終導致某種崩潰。

One, perhaps, in which the role of democracy has downgraded and society is increasingly run by a technocratic elite who may or may not have benign intentions a kind of one party rule by Google or Facebook if you like.

也許，在其中，民主的作用已經降級，社會越來越多地由技術官僚精英管理，他們可能有或沒有善意的意圖，一種由谷歌或Facebook（如果你喜歡）的一黨統治。

And indeed there are some in the environment movement itself who watch the growing commitment of China to tackle environmental harms and climate change, and then in despair, tender eyes across the Atlantic at a country that increasingly accepts the reality of climate change but has put a proud deny it in office now.

而事實上，環境運動本身也有一些人，他們看著中國越來越多地承諾解決環境危害和氣候變化問題，然後在絕望中，在大西洋彼岸溫柔地看著一個越來越接受氣候變化現實的國家，但現在卻把一個驕傲地否認它的國家放在辦公室裡。

The evidence used to suggest that democracies were lower emitters, that they were better at taking steps on climate change, them authoritarian regimes.

證據表明，民主國家的排放量較低，它們更善於採取措施應對氣候變化，而專制政權。

But recent research from the University of Gothenburg argues that that's only the case in well functioning democracies free from corruption.

但哥德堡大學最近的研究認為，只有在沒有腐敗的運作良好的民主國家才會出現這種情況。

So the point is that it's not simply being notionally democratic.

所以，問題的關鍵是，這不是簡單的觀念上的民主。

That is enough.

這就夠了。

It's also the quality of that democracy that matters.

重要的還是這種民主的品質。

And that's why I adopt a slightly different position on the crisis off liberal democracy.

這就是為什麼我對自由民主的危機採取了稍微不同的立場。

I think the way to save it is to keep its core principles, of course, free and fair elections, the rule of law, freedom of speech and association, but fundamentally to change the way it works.

我認為拯救它的方法是保留它的核心原則，當然是自由公平的選舉、法治、言論和結社自由，但從根本上改變它的運作方式。

My anxiety here is that the great success story off liberal representative constitutional democracy organized around professional political parties, offering programs using mass communication and organized around elections, the 20th century success story of democracy.

我在這裡的焦慮是，自由代議制憲政民主的偉大成功故事，圍繞著專業政黨組織，提供使用大眾傳播的方案，圍繞著選舉組織，20世紀民主的成功故事。

One of its great merits was that It serves really effectively as a warning system when things were about to go wrong.

它的一大優點是，當事情即將發生時，它能真正有效地作為一種警告制度。

So these dump democracies aren't always the best coming up with the right solution first time, round or even second time around.

所以這些垃圾民主國家不一定是第一次、一輪甚至第二次就能拿出正確的解決方案的最佳人選。

But they're very, very good hearing the bad news faster than any rival system.

但他們非常非常擅長聽到壞消息，比任何競爭對手的系統都要快。

Famously, you do not get famines under this kind of politics.

著名的是，在這樣的政治下，你不會得到饑荒。

I'm not sure this challenge the climate emergency fits that model.

我不確定這個挑戰氣候緊急事件是否符合這個模式。

The information is all out there.

資料都在那裡。

We know it.

我們知道這一點。

And here we are, behaving like this.

而我們在這裡，表現得像這樣。

And like this, I mean our politics.

而像這樣，我指的是我們的政治。

What if the warning signals aren't working?

警示信號不靈怎麼辦？

What if we could carry on like this long past the point where we needed to act?

如果我們能像這樣長久地進行下去，到了需要行動的時候，會怎麼樣呢？

I completely recognize the need for all the things that Caroline talked about.

我完全認識到卡洛琳所說的所有事情的必要性。

This system needs all of that.

這個系統需要這些。

But extinction rebellion poses a different kind of challenge about other forms of democratic politics which are much more radical and much more direct.

但是，滅絕性反叛對其他形式的民主政治提出了不同的挑戰，這些民主政治更加激進，更加直接。

And I think we have to be open to that possibility to that as we move forward through the next generation or more.

我認為我們必須對這種可能性持開放態度，因為我們要通過下一代或更多的人向前邁進。

There are points at which we mustn't think that democratic reform is all about rescuing this woman politics.

有幾點，我們不要以為民主改革就是為了拯救這個女人政治。

We have to be open to the possibility that the 2.5 1000 years stories still got a long, long way to run on.

我們必須對2.5千年的故事還有很長很長的路要走的可能性持開放態度。

We can be collectively masters of our own fate.

我們可以集體主宰自己的命運。

But even the 250 year story and certainly the 50 100 years story at some point will need to be replaced with something else, Theo.

但即使是250年的故事，當然還有50年100年的故事，在某些時候也需要用別的東西來代替，西奧。