it lasted ten years and crashed the entire economy.

它持續了十年，使整個經濟崩潰。

The American leadership tried everything to save the economy but nothing worked out, every

美國領導層想盡一切辦法來挽救經濟，但都沒有成功，每一個

solution proved to be ineffective in the face of such a crisis, and the only thing that

事實證明，面對這樣的危機，這個解決方案是無效的，唯一的辦法是，將其作為一種新的解決方案。

could save the economy was the deadliest war in human history (WW2).

能拯救經濟的是人類歷史上最致命的戰爭（二戰）。

Its July of the year 1914, world war one breaks up, and the entire European continent is in

1914年7月，第一次世界大戰爆發了，整個歐洲大陸都陷入了困境。

conflict, but the war slowly spreads to the rest of the world.

衝突，但戰爭慢慢蔓延到世界其他地區。

Everyone is eager to win, but unfortunately, supplies are limited especially food.

每個人都渴望勝利，但不幸的是，物資有限，尤其是食物。

So the allies turn to the United States for help, since it wasn't directly affected

所以盟國向美國求救，因為它沒有受到直接影響。

by the war and had the economic power to do that.

由戰爭，並有經濟實力做到這一點。

War by no means is good, but it brought a period of economic prosperity to the United

戰爭絕非好事，但它給美國帶來了一段經濟繁榮的時期。

States.

國家：

The demand for equipment, weapons, wheat was at an all-time high, and no one else could

裝備、武器、小麥的需求量空前高漲，沒有人可以

fill that gap except the US.

填補了這一空白，除了美國。

If you were a farmer, you could produce as much wheat as you wanted and could sell it

如果你是一個農民，你可以生產出你想要的小麥，並且可以賣掉它

easily at a high price.

容易以高價。

Since countries with troops at the battlefield had to take any measures to win the war.

由於在戰場上有軍隊的國家必須採取任何措施來贏得戰爭。

By the end of the war, the United States also entered the game which further increased the

到了戰爭結束後，美國也加入了這場遊戲，這進一步增加了。

demand since soldiers needed equipment and food.

需求，因為阿兵哥需要裝備和食物。

It was probably the best time to invest since the economy was booming and everyone was making

這可能是最好的投資時機，因為經濟蓬勃發展，每個人都在賺錢。

money.

錢。

Even though the war has ended by 1918.

儘管到1918年戰爭已經結束。

The demand for American goods especially wheat didn't fall because the entire world was

對美國商品尤其是小麥的需求並沒有下降，因為整個世界都是

still recovering.

還在恢復中。

When farmers realized that, they began taking huge loans to buy more land and equipment

當農民意識到這一點後，他們開始大量貸款購買更多的土地和設備。

to farm more wheat.

來種植更多的小麥。

Which led the real estate prices to grow.

從而導致房地產價格的增長。

That pushed people to buy even more lands hoping to sell it later for a higher price.

這就促使人們購買更多的土地，希望以後能以更高的價格出售。

The same thing was happening to every other industry.

同樣的事情發生在其他每個行業。

In fact, many companies emerged that only existed on paper but didn't even have the

事實上，很多公司的出現，只是存在於紙面上，但卻根本不具備

equipment or land because everyone was throwing money into the stock market hoping to make

設備或土地，因為每個人都把錢投進股市，希望能賺取

a fortune, which further escalated the prices.

一筆錢，使價格進一步攀升。

Would you really stand aside and watch how your neighbors make money while you get nothing.

你真的會站在一旁看著鄰居怎麼賺錢，而你卻什麼都沒有得到。

Even foreign countries started investing in the united states hoping to make a buck.

甚至外國也開始在美國投資，希望能賺一筆。

I guess you can already see the flow.

我想你已經可以看到流程了。

Many companies were overpriced since most of these investments were based on speculations.

許多公司的價格過高，因為這些投資大多是基於投機。

Nonetheless, that didn't stop people from investing.

儘管如此，這並沒有阻止人們投資的腳步。

People had faith in the economy.

人們對經濟有信心。

When things are good, you start thinking that it's going to be like that forever.

當事情好的時候，你就會開始想，會永遠這樣。

What seems so obvious today wasn't obvious then.

今天看來很明顯的事情，在當時並不明顯。

However, When Europe started recovering, the demand for American goods fell, especially

然而，當歐洲開始復甦時，對美國商品的需求下降了，特別是在歐洲，美國商品的需求下降了。

for wheat, since other counties began to grow wheat as well.

為小麥，因為其他縣也開始種植小麥。

In August of 1929, France and Italy were bragging of a magnificent harvest, while the US had

1929年8月，法國和意大利都在吹噓自己的豐收，而美國已經

millions of bushels of wheat on the shelves that they couldn't sell.

上百萬蒲式耳的小麥在貨架上，他們無法出售。

This oversupply threatened to drive the prices down.

這種供過於求的情況有可能使價格下降。

It caused a little panic in the stock market but didn't cause anything significant.

這引起了股市的一點恐慌，但並沒有造成什麼重大的影響。

A month later, the wheat prices decreased from $1.49 per bushel to $1.31 because of

一個月後，小麥價格從每蒲式耳1.49美元降至1.31美元，原因是

the oversupply.

的供過於求。

It was devastating news, the stock market plummeted.

這是一個毀滅性的消息，股市暴跌。

People got frightened and began to sell their stocks to cash out before the stock market

人們害怕了，開始在股市之前賣出股票套現。

declines further.

進一步下降。

That only made the situation worse crashing the market even more.

這隻會讓情況變得更糟，使市場更加崩潰。

That day, October 29th went down in history as Black Tuesday.

10月29日這一天，被載入史冊的是黑色星期二。

However, that was just the beginning.

然而，這僅僅是個開始。

Since wheat prices were falling, farmers couldn't pay back their debts, that created pressure

由於小麥價格下跌，農民無力償還債務，這就造成了壓力。

on the banks.

岸上。

The panic has already spread to the entire country, and all that people cared about was

恐慌已經蔓延到了整個國家，人們關心的只是

cash, so they rushed to the Banks for their savings.

現金，所以他們趕緊到銀行去存錢。

Unfortunately, banks couldn't pay back their obligations since their borrowers weren't

不幸的是，銀行無法償還他們的債務，因為他們的借款人沒有。

able to pay them back their debts so they had to shut down one after one.

能夠償還他們的債務，所以他們不得不一個接一個地關閉。

In just ten months, 744 banks failed.

僅僅十個月，就有744家銀行倒閉。

It didn't matter whether you had a good or bad business, people lost faith in the market,

不管你的生意是好是壞，人們對市場失去了信心。

and all that mattered was to minimize the losses.

而最重要的是把損失降到最低。

As a result of the that, even good legit business started declaring bankruptcy.

結果，連好的合法企業也開始宣佈破產。

3.8

3.8

The news spread to Europe and caused panic over there since many European countries have

這個消息傳到了歐洲，引起了歐洲的恐慌，因為很多歐洲國家都已

invested heavily in the United States.

在美國大量投資。

The panic caused the same thing over there, and soon the entire world was facing a great

恐慌引起了那邊同樣的事情，很快整個世界就面臨著巨大的

depression.

抑鬱症。

Although this crisis happened almost a hundred years ago, financial crises, in general, are

雖然這次危機發生在近百年前，但一般來說，金融危機是

pretty similar, including the dot-com bubble of the 2008 crash.

相當相似，包括2008年股災的網絡保麗龍。

And the next global recession is going to take place in a very similar way.

而下一次全球經濟衰退將以非常相似的方式發生。

Nobody really knows for sure how and when exactly its going to start but we have multiple

沒有人真正知道它到底是如何和何時開始的，但我們有多個。

bubbles that are big enough to burst at any moment such as student loans, healthcare and

保麗龍大到隨時都會破滅，比如學生貸款、醫療服務和

most important the stock market itself.

最重要的是股市本身。

circles Since the last crisis, S&P500 has increased

圈 自上一次危機以來，S&P500指數已經增加了。

dramatically, this growth is definitely unsustainable and when it crashes, it's going to create

劇，這種增長肯定是不可持續的，當它崩潰的時候，就會造成

a panic that's simply going to make things much worst.

恐慌，只會讓事情變得更糟糕。

Graph 3 doors

圖3門

You can't really avoid the recession because the world economy is so interconnected and

你無法真正避免經濟衰退，因為世界經濟是如此的相互關聯，而且。

dependent on each other that a crisis in the largest economy in the world, will take down

互相依賴，世界上最大的經濟體發生危機，就會被拖垮。

the rest of the world with it.

世界上其他地方的人也會隨之而來。

But the recession isn't going to be forever, it might last a year, maybe two, maybe 5 but

但經濟衰退不會是永遠的，它可能會持續一年，也許兩年，也許5年，但。

eventually it will recover.

最終會恢復。

Just a year after the 2008 crash, in 2009, the sp500 increased by 26.5 percent.

就在2008年大跌後的一年，2009年，sp500指數增長了26.5%。

So don't panic and sell your investments when the media will be shouting all over the place

所以，當媒體鋪天蓋地地喊話的時候，不要慌張地賣出投資品

that if you won't sell now, you are going to lose every damn penny you have invested.

如果你現在不賣， 你將失去每一個該死的一分錢 你已經投資。

Of course, some companies won't survive the crisis and go bankrupt as it happens in every

當然，有些公司不會在危機中存活下來，破產，因為它發生在每一個

crisis, but if you are an investor in an index fund, you should be fine.

危機，但如果你是指數基金的投資者，你應該沒事。

You probably will lose your job because companies will start cutting cost in order to survive,

你可能會失去工作，因為公司為了生存會開始削減成本。

so if you are not vital to their survival, you might be unemployed, so make sure you

所以，如果你對他們的生存不重要，你可能會失業，所以請確保你

have some savings on the side, at least.

有一些積蓄，至少。

But the smartest investors will start investing heavily because prices will be at their lowest

但最聰明的投資者將開始大量投資，因為價格將達到最低點

point.

點。

And once the economy recovers, they will be much wealthier.

而一旦經濟復甦，他們將更加富裕。

That's why they say, the rich get richer.

所以人們才會說，富者越富。

The topic of the global recessions never ends, that's, why the media started talking about

全球經濟衰退的話題永遠不會結束，這也是，為什麼媒體開始談及

it even before the last crisis, ended but this video has to.

它甚至在上一次危機之前，結束了，但這個視頻有。

So thanks for watching and until next time.

所以，謝謝大家的觀看，直到下一次。