Name: 【新冠肺炎】疫情過後的未來城市 (The Future of Cities After Covid-19 | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2020-09-29T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 8 min 22 s

Well, it's a hypothetical one, and this is me Jaden in cartoon form.

好吧，這只是假設的，而這是卡通的我 Jaden 。

I wanted to understand how COVID-19 is reshaping the city around me.

我想知道 COVID-19 是如何改變我身邊的城市。

Because right now my office is sitting mostly empty, shops are closing or struggling to survive, and any plans I had for live events are put on hold.

因為現在我的辦公室幾乎空著，商店關門或掙扎求存，我所有計畫參加的現場表演都被擱置了。

So I did some research to try to understand which changes will outlast the pandemic.

所以我做了一些研究，試圖了解哪些變化會在疫情過後持續進行。

Experts paint a picture of a new daily routine that looks more like this.

專家刻畫了一個全新的日常，像這樣。

I split my working hours between my apartment and office, where I have to reserve a desk from my phone ahead of time.

我將工作時間分配在家裡和辦公室之間，而辦公室必須提前打電話預訂辦公桌。

I pick my groceries up from a local corner shop on my way home, and order my dinner off a digital menu from a nearby restaurant.

我在回家的路上到當地的一家小商店領取我的雜貨，然後在數位菜單上訂購附近一家餐廳的晚餐。

As the cities around us undergo a transformation, the future is being refocused on health, tech and open spaces, but will that be enough for cities to thrive again?

隨著我們周圍城市的轉型，未來將把重心移到健康、技術和開放空間上，但這足夠讓城市再次繁榮嗎？

To understand just how big of a turning point this pandemic is for our cities, we need to look to health crises of the past.

要了解這個疫情對我們的城市帶來多大的轉捩點，我們需要研究過去的健康危機。

More people live in cities than ever before with nearly 70% of the world expected to live in an urban area by 2050.

居住在城市的人口比以往任何時候都要多，到 2050 年前，預計近全球 70％ 的人將生活在城市地區。

But, what makes cities so successful as cultural and financial hubs, also makes them a hotbed for spreading diseases.

但是，成功讓城市成為文化和金融中心的原因，也讓它們成為傳播疾病的溫床。

And the way cities have responded to the spread of diseases throughout history, have had lasting impacts.

城市對歷史上的疾病傳播的應對方式產生了深遠的影響。

Just take this medieval city that was built to quarantine traders and travelers as the bubonic plague spread across 14th century Europe.

像是這座，因鼠疫在 14 世紀的歐洲蔓延開來而為了隔離貿易商和旅行者所打造的中世紀城市。

Or how New York city's overheating problem today has been attributed to the Spanish flu epidemic.

或是，現在紐約市過熱的問題是怎麼跟西班牙流感的疫情有關呢。

When radiators were made hot enough, so people could keep their windows open in the winter to get fresh air.

因為當暖氣製造的夠熱的時候，人們就可以在冬天打開窗戶呼吸新鮮空氣。

Well say you go back another century in the 19th century with London, it helped to improve sanitation conditions, and I think that large shocks are always a cause of things to change.

例如說你回到某個世紀，像是 19 世紀的倫敦好了，衛生條件被大大改善，而我認為，這樣巨大的衝擊總是導致事物發生變化的原因。

That's Nayan Parekh, she's a principal at Genzler architecture firm in Singapore, and she thinks a lot about how design can reshape cities.

這位是 Nayan Parekh，她是新加坡 Genzler 建築事務所的負責人，她對於設計能夠如何重塑城市有很多想法。

COVID-19 began at spread in an industrial city in China.

COVID-19 一開始在中國的一個工業城市傳播。

From there, the pandemic has moved from city to city and across entire countries.

從那裡開始，疫情從一個城市轉移到另一個城市，甚至遍及整個國家。

So Nayan says that after the pandemic we'll have to make some big adjustments, let's start here with how we work.

因此 Nayan 說，在疫情後我們必須進行一些大幅度的調整，就從我們的工作方式開始。

I typically used to work in an office and governments are recommending others like me stagger their shift times if they can.

我通常在辦公室裡工作，各國政府建議其他像我這樣的人盡可能地錯開輪班時間。

We're probably going to see a mindset shift in terms of the way people are thinking about the work day, especially because of the commute density during those peak times.

在人們思考上班日的方式這方面，我們可能會看到思維的轉變，尤其是因為那些高峰時段的通勤密度。

Future me works 11:00 am to 7:00 Pm while others on my team spread their shifts out, starting as early as 6:00 am.

未來的我工作時間是上午 11 點到下午 7 點，而我團隊中的其他人則最早從早上 6 點開始進行輪班。

The idea is that staggered shifts can reduce crowding on public transit and in the office as companies try to resume working there.

這個想法是，當公司想辦法恢復正常上班的時候，交錯的輪班可以減少公共交通和辦公室中的擁擠情況。

Morgan Stanley for example, is aiming to get about half of its employees back in the office by 2021.

例如，Morgan Stanley 的目標是到 2021 年前讓約一半的員工回到辦公室工作。

But like many other companies, their work might not be limited to the office anymore.

但是像許多其他公司一樣，他們的工作可能不再局限於辦公室。

One survey found that 60% of corporate real estate professionals expect remote work to remain an option after the pandemic.

一項調查發現，有 60％ 的企業房地產專員希望在疫情之後仍然可以選擇遠距工作。

So, I might do my first couple hours of work from home or walk to a nearby coffee shop.

所以，我可能會在家中做前面幾個小時的工作，或者走到附近的咖啡店。

Around 1:00 pm before heading into the office, I'll have to check a dedicated workplace app to make sure there's space for my colleagues and I to meet.

下午 1 點前往辦公室之前，我必須查看專用的工作場所 APP 以確保有足夠的空間讓我和我的同事碰面。

I think we're gonna start seeing a huge acceleration, almost using your phone if you like as a digital concierge as you access the space.

我認為我們將手機當作數位管家來預訂空間的行為會快速增加。

We might see more integrated booking systems, so the way you book say your meeting room, you might have to book a desk in the future.

我們可能會看到更多混合的預約系統，就像你預定會議室的方式那樣，將來可能會需要預定辦公桌。

Once I'm in the Office, there are fewer cubicles, more meeting spaces, open windows.

當我進到辦公室後，隔間就會更少，會議空間會更多，打開的窗戶也會更多。

And touchless technology that gets rid of having to touch things like elevator buttons or soap dispensers.

而非接觸式科技讓你不必觸摸電梯按鈕或洗手乳瓶之類的東西。

Of course not everyone who lives in a city works in a big office.

當然，並不是每個住在城市的人都在大型辦公室裡工作。

And not every business can afford to invest in these smart technologies.

也並非每個企業都能負擔得起在這些智慧科技上的投資。

I think that the conversation around kind of smart cities, the conversation around more data to check health and wellness.

我認為圍繞智慧城市的探討、圍繞利用更多數據來檢查健康狀況的探討。

All of these come from a really good place, but good start creating really, really dangerous divides that exacerbates the haves of the have-nots.

所有這些都來自一個好的發想，但是一個好的開端會創造出非常危險的鴻溝，進而加劇貧富差距。

There's a whole range of occupations from healthcare workers to teachers or servers that can't really be done from a cafe or modern office buildings.

從醫護人員到老師或服務業，各種各樣的職業實際上無法在咖啡聽或現代化的辦公大樓中完成。

Many of the jobs that can't be done remotely are in the service industry, where many jobs have also been lost overnight.

許多無法遠距完成的工作都包含在服務業中，其中許多工作也在一夜之間就沒了。

You're seeing that if you don't invest as a personal shopper in kind of what's immediately around you, it's not gonna be immediately around you.

你會發現如果你不當個消費者在你身邊周遭的商店進行消費，它們很快就會消失。

Which means your neighborhood is totally gonna change.

這意味著你周遭的鄰里將徹底改變。

One research firm, estimates that as many as 25,000 US stores could permanently close in 2020.

一家研究公司估計，到 2020 年，美國將有多達 25,000 家商店永久關閉。

The pandemic has made online shopping, not just more convenient, but necessary as people try to reduce going out, and brick and mortar retailers need to make big changes to survive.

疫情不僅讓線上購物變得更加便利，而且隨著人們努力減少外出購物的需要，這種流行是必須的，實體店的零售商需要做出重大改變才能生存。

The future might look like me adding clothes to an online shopping cart to pick up and try on in a physical store.

未來可能是我在網路上把衣服加進購物車中，再到實體店面取貨並試穿。

Or experiential stores that use brick and mortar as more of a branding opportunity, like House of Vans, or Taobao.

或使用實體店作為品牌推廣的體驗式商店，例如 House of Vans 或 Taobao。

We did a Taobao store in China pre COVID, it was completely online store and they started creating physical presence just to build that sense of kind of brand connection.

我們在疫情之前在中國建立了一家淘寶商店，這完全是線上商店，他們建立實體店也只是為了建立跟品牌的那種情感連結。

So I feel more and more stores would be more about brand connection rather than full on stores.

因此，我覺得越來越多的商店將更關注品牌聯繫，而不是專賣店。

And then there's the 15-minute city a concept that's being discussed around the world.

然後是 15 分鐘的城市，這個概念正在全球被廣泛討論。

The idea is that everything I need like groceries, parks and schools, are all within a short walk of my home.

這個發想是，我需要的所有東西，例如雜貨、公園和學校，都在我家幾步之內。

And cities are already transforming their streets to help people avoid public transit by widening sidewalks and adding bike lanes.

城市已經在改造街道，通過加寬人行道和增加自行車道來幫助人們避開公共運輸。

So after I finish up work around seven, I might walk down to a local boutique and browse handmade products.

因此，當我在大約 7 點完成工作後，我可能會走到當地的精品店並逛逛手工產品。

Or stop at a street market to pick up locally grown produce.

或去傳統市場購買當地的農產品。

Many experts agreed that the city center will still be the place to go for shopping, and for a night out.

許多專家同意，市中心仍然是購物和夜生活的地方。

More businesses like dine-in cinemas are merging retail with entertainment, and arts and culture is big business in many cities.

越來越多餐飲跟電影結合的用餐電影院這類的企業正在將零售業與娛樂業結合，在許多城市中，藝術和文化都是大生意。

In New York city, performing arts brought in nearly $2 billion in the 2018, 19 season.

在紐約市，表演藝術在 2018 年第 19 季營收近 20 億美元。

I think entertainment really needs footfall.

And so there's a kind of economic argument for the city still being the cultural center.

因此，有一種經濟概論認為城市仍然是文化的中心。

When you're kind of buying into entertainment, you also want to see other people that are kind of part of that experience with you.

當你沈浸在娛樂之中時，你也會希望看到其他人跟你一起享受。

Those shared experiences will probably utilize more outdoor space, with the help of technology.

這些共享的經驗也許可以在科技的幫助下，利用更多的戶外空間。

Smart data that can help with maybe extending restaurant areas into streets after rush hours, because it's reading traffic, those kinds of things I think can really come to fruition.

高峰時間過後，智慧數據可以幫忙將用餐區擴展到街道上，因為它可以讀取交通流量，而我認為這些事情真的可以實現。

And when I meet up with some friends to go to a big outdoor concert.

還有當我和一些朋友去參加戶外的大型音樂會時。

We might use our phones to guide us through a touch free checking process, and navigate the least crowded routes through the venue.

我們可以使用手機讓我們不用接觸就能通過檢查，並導覽我們在場內走最不擁擠的路線。

For example, today, if you go into any building in Beijing or Shanghai.

例如，現在如果你進到北京或上海的任何建築物內。

You have air quality Monitors because there's an expectation that the building will have healthy air because outside the air is not so healthy.

你會看到空氣質量監測儀，這是因為外面的空氣並不那麼健康，所以人們期望建築物內有健康的空氣。

That expectation has created the need for those monitors.

這種期望產生了對這些監測儀的需求。

And I think in a same way, there'll be certain expectations that people want to see what's going on in terms of hygiene in buildings in the future.

而我同樣的認為，人們會希望在未來看到衛生和建築物的狀況。

So will these changes be enough to still make people Want to live in cities in the future?

那麼，這些變化是否足以使人們仍然希望將來生活在城市中？

During lockdowns more spacious suburbs or the countryside have started to look more attractive for some people.

在封城期間，更寬敞的郊區或鄉村地區對有些人來說更具吸引力。

But cities have proven resilient in the past.

但是城市在過去被證明是具有恢復力的。

I feel like that that's kind of a dream that a lot of urban residents have.

我覺得這是很多城市居民的夢想。

Which when actually realized isn't as fulfilling as the kind of diversity and craziness you get of bumping into people in a dense city.

就是不會再像現在人口密集的城市中的人們那樣的複雜和瘋狂。

Life in cities probably won't return to exactly how it was before the pandemic.

城市生活可能不會完全回到疫情前的狀態。

My journey in this city shows a future that could be a lot more digitally integrated, cleaner, and less crowded than before.

我在這個假設中的城市看到了一個比以前更數位化、更乾淨、更不擁擠的未來。