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  • This is the city of the future.


  • Well, it's a hypothetical one, and this is me Jaden in cartoon form.

    好吧,這只是假設的,而這是卡通的我 Jaden 。

  • I wanted to understand how COVID-19 is reshaping the city around me.

    我想知道 COVID-19 是如何改變我身邊的城市。

  • Because right now my office is sitting mostly empty, shops are closing or struggling to survive, and any plans I had for live events are put on hold.


  • So I did some research to try to understand which changes will outlast the pandemic.


  • Experts paint a picture of a new daily routine that looks more like this.


  • I split my working hours between my apartment and office, where I have to reserve a desk from my phone ahead of time.


  • I pick my groceries up from a local corner shop on my way home, and order my dinner off a digital menu from a nearby restaurant.


  • As the cities around us undergo a transformation, the future is being refocused on health, tech and open spaces, but will that be enough for cities to thrive again?


  • To understand just how big of a turning point this pandemic is for our cities, we need to look to health crises of the past.


  • More people live in cities than ever before with nearly 70% of the world expected to live in an urban area by 2050.

    居住在城市的人口比以往任何時候都要多,到 2050 年前,預計近全球 70% 的人將生活在城市地區。

  • But, what makes cities so successful as cultural and financial hubs, also makes them a hotbed for spreading diseases.


  • And the way cities have responded to the spread of diseases throughout history, have had lasting impacts.


  • Just take this medieval city that was built to quarantine traders and travelers as the bubonic plague spread across 14th century Europe.

    像是這座,因鼠疫在 14 世紀的歐洲蔓延開來而為了隔離貿易商和旅行者所打造的中世紀城市。

  • Or how New York city's overheating problem today has been attributed to the Spanish flu epidemic.


  • When radiators were made hot enough, so people could keep their windows open in the winter to get fresh air.


  • Well say you go back another century in the 19th century with London, it helped to improve sanitation conditions, and I think that large shocks are always a cause of things to change.

    例如說你回到某個世紀,像是 19 世紀的倫敦好了,衛生條件被大大改善,而我認為,這樣巨大的衝擊總是導致事物發生變化的原因。

  • That's Nayan Parekh, she's a principal at Genzler architecture firm in Singapore, and she thinks a lot about how design can reshape cities.

    這位是 Nayan Parekh,她是新加坡 Genzler 建築事務所的負責人,她對於設計能夠如何重塑城市有很多想法。

  • COVID-19 began at spread in an industrial city in China.

    COVID-19 一開始在中國的一個工業城市傳播。

  • From there, the pandemic has moved from city to city and across entire countries.


  • So Nayan says that after the pandemic we'll have to make some big adjustments, let's start here with how we work.

    因此 Nayan 說,在疫情後我們必須進行一些大幅度的調整,就從我們的工作方式開始。

  • I typically used to work in an office and governments are recommending others like me stagger their shift times if they can.


  • We're probably going to see a mindset shift in terms of the way people are thinking about the work day, especially because of the commute density during those peak times.


  • Future me works 11:00 am to 7:00 Pm while others on my team spread their shifts out, starting as early as 6:00 am.

    未來的我工作時間是上午 11 點到下午 7 點,而我團隊中的其他人則最早從早上 6 點開始進行輪班。

  • The idea is that staggered shifts can reduce crowding on public transit and in the office as companies try to resume working there.


  • Morgan Stanley for example, is aiming to get about half of its employees back in the office by 2021.

    例如,Morgan Stanley 的目標是到 2021 年前讓約一半的員工回到辦公室工作。

  • But like many other companies, their work might not be limited to the office anymore.


  • One survey found that 60% of corporate real estate professionals expect remote work to remain an option after the pandemic.

    一項調查發現,有 60% 的企業房地產專員希望在疫情之後仍然可以選擇遠距工作。

  • So, I might do my first couple hours of work from home or walk to a nearby coffee shop.


  • Around 1:00 pm before heading into the office, I'll have to check a dedicated workplace app to make sure there's space for my colleagues and I to meet.

    下午 1 點前往辦公室之前,我必須查看專用的工作場所 APP 以確保有足夠的空間讓我和我的同事碰面。

  • I think we're gonna start seeing a huge acceleration, almost using your phone if you like as a digital concierge as you access the space.


  • We might see more integrated booking systems, so the way you book say your meeting room, you might have to book a desk in the future.


  • Once I'm in the Office, there are fewer cubicles, more meeting spaces, open windows.


  • And touchless technology that gets rid of having to touch things like elevator buttons or soap dispensers.


  • Of course not everyone who lives in a city works in a big office.


  • And not every business can afford to invest in these smart technologies.


  • I think that the conversation around kind of smart cities, the conversation around more data to check health and wellness.


  • All of these come from a really good place, but good start creating really, really dangerous divides that exacerbates the haves of the have-nots.


  • There's a whole range of occupations from healthcare workers to teachers or servers that can't really be done from a cafe or modern office buildings.


  • Many of the jobs that can't be done remotely are in the service industry, where many jobs have also been lost overnight.


  • Take retailers for example.


  • You're seeing that if you don't invest as a personal shopper in kind of what's immediately around you, it's not gonna be immediately around you.


  • Which means your neighborhood is totally gonna change.


  • One research firm, estimates that as many as 25,000 US stores could permanently close in 2020.

    一家研究公司估計,到 2020 年,美國將有多達 25,000 家商店永久關閉。

  • The pandemic has made online shopping, not just more convenient, but necessary as people try to reduce going out, and brick and mortar retailers need to make big changes to survive.


  • The future might look like me adding clothes to an online shopping cart to pick up and try on in a physical store.


  • Or experiential stores that use brick and mortar as more of a branding opportunity, like House of Vans, or Taobao.

    或使用實體店作為品牌推廣的體驗式商店,例如 House of Vans 或 Taobao。

  • We did a Taobao store in China pre COVID, it was completely online store and they started creating physical presence just to build that sense of kind of brand connection.


  • So I feel more and more stores would be more about brand connection rather than full on stores.


  • And then there's the 15-minute city a concept that's being discussed around the world.

    然後是 15 分鐘的城市,這個概念正在全球被廣泛討論。

  • The idea is that everything I need like groceries, parks and schools, are all within a short walk of my home.


  • And cities are already transforming their streets to help people avoid public transit by widening sidewalks and adding bike lanes.


  • So after I finish up work around seven, I might walk down to a local boutique and browse handmade products.

    因此,當我在大約 7 點完成工作後,我可能會走到當地的精品店並逛逛手工產品。

  • Or stop at a street market to pick up locally grown produce.


  • Many experts agreed that the city center will still be the place to go for shopping, and for a night out.


  • More businesses like dine-in cinemas are merging retail with entertainment, and arts and culture is big business in many cities.


  • In New York city, performing arts brought in nearly $2 billion in the 2018, 19 season.

    在紐約市,表演藝術在 2018 年第 19 季營收近 20 億美元。

  • I think entertainment really needs footfall.


  • And so there's a kind of economic argument for the city still being the cultural center.


  • When you're kind of buying into entertainment, you also want to see other people that are kind of part of that experience with you.


  • Those shared experiences will probably utilize more outdoor space, with the help of technology.


  • Like when I go out to eat.


  • Smart data that can help with maybe extending restaurant areas into streets after rush hours, because it's reading traffic, those kinds of things I think can really come to fruition.


  • And when I meet up with some friends to go to a big outdoor concert.


  • We might use our phones to guide us through a touch free checking process, and navigate the least crowded routes through the venue.


  • For example, today, if you go into any building in Beijing or Shanghai.


  • You have air quality Monitors because there's an expectation that the building will have healthy air because outside the air is not so healthy.


  • That expectation has created the need for those monitors.


  • And I think in a same way, there'll be certain expectations that people want to see what's going on in terms of hygiene in buildings in the future.


  • So will these changes be enough to still make people Want to live in cities in the future?


  • During lockdowns more spacious suburbs or the countryside have started to look more attractive for some people.


  • But cities have proven resilient in the past.


  • I feel like that that's kind of a dream that a lot of urban residents have.


  • Which when actually realized isn't as fulfilling as the kind of diversity and craziness you get of bumping into people in a dense city.


  • Life in cities probably won't return to exactly how it was before the pandemic.


  • My journey in this city shows a future that could be a lot more digitally integrated, cleaner, and less crowded than before.


This is the city of the future.


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【新冠肺炎】疫情過後的未來城市 (The Future of Cities After Covid-19 | WSJ)

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    Minjane 發佈於 2020 年 09 月 29 日