For the last four years, Europe was a ground zone for war.

在過去的四年裡，歐洲是一個戰爭的地面區域。

The allies on one side and central powers on the other.

一邊是盟友，一邊是中央大國。

Tenths of millions of people have already lost their lives.

已經有千萬人失去了生命。

However, that's nothing compared to what was coming.

然而，與即將到來的事情相比，這還不算什麼。

The world was about to face one of the deadliest diseases in history.

世界即將面臨歷史上最致命的疾病之一。

No one really knows where exactly it started, some say it began in Kansas, others point

沒有人真正知道它到底是從哪裡開始的，有人說是從堪薩斯州開始的，也有人指出

fingers at China, but during the war, no one really cared because a more severe crisis

矛頭指向中國，但在戰爭期間，沒有人真正關心，因為有更嚴重的危機

was in front of them.

是在他們的面前。

And The flue was just one of the consequences of war as people imagined at that time, however,

而煙道只是當時人們想象中的戰爭後果之一，然而。

when it reached Spain, the Spanish media did not stay silent since Spain was neutral during

當它傳到西班牙時，西班牙媒體並沒有保持沉默，因為西班牙在這期間是中立的。

the war, and that's when the world started paying attention.

戰爭，這時世界才開始關注。

Even then, it wasn't the top priority since allies were about to win the war, and they

即使在那時，它也不是最優先的任務，因為盟友即將贏得戰爭，而他們... ...

wouldn't let some kind of a flue to waste all their efforts that they have been putting

不會讓一些煙道浪費他們一直以來的努力

for the last four years.

在過去的四年裡，。

They were ready to do everything to end the war finally.

他們已經做好了一切準備，最終結束戰爭。

It is estimated that 500 million people were infected, it might not be much by today's

估計有5億人被感染，以今天的眼光來看，可能並不算多

standards because the population has soared in recent decades, but back then, it was one-third

的標準，因為近幾十年來，人口急劇增加，但那時，它是三分之一的

of the world population.

佔世界人口的比例。

And the death toll reached up to 100 million people to some estimates or 6 to 8 percent

而死亡人數達到了1億人，有人估計也就是6%到8%。

of the global population.

佔全球人口的。

That is even higher than what the greatest conflict in human history caused (ww2).

這比人類歷史上最嚴重的衝突（第二次世界大戰）造成的還要高。

Crises are, of course, bad, regardless if it is a virus that's spreading around the

危機當然是不好的，不管它是不是病毒，在各地蔓延的

world or a military conflict or even an economic crash.

世界或軍事衝突，甚至經濟崩潰。

However, despite all of that, every crisis presents opportunities.

然而，儘管如此，每一次危機都會帶來機遇。

It might seem disgusting to cash out on the misery of others.

從別人的痛苦中套現，看似很噁心。

But that's how humanity has been progressing in the entire of its existence.

但這就是人類存在的全部過程中的進步。

And the crises we are experiencing now is no different.

而我們現在所經歷的危機也不例外。

Of course, it's unfair to compare the consequences of each crisis.

當然，比較每一次危機的後果是不公平的。

However, they all follow similar traits and patterns.

然而，它們都遵循著相似的特徵和模式。

Crises by their natures seem bad.

危機的本質似乎是不好的。

I mean, who wants a slowing economy, and high unemployment, especially when you are so dependent

我的意思是，誰想要一個放緩的經濟， 和高失業率，特別是當你是如此依賴。

on that monthly paycheck.

在每月的工資單上。

However, a crisis is nothing but merely a transfer of wealth from one group to another.

然而，危機不過是財富從一個群體轉移到另一個群體而已。

To some, its actually a disaster that would make them poor; to others, its an opportunity

對一些人來說，這其實是一場災難，會讓他們變得貧窮；對另一些人來說，則是一個機會。

to make a few more millions.

來多賺幾百萬。

Looking at the markets now, it seems like everything is down, the SP500 has been down

從現在的市場來看，好像什麼都在跌，SP500指數一直在跌

by a thousand points.

千點。

Still, it had recovered a little bit, at least at the time of writing this script because

不過，至少在寫這個劇本的時候，還是恢復了一點，因為

before you get to watch the video, it must be recorded, edited, sent to an animator,

在你觀看視頻之前，它必須被錄製，編輯，發送給動畫師。

animated, and then finally uploaded on the channel.

動畫，最後再上傳到頻道上。

However, if YouTube is going to decide that you aren't going to be interested in this

然而，如果YouTube要決定，你不會對這個。

video, you might not get even the notification, so give this video thumbs to let YouTube know

視頻，你可能不會得到甚至通知，所以給這個視頻大拇指，讓YouTube知道

that you are interested.

你有興趣。

Anyway, its difficult to predict the future, maybe almost impossible, but what we can assure

不管怎麼說，預測未來是很難的，也許幾乎是不可能的，但我們可以保證的是

ourselves is that humanity went through many many crises, and one way or another, we have

我們自己是人類經歷了很多很多的危機，我們以這樣或那樣的方式，我們已經

figured out a solution and somehow solved the problem.

想出了一個辦法，並以某種方式解決了問題。

And while we are discussing the crises, people on the other side are earning millions if

當我們在討論危機的時候，另一邊的人卻在賺取數百萬美元，如果...

not billions out of it.

不是幾十億出來的。

No matter how long this crisis is going to last, sooner or later, a vaccine will be created,

不管這場危機要持續多久，遲早會有疫苗誕生。

and the world gets back to normal.

世界就會恢復正常。

Borders will be opened again; offices will get back to work, restaurants, cafes, and

邊境將重新開放；辦公室將重新開始工作，餐館、咖啡館和。

malls will welcome everyone as they did before the crises, which means the panic is going

商場會像危機前一樣歡迎大家的到來，這意味著恐慌會

to vanish.

消失。

Which means that the SP500 will rise again or at least get back to where it was.

這意味著SP500將再次上漲，或者至少回到原來的位置。

Smartest investors understand that perfectly, so although the market is still plummeting,

最聰明的投資者完全明白這一點，所以雖然市場還在暴跌。

they are slowly but significantly investing.

他們正在緩慢但顯著地投資。

From December 2007 to the summer of 2008, the S&P500 went down by 50 percent.

從2007年12月到2008年夏天，標普500指數下跌了50%。

That is a significant drop because the real estate market collapsed and dragged down with

這是一個顯著的下降，因為房地產市場崩潰，拖累了與。

it the entire economy.

它的整個經濟。

Millions of people lost their jobs, businesses were closing down one by one, and even some

數百萬人失去了工作，企業一個個倒閉，甚至有些人

of the largest corporation declared bankruptcy.

的最大公司宣佈破產。

It seemed like the world would never recover from such a catastrophe, however, few years

似乎世界永遠不會從這樣的災難中恢復過來，然而，幾年後

down the road, the economy didn't just recover, but the sp500 hit the record high of 3400

下來，經濟不僅復甦，而且sp500創下了3400的歷史新高。

points before the panic of the current virus.

點前，目前病毒的恐慌。

And Whoever understood the nature of such crises emerged victories after it.

而誰瞭解這種危機的本質，誰就會在危機之後出現勝利。

Of course, those who made the wrong bet lost lots of money.

當然，那些下錯賭注的人損失了很多錢。

That's why it's important to understand how the crisis is impacting the world.

所以瞭解危機對世界的影響很重要。

Which industries it is boosting and which ones it is destroying.

它在促進哪些行業的發展，破壞哪些行業的發展。

And even those industries that are suffering, which companies would survive the storm and

而即便是那些苦難重重的行業，哪些企業會在風雨飄搖中生存下來，並且

which ones wouldn't.

哪些人不會。

In March, the US has banned the entry of all foreign nationals who have traveled to China,

今年3月，美國已經禁止所有到中國旅遊的外國公民入境。

Iran, Austria, Belgium, and many other nations 14 days before their arrival.

伊朗、奧地利、比利時等多國在抵達前14天。

US citizens or permanent residents who have visited a high-risk area had to fly into one

到過高危地區的美國公民或永久居民不得不飛到一個

of the 13 international airports with enhanced entry screening capabilities.

在13個國際機場中，加強了入境檢查能力。

On March 18, President of the united states announced that the US would close its northern

3月18日，美國總統宣佈，美國將關閉其北部的

border with Canada, and on March 20, the US and Mexico agreed to restrict non-essential

與加拿大的邊界，3月20日，美國和墨西哥同意限制非必要的。

travel over their shared border for 30 days.

越過共同邊界旅行30天；

That was a big hit for the aviation industry.

這對航空業來說是一個很大的打擊。

In fact, before that, multiple other countries, especially European countries, completely

事實上，在此之前，其他多個國家，尤其是歐洲國家，完全是以

closed their borders like France and Bulgaria.

像法國和保加利亞一樣關閉邊界。

With so many restrictions, revenues began to fall down significantly as everyone was

在如此多的限制下，收入開始大幅下降，因為大家都在。

asking for a refund and began canceling their flights, but that is not the fault of these

要求退款，並開始取消他們的班機，但這並不是這些人的錯。

airliners, many of them are still strong companies with a huge fleet of planes.

航空客機，其中很多還是實力雄厚的公司，擁有龐大的機隊。

That caused a panic in the market which damaged the industry even further, Take an example

這引起了市場的恐慌，進一步損害了行業的發展，例如

of the American Airlines, the stock price literally fell from over 30 dollars to just

的美國航空公司，股價真的從30多美元下降到只有

10, that looks like a company is about to go broke, which might really happen.

10，這看起來像是一家公司要破產了，這可能真的會發生。

But they aren't alone; every other airliner got the hit.

但他們並不孤單，其他每架客機都受到了衝擊。

The stock price might even go further.

股價甚至可能會進一步走高。

But the fact is, we live in such a globalized world, that flying is not going to stop.

但事實上，我們生活在這樣一個全球化的世界裡，飛行是不會停止的。

Our economies are so interconnected that the dice will keep rolling.

我們的經濟是如此的相互關聯，以至於骰子會不斷滾動。

So once the flight restrictions will be unbanned, airlines will restore their schedules, as

所以，一旦限飛令解禁，航空公司就會恢復排班，如。

usual, and the stock price will get back to where it was.

平時，股價也會回到原來的位置。

Which means now is the best time to invest.

也就是說現在是投資的最佳時機。

The challenge is to invest in the right airline.

挑戰在於投資合適的航空公司。

I mean, you have to be confident that it has enough resources to survive the crises.

我的意思是，你必須有信心，它有足夠的資源來度過危機。

That's why things like balance sheets and income states exist, especially if its a publicly-traded

這就是為什麼會有資產負債表和收入狀態這樣的東西存在，尤其是當它是一家公開上市的公司時。

company.

公司。

The problem with crises is that they are causing uncertainty.

危機的問題在於造成不確定性。

And that is bad for businesses; it scares off the investors and pushes them to sell

而這對企業來說是不利的，它嚇跑了投資人，促使他們出售

their investments.

其投資。

Investors are afraid to lose their fortunes, so they are massively selling their shares

投資者怕傾家蕩產，所以大量拋售股票

and cash out before it gets worst, or they simply want to sell the shares that would

並在情況變得更糟之前套現，或者他們只是想賣掉那些會讓他們感到不安的股票。

go down anyway and invest in companies that would rise in the middle of this crises.

無論如何都會下跌，並投資於會在這場危機中崛起的公司。

But regardless, it is going to reduce the demand of certain companies which would lead

但無論如何，它都會減少某些公司的需求，這將導致......。

their stock prices to plummet anyways.

他們的股價無論如何要暴跌。

Let's take another example, how else the virus is impacting society.

我們再舉個例子，病毒對社會還有什麼影響。

Entire nations are declaring quarantine and advising their citizens not to leave their

整個國家都在宣佈隔離，並建議他們的公民不要離開他們的。

homes, including the united states.

家，包括美國。

Which led to fewer people to move around, so companies like Uber and Lyft, whose business

導致出行的人越來越少，所以像Uber和Lyft這樣的公司，他們的業務。

model depends on moving people, have suffered dramatically.

模式靠搬人，已經受到了極大的影響。

In under a month, the stock price went from over 40 to under 15, but it's slightly recovering.

在不到一個月的時間裡，股價從40多元到15元以下，但現在略有回升。

Uber was already doing pretty bad before the virus, so it suffered enormously.

在病毒發生之前，Uber已經做得很糟糕了，所以它受到了巨大的影響。

Even if you take the most valuable company in the world - Apple.

即使你把世界上最有價值的公司--蘋果。

The stock price is falling like a rocket; it's down by a hundred backs to 229 dollars.

股價像火箭一樣下跌；跌了一百多回，跌到229美元。

on one side, their supply-side has stopped.

一方面，他們的供給側已經停止。

Due to the virus, the factories are shut down in China, and on the other, the panic is causing

由於病毒的影響，中國的工廠停工，另一方面，恐慌也造成了。

uncertainty, so people would rather save than spend their last thousand dollars.

的不確定性，所以人們寧可存錢，也不願意花掉最後的一千塊錢。

On top of that, Apple closed all of its stores.

除此之外，蘋果還關閉了所有的商店。

But despite the crises, Apple hasn't lost its brand name, nor its manufacturing sides

但儘管危機四伏，蘋果並沒有失去品牌，也沒有失去製造方

or stores.

或商店。

Once everything is back, the stock price would get back to where it is.

一旦一切恢復，股價就會回到原來的位置。

But the question, when!

但問題是，什麼時候!

Probably when a vaccine is ready, vaccines aren't easy to develop, they take years of

可能是在疫苗準備好的時候，疫苗的研發並不容易，需要幾年的時間。

research and work and hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions just to develop

研究和工作，以及數以億計甚至數十億計的美元，僅僅是為了開發新的產品。

a vaccine against one disease.

一種疾病的疫苗；

However, without a vaccine, its a matter of time before everyone will get infected.

然而，如果沒有疫苗，每個人都會被感染是遲早的事。

Entire nations are on the line to get the vaccine so that they can get back to business.

整個國家都在為打疫苗而努力，這樣他們就可以重新開始工作了。

Dozens of companies and public labs around the world are working on it to prevent the

世界上有幾十家公司和公共實驗室正在研究，以防止。

spread of the virus.

病毒的傳播。

The most notable of them are BioNTech, CureVac, and Moderna.

其中最引人注目的是BioNTech、CureVac和Moderna。

This is the stock price of BioNTech; it literally surged once the panic took over the world,

這就是BioNTech的股價；一旦恐慌情緒席捲全球，它就真的暴漲了。

just take a look at this graph.

看看這張圖就知道了。

So whoever is going to create the vaccine first will profit enormously.

所以，誰要先製造出疫苗，誰就能獲得巨大的利潤。

As we have mentioned before that, a crisis is a crisis for some but an opportunity for

正如我們之前提到的，危機對一些人來說是危機，但對一些人來說卻是機會。

others.

其他。

It's slowing down economies, taking companies out of business, rising unemployment rate,

它使經濟放緩，使公司破產，失業率上升。

but at the same time making others enormously rich.

但同時又讓別人大發橫財。

It doesn't matter what the nature of the crises is.

危機的性質是什麼並不重要。

They are one way or another impacting the economy, whether its a real estate, a dot

他們都在以這樣或那樣的方式影響著經濟，不管是房地產、網絡

com bubble, a bitcoin bubble, or virus.

com保麗龍，比特幣保麗龍，或病毒。