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  • Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world.

    阿根廷曾經是世界上最富有的國家之一。

  • But over the last half century, it has been hit by a major economic crisis roughly once every decade.

    但在過去的半個世紀裡,它大約每十年就會遭遇一次重大的經濟危機。

  • For citizens of South America's second-largest country,

    南美洲第二大國的公民:

  • this boom and bust cycle is a situation that is all too familiar.

    這個繁榮和蕭條的週期是一個太熟悉的情況。

  • So why does Argentina seem to be stuck in this pattern?

    那麼,為什麼阿根廷似乎陷入了這種模式?

  • Argentina's most recent economic turmoil began in August 2019,

    阿根廷最近一次經濟動盪始於2019年8月。

  • after a surprising result in its primary elections set off a shockwave in financial markets.

    在其初選結果出人意料後,在金融市場上掀起了一股衝擊波。

  • That's because the sitting president, Mauricio Macri lost to his rival by a far bigger margin than expected.

    這是因為現任總統毛裡西奧-馬克裡以遠超預期的優勢輸給了對手。

  • The business-friendly incumbent has since been ousted by the opposition ticket of centre-left

    這位對商業友好的現任總統後來被中左翼的反對派票據趕下臺。

  • candidate, Alberto Fernandez, and his running mate, former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

    候選人阿爾貝託-費爾南德斯和他的競選搭檔前總統克里斯蒂娜-費爾南德斯-德基什內爾。

  • A return of the left to power has set alarm bells ringing for international investors,

    左派勢力的迴歸,給國際投資者敲響了警鐘。

  • with many concerned it could herald a new era of government intervention.

    許多人擔心這可能預示著一個政府幹預的新時代。

  • The primaries on August 11 had a dramatic effect on Argentina's stock market, known as the Merval.

    8月11日的初選對阿根廷股市產生了戲劇性的影響,被稱為梅瓦爾。

  • It collapsed by 48% in dollar terms the very next day.

    第二天就以美元計價崩盤了48%。

  • That marked the second-biggest one-day fall anywhere since 1950.

    這標誌著自1950年以來的第二大單日跌幅。

  • The market chaos was so extreme that Argentina was estimated to

    市場混亂到了極點,估計阿根廷會。

  • have lost $3 billion in reserves in just two days.

    僅僅兩天時間就損失了30億美元的儲備金。

  • The government has since restricted foreign currency purchases in an attempt to steady the ship,

    此後,政府為了穩住陣腳,限制了外幣的購買。

  • putting financial restrictions on companies as well as the country's citizens.

    對公司以及國家公民進行金融限制。

  • But unfortunately for Argentina, this kind of economic turbulence is all too familiar.

    但不幸的是,對阿根廷來說,這種經濟動盪太熟悉了。

  • In addition to wine, steak and tango dancing, Argentina is known for enduring economic meltdown.

    除了葡萄酒、牛排和探戈舞,阿根廷還以持久的經濟崩潰而聞名。

  • To understand why, we first need to look back at its long history.

    要了解原因,我們首先要回顧一下它的悠久歷史。

  • A century ago, Argentina was one of the 10 richest countries in the world.

    一個世紀前,阿根廷是世界上最富有的10個國家之一。

  • The resource-rich nation boasted vast amounts of highly fertile land and was able to capitalise on this

    這個資源豐富的國家擁有大量的高肥沃土地,並能夠利用這些資源。

  • to become one of the most important exporters of grain and meat.

    成為最重要的糧食和肉類出口國之一。

  • By 1910, its trade amounted to 7% of the global total, making it the so-calledbreadbasket of the world."

    到1910年,其貿易額佔全球總量的7%,成為所謂的 "世界糧倉"。

  • Then the Great Depression arrived in 1929 and global trade took a huge hit.

    然後1929年大蕭條到來,全球貿易受到巨大沖擊。

  • Latin American trade declined by nearly 40%,

    拉美貿易下降了近40%。

  • and Argentina's meat exports to Europe fell by more than two-thirds.

    而阿根廷對歐洲的肉類出口下降了三分之二以上。

  • While its competitor, the United States tackled the problem with programs like the New Deal,

    而它的競爭對手,美國則通過新政等方案來解決這個問題。

  • Argentina was paralyzed and began to move toward nationalism and protectionist policies.

    阿根廷陷入癱瘓,開始走向民族主義和保護主義政策。

  • Tariffs jumped in the 1930s, with the average import tariff increasing from 16.7% in 1930 to 28.7% in 1933.

    20世紀30年代關稅猛增,平均進口關稅從1930年的16.7%增加到1933年的28.7%。

  • The government also began manipulating exchange rates in an attempt to protect the local industry.

    政府也開始操縱匯率,試圖保護在地產業。

  • The government deepened these policies during World War II and with General Juan Peron's rise to power.

    政府在二戰期間以及隨著胡安-貝隆將軍的上臺,深化了這些政策。

  • After a long history of policies that favored the rich, Peron and his second wife Eva became

    在長期實行有利於富人的政策後,貝隆和他的第二任妻子伊娃成了。

  • beloved figures among the country's urban workers, thanks to a wide range of new social welfare benefits.

    由於一系列新的社會福利,在全國城市工人中備受愛戴的人物。

  • And his legacy lives on, with many of Argentina's politicians throughout the years calling themselves

    而他的遺產還在繼續,這些年來,阿根廷的許多政治家都自稱為

  • Peronists, including its newly elected leaders.

    庇隆主義者,包括其新當選的領導人;

  • While the U.S. and Europe lowered the barriers to trade,

    雖然美歐降低了貿易壁壘。

  • Argentina sought industrialization within its borders.

    阿根廷在其境內尋求工業化。

  • Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to kickstart its economy,

    不幸的是,這還不足以啟動其經濟。

  • with industrial productivity increasing at an average of 2.6% between 1946 and 1963

    1946年至1963年,工業生產力平均增長2.6%;

  • and then actually declining at an annual rate of half a percent until 1974.

    而後實際以每年百分之五十的速度下降,直到1974年。

  • The government was increasing spending and discouraging exports,

    政府正在增加開支,不鼓勵出口。

  • meaning it had to borrow more and more money to keep everything running.

    意味著它不得不借越來越多的錢來維持一切運轉。

  • Gradually, what was once one of the world's most stable economies became one of the most volatile.

    漸漸地,曾經是世界上最穩定的經濟體之一,變成了最不穩定的經濟體之一。

  • To date, Argentina has defaulted on its debt eight times,

    到目前為止,阿根廷已經8次違約。

  • and on two separate occasions already this century.

    並在本世紀已經兩次。

  • In fact, over the last 70 years, Argentina has spent 33% of the time in recession.

    事實上,在過去的70年裡,阿根廷有33%的時間是在衰退中度過的。

  • By comparison, its biggest neighbour Brazil has seen recession 12% of the time over the same period.

    相比之下,其最大的鄰國巴西同期衰退的時間為12%。

  • The perennial tendency for Latin America's third-largest economy to slip into crisis-mode

    拉丁美洲第三大經濟體長期以來陷入危機模式的趨勢。

  • has made hyperinflation, currency devaluations and bailouts from the International Monetary Fund

    使得惡性通貨膨脹、貨幣貶值和國際貨幣基金組織的救助成為可能。

  • very much part of the routine.

    非常多的常規部分。

  • This long series of economic crises has made Argentina the only nation in modern history

    這一連串漫長的經濟危機,使阿根廷成為現代史上唯一的國家

  • to regress to developing country status.

    倒退到開發中國家地位。

  • But, it was perhaps the historic economic collapse of 2001 that saw Argentina really hit rock bottom.

    但是,也許是2001年曆史性的經濟崩潰,阿根廷才真正跌入谷底。

  • At that time, the country earned the dubious distinction of recording what was then

    當時,該國贏得了一個可疑的榮譽,即記錄了當時的情況。

  • the biggest debt default in history.

    歷史上最大的債務違約。

  • People were pulling out more money from the banks than they had,

    人們從銀行取出的錢比他們的錢還多。

  • and widespread civil unrest led to deadly street riots.

    和廣泛的內亂導致了致命的街頭騷亂。

  • The economic collapse famously led to the former head of state Fernando de la Rua

    著名的經濟崩潰導致前國家元首費爾南多-德拉魯阿

  • escaping the presidential palace roof by helicopter, just moments after presenting his formal resignation.

    乘坐直升機逃離總統府屋頂,就在他正式提出辭職後不久。

  • Later that same year, Argentina proceeded to fall even deeper into crisis.

    同年晚些時候,阿根廷更加深陷危機。

  • The country had four presidents in two weeks and defaulted on nearly $100 billion in debt.

    該國兩週內有四位總統,違約債務近1000億美元。

  • Nearly a generation later and the warning signs on Argentina's economy are flashing red once again.

    將近一代人之後,阿根廷經濟上的警告信號再次閃爍著紅光。

  • And, in the spring of 2018, the IMF readily- stepped in to offer a record-breaking bailout.

    而在2018年春天,國際貨幣基金組織欣然出手,提供了創紀錄的救助。

  • Argentina's chequered past with the IMF stretches back more than six decades.

    阿根廷與國際貨幣基金組織的不愉快的過去可以追溯到60多年前。

  • Since it first sought the fund's help back in 1958, Buenos Aires has signed 22 agreements

    自1958年首次尋求該基金的幫助以來,布宜諾斯艾利斯已簽署了22項協議。

  • with the global crisis lender, most of which have ended with bad blood on both sides.

    與全球危機貸方的合作,大多以雙方不睦而告終。

  • Nonetheless, in the midst of another economic storm and just a year before the 2019 election,

    儘管如此,在另一場經濟風暴中,距離2019年大選僅有一年時間。

  • President Macri controversially signed Argentina up to the biggest loan package in the history of the fund.

    阿根廷總統馬克裡爭議性地簽署了阿根廷歷史上最大的貸款方案。

  • The whole point of the bailout was to get investors to feel confident about putting money into the country

    救市的目的是為了讓投資者有信心把錢投入到國家中去

  • and hopefully attract enough new funding from the private sector to continue spending on imports.

    並希望能從私營部門吸引足夠的新資金繼續用於進口。

  • That program, and the austerity measures that came with it, was rejected at the primaries.

    這一方案以及隨之而來的緊縮措施,在初選時被否決。

  • And the subsequent chaos in financial markets has forced the country to delay payments on

    而隨之而來的金融市場的混亂也迫使該國延後支付對。

  • around $100 billion of local and foreign debt and restrict foreign currency purchases.

    1000億美元左右的本外債,並限制購匯。

  • By the end of August, the super-sensitive peso, seen by some as a guide for Argentina's economy,

    截至8月底,超敏感的比索,被一些人視為阿根廷經濟的指南。

  • had tumbled more than 51% against the dollar since the start of the year.

    自年初以來對美元的匯率已暴跌超過51%。

  • Some analysts argue it is the twin mistakes of Argentina's government and the IMF

    有分析人士認為,這是阿根廷政府和國際貨幣基金組織的雙重錯誤。

  • that are to blame for the country's current problems, others claim it has fallen back into crisis mode

    歸咎於國家目前的問題,其他人則聲稱它已經重新陷入危機模式。

  • for the simple reason that it hasn't changed enough since the last debacle.

    原因很簡單,自從上次失敗後,它還沒有足夠的改變。

  • The latest downturn has stoked fears that Argentina could soon register its ninth credit default,

    最新的經濟衰退引發了阿根廷可能很快出現第九次信用違約的擔憂。

  • making it a pariah among global investors once more.

    使其再次成為全球投資者的棄兒。

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world.

阿根廷曾經是世界上最富有的國家之一。

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阿根廷是否再次走向經濟危機?| CNBC解讀

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