Name: 阿根廷是否再次走向經濟危機？| CNBC解讀
Uploaded: 2020-08-12T19:05:16.000Z
Duration: 6 min 44 s

Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world.

阿根廷曾經是世界上最富有的國家之一。

情態副詞

But over the last half century, it has been hit by a major economic crisis roughly once every decade.

但在過去的半個世紀裡，它大約每十年就會遭遇一次重大的經濟危機。

For citizens of South America's second-largest country,

this boom and bust cycle is a situation that is all too familiar.

這個繁榮和蕭條的週期是一個太熟悉的情況。

So why does Argentina seem to be stuck in this pattern?

那麼，為什麼阿根廷似乎陷入了這種模式？

Argentina's most recent economic turmoil began in August 2019,

阿根廷最近一次經濟動盪始於2019年8月。

after a surprising result in its primary elections set off a shockwave in financial markets.

在其初選結果出人意料後，在金融市場上掀起了一股衝擊波。

That's because the sitting president, Mauricio Macri lost to his rival by a far bigger margin than expected.

這是因為現任總統毛裡西奧-馬克裡以遠超預期的優勢輸給了對手。

The business-friendly incumbent has since been ousted by the opposition ticket of centre-left

這位對商業友好的現任總統後來被中左翼的反對派票據趕下臺。

candidate, Alberto Fernandez, and his running mate, former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

候選人阿爾貝託-費爾南德斯和他的競選搭檔前總統克里斯蒂娜-費爾南德斯-德基什內爾。

A return of the left to power has set alarm bells ringing for international investors,

左派勢力的迴歸，給國際投資者敲響了警鐘。

with many concerned it could herald a new era of government intervention.

許多人擔心這可能預示著一個政府幹預的新時代。

The primaries on August 11 had a dramatic effect on Argentina's stock market, known as the Merval.

8月11日的初選對阿根廷股市產生了戲劇性的影響，被稱為梅瓦爾。

It collapsed by 48% in dollar terms the very next day.

第二天就以美元計價崩盤了48%。

That marked the second-biggest one-day fall anywhere since 1950.

這標誌著自1950年以來的第二大單日跌幅。

The market chaos was so extreme that Argentina was estimated to

市場混亂到了極點，估計阿根廷會。

have lost $3 billion in reserves in just two days.

僅僅兩天時間就損失了30億美元的儲備金。

The government has since restricted foreign currency purchases in an attempt to steady the ship,

此後，政府為了穩住陣腳，限制了外幣的購買。

putting financial restrictions on companies as well as the country's citizens.

對公司以及國家公民進行金融限制。

But unfortunately for Argentina, this kind of economic turbulence is all too familiar.

但不幸的是，對阿根廷來說，這種經濟動盪太熟悉了。

In addition to wine, steak and tango dancing, Argentina is known for enduring economic meltdown.

除了葡萄酒、牛排和探戈舞，阿根廷還以持久的經濟崩潰而聞名。

To understand why, we first need to look back at its long history.

要了解原因，我們首先要回顧一下它的悠久歷史。

A century ago, Argentina was one of the 10 richest countries in the world.

一個世紀前，阿根廷是世界上最富有的10個國家之一。

The resource-rich nation boasted vast amounts of highly fertile land and was able to capitalise on this

這個資源豐富的國家擁有大量的高肥沃土地，並能夠利用這些資源。

to become one of the most important exporters of grain and meat.

成為最重要的糧食和肉類出口國之一。

By 1910, its trade amounted to 7% of the global total, making it the so-called “breadbasket of the world."

到1910年，其貿易額佔全球總量的7%，成為所謂的 "世界糧倉"。

Then the Great Depression arrived in 1929 and global trade took a huge hit.

然後1929年大蕭條到來，全球貿易受到巨大沖擊。

Latin American trade declined by nearly 40%,

and Argentina's meat exports to Europe fell by more than two-thirds.

而阿根廷對歐洲的肉類出口下降了三分之二以上。

While its competitor, the United States tackled the problem with programs like the New Deal,

而它的競爭對手，美國則通過新政等方案來解決這個問題。

Argentina was paralyzed and began to move toward nationalism and protectionist policies.

阿根廷陷入癱瘓，開始走向民族主義和保護主義政策。

Tariffs jumped in the 1930s, with the average import tariff increasing from 16.7% in 1930 to 28.7% in 1933.

20世紀30年代關稅猛增，平均進口關稅從1930年的16.7%增加到1933年的28.7%。

The government also began manipulating exchange rates in an attempt to protect the local industry.

政府也開始操縱匯率，試圖保護在地產業。

The government deepened these policies during World War II and with General Juan Peron's rise to power.

政府在二戰期間以及隨著胡安-貝隆將軍的上臺，深化了這些政策。

After a long history of policies that favored the rich, Peron and his second wife Eva became

在長期實行有利於富人的政策後，貝隆和他的第二任妻子伊娃成了。

beloved figures among the country's urban workers, thanks to a wide range of new social welfare benefits.

由於一系列新的社會福利，在全國城市工人中備受愛戴的人物。

And his legacy lives on, with many of Argentina's politicians throughout the years calling themselves

而他的遺產還在繼續，這些年來，阿根廷的許多政治家都自稱為

Peronists, including its newly elected leaders.

庇隆主義者，包括其新當選的領導人；

While the U.S. and Europe lowered the barriers to trade,

Argentina sought industrialization within its borders.

Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to kickstart its economy,

不幸的是，這還不足以啟動其經濟。

with industrial productivity increasing at an average of 2.6% between 1946 and 1963

1946年至1963年，工業生產力平均增長2.6%；

and then actually declining at an annual rate of half a percent until 1974.

而後實際以每年百分之五十的速度下降，直到1974年。

The government was increasing spending and discouraging exports,

政府正在增加開支，不鼓勵出口。

meaning it had to borrow more and more money to keep everything running.

意味著它不得不借越來越多的錢來維持一切運轉。

Gradually, what was once one of the world's most stable economies became one of the most volatile.

漸漸地，曾經是世界上最穩定的經濟體之一，變成了最不穩定的經濟體之一。

To date, Argentina has defaulted on its debt eight times,

到目前為止，阿根廷已經8次違約。

and on two separate occasions already this century.

In fact, over the last 70 years, Argentina has spent 33% of the time in recession.

事實上，在過去的70年裡，阿根廷有33%的時間是在衰退中度過的。

By comparison, its biggest neighbour Brazil has seen recession 12% of the time over the same period.

相比之下，其最大的鄰國巴西同期衰退的時間為12%。

The perennial tendency for Latin America's third-largest economy to slip into crisis-mode

拉丁美洲第三大經濟體長期以來陷入危機模式的趨勢。

has made hyperinflation, currency devaluations and bailouts from the International Monetary Fund

使得惡性通貨膨脹、貨幣貶值和國際貨幣基金組織的救助成為可能。

This long series of economic crises has made Argentina the only nation in modern history

這一連串漫長的經濟危機，使阿根廷成為現代史上唯一的國家

But, it was perhaps the historic economic collapse of 2001 that saw Argentina really hit rock bottom.

但是，也許是2001年曆史性的經濟崩潰，阿根廷才真正跌入谷底。

At that time, the country earned the dubious distinction of recording what was then

當時，該國贏得了一個可疑的榮譽，即記錄了當時的情況。

People were pulling out more money from the banks than they had,

人們從銀行取出的錢比他們的錢還多。

and widespread civil unrest led to deadly street riots.

和廣泛的內亂導致了致命的街頭騷亂。

The economic collapse famously led to the former head of state Fernando de la Rua

著名的經濟崩潰導致前國家元首費爾南多-德拉魯阿

escaping the presidential palace roof by helicopter, just moments after presenting his formal resignation.

乘坐直升機逃離總統府屋頂，就在他正式提出辭職後不久。

Later that same year, Argentina proceeded to fall even deeper into crisis.

同年晚些時候，阿根廷更加深陷危機。

The country had four presidents in two weeks and defaulted on nearly $100 billion in debt.

該國兩週內有四位總統，違約債務近1000億美元。

Nearly a generation later and the warning signs on Argentina's economy are flashing red once again.

將近一代人之後，阿根廷經濟上的警告信號再次閃爍著紅光。

And, in the spring of 2018, the IMF readily- stepped in to offer a record-breaking bailout.

而在2018年春天，國際貨幣基金組織欣然出手，提供了創紀錄的救助。

Argentina's chequered past with the IMF stretches back more than six decades.

阿根廷與國際貨幣基金組織的不愉快的過去可以追溯到60多年前。

Since it first sought the fund's help back in 1958, Buenos Aires has signed 22 agreements

自1958年首次尋求該基金的幫助以來，布宜諾斯艾利斯已簽署了22項協議。

with the global crisis lender, most of which have ended with bad blood on both sides.

與全球危機貸方的合作，大多以雙方不睦而告終。

Nonetheless, in the midst of another economic storm and just a year before the 2019 election,

儘管如此，在另一場經濟風暴中，距離2019年大選僅有一年時間。

President Macri controversially signed Argentina up to the biggest loan package in the history of the fund.

阿根廷總統馬克裡爭議性地簽署了阿根廷歷史上最大的貸款方案。

The whole point of the bailout was to get investors to feel confident about putting money into the country

救市的目的是為了讓投資者有信心把錢投入到國家中去

and hopefully attract enough new funding from the private sector to continue spending on imports.

並希望能從私營部門吸引足夠的新資金繼續用於進口。

That program, and the austerity measures that came with it, was rejected at the primaries.

這一方案以及隨之而來的緊縮措施，在初選時被否決。

And the subsequent chaos in financial markets has forced the country to delay payments on

而隨之而來的金融市場的混亂也迫使該國延後支付對。

around $100 billion of local and foreign debt and restrict foreign currency purchases.

1000億美元左右的本外債，並限制購匯。

By the end of August, the super-sensitive peso, seen by some as a guide for Argentina's economy,

截至8月底，超敏感的比索，被一些人視為阿根廷經濟的指南。

had tumbled more than 51% against the dollar since the start of the year.

自年初以來對美元的匯率已暴跌超過51%。

Some analysts argue it is the twin mistakes of Argentina's government and the IMF

有分析人士認為，這是阿根廷政府和國際貨幣基金組織的雙重錯誤。

that are to blame for the country's current problems, others claim it has fallen back into crisis mode

歸咎於國家目前的問題，其他人則聲稱它已經重新陷入危機模式。

for the simple reason that it hasn't changed enough since the last debacle.

原因很簡單，自從上次失敗後，它還沒有足夠的改變。

The latest downturn has stoked fears that Argentina could soon register its ninth credit default,

最新的經濟衰退引發了阿根廷可能很快出現第九次信用違約的擔憂。

making it a pariah among global investors once more.

使其再次成為全球投資者的棄兒。