a good investment because if you invest your thousand dollars that you hardly saved, you

一個很好的投資，因為如果你把你幾乎沒有保存的一千美元投資，你

probably will lose it or make 3 or 4 percent a year which is not worth it.

可能會失去它或每年賺3或4％，這是不值得的。

So the question that recently crossed my mind was - what's the best way to invest if you

所以，最近我想到的問題是--如果你的投資方式是什麼？

don't have a lot of money.

沒有太多的錢。

How do you spot great opportunities at the right time such as bitcoin? if you have invested

如何在合適的時機發現比特幣等大好機會，如果你投資了

that thousand dollars in bitcoin just a year before it was crashed, you would have made

就在比特幣崩盤的前一年，那一千多美元的比特幣，你就已經賺到了。

at least a thousand percent on your investment.

至少有千分之一的投資額。

But bitcoin is just the most recent example, people have been making millions if not billions

但比特幣只是最近的例子，人們已經賺了幾百萬甚至幾十億了

by taking advantage of such opportunities all the time, Such as the 2008 crash.

通過一直利用這樣的機會，比如2008年的股災。

So, How do you find a million or a billion dollar opportunity?

那麼，如何找到百萬、十億的機會呢？

That's the question we will answer in this video.

這就是我們將在這個視頻中回答的問題。

But first, we have to understand how the economy works.

但首先，我們要了解經濟是如何運作的。

Look, our economy is very predictable.

你看，我們的經濟是非常可預測的。

It grows slowly, then skyrockets and once it reaches its peak, it suddenly crashes.

它慢慢成長，然後暴漲，一旦達到頂峰，就會突然崩潰。

And then It starts recovering and growing again and the same cycle repeats over and

然後它又開始恢復和生長，同樣的循環不斷重複著。

over but in general, the trend is upward.

過，但總的來說，趨勢是向上的。

And your job is to invest here at the bottom and cash out at the top.

而你的工作就是在底部這裡投資，在頂部套現。

But how do you know where exactly are we now.

但你怎麼知道我們現在到底在哪裡。

Let's understand that by taking an example of the 2008 crash.

我們以2008年的股災為例來理解。

In the 2000s, when the stock market crashed, investors didn't know what to do with all

在2000年，當股市崩盤時，投資者不知道該如何處理所有。

of the money they had.

的錢，他們有。

The stock market was too risky and the government bonds had extremely low returns.

股市風險太大，國債收益極低。

So, financial institutions came out with a brilliant idea.

於是，金融機構出了一個絕妙的主意。

A lot of people wanted to buy a house and banks would give them a mortgage if they had

很多人想買房，銀行會給他們辦理按揭貸款，如果他們有。

a good credit score and a sustainable income.

良好的信用評分和可持續的收入。

At some point, banks had a lot of mortgages and decided to sell them to investment banks.

在某些時候，銀行有很多抵押貸款，決定把它們賣給投資銀行。

Investment banks realized that they were good safe investments, and with much higher returns

投資銀行意識到，它們是很好的安全投資，而且回報率要高得多。

than government bonds.

比政府債券。

So they bought thousands of them, grouped them together and sold them as securities

於是他們買了幾千只，把它們組合在一起，作為證券出售

to other investors.

給其他投資者。

It's a pretty good scheme, think about it.

這是一個相當不錯的方案，你想想看。

People get the opportunity to buy a house, lenders make money by selling those mortgage

人們有了買房的機會，放貸人通過出售這些抵押貸款來賺錢

and investment banks also make a profit by turning them into securities and selling them

和投資銀行也通過將其轉化為證券並出售來獲利。

to investors, and investors get a decent rate of return.

給投資者，而投資者也能獲得不錯的回報率。

Everyone is happy!

每個人都很高興!

But here is when things went wrong.

但事情就是在這裡出了問題。

Since these investments were good, more and more investors wanted to buy them.

由於這些投資項目很好，越來越多的投資者想要購買。

So lenders had to provide more mortgages but everyone who could afford a house already

所以貸款人不得不提供更多的抵押貸款，但每個人都能買得起房子了。

had one.

有一個。

Therefore, Banks (Lender) started lending money to people with bad credit score and

是以，銀行(貸款人)開始借錢給信用不良的人，並將其作為貸款人。

without a sustainable income.

沒有持續的收入。

The logic behind it was simple.

背後的邏輯很簡單。

If they won't be able to pay back the mortgage, they would simply take back the house and

如果他們無力償還房貸，就會直接把房子收回來，然後。

sell it since home prices were raising.

賣掉它，因為房價在提高。

And secondly, as soon as they create the mortgage, they will sell it to investment banks and

其次，只要他們創造了抵押貸款，他們就會把它賣給投資銀行和。

it will be their problem.

這將是他們的問題。

Investment banks didn't give a damn because they knew that they will sell them anyways

投資銀行根本不屑一顧，因為他們知道無論如何都會賣掉它們。

to investors, so they borrowed huge loans to buy them and sold them again to investors.

給投資者，於是他們借來鉅額貸款購買，再賣給投資者。

Everyone was making money!

大家都在賺錢!

However, at some point, those borrowers who didn't even have a job weren't able to

然而，在某些時候，那些連工作都沒有的借款人卻無法做到

pay back their mortgage so they defaulted.

還貸，所以他們違約了。

The bank took their house and put it on sale, as they have planned.

銀行按照他們的計劃，把他們的房子拿去賣了。

Not a big deal.

沒什麼大不了的。

But more and more borrowers started defaulting.

但越來越多的借債的人開始違約。

And more and more houses were on sale.

而且出售的房子越來越多。

However, everyone who could afford a house already had one.

然而，每個買得起房子的人都已經有了房子。

So this oversupply caused house prices to decline.

所以這種供過於求的情況下，導致房價下跌。

Which means, lenders and investment banks were left with thousands of defaulted mortgages

這就意味著，貸款人和投資銀行要面對數以千計的違約抵押貸款。

and houses they couldn't sell.

和他們賣不出去的房子。

Investors stopped buying them because they already had enough of them.

投資者不再購買它們，因為它們已經夠用了。

That caused a panic in the market, everyone was trying to cash out before its too late.

這引起了市場的恐慌，大家都想趁早套現。

But investment banks weren't able to pay back their investors.

但投資銀行並不能償還投資者。

Because they have spent all of their money on these mortgages that are worthless now.

因為他們把錢都花在了這些現在不值錢的抵押貸款上。

So they started declaring bankruptcy one after another and that only created a bigger panic.

於是他們開始陸續宣佈破產，這隻會造成更大的恐慌。

Banks who provided these loans in the first place also couldn't pay back their depositors

當初提供這些貸款的銀行也無法償還儲戶的貸款

so they had to shut down one after another.

所以他們也不得接連地不關閉。

The entire stock market was down (draw a graph), the market lost 1.2 trillion dollars in value.

整個股市下跌（畫圖），市場損失1.2萬億元。

Bank of America's stock price, for example, fell from 26 dollars to under 6 dollars (draw

比如美國銀行的股價，從26美元跌到了6美元以下（抽成）。

a graph).

a圖）。)

everyone was afraid to invest, that's when investors like Warren Buffett stepped in and

大家都不敢投資，這時巴菲特等投資者就會介入，並

made huge investments in Goldman Sacks, Bank of America, dow chemicals and many more.

對高盛、美國銀行、道氏化學等進行了鉅額投資。

Because he understood that in a couple of years, the economy will recover and will start

因為他明白，再過幾年，經濟就會復甦，就會開始。

growing again, and these companies will regain back their value (economic cycle graph).

再次增長，這些公司將重新獲得價值（經濟週期圖）。

And that's exactly what happened.

而這正是發生了什麼。

The government bailed out many companies.

政府救助了很多公司。

Printed trillions of dollars and saved the economy from a long-lasting recession and

印製了數萬億美元的鈔票，使經濟免於長期衰退和

we had another period of economic prosperity.

我們有另一個經濟繁榮的時期。

And Warren Buffett made 10 billion dollars from this crisis according to wall street

根據華爾街的報道，巴菲特從這次危機中賺了100億美元。

journal.

報紙。

We will have another crisis sooner or later because we have created many bubbles that

我們遲早會有另一場危機，因為我們製造了許多泡沬化，而這些泡沬化

are waiting to burst such as the student debt.

正在等待破裂，如學生債。

The only question is when, it might happen this year, maybe next year, maybe in a few

唯一的問題是什麼時候，它可能發生在今年，也許明年，也許在幾個

years.

年。

And if you are ready, it might be your chance to make an incredible fortune.

而如果你準備好了，這可能是你賺取驚人財富的機會。

But without basic knowledge of the stock market, you will not stand a chance, so here is a

但如果沒有基本的股市知識，你將沒有機會，所以這裡有一個

course from Business Casual.

課程從商務休閒。

He has done a pretty good job covering everything you need to know about the stock market.

他已經做了相當不錯的工作，涵蓋了你需要知道的關於股市的一切。

Its fully animated and fun to watch.

其全動畫化，趣味性強。

You have to watch it if you are serious about investing.

如果你是認真投資的話，你必須要看。

In fact, if you use the link in the description, you will get it for free.

事實上，如果你使用描述中的鏈接，你將免費獲得它。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

謝謝你的觀看，我們下期再見。