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  • Following the bursting of the housing bubble both the Bush and Obama administrations attempted

  • to jump-start the economy with stimulus spending. Stimulus spending is often accompanied by

  • the phrasethe government must create jobs.” The theory is that every dollar the government

  • spends is income for someone who, when he spends that income, provides income for another

  • person. This is the Keynesian multiplier effect.

  • Critics argue that the multiplier effect overlooks the fact that the money the government spends

  • doesn't fall from the sky. Every dollar the government spends it must obtain, either through

  • taxing, or borrowing, or printing money. And where the government does these things, jobs

  • are destroyed. In the end, the government doesn't create jobs at all, but, rather, moves

  • jobs as it spends in one place and taxes somewhere else. People who claim that government spending

  • creates jobs are only seeing half of the picture. Can this be true?

  • Let's look at the history of stimulus spending in the United States over the past half century.

  • Well measure growth in federal spending along the horizontal axis and economic growth

  • on the vertical axis. The blue dot is our economy at a point in time. The further to

  • the right we go, the more stimulus spending were experiencing. The further to the left

  • we go, the less growth in federal spending is occurring. Along the vertical axis we measure

  • economic growth. The further up the graph we go, the more economic growth were experiencing.

  • The further down the graph we go, the less economic growth were experiencing. Well

  • place one dot for each quarter since the 1950s. If stimulus spending worked, we would expect

  • to see a pattern of dots that moved up and to the right. When the government spends more

  • money, we should see more economic growth. When the government spends less money, the

  • economy should slow down. Now let's look at the actual data for the U.S. economy.

  • From 1955 to the present, government spending has risen in some quarters, fallen in others,

  • and remained unchanged in others still. But what is clear is that there is no apparent

  • positive relationship between government spending and economic growth. For example, in 1968

  • federal spending rose an average of more than 11 percent per quarter. One year later, economic

  • growth averaged less than 1 percent per quarter. But in 1993, federal spending contracted an

  • average of more than 2 percent a quarter. Yet one year later the economy grew at the

  • same 1 percent per quarter. Of course there might have been something else going on in

  • 1967 and 1993 other than federal spending that influenced economic growth, and that

  • is why we look at all the quarters from 1955 to the present. Unless there was something

  • atypical going on in every single quarter, we must conclude that there is no evidence

  • here that increased federal spending results in economic growth.

  • What does this mean?

  • It means that the only thing stimulus spending does is to make the budget deficit worse.

  • But it isn’t necessary to look at all this data; we need only look back over the past

  • three years. Between the Federal- Reserve and the federal government we have injected

  • the equivalent of two Canadian economies into the U.S. economy, and yet our unemployment

  • remains stubbornly fixed at 9 percent. One thing that has changed is that our government

  • is now $4.6 trillion further in debt than it was before the stimulus efforts.

Following the bursting of the housing bubble both the Bush and Obama administrations attempted


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B1 中級

刺激經濟支出有用嗎? (Does Stimulus Spending Work?)

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    Ching Hung Lin 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日