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  • Voiceover: Regardless of your opinion

  • of how much regulation or how much intervention

  • the government should have in markets,

  • in capitalism generally,

  • I think it's interesting to take a look

  • at the various cycles that have happened

  • in the United States,

  • both from an economic point of view

  • and also from a regulatory point of view.

  • If we start in the late 1800s,

  • in the late 1800s so we've had the Civil War,

  • we've had Reconstruction.

  • You actually have a crisis,

  • kind of a depression after the Civil War,

  • but then after that depression,

  • at the end of the 1800s,

  • the United States comes roaring back.

  • It becomes a major industrialized nation.

  • And part of that industrializing process,

  • you have some gentlemen who become

  • very, very, very wealthy.

  • You have Cornelius Vanderbilt.

  • His wealth was in the rail and in the steamboats.

  • John D. Rockefeller known by some people

  • as the wealthiest man in history.

  • That may or may not be the case,

  • but he was definitely the wealthiest man

  • in American history.

  • If you inflation-adjust so some accounts will say

  • he had 1.5 billion dollars.

  • You might say, "Wait, I know of people

  • "who have more than 1.5 billion dollars."

  • If you inflation-adjust the amount of money

  • that John D. Rockefeller had at the turn

  • of the century it comes out to 400 billion

  • to 600 billion dollars.

  • This is a lot more than anyone that we know

  • of in present times.

  • You have Andrew Carnegie in the steel business.

  • His net worth, if you look at it in a present value basis,

  • is approximately 300 billion.

  • You have people like JP Morgan.

  • Although is net worth also huge, huge amount,

  • but where his power was really ....

  • Since he was in control of the financial world at that time,

  • his financial power was tremendous.

  • Maybe more than the type of power that these gentleman could wield.

  • The amount of power that him and his associates

  • controlled through their various holdings,

  • some have said amounted to the amount of wealth

  • in all of the United States West of the Mississippi.

  • These are hugely powerful, hugely wealthy men.

  • The type of power and wealth that we

  • actually have not seen since.

  • You can decide what you think of these people.

  • On some level all of these people,

  • I'm sure they were good entrepreneurs.

  • I'm sure they were hard working,

  • I'm sure they innovated

  • in their own way but they were also known

  • for back then that this might be why it

  • would have given fuel to someone like Marx

  • who would look at people like this and say,

  • "Look, these people have so much power.

  • "Labor has no power compared to them.

  • "Some of the employees in some of these

  • "companies, it's hard to really say that they are

  • "independent human beings.

  • "They're almost like slave labor.

  • "They live on the campus. They have no rights.

  • "People are dying while they're working

  • "for some of these organizations."

  • So you can decide where you will,

  • but the reality is that these people

  • were hugely, hugely, hugely wealthy, hugely powerful.

  • Now you fast forward to the early 1900s

  • and you start having a little bit of a backlash

  • against these ... I guess the system in which

  • these type of people can thrive.

  • You have Teddy Roosevelt comes to power in 1901.

  • One of the things ... He's famous for many things,

  • but one of the things he's famous for is being

  • a trust buster.

  • When he talks about trust,

  • a trust is really just a large corporation.

  • The idea is, is that, "Look Standard Oil,

  • "you have essentially taken control of the

  • "refining and the oil industry in America.

  • "You have become a monopolist.

  • "You need to be broken up."

  • This is anti-competitive.

  • Remember, capitalism for the capitalist sake, for capitalism sake

  • is maybe not that good of an idea.

  • What we want is competition.

  • What we want is innovation.

  • What we want is incentives.

  • If you control everything and no one can compete

  • that's not helping anyone.

  • So Teddy Roosevelt, it didn't happen during his administration

  • but he kind of started the trust busting process,

  • and in the next administration,

  • in Taft's administration,

  • you actually have Standard Oil being broken up.

  • Just to get an idea of how big Standard Oil was,

  • if you take Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Conoco,

  • and pretty much every other major US oil company,

  • put them together.

  • I'm not saying it's the equivalent of Standard Oil.

  • That's actually what standard oil was.

  • When Standard Oil was broken up during Taft's administration,

  • it was actually broken up into all of these corporations.

  • You can look into it more.

  • You could imagine how much power someone like that would hold.

  • So the pendulum swung in one extreme at the end of the 1800s.

  • Roosevelt comes in, once again Republican President,

  • Very strong President.

  • But he said, "Look, enough is enough.

  • "This is too much.

  • "This is not in the best interest of the American people.

  • "We need competition."

  • Then you fast forward even more.

  • In the 20s you have this huge boom.

  • Things are looking well.

  • Whenever there is a boom, people look the other way.

  • People think, "Oh we don't need much regulation.

  • "We don't need much government intervention."

  • But then booms, many times, almost always lead to busts.

  • Then you have the Great Crash of 29,

  • leads into the Great Depression.

  • People are unhappy with Herbert Hoover.

  • FDR comes into power in kind of the heart

  • of the Great Depression.

  • He stays President until World War 2.

  • In his attempts to take the country out of the Great Depression,

  • he has this New Deal set of programs.

  • Some of the New Deal programs were essentially

  • to make use of all the labor and industrial

  • capacity that was going unused during the Great Depression.

  • It was kind of this Keynesian Philosophy

  • that if no one else is going to supply

  • the demand to use all of these factories

  • and use all of these people, the government will.

  • There were these huge public works projects

  • but there was also regulation getting involved

  • here to kind of stop some of the things that

  • were perceived caused the boom and the bust.

  • You have the Glass Steagall Act,

  • which is most famous for separating investment

  • banking from depository institutions.

  • Essentially saying the same people who are taking

  • your deposits can't on the other side take

  • your deposits and gamble with them in the stock market.

  • This is when Social Security passed,

  • once again providing a safety net,

  • going slightly in the Socialist direction.

  • Saying, "Hey look, we can't have, if we're a civilized, rich country,

  • "we can't have people going hungry in the streets.

  • "We can't have older people who have done

  • "their work, who have contributed to society,

  • "now all of the sudden that we're in the middle

  • "of a depression, we can't have them starving to death.

  • "Or not having them at least having a basic

  • "level of existence."

  • You have Social Security.

  • Safety net is coming into play.

  • You have Fannie Mae being created,

  • which the Fannie Mae narrative plays

  • all the way into 2008 and continues to be a part

  • of the story with the American housing situation.

  • What this is, is an organization that essentially

  • can buy mortgages. Buying mortgages is

  • it's essentially lending money to people for mortgages.

  • The reason why the government did this,

  • is the government ... This is a separate organization

  • that implicitly had the backing of the government,

  • which says that Fannie Mae can borrow from people

  • but if for whatever reason one day Fannie Mae

  • can't pay back its loans, the government will back it up.

  • It will make good on those loans.

  • What that allowed Fannie Mae to do is to borrow money

  • at very low interest rates,

  • essentially close to the rate that the US government

  • could borrow at and then loan that money

  • at very low interest rates to people who want to buy houses.

  • So essentially subsidized home ownership.

  • I should say not home ownership.

  • Subsidized home borrowing.

  • I want to make that clear because if everyone

  • now has more borrowing power to buy a home,

  • then most likely that will just increase

  • the price of houses.

  • So it's really not subsidizing home borrowing

  • but that's a whole other topic.

  • Once again the government is getting involved.

  • Here they're trying to do a little bit of engineering.

  • Once again this goes against letting the market do its thing.

  • This is a distortion in the market.

  • It's a distortion because once again

  • it's anti-competitive.

  • If someone else wanted to do what Fannie Mae

  • did but didn't have the backing of the government

  • it wouldn't be able to compete because it wouldn't

  • be able to borrow money as cheaply.

  • You keep fast forwarding.

  • You get to Lyndon Johnson's Administration.

  • Obviously there were other people in between.

  • You get to Lyndon Johnson's administration

  • and you have the Great Society.

  • The Great Society, amongst other things,

  • food stamps, war on poverty, Medicare, Medicaid,

  • so once again saying, "Hey society needs

  • "to have some base level of support for people."

  • I'm not going to take sides one way or the other

  • but the pendulum was definitely swinging

  • in the direction of more social safety nets

  • and more attempts to make kind of a level

  • playing field and you can debate whether

  • they were successful or not.

  • The other thing,

  • and this is completely unrelated to what this conversation

  • is about but whenever someone learns about

  • Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt

  • in the same video it begs the question,

  • "Were they related in some way?"

  • It does turn out they were fifth cousins.

  • Even more interesting, Eleanor Roosevelt,

  • who was Franklin Roosevelt's wife,

  • was Teddy Roosevelt's niece.

  • There actually was a pretty close relationship

  • between all of these Roosevelt's.

  • Another interesting thing,

  • I just found this on the Internet,

  • Teddy Roosevelt was also the first President

  • to ride in the open in an automobile.

  • It's funny to see the secret service agents

  • over here riding bicycles to keep up.

  • Anyway, complete tangent.

  • So you had, just to review where we are.

  • End of 1800s you have what some people

  • have called, if they want to be insulting of these people,

  • the robber barrons.

  • They have concentrated a huge amount of wealth.

  • Then the pendulum starts swinging back

  • with Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt and then Lyndon Johnson.

  • Then you fast forward even through the 70s

  • you still have kind of a fairly heavy

  • regulation of many industries in the US.

  • Jimmy Carter, who was considered quite liberal,

  • you have to give him, if you are anti-regulation,

  • give him some credit.

  • He actually deregulated the airline industry

  • and frankly that's why it's hard ... that's why airline

  • tickets are actually fairly inexpensive

  • if you look at them on an inflation-adjusted basis.

  • Then the pendulum swings back again into less

  • government, less regulation under Ronald Reagan.

  • This is Ronald Reagan here.

  • He is kind of most known amongst other things,

  • I mean, some people think that he brought

  • communism to the brink but he also was big

  • on less government.

  • From the story of the 1900s until then

  • was kind of more and more regulation,

  • more safety nets, more government,

  • and then Ronald Reagan comes

  • with less government and lower taxes,

  • although he spent a ton on the military,

  • and the military is government.

  • What's interesting is in this period during the 80s

  • you start having an economic boom.

  • You could debate whether it's due to Ronald Reagan,

  • or maybe it was due to things that

  • were completely out of his control.

  • Maybe it was due to automation and information

  • technology starts becoming big and he

  • has nothing to do with that but regardless to say,

  • you do start having an economic boom in the 80s.

  • Then the 90s it starts to accelerate under Bill Clinton.

  • The interesting thing that you see is when things

  • are good the temptation for government to regulate

  • goes down and under Bill Clinton,

  • who is a democratic, considered liberal,

  • you have Welfare Reform,

  • which does undo a lot of ...

  • I guess it takes a more conservative take on welfare.

  • It makes it harder to have welfare for longer periods of time.

  • You also have the repeal of Glass Steagall,

  • so the repeal of Glass Steagall.

  • So even though Bill Clinton was considered liberal,

  • maybe he would blame these things on having

  • a republican congress, who forced him into it,

  • or whatever else.

  • The reality is it did happen under his administration.

  • The government stepping out of welfare a little bit

  • and allowing to or kind of a deregulation of banks.

  • Allowing for investment banking

  • and commercial banking to start getting comingled again.

  • Then you keep forwarding through the Bush

  • Administration once George W. Bush,

  • I could put his dad in here in between.

  • Actually he was forced to raise taxes

  • so I can't really include him in the

  • conversation of less government,

  • and he would claim he was forced to do that

  • because of democrats.

  • All the way through all of these presidencies,

  • while things were kind of on this upward march,

  • you had this constant stream of deregulation

  • and all the way until you get to 2008.

  • You have a major, major financial crisis.

  • Who knows, now sitting in 2011,

  • where that pendulum will swing back,

  • but there is a sense that maybe all

  • of this went too far and probably the worst

  • signs of this is this whole idea that emerged

  • during the 2008 crisis of Too Big To Fail.

  • Which is kind of the worst of Capitalism and Socialism.

  • It's kind of like corporate welfare.

  • It's like, not only are you not giving benefit to those

  • who want to innovate or do well,

  • you have these huge entities that control

  • so much wealth, that control so much of the economy,

  • and they get there by taking huge amounts

  • of risks and as soon as they do incompetent

  • stupid things that put all of us at risk,

  • the government comes in to bail them out

  • because essentially they are holding the economy hostage.

  • If the government does not bail these characters

  • out they might take the entire economy with them.

  • My sense is that they tried to scare

  • the government a little bit more to have the

  • government believe that so they do get bailed.

  • Regardless to say, it does leave kind of a moment in time

  • where society, or at least American society,

  • really the world,

  • has to question how much regulation is appropriate?

  • How much control over the financial system

  • should private institutions be allowed to have?

  • Fannie Mae is an interesting one.

  • Because once again it's a government sponsored

  • institution that was pseudo-private.

  • It was kind of the worst of both worlds.

  • Once again it's still being propped up

  • by the government and it's a major distortion.

  • It's a major distortion market but to some degree the

  • government is afraid of letting it completely falter

  • now because it would probably tank

  • the economy to some degree.

  • Anyway, hopefully you found that interesting.

  • I just wanted to give you some perspective

  • on the swinging of the pendulum between

  • government regulation and more kind of capitalism

  • without regulation that we've seen in the United States

  • over roughly the last 100 or so years.

Voiceover: Regardless of your opinion

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20世紀美國的資本主義與管制 (20th Century Capitalism and Regulation in the United States)

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    Bravo001 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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