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  • election polls.

  • They're always wrong.

  • Or you might as well get monkeys to chuck darts at a board.

  • That's not quite fair.

  • They don't completely useless.

  • Well, you do have to be careful how you interpret them.

  • So here's some things to bear in mind about how polls work.

  • First, you can't ask everyone.

  • More than 45 million people can vote at the next election.

  • You really can't talk to the rule.

  • So pollsters usually asked between 1000 and 2000 people a simple question.

  • If there were general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

  • But if you only asked pensioners or people in Wales or the crowd of the Labour Party conference, this wouldn't be representative of the UK as a whole, and you get a biased results.

  • So polling companies try to build a carefully balanced sampled to get a snapshot the national mood from just a couple of 1000 people.

  • But even with a representative sample, there are other factors to consider.

  • For example, older people tend to be more likely to vote for younger people, and pollsters have to factor this into their calculations.

  • Turnout among different groups of voters sort of the hardest things pollsters to predict accurately.

  • Second, polls aren't perfect in the recent past.

  • They've got it wrong because their samples weren't quite right.

  • In 2015 pollster counted too many Labour supporters and not enough of the people who voted to keep David Cameron in Downing Street.

  • But two years later, the polls were wrong the other way and failed to pick up the scale of the Corbyn surge.

  • They're often big differences between pollsters, and they can't all be right.

  • So a bad sample commune a poll misses the mark.

  • Bathing with a good sample.

  • Polls cannot pinpoint a party's exact vote share.

  • That's because of something called the margin of error when pollsters say their party's on 40%.

  • What they really mean is that confident the party is somewhere between 36% and 44% so neither party is up a bit in one poll.

  • This may not be a genuine shift in the public mood.

  • Third, despite all this pulls often are quite accurate.

  • For example, they did a pretty good job in recent European Parliament elections in the UK, where polls have got it wrong that generally haven't been off by too much.

  • We've had lots of close elections recently.

  • A winner racist tight, a small polling mixed mean getting the winner wrong.

  • Fourth vote share doesn't equal.

  • M P's constituency based voting system in the UK makes it especially difficult to translate polls on National Party support into parliamentary seats.

  • The Conservatives gained votes in 2017 but lost sees.

  • That's because it's not just about whether apart it is, well overall about whether they do better than their opponents in key constituencies.

  • Ignore anyone who has a simple formula to predict who will win the most seats.

  • So how should you read the polls?

  • We'll keep in mind.

  • This is really important.

  • The polls tell you about people's views a specific point in time.

  • They're not a prediction of the final result.

  • So ABC a poll a few weeks away from an election.

  • The final result may end up very different, not because the poll was wrong, but because people change their minds.

  • Also, be very wary of any single pole it's best to look at overall trends from several different polling companies are BBC poll tracker does this?

election polls.

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2019年大選:如何理解選舉民意調查的意義 - BBC News (General election 2019: How to make sense of election polls - BBC News)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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