Any change to the leadership in Pyongyang threatens a struggle for control of one of the world's most dangerous stockpiles of nuclear and chemical weapons.

平壤領導層的任何變化都會威脅到為控制世界上最危險的核武器和化學武器儲存之一而進行的鬥爭。

Despite state media showing the North Korean Supreme Leader reemerge at the opening of a fertiliser factory, questions over his health have lingered, and intelligence agencies from Seoul to Washington are left facing one key question - who is next in line to replace Kim Jong Un?

儘管國家媒體顯示北韓最高領導人在一家化肥廠開工時重新現身，但有關他的健康狀況的疑問一直揮之不去，從首爾到華盛頓的情報機構都面臨一個關鍵問題--誰是下一個接替金正恩的人選？

When Kim Jong Un was handed power after the death of his father, Kim Jong, Il in 2011, experts braced themselves for regime collapse.

2011年，金正恩在其父金正日去世後交出權力時，專家們為政權的崩潰做好了準備。

The young leader, who had spent part of his youth in Europe, only emerged as the anointed successor barely two years earlier, and few thought he had the authority to hold the Kim dynasty together.

這位年輕的領導人在歐洲度過了他的部分青春時光，卻在幾乎兩年前才以被指定的接班人的身份出現，很少有人認為他有權力將金氏王朝團結起來。

However, the now 36-year-old dictator defied expectations by removing threats to his power, including the brutal killings of his uncle and half brother.

然而，這位現年36歲的獨裁者不負眾望，消除了對他權力的威脅，包括殘忍殺害他的叔叔和同父異母的兄弟。

With few close family members left and his own children believed to be far too young, the next in line could be Kim Yo Jong, the Supreme Leader's younger sister.

由於親近的家人所剩無幾，自己的孩子也被認為太過年輕，下一個人選可能是最高領導人的妹妹金裕貞。

Kim Yo Jong gained international prominence in 2018 when she was dispatched to attend the Winter Olympics in South Korea and became the first member of the Kim regime to visit the country since the Korean War.

2018年，金裕貞被派往韓國參加冬奧會，成為朝鮮戰爭以來首位訪韓的金氏政權成員，在國際上備受矚目。

She is believed to have important roles in political departments in Pyongyang and is seen to be a top advisor to her brother, including during his flurries of brinkmanship and diplomacy with Donald Trump.

據信，她在平壤的政治部門擔任重要角色，並被視為她哥哥的最高顧問，包括在他與唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）的刷牙和外交活動中。

Based on the regime's priorities and the regime's propaganda and what Kim Jong Un himself has done in the past few years, is that his sister is very close to him.

根據政權的重點和政權的宣傳，以及金正恩本人過去幾年的所作所為，就是他的妹妹和他關係非常密切。

Kim Yo Jong, who is in her early 30s, is always by her brother's side, is obviously a trusted confidant.

30歲出頭的金裕貞一直陪伴在哥哥身邊，顯然是值得信賴的知己。

She would be near the top, if not at the top of that list, of my list of who might succeed.

在我的可能成功的人名單中，如果不是排在最前面，她也會接近榜首。

I think we have to understand that this is all at Kim's whim.

我想我們要明白，這一切都是金氏的主意。

He has been purging, demoting, shuffling leaders left and right, hundreds of officials since he came to power.

他自上臺以來，對左右的上司、數百名官員進行了清理、降職、洗牌。

And that's a way of keeping everybody on their toes.

這也是讓大家保持警惕的一種方式。

And so if you're in that kind of environment, then you're going to want to make sure that you're in the leader's good graces.

所以如果你在這樣的環境中，那麼你要確保自己在上司的好感度。

US officials see Kim Yo Jong as one of the key regime insiders, with one analyst telling me she has been groomed for power and the propaganda game since she was a teenager.

美國官員將金裕貞視為政權的重要內線之一，一位分析人士告訴我，她從十幾歲開始就被培養成了權力和宣傳遊戲的對象。

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has travelled to Pyongyang and met Chairman Kim himself several times, including when he was CIA chief, made a point of saying that he had also met Chairman Kim's sister on past trips, as well as some of the other leaders, as well.

國務卿邁克-蓬佩奧曾前往平壤，並多次會見金主席本人，包括在他擔任中央情報局局長時，他特意表示，他在過去的訪問中還會見了金主席的妹妹，以及其他一些領導人。

One person I spoke to who is directly in touch with North Korean and Chinese officials told me that, even if Kim's sister were to take over as figurehead, the party would try to project leadership in a style akin to that of China before Xi Jinping took the reins, portraying something more akin to collective leadership.

我所接觸到的一位與北韓和中國官員有直接接觸的人告訴我，即使金正日的妹妹接任形象代言人，該黨也會試圖以一種類似於習近平掌權前中國的風格來塑造領導力，描繪出更類似於集體領導的東西。

Analysts I spoke to said the Trump administration has also taken its eye off the ball, as the prospect for talks with North Korea that might actually yield fruit have dwindled, and the team they assembled to try and deliver denuclearisation has scattered in different directions.

與我交談過的分析人士表示，特朗普政府也把目光移開了，因為與北韓進行可能真正取得成果的會談的前景已經越來越小，他們組建的試圖實現無核化的團隊也分散到了不同的方向。

Managing a transition with such high stakes at a time the US is fighting coronavirus, if that were to be the case, would be extremely demanding.

在美國對抗冠狀病毒的時候，管理過渡期的風險如此之高，如果是這樣的話，要求極高。

The speculation over Kim's health and whereabouts has also highlighted just how little insight we have into the North Korean leadership.

對金正日健康和行蹤的猜測也凸顯出我們對北韓領導層的瞭解是多麼的少。

There are multiple Ints, which is human intelligence, signals intelligence, Geoint, and that's the satellite imagery, what we see from above, as well as open source, Osint, and also Rumint, which is rumour intelligence, right?

有多個Ints，就是人類情報，信號情報，Geoint，就是衛星影像，我們從上面看到的，還有開源，Osint，還有Rumint，就是謠言情報，對吧？

But something like Kim's health or his whereabouts or his status, that's tricky.

但像金的健康或他的行蹤或他的地位，這就很棘手了。

The search for Kim Jong Un appears to have come to an end for now, but the episode has served as a stark reminder of the potential for a sudden dramatic change in the leadership in Pyongyang and the dangers of having an unstable nuclear-armed pariah state that shares borders with China and South Korea and has a history of threatening the United States.

搜捕金正恩的行動似乎暫時告一段落，但這一插曲嚴酷地提醒人們，平壤領導層有可能突然發生劇變，一個與中國和韓國接壤、有威脅美國曆史的不穩定的核武賤民國家的危險性。