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  • Welcome to Charts That Count.

  • The kingdom of stocks is divided into two parts, value

  • and growth.

  • With value stocks you pay a reasonable price

  • for a slice of a company's profits.

  • Value stocks, in a word, are cheap.

  • In this category today, for example,

  • we find almost all banks and many industrials.

  • With growth, by contrast, you pay up

  • for a slice of rapidly rising revenues or profits.

  • In this category we typically find biotechnology, software,

  • and hot retail stocks.

  • Now, as this chart from STAR Capital shows,

  • you've never had to pay more for growth relative to value

  • than you do today.

  • Indeed, the differential in valuation

  • was last this great or almost this great back in 1999,

  • just before the dotcom bubble burst.

  • And as it was two decades ago, technology is leading the way.

  • Look at the price-to-earnings multiples of Microsoft, Google,

  • Facebook, and Amazon, compared to that of the S&P 500.

  • There really is no comparison.

  • But in other ways the story is very different today.

  • In 1999, the tech stocks that led the market

  • were largely speculative.

  • Now, the leading companies have very high, almost monopoly-like

  • profits.

  • This chart from The Leuthold Group tells that story.

  • Returns at the top quartile of American companies

  • continue to rise steadily, while returns at all other companies

  • are slowly slipping away.

  • The stock market has staged a remarkable rally

  • in recent weeks and has had a fantastic decade.

  • But ask yourself these two questions.

  • One, what does this extremely unequal distribution of profits

  • say about the overall health of the American economy?

  • And two, how long will it be before tax authorities

  • or antitrust regulators step in to spoil the party at the most

  • dominant companies?

Welcome to Charts That Count.

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重要的圖表:增長能否永遠戰勝價值?| 傅立葉 (Charts that Count: can growth beat value forever? | FT)

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    洪子雯 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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