Name: 【TED-Ed】要等到何時疫情才會結束？ (When is a pandemic over?)
Uploaded: 2020-06-15T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 5 min 53 s

Consider this unfortunately familiar scenario.

Several months ago a highly infectious, sometimes deadly respiratory virus infected humans for the first time.

幾個月前，一個感染性極強、有可能致命的呼吸道病毒，第一次感染了人類。

It then proliferated faster than public health measures could contain it.

病毒迅速激增，速度超過了公共健康措施能處理的地步。

Now the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a pandemic, meaning that it's spreading worldwide.

現在世界衛生組織 (WHO) 宣布了這是全球大流行，代表病毒已在全球擴散。

The death toll is starting to rise and everyone is asking the same question: when will the pandemic end?

死亡人數開始攀升，大家都在問：疫情何時結束？

The WHO will likely declare the pandemic over once the infection is mostly contained and rates of transmission drop significantly throughout the world.

WHO 很可能會在感染幾乎被控制住、全球傳染率大幅下降時，宣布全球大流行已結束。

But exactly when that happens depends on what global governments choose to do next.

但大流行真正結束之時，其實操控在各國政府接下來的舉動。

They have three main options: race through it, delay and vaccinate, or coordinate and crush.

他們有三個選項：悶頭猛衝、拖延並製造疫苗、協調擊毀病毒。

One is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.

有一個選項被廣泛認為是最好的，但可能不是你所想的那個。

In the first, governments and communities do nothing to halt the spread and instead allow people to be exposed as quickly as possible.

一開始，政府和社群不做任何事來停止病毒蔓延，反而讓人們盡快暴露在病毒下。

Without time to study the virus, doctors know little about how to save their patients, and hospitals reach peak capacity almost immediately.

根本沒時間研究病毒，醫生不知道怎麼救病患，醫院很快會人滿為患。

Somewhere in the range of millions to hundreds of millions of people die, either from the virus or the collapse of health care systems.

因為病毒或健保系統的崩潰，大概會有幾百萬到幾億人死亡。

Soon the majority of people have been infected and either perished or survived by building up their immune responses.

很快地，大多數的人都被感染了，有些人死去，有些人則因為建立起自己的免疫反應而存活。

Around this point herd immunity kicks in, where the virus can no longer find new hosts.

大概在這時，群體免疫開始了，病毒再也找不到新宿主。

So the pandemic fizzles out a short time after it began.

疫情在開始後，很快地煙消雲散。

But there's another way to create herd immunity without such a high cost of life.

還有另一個辦法可以製造群體免疫，但不用賠上這麼多性命。

Let's reset the clock to the moment the WHO declared the pandemic.

我們把時間轉回 WHO 宣佈全球大流行那刻吧！

This time, governments and communities around the world slow the spread of the virus to give research facilities time to produce a vaccine.

這次，政府和社群減緩病毒擴散速度，給研究設施時間製造疫苗。

They buy this crucial time through tactics that may include widespread testing to identify carriers, quarantining the infected and people they've interacted with, and physical distancing.

他們用一些技巧爭取關鍵時間，例如透過廣泛測試來辨認帶原者、隔離感染者和感染者接觸過的人、維持社交距離。

Even with these measures in place, the virus slowly spreads, causing up to hundreds of thousands of deaths.

即使措施都到位了，病毒還是會慢慢擴散，造成數百到數千人死亡。

Some cities get the outbreak under control and go back to business as usual, only to have a resurgence and return to physical distancing when a new case passes through.

有些城市可以把疫情爆發抑制下來，讓人們恢復上班，但很常疫情會復發，每當有新一例出現，大家又重回保持社交距離。

Within the next several years, one or possibly several vaccines become widely, and hopefully freely, available thanks to a worldwide effort.

在接下來的幾年內，可能有了一種或數種疫苗，由於全球的努力，希望疫苗會是免費的、廣泛的。

Once 40 to 90 percent of the population has received it—the precise amount varying based on the virus—herd immunity kicks in, and the pandemic fizzles out.

一旦百分之四十到九十的人口打了疫苗 (確切數量要根據病毒調整)，群體免疫開始了，疫情就會煙消雲散。

Let's rewind the clock one more time, to consider the final strategy: coordinate and crush.

讓我們再次轉回時間，想想最後一個策略：協調擊毀病毒。

The idea here is to simultaneously starve the virus, everywhere, through a combination of quarantine, social distancing, and restricting travel.

這個策略的概念是各地同步遏止病毒，透過一系列的隔離、社交距離、限制出境。

The critical factor is to synchronize responses.

In a typical pandemic, when one country is peaking, another may be getting its first cases.

在一般的大流行中，當一個國家達到疫情高峰，另一個國家可能正出現第一例。

Instead of every leader responding to what's happening in their jurisdiction, here everyone must treat the world as the giant interconnected system it is.

各國領導人不是只顧著自己轄區，而是每個人都把世界當成巨大的相互聯結系統。

If coordinated properly, this could end a pandemic in just a few months, with low loss of life.

如果有好好合作，可以在幾個月內就結束大流行，也不用損失很多人命。

But unless the virus is completely eradicated—which is highly unlikely—there will be risks of it escalating to pandemic levels once again.

但除非病毒被完全根除 (幾乎不可能)，還是有可能會恢復到全球大流行的等級。

And factors like animals carrying and transmitting the virus might undermine our best efforts altogether.

像是動物帶原、傳播病毒的因素，可能會削弱我們的努力。

So which strategy is best for this deadly, infectious respiratory virus?

所以哪個策略對這個致命、有感染性的呼吸道病毒來說最好？

Racing through it is a quick fix, but would be a global catastrophe, and may not work at all if people can be reinfected.

悶頭猛衝效果很快，但會是全球大災難，而且如果人們可以被二度感染，這招根本就起不了作用。

Crushing the virus through coordination alone is also enticing for its speed, but only reliable with true and nearly impossible global cooperation.

透過合作來擊毀病毒效果也很快，但只有全球真正合作才有可能發生，而這幾乎不可能。

That's why vaccination, assisted by as much global coordination as possible, is generally considered to be the winner; it's the slow, steady, and proven option in the race.

這就是透過儘可能的全球合作、發明疫苗，被普遍視為最好的辦法，這方法緩慢而穩定，是被認可的選項。

Even if the pandemic officially ends before a vaccine is ready, the virus may reappear seasonally, so vaccines will continue to protect people.

即使全球大流行在疫苗穩定前就宣布結束了，病毒可能還是會季節性地重新出現，所以疫苗才能持續保護人們。

And although it may take years to create, disruptions to most people's lives won't necessarily last the full duration.

即使耗時多年才能製造出疫苗，病毒對人們的影響不一定會持續太久。

Breakthroughs in treatment and prevention of symptoms can make viruses much less dangerous, and therefore require less extreme containment measures.

在治療上的進步、對疾病的防範，都會讓病毒變得沒那麼危險，因此不那麼需要極端的遏止措施了。

Its legacy will be long lasting, but not all bad; the breakthroughs, social services, and systems we develop can be used to the betterment of everyone.

它的影響會是永久的，但不見得都不好：人類進步、社會服務、我們發展的系統，對每個人來說都是更好的。

And if we take inspiration from the successes and lessons from the failures, we can keep the next potential pandemic so contained that our children's children won't even know its name.

如果我們從成功中汲取激勵、失敗裡習得教訓，我們就可以遏止下一個潛在疫情，讓我們孩子的孩子，根本不知道那個病毒的名字。

Humanity has conquered deadly plagues before.

人類以前就克服過致命的瘟疫。

The small pox virus killed three hundred million people in the 20th century alone, but has since been eradicated.

在二十世紀，光是天花病毒，就奪走了三億人的性命，但之後就被根除了。

Find out how with this video, or learn exactly how virus testing works with this video.

透過這個影片知道原因，或是從這個影片學到病毒測試是怎麼一回事。