about to play a decisive role in yet another American election?

Welcome to Week 6 of Washington, DC's coronavirus lockdown,

where the contours of November's presidential election

are beginning to take shape.

One issue rising up the agenda is health care,

and specifically, what should happen

to the tens of millions of people

who are likely to lose their jobs as a result

of this crisis, and with it, their employer-linked health

insurance plans.

Well, one option on the table is simply

to extend the government-backed Medicare and Medicaid schemes

to anyone who wants them for the duration

of the coronavirus crisis, at least.

This would be what the Left would

call "Medicare for All," at least

for the foreseeable future.

This, however, would be anathema to many

on the Right, who are keen to make sure the private insurance

market does not get undermined.

Therefore, another option being discussed

is for the government to step in to subsidise

a scheme known as COBRA.

This allows people who have just lost their jobs,

and with it their employer-linked insurance

plans, to continue accessing private health insurance plans,

but at a cost.

The problem with this scheme has been

that it is so costly, in fact, that people have simply

decided to go without insurance rather than accessing it.

The government could step in to cover those costs,

but of course, doing so would also be tremendously expensive,

with researchers estimating that it

could cost the government into the hundreds of billions

of dollars.

There is a third way available.

The US government could decide instead

to allow anybody to enrol in a plan

under the Obama-era Affordable Care Act.

Now this would mean that people could

get a relatively low-cost plan, but still

from a private supplier.

It would seem to be a compromise of sorts,

but the problem is the Republicans have

spent much of the last few years arguing

that Obamacare, as it is commonly known,

should be rolled back, not extended.

Changing their minds on that could lose them

a lot of their key support.

Whichever way this works out, it could be

an advantage for the Democrats.

Either there is a wide expansion of government-backed health

care, which is something many on the Left

have argued for for years.

Or there isn't, and the Democrats

can go into the next election promising

to look after tens of millions of people who otherwise

have been forgotten about.

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