presented by the chief EU negotiator at the European Council.

This slide is amazing and I want to talk to you about it.

So, since the Brexit breakup the EU and the UK have been trying unsuccessfully to broker a deal,

and this slide makes it painfully clear why that has made such little progress over such a long time.

It started with brexit where the UK voted to leave the European Union;

now, what that means isn't exactly clear because the EU has a core center

but it also has many orbits of relationships.

So, the EU and the UK needed to figure out where they were as a couple

and the UK has a list of deal-breakers that, at least at time of recording, are non-negotiable-

and that's fine! Everyone has relationship deal-breakers. It would be unhealthy not to.

Anyway, core no more

the EU's next closest relationships are with Norway Iceland and Liechtenstein

as part of the European Economic Area.

This is a kind of "EU Light"

They're part of the unified EU economy with the EU's four freedoms:

Free movement of goods, free movement of services, free movement of capital, and free movement of people

So, as an Irish citizen, since Ireland is "Core EU",

I could go live in a cabin in Norway, even though they're not Core EU

because of the free movement of people and vice versa

Now for the UK free movement to people is a huge deal

Shut it down – deal-breaker

This makes an EEA style relationship. Just impossible

So the next relationship orbital out is Switzerland who has a unique relationship with the EU

She's not EU core,

she's also not in the EEA,

and she is completely landlocked by EU core members

(I mean except for Liechtenstein)

So perhaps inevitably despite not being part of the EU in any way

she has over a hundred bilateral treaties with the EU

integrating their economies

which means that Switzerland has given up complete regulatory autonomy on goods and services to facilitate trade

This is also a deal breaker.

Switzerland's treaties grant freedom of movement– deal-breaker

–and Switzerland makes significant financial contributions to the EU– deal breaker.

These two things are also part of the EEA

So while Switzerland isn't an EU member, in fact, she is

basically in practice, but also, like the EEA members,

lacks representation in the Parliament of EU Core

So, Switzerland's relationship with the EU is also not one that the UK wants to emulate

this now moves us to the outermost orbitals

and we get into the really deep asterisks of European Union foreign relationships

This is stuff like the European Eastern Partnership and the deep and comprehensive trade agreements

Which sounds like political dirty talk

or the European neighbourhood policy.

a lot of the aims of these things is to bring neighbours more in line with Europe

either with what the EU politely calls "The Promotion of Human Rights" or trade integration

but both of these bring up the final deal breakers for the UK

taking Ukraine as an example, while not remotely in EU member or even close,

she has agreed to let the European Court of Justice have some jurisdictional power in her borders

This is required by the EU for Ukrainian participation in Interpol

A kind of FBI for the EU that works on cross-border crime. Nonetheless European Court of Justice

jurisdiction does mean giving up some sovereignty on some issues

and that's a deal breaker or take Turkey who can participate in trade negotiations under the aegis of the EU

Presumably to benefit from the trading power a large bloc has but this means Turkey doesn't have complete independence in matters of trade policy

Deal-breaker and so now we've passed the outermost orbital. Where a

relationship even means anything and so end up in an inevitable no deal with the EU and UK's relationship being just

regular countries to each other in the World Trade Organization

Membership of which is basically every country on Earth

So the progress from EU core out to No

Deal is what this slide is showing: why the EU

thinks that path is the only path but the UK has been saying very loudly she wants to deal while also saying brexit means brexit

She wants independence but also wants a relationship that's deeper and more comprehensive with the EU than just the cold

WTO rules, but for the EU it's

impossible to see how to satisfy those desires contradictory without triggering the UK safeword

Which is probably why this EU negotiation strategy slide wasn't a secret

but was published back in December of 2017

by the lead negotiator in front of the heads of state because this isn't a secret strategy

It's a clear illustration of the mechanistic results of all of the UK's deal-breakers

I really do think this is a pretty amazing infographic in terms of clarity for a horrifically

complicated topic which is why I just had to make this footnote to share it with you because

I could not bear to let it fade away into my notes as just part of the background reading

anyway

that is why the brexit timeline has been so long with so little happening the UK has mutually

exclusive wants as also discussed in the main video in a different area and

It's really all down to the UK

She could stick with the deal-breakers and go it alone

Or she can drop some and settle in an orbital relationship with the EU, but she can't have both I guess

We'll see what happens soon

maybe