Name: 為什麼COVID-19如此難以追蹤？ (Why Is COVID-19 So Hard to Track?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T10:57:29.000Z
Duration: 7 min 10 s

Since its debut in December 2019, we've been hit with a deluge of information about

自從 2019 年 12 月首次亮相以來，我們得到太多有關新型冠狀病毒的消息，

the novel coronavirus that has often made it difficult to separate fact from fiction.

而且常常難以區分事實與假消息。

轉承詞

And that's because with each day, we're learning more about the virus behind this global pandemic.

這是因為我們每天都更加了解這種全球大流行背後的病毒。

As new data has radically altered the scope of COVID-19, we wanted to take this chance

由於新資料徹底改變了 COVID-19 的範圍，因此我們希望藉此機會

to cut through all the misinformation and take a closer look at what exactly it is,

釐清所有錯誤資訊，並仔細研究其確切資訊，

the latest info about how it attacks our bodies, and how its stealthy nature has completely shut down our world.

關於它如何攻擊我們的身體，以及其秘密性質如何完全癱瘓地球。

We haven't been in a situation like this in over 100 years.

我們已經有 100 多年沒有遇到這種情況了。

No one has experienced a virus that's had this combination of ease of transmissibility and mortality.

沒有人經歷過一種病毒，具有容易傳播和死亡率的雙重結合。

I'm an infectious disease doctor and professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA.

我是 UCLA 的傳染病醫生兼醫學與流行病學教授。

I've been an infectious disease physician for about 30 years and an epidemiologist for 25.

我擔任傳染病醫師已有 30 年，而流行病學家也有 25 年了。

Known for the spike proteins on their surfaces, coronaviruses are a large family of viruses

冠狀病毒以其表面的刺突蛋白而聞名，是一大類病毒

that can cause respiratory illnesses like the common cold and more severe ones like

可能導致呼吸道疾病，例如普通感冒，以及更嚴重的疾病，

And here's what we know so far about what the virus does to your body.

到目前為止，這是我們對病毒目前影響身體的資訊。

Once it enters the respiratory tract through the nose, mouth, or eyes, it attaches itself

一旦它透過鼻子、嘴巴或眼睛進入呼吸道，很可能

to the surface of a cell likely via a receptor called ACE2.

會通過稱為 ACE2 的受體並附著在細胞表面。

The virus then fuses with the cell's membrane, and releases its RNA.

病毒接著與細胞膜融合，並釋放 RNA。

The infected cell then begins to make copies of the virus that will continue their invasion throughout the body.

然後，受感染的細胞會開始複製病毒，繼續在整個人體中傳播。

But when it comes time for the immune system to fight back, it's a bit of a mixed bag

when it comes to the human body's response.

Severe disease occurs in about 15% of individuals, and about 5% of individuals are so sick that

大約 15％ 的人會有嚴重疾病，約 5％的人病得很重，

they need to go into an intensive care unit and probably end up on a ventilator.

而且需要進入加護病房，還可能需要人工呼吸器。

Now keep in mind, most of the statistics we have come from a study of roughly 72,000 COVID-19 patients in China.

請記住，我們大多數的統計資料來自中國對大約 72,000 名 COVID-19 患者的研究。

In this study and others since, severe cases displayed an intense cough, high fever, shortness

在此研究和其他研究中，嚴重病例出現劇烈咳嗽、高燒，呼吸急促

of breath—and in some cases, pneumonia.

In the more extreme cases, there has been increasing evidence that patients' immune

在更極端的情況下，越來越多的證據表明患者的免疫系統

systems are overreacting to the virus in a specific way.

會以特定方式對病毒過度反應。

So the cytokine storm are the chemical signals that the immune system is releasing to basically

細胞激素是免疫系統釋放的化學信號，從根本上消除

call out all the forces to try to eliminate the virus.

And in the process of doing that, they can also damage normal cells like cells in the

在這樣的過程中，它們還會破壞正常細胞，例如肺中的細胞，

lung that make it difficult or impossible for the individual to breathe.

And since our organs need oxygen to function, complications from the disease can lead to organ failure and even death.

由於我們的器官需要氧氣才能作用，因此疾病引起的併發症會導致器官衰竭甚至死亡。

And if you still think that these severe cases only affect the elderly or those with pre-existing

如果你仍覺得這些嚴重的病例只會影響老年人或糖尿病

conditions—like diabetes, heart disease or asthma—think again.

心臟病或氣喘等疾病歷史的患者，最好再好好想想。

Recent CDC data reported an increased number of hospitalizations among healthy adults in

CDC 的最新資料顯示，美國 20 至 54 歲健康成年人中

the U.S. between the ages of 20 and 54 years old.

Why one person will develop very severe disease and potentially die and another person not

為什麼有人會發展成非常嚴重的疾病，而且可能死亡，但另一個人

is not entirely clear, but it's probably genetically determined by small differences in the way

為什麼還完全不清楚，這可能是因為免疫系統對特定病原體起作用

your immune system works and responds to a certain pathogen.

和反應上的細微差異遺傳決定的。

I'm a professor of medicine at the Mayo Clinic, School of Medicine and Sciences.

我是梅奧診所醫學院的醫學教授。

I've been in infectious diseases for 40 some odd years.

我對傳染病有 40 多年的經驗了。

Now for those who experience a milder form of COVID-19, diagnosis can be difficult to pin down.

對於 COVID-19 輕微症狀的患者來說，很難確定確診。

Common symptoms include low-grade fever, fatigue, and a dry cough, but as we learn more about

常見症狀包括低燒、疲勞和乾咳，但隨著我們對這種疾病的了解越來越多，

the disease, there have been reports of a much wider and surprising array of effects.

有報導稱其症狀範圍更廣且令人驚訝。

A notable symptom that has occurred is loss of smell.

Why some people are presenting with diarrhea as the first manifestation?

為什麼有些人以腹瀉為首要症狀？

Why some people, are presenting as if they're having a heart attack with severe chest pain without any cough at all?

為什麼有人表現出好像有嚴重的心臟病，而且伴隨嚴重的胸痛，但卻完全不會咳嗽？

Luckily about 80% of cases will experience this milder form of the disease.

幸運的是，約 80％ 的病例會有這種輕微症狀。

But what makes COVID-19 so mysterious is that its milder cases can look like the common

但是，COVID-19 如此神秘的原因是，其輕微症狀感覺就像是普通感冒或流感，

cold or the flu or even go completely unnoticed.

What we're learning from COVID-19 is that individuals are infectious, before they

我們從 COVID-19 學到的是，個體具有傳染性，

have any symptoms like fever, cough, or sore throat.

但沒有發燒、咳嗽或喉嚨痛等症狀。

An asymptomatic case is someone who would test positive without ever developing symptoms,

無症狀病例是指沒有任何症狀卻檢驗出陽性，

while a pre-symptomatic case would test positive before developing a cough or a fever.

而尚未出現症狀的病例會在咳嗽或發燒前檢驗出陽性。

也就是說……我們的檢驗完全沒意義。

In COVID-19's case, preliminary data out of Singapore suggests that presymptomatic

在 COVID-19 的病例中，新加坡的初步資料表明，尚未出現症狀的病例

cases are contributing to the spread of this disease, while here in the U.S., the head

正在助長疾病傳播，美國 CDC 負責人日前指出，

of the CDC recently suggested that asymptomatic cases could make up as many as 25% of the total infections.

在美國，無症狀病例可佔感染總數的 25％。

But because the person has no symptoms, they don't realize they shouldn't be going out,

但因為此人沒有症狀，所以沒有意識到自己不應該出門，

they shouldn't be interacting with others.

And that stealthiness of it, the ability to transmit without symptoms, is part of what

它的神秘性，也就是無症狀的傳播能力是

There are data to show that even before individuals have symptoms there's a lot of virus in the body.

有資料指出，即使在個體沒有症狀之前，體內仍存在許多病毒。

And the more virus there is in the body, the more easily that virus can be generated in

而且，體內病毒越多，病毒就越容易以

droplets and spread to other individuals.

飛沫的形式產生並傳給其他人。

That's part of why testing is so important.

Right now, it's believed that it takes on average 5-6 days after exposure, and sometimes,

目前，一般來說感染後平均需要 5-6天，

有時甚至需要 14 天才會開始有症狀。

So that's why measures like social distancing and hand washing are so crucial to stem the

這就是為何社交距離和洗手之類的措施，是防止 COVID-19 傳播如此重要的原因，

spread of COVID-19, especially when you're dealing with a virus that has a higher rate of transmission, or “R nought,” than the flu:

尤其在處理比流感更高的傳播率或「R 0 值」的病毒時。

Influenza is typically a little bit more than one.

Based on early studies, the R nought reproduction number for COVID is about two and a half.

根據先前的研究，COVID 的 R0 值約為 2.5。

So for every one person infected, somewhere between two to three new infections incur.

因此，每感染一個人，就會產生兩到三個新的感染。

COVID-19's stealthy nature makes it unlike anything we've ever seen.

COVID-19 的隱密性和我們曾見過的疾病都不同。

And we know that with all the information out there, it can feel overwhelming.

我們知道，有了這些資訊，可能會讓人感到不知所措。

But from vaccine development to antiviral therapy to advanced contact tracing and testing

但是，從疫苗開發到抗病毒治療，再到先進的接觸者追蹤和檢驗策略，

strategies, the world at large is better scientifically equipped than ever before.

整個世界的科學配備比以往都更好。

It might take a little while, but we can tackle this unprecedented challenge, and it all starts with you.

可能要花一點時間，但是我們可以解決這個前所未有的挑戰，而這一切要從你開始。

The hardest thing, I think, for health care workers and people in general, is the scope of the disease.

我認為，對於醫療人員和一般人來說，最難的是疾病範圍。

Society is not used to something like that.

You have an active role to play by staying at home, by washing your hands, and by helping

你可以待在家裡，勤洗手並幫助其他人待在家裡，

other people to stay at home and be isolated if they're sick.

並在生病時與外界隔離，進而發揮主動的作用。

So I just want to thank everybody for doing their part to help us all get through this pandemic.

我只想感謝每個人為幫助度過大爆發所做的貢獻。