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  • - Hi everyone, welcome to our Daily Homeroom live stream.

  • This is a way that we're trying to keep everyone

  • in touch during school closures.

  • It's a place for us to answer any questions you have,

  • talk about how we can just navigate this crisis together.

  • We have a really exciting guest today, Ray Dalio.

  • I'll give him a more formal introduction in a little bit.

  • But before we get into the meat

  • of that conversation with Ray,

  • I'll just remind everyone Khan Academy

  • is a not-for-profit organization.

  • We exist because of philanthropic donations

  • from folks like yourself.

  • And I wanna give a special shoutout to several corporations

  • who stepped up in the last few weeks to make sure,

  • Khan Academy was running at a deficit even

  • before this crisis and our deficit has grown

  • through the crisis,

  • and special shoutout to Bank of America,

  • to Novartis, to Fastly,

  • to Google.org and AT&T

  • for helping us respond to this crisis.

  • But we still need more support,

  • so if you're in a position to do so,

  • please think about making a donation to Khan Academy.

  • But with that, I'd like to introduce our guest

  • that I'm super excited about.

  • Ray Dalio has been something a hero of mine

  • back from my previous career

  • when I used to be a hedge fund analyst.

  • For those of you all who don't know Ray,

  • Ray is the founder of Bridgewater Associates,

  • which is the largest hedge fund in the world.

  • And so I think we're gonna have a really interesting

  • conversation about finance, the economy that we're in,

  • and a lot of the work that Ray and his wife, Barbara,

  • are doing around philanthropy to try to help address issues

  • around education and other things.

  • And so if anyone has questions,

  • feel free to come on Facebook and YouTube

  • on the message boards, we have team members

  • looking at questions.

  • Ask questions about the economy,

  • ask questions about hedge funds,

  • ask questions about education.

  • Ray's going to, and myself,

  • will hopefully be able to address a lot of them.

  • So, Ray, thank you so much for joining.

  • - It's always great to be with you.

  • - And, Ray, maybe a good place to start,

  • and full disclosure, Ray and Barbara have been

  • long-time supporters of Khan Academy

  • and philanthropy in a lot of different dimensions,

  • so thank you for that.

  • But when you say "the largest hedge fund in the world",

  • I think a lot of people have heard of the word

  • hedge fund, but then they say,

  • "What is a hedge fund?"

  • (laughs) So what do you do?

  • How is that different than other types

  • of investment vehicles?

  • - Well, most investment vehicles

  • go up or down with the markets,

  • like the stock market goes up,

  • they make money, stock market goes down,

  • they lose money.

  • Some go into bonds and so on.

  • A hedge fund doesn't have a bias,

  • so you can make money if it goes down,

  • you can make money if it goes up.

  • It just depends on whether you can make money.

  • So we can invest in all the markets in the world,

  • and we can do it in a way where if they went down

  • or went up, you have opportunities to make money.

  • The only thing that limits us

  • is our own abilities.

  • - Yep.

  • With the explanation I always used to give to folks

  • when I was an analyst at a hedge fund

  • is hedge funds have more flexibility

  • to make more different types of investments.

  • Now, there's a huge variety of them,

  • of different strategies.

  • But to your point, they don't necessarily

  • just track the market type of thing.

  • - Yes, and ours,

  • it's an extension of my own personal passion,

  • which is to understand how the world works,

  • economically, every country.

  • So we're in just about every country,

  • just about every market,

  • and so we have to see the world

  • and try to piece it all together.

  • So that's my passion.

  • - And maybe that's a good place to start,

  • at a very high level,

  • because even before the COVID crisis started,

  • this was many months ago,

  • you have been a very vocal speaker and writer

  • about wealth inequality.

  • And when you speak, people are listening

  • because, obviously, you understand the economy,

  • you manage a lot of assets.

  • What's your view on this issue of wealth inequality?

  • - Well, I think it comes down to values, you know?

  • I was born in 1949.

  • In 1945, we began a new world order.

  • What I mean is we created a new monetary system,

  • the United States won the war,

  • and we began an American era.

  • And at that time,

  • it was clear what an American dream was.

  • And so I grew up in a household

  • where I've got two parents,

  • my dad was a jazz musician, lower-middle-class family.

  • But the notion of equal opportunity

  • through good education, I went to a public school,

  • and that notion of what was fair,

  • equal opportunity on a broad-base basis,

  • was what the American dream was.

  • I'm not sure that everybody would know

  • what the American dream is or state it that way,

  • but in any case,

  • it's become lost to where it certainly doesn't exist,

  • in that when we take education, for example,

  • I looked the conditions

  • of the different top quintile, top 20%,

  • next 20%, and I found

  • that the top 40% of the population

  • spends on average five times as much money

  • on their kids' education as the bottom 60%.

  • And so through intimate contact, and so on,

  • we can see that there is not just a wealth gap,

  • there's an opportunity gap

  • and a productivity gap that's a problem.

  • And it's a problem in terms of its outcomes,

  • the wealth difference.

  • But it's also a structural problem

  • in that all the people can't be,

  • have an equal shot at being productive.

  • And when you see some of the conditions,

  • kids who are living in neighborhoods

  • of poverty and go to school to get food

  • because they don't have enough at home,

  • and the services, something's wrong.

  • So I wrote a piece that's on LinkedIn,

  • which is Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed,

  • because I believe that,

  • first of all, if you don't have a situation

  • where people have opportunity,

  • you're not only tapping, failing to tap

  • all the potential that exists,

  • which is uneconomic,

  • but you're also threatening the existence

  • of the system, and I think that's coming to home

  • very clearly with this downturn in the economy

  • and the virus.

  • - And to be clear, I'm looking at some of your blog,

  • you wrote Why and How Capitalism Needs to be Reformed,

  • the data is very clear, that's not under debate,

  • that inequality has gotten worse

  • over the last several decades.

  • You have charts like, you look at per capita GDP,

  • and for the bottom 60% of earners,

  • it's grown much slower than per capita GDP,

  • and for the top 40%, it's grown much faster.

  • And that leads to what you just talked about,

  • people at the upper quartiles

  • are able to spend more on their children's education,

  • so that kind of becomes a self-perpetuating thing.

  • Why do you think this has been the case?

  • What are the structural elements that have caused this?

  • And in your opinion, what needs to change?

  • - Yeah, great question,

  • because I don't think it's anybody's evilness,

  • at least not many people's evilness,

  • it is structural.

  • So, for example, the profit-making system

  • is a system in which it's a very effective resource

  • allocation because if what you are putting out

  • is worth more than what it costs you to make it,

  • you grow and you get capital that's invested in it,

  • and it grows that way.

  • But it's not effective in a number of ways.

  • The profit-making system, for example,

  • is not effective in creating educational resources well.

  • And so that large gap becomes a self-reinforcing gap,

  • particularly in this age

  • when there's a change in the economic rewards

  • for production workers, the average worker.

  • There's a hollowing out there.

  • And so profit margins increase,

  • and then, as you point out, it becomes self-perpetuating

  • because those who earn more money

  • take care of their children differently,

  • so it creates an opportunity gap.

  • They spend money on different things,

  • and so resources of the country go into those things.

  • And then naturally in a desire

  • to produce most cost effectively,

  • they go internationally

  • and find the most cost-effective ways of operating,

  • which has narrowed the wealth gap

  • between countries, but widened it within countries.

  • And then, also, we have a monetary policy

  • with the Federal Reserve

  • that buys financial assets.

  • In other words, the central bank,

  • the way it has been operating

  • when you hit zero interest rates

  • is to print money and then buy financial assets

  • which helps those who own financial assets

  • more than those who don't.

  • So the profit-making system and the capitalist system

  • in which you can invest in profitable enterprises

  • is good, generally speaking, as a resource allocation

  • but far from perfect.

  • So we just have to see those outcomes,

  • and you would say, "Are we producing

  • "a broad-based opportunity?"

  • And so it can't do everything.

  • So think about, let's say, a school system,

  • a budget for a school system,

  • it's budget based.

  • In other words, they don't have capital,

  • but yet, think about the economic impact simply

  • of educating children well.

  • So the point is that it's by and large

  • a pretty good system,

  • but it's not delivering the results

  • that I think we want.

  • And so my concern is that if it's not engineered correctly

  • to achieve that,

  • it can become less productive.

  • So from an engineering point of view,

  • you have to engineer it to increase the size of the pie,

  • which means increase people's productivity,

  • because you only get to consume what is produced.

  • So to raise living standards,

  • you have to increase productivity and, at the same time,

  • so you have to increase the size of the pie,

  • you also have to divide the pie well,

  • and it's gonna require a better engineering system.

  • And that is gonna have to be done, I think,

  • in a bipartisan way.

  • I'm really worried about the battle between the sides

  • causing more problems.

  • Because history has shown that this is a period

  • very much like the 1930s,

  • and when you have wealth problems and wealth gaps

  • and difficult times,

  • there tends to be a fight over how to divide the pie.

  • - And so I'm hearing, just to paraphrase what you said,

  • several levers that might have maybe gotten us here,

  • and once again, it's not anyone's negative intent,

  • it's just the reality,

  • technology has made knowledge work maybe more productive

  • and has maybe commoditized some labor type of work.

  • And then you add globalization there,

  • that also puts wage pressure, at least domestically,

  • especially in rich countries if some of that work

  • can go other places,

  • and then that can be self-perpetuating.

  • The people who have more are able to invest more

  • in their children and have more opportunities.

  • What do you think is the--

  • - And the Federal Reserve, as they buy financial assets,

  • helps people who have financial assets,

  • which they needed to do.

  • The policies that we're now seeing

  • now are more targeted than they were before.

  • - And that goes to a question from Twitter,

  • Ken asks, "I wanna understand

  • "what the Fed-printed money or government stimulus

  • "is going to."

  • And you just explained, the Fed-printed money

  • is going to go buy financial assets,

  • traditionally Treasury bonds,

  • but other things when it gets more aggressive.

  • "I wanna understand how the new money

  • "is flowing to the system."

  • So I guess you could go over that a little bit,

  • but what do you think are gonna be the main implications

  • of this kind of aggressive action

  • of where the money is flowing in,

  • either from fiscal or monetary policy?

  • - Well, thank you for that question.

  • Is it Fred?

  • Thank you, Fred.

  • - Ken, Ken.

  • - Ken, thank you, Ken.

  • Yeah, what we had before was what I described,

  • that the Federal Reserve would buy bonds

  • and then it would go in the financial system

  • 'cause the seller of bonds

  • would get the cash, and they were an investor,

  • so they would buy more investments,

  • and it wouldn't trickle down in the same way.

  • What we have now is exactly what happened

  • in the Great Depression.

  • April 9th of this year was exactly

  • like March 5th, 1933.

  • And in March 5th, 1933, the newly elected

  • President Roosevelt got on a fireside chat

  • and explained that they were going

  • to produce a lot more money by central banks,

  • and they were going to devalue the dollar,

  • and they were going to enter into a lot of programs.

  • So these programs,

  • but I should explain,

  • the central government has the right to tax

  • and spend and determine how they do that,

  • but it doesn't have the right to print money.

  • The Federal Reserve, the central bank,

  • has the right to print money,

  • but they don't have the right to determine how it's spent.

  • And so in coming together, the Federal Reserve

  • and the government, central government, target programs.

  • And so they're now targeted at individuals which,

  • so the government, central government,

  • is targeting individuals, companies, and so on

  • in a number of ways,

  • and the Federal Reserve is buying the debt

  • so that they do that.

  • So they're producing new money and credit,

  • and that'll have implications for the value of money

  • and credit, but it's much more targeted.

  • So we now see those programs targeting,

  • of course, they're complex,

  • but they really are targeted more

  • for individuals and small businesses,

  • although there are big businesses targeted as well.

  • So that's the nature of the dynamic.

  • That money and credit, like in the Great Depression,

  • will reverse deflation.

  • I could explain if,

  • I worry that sometimes I answer the questions too long,

  • but there are economic holes.

  • You can think about it as a hole in income

  • and a hole in balance sheets.

  • And if you don't fill those holes,

  • then there will be less spending

  • and there'll be asset sales.

  • So that produces a deflationary depression.

  • So the actions that are now being taken

  • are meant to fill those holes

  • for Americans, others outside the country

  • will not have that benefit.

  • But they're targeted to fill those holes,

  • and it won't be inflationary

  • because it's negating deflationary.

  • But we're entering a whole new period of time,

  • which I hope we can talk about.

  • - Yeah, and that's talk about that a little bit.

  • From YouTube, Rochan Sante asks,

  • "So is it confirmed the economy will go

  • "into recession after this coronavirus?

  • "I'm more worried about the recession than the virus,

  • "because I'm afraid of jobs being lost."

  • What's your view there

  • of what's likely to happen as we go

  • out of the coronavirus?

  • Or maybe just what's likely to happen

  • over the next 18 months where it still might be out there.

  • - I think of the virus like being a tsunami

  • that's come, and then when it goes away,

  • let's say it was to go away forever,

  • there's still terrible damage.

  • And the terrible damage is to incomes

  • and to balance sheets.

  • Every individual, every company,

  • and every government has a certain amount of revenue

  • and a certain amount of expenses,

  • and then they have a savings,

  • a certain amount of balance sheet.

  • Those have been severely damaged.

  • So the loss of income, and bring it down relative

  • to expenses, is necessitating cutbacks.

  • And then the balance sheets means great losses.

  • Think about companies like Disney,

  • by way of example.

  • You think where was Disney?

  • Well, Disney will have that yet,

  • many, many companies,

  • many individuals, many small businesses,

  • that financial damage

  • is a great, great damage.

  • This will be the worst economic downturn

  • since the Great Depression.

  • The unemployment rate will approach 20%,

  • the downturn in the economy will be the largest

  • since the Great Depression,

  • and the financial consequences, the financial wreckage,

  • of this will be of that magnitude.

  • The good thing is that the government

  • is acting quickly to fill those holes in.

  • However, it's not being felt

  • by everybody the same way.

  • When you think of the economy,

  • there's the rich and the poor,

  • and it's going up and down,

  • I think we think that when it returns,

  • it's just gonna come back to what it was.

  • There's gonna be a restructuring of that.

  • There's gonna be a restructure.

  • People will think, policymakers will think,

  • who's going to pay what?

  • What bills?

  • And what should it be going forward?

  • So there'll be a reallocation of resources,

  • tax rates are going to change,

  • and also thoughts of spending to,

  • I think to establish more of an acceptable bottom.

  • Because it's so disproportionately felt

  • by those who don't have savings

  • or don't have conditions.

  • We can see just even

  • groups that have social contact, the poor,

  • live closer together.

  • And so in many, many different ways

  • that will be rethought about.

  • - And what do you think is the limit

  • of government action?

  • As you mentioned, the government can borrow money

  • in the form of Treasuries

  • to spend on programs, the interest rate can stay down

  • if the Fed keeps buying those Treasuries

  • with printed money,

  • and just in the last few weeks, they've issued

  • $2 trillion of programs.

  • How many trillions can the government spend

  • to try to do this

  • before you start seeing things like inflation pick up?

  • - You have a situation where we're testing

  • the limits of our monetary policy,

  • the capacity to print money.

  • This is very much like the war years.

  • So in the Great Depression, there was this kind of spending

  • and these kinds of deficits,

  • and then when we went into the war,

  • those increased a lot.

  • And the Federal Reserve, in one fashion or another,

  • monetized that particular debt.

  • The real question is whether we can use that money

  • productively or whether it's wasted.

  • If it's productive, and also most importantly,

  • if our society is cohesive,

  • I think that we can get through this

  • in a managed way much like a war.

  • However, what really worries me

  • is the fragmentation, the anger,

  • or the carelessness of one extreme or another

  • to mess up the continued improvement of the pie.

  • I think there's an opportunity here

  • to restructure the system to be in a better way,

  • but it really requires, I think,

  • a cohesiveness, a bipartisanship,

  • a respect and understanding and empathy

  • for the various sides involved

  • so that that's done intelligently

  • and the country is brought together,

  • rather than fighting.

  • Because history has shown, like in the Great Depression,

  • if you go from country to country,

  • the reactions were very different.

  • In fact, in Europe and Japan,

  • for countries that were democracies,

  • the internal fighting was so bad

  • that the parliaments, their congresses,

  • chose to have autocratic systems special rights.

  • Hitler came to power 1933

  • because the internal fighting was so great,

  • and there could be a move to a more autocratic

  • and confrontational types of policies.

  • And because this is a world problem,

  • this is not just a US problem,

  • this is a world problem,

  • and there's competitions going on in the world.

  • China's a rising power.

  • And then there's a lot of part of the world

  • that won't have the support

  • that the United States has because we're blessed

  • to have the world's central bank.

  • We can produce dollars,

  • and dollars are a reserve currency.

  • That means they can be spent all around the world

  • and they're accepted.

  • Very few currencies are like that,

  • no currency is like the US Dollar.

  • So in a lot of parts of the world,

  • they're not going to be able to fill those holes

  • that the Federal Reserve can fill.

  • So we're gonna see a change, I think,

  • in the world order.

  • And it's gonna be, there'll be anger

  • and there could be fighting,

  • so how that's handled, I think, is the most important thing.

  • - And that's related to this question from YouTube.

  • Pearper asks, "Are you seeing any geopolitical risks

  • "or limitations of what the government can do?"

  • I mean, you're touching on this.

  • I mean, how do you think that'll evolve,

  • and what advice, how do we navigate?

  • You mentioned there's polarization in this country,

  • there might be polarization globally,

  • what can people do proactively

  • to get to the better outcome?

  • - Well, first,

  • I'd like to draw your attention to a series

  • that I'm writing on LinkedIn,

  • which is called The Changing World Order,

  • and what it is is it looks at history

  • going back the last 500 years,

  • because the same things happen over and over again

  • for almost the identical reasons.

  • And one could see where we are now,

  • as I said, very similar to the '35,

  • the 1930 to '45 period, or other cycles.

  • And so what happens is when you have a great empire,

  • the world's leading empire,

  • and it becomes more vulnerable

  • if it becomes financially overextended,

  • if the education isn't the same,

  • when rivals rise to strengthen it,

  • that's a time that it becomes challenged by,

  • in other words, it can be perceived

  • as a time of weakness.

  • And history has shown that it's also a time

  • of economic difficulty

  • and that leaders tend to be more populist,

  • more nationalist, more confrontational.

  • And so that is why there's a tendency

  • of conflicts, geopolitical conflicts,

  • world conflicts, that follow depression periods.

  • And so it's something that we have to be aware of.

  • There are tensions with Iran,

  • tensions with China, tensions there,

  • and if it's perceived as a time of vulnerability,

  • it can produce conflict.

  • History has shown that to be the case

  • over and over again.

  • So in that piece, we go back to 500 years

  • and we see the patterns.

  • - And--

  • - So it's something to be scared about.

  • Now, the second part of that question

  • is what do we do about it?

  • The question is we.

  • We, we're common people.

  • We each have whatever influence we have.

  • The most important thing is the behavior

  • of the people who have their hands

  • on the levers of power.

  • And so they will make those decisions.

  • And so I guess we affect them,

  • and we have a right, to some extent, to choose them.

  • And we also, hopefully,

  • don't make it so polarized

  • that we're in this battle together.

  • And so countries dealing with each other,

  • just like the individuals of the political factions,

  • those of the left and those of the right

  • within the country,

  • hopefully realize that the path

  • of doing it peacefully and productively

  • is so much better than the path of conflict.

  • Because if, and maybe that's the thing to pass around.

  • Because if there's conflict,

  • that conflict creates its own problems,

  • its own economic problems, its own social problems.

  • And that creates the worst economic output.

  • So it's really comes down to how we are with each other.

  • - Yeah.

  • No, and speaking about that,

  • from YouTube, Andres Pineronda asks,

  • "Please walk us through the restarting process

  • "of the economy," and maybe even how that might relate

  • to the geopolitics, but especially the economic.

  • "Would it be possible to come back suddenly

  • "from a 20% unemployment rate

  • "while after the 2008 recovery was quite more slow?"

  • And what you're suggesting is this might be a deeper

  • recession or even depression than 2008.

  • - Yeah, I think it's important to understand

  • that there's a productive economy,

  • so if there were no financial pieces,

  • no balance sheets and income statements,

  • there's just imagine there was no savings

  • and no financial assets,

  • that's kinda one part of the economy.

  • And it works with the other part of economy,

  • which is the financial part of the economy, assets.

  • You lend somebody money, they have to pay you back

  • and so on.

  • And they're both operating together.

  • So if we didn't have the financial part of the economy

  • and didn't have to have a debt restructuring,

  • you'd almost imagine, okay,

  • you can go on and work and the economy produce.

  • Well, they can't even produce at whatever level

  • it's capable of,

  • and so if it was not impaired by the virus,

  • why not go do the other things?

  • But when we have money and we have credit,

  • we have accounting.

  • And so we have companies with debts.

  • Like I live in the state of Connecticut

  • and the state of Illinois and so on,

  • they have their own financials.

  • And so the financial consequences of that,

  • meaning that certain people

  • are gonna need payments,

  • and when they go financially broke,

  • then that's going to be the impediment.

  • So the impediment to growth

  • is largely the financial impediment to grow.

  • And that is why that's so important to be dealt with.

  • We could all hear what we hear about the virus,

  • and there's a wide range of possibilities.

  • It's certainly case in past pandemics

  • that the possibility of it coming and going

  • and not being easy to deal with economically

  • could persist for a while.

  • And those economic consequences are very important.

  • So we're gonna come out of it with a restructuring.

  • One day it'll be gone,

  • and we will have a restructured economy then.

  • Who will pay what taxes,

  • who will have what wealth,

  • and how the resources will be distributed,

  • I think, will be restructured.

  • And how that's done will be important

  • to make sure that it's a productive way.

  • And that restructuring is historical.

  • So, as I say, 1930 to '45,

  • we started '29 to '38, really,

  • we had a depression,

  • and '33 they printed a lot of money,

  • and then we went into a war,

  • and then we had a giant restructuring.

  • And 1945 we began again.

  • And then we were off and had a period of prosperity

  • and that's normally the case.

  • Man's capacity to adapt

  • and invent is tremendous.

  • That's the greatest force.

  • So while we go through these restructurings,

  • I think that, at the same time,

  • there's this tremendous capacity to adapt

  • and restructure and get on to doing it again.

  • So I'm confident we'll get it behind us,

  • but I think it's probably gonna take a few years.

  • - And on that, just to break down some of what you said,

  • in the financial world, when you talk about a restructuring,

  • this is a company has some debt,

  • has to make interest payments,

  • it might have to renew that debt after some period,

  • and then if, for example, if you're an airline

  • and you're bringing in no revenue,

  • there's no way to pay that debt,

  • that's the type of restructuring you're talking about.

  • And then, separately,

  • there's a, I guess you could say, the real economy,

  • irrespective of how people finance things.

  • And that's where you're saying--

  • - Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt.

  • - No, no, go ahead.

  • No, no I'm just trying to paraphrase,

  • make sure I'm understanding--

  • - Well, on that first restructuring, it'll also

  • be a restructuring of who pays the bills.

  • So yeah, there'll be the corporate restructuring,

  • and somebody'll have an opportunity

  • to, let's say, buy that airline cheaply,

  • the debtors, but then we may not fly as much.

  • And so, I don't know, there'll be less planes,

  • and it'll all be adapted to in that system.

  • And then, at the same time, excuse me,

  • and then at the same time,

  • we're in a position where there are going

  • to have to be changes in taxes

  • and changes in restructuring wealth

  • and those kinds of changes.

  • They may affect how states are going to get it.

  • They may how we spend money on education.

  • They may affect how we spending money on healthcare.

  • We're going to have to spend,

  • we're gonna learn to save more,

  • because a lot of entities realized

  • that they didn't have a cushion.

  • So there'll be more savings and less spending,

  • and it'll be reconstructed as to how we do taxes

  • and spending and all of that too.

  • - And what I'm hearing from you is you're definitely

  • not seeing kind of an immediate bounce-bank.

  • If tomorrow the coronavirus just disappeared,

  • it's not like that everything would just

  • get rosy overnight.

  • There might be just the people who've lost their jobs,

  • they might not be hired immediately.

  • They have less purchasing power.

  • So what I'm hearing from you is it could be several years

  • for it to get back to normal.

  • - This will go on a while because of those economic

  • consequences, and then also consider

  • that it's gonna be worse in countries

  • that don't have reserve currency central banks,

  • most of the world.

  • And also we're going to make an adjustment

  • for self-sufficiency.

  • We were on a path to greater self-sufficiency

  • because of the rivalry, and could-be conflict,

  • with China and others,

  • in terms of we're a highly globalized economy

  • becoming much more of a self-sufficiency economy,

  • and even individuals are becoming more self-sufficient.

  • And that meant that the efficiencies that we had

  • by produce it wherever it's most cost effective

  • to produce it and ship it easily around the world,

  • that paradigm is shifting.

  • So we're going from an interconnected world

  • to a world that is going to be much more independent,

  • and that will make for less efficiencies and supply lines,

  • for example, and so that'll have an effect.

  • All of those are like sand in the gears.

  • - And what's your sense, given that this could

  • be a protracted recession or depression,

  • the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1930s,

  • you're a student of the market,

  • what's your sense of the last few weeks?

  • The market seems to be getting more and more optimistic.

  • - Well, I think it's very much like March 1933.

  • So let me recount,

  • there was a bubble,

  • the '20s were the Roaring Twenties

  • and people borrowed money to bet on it continuing.

  • That was very much like the time we were in,

  • people were borrowing money,

  • companies were borrowing money to buy back stocks and so on.

  • And then there was the bubble burst.

  • And so from '29 until 1932,

  • and then the beginning of '33,

  • 1932 we had the dive, Roosevelt was elected.

  • He was more of a populist of the left to redistribute.

  • And in March 5th, 1933,

  • he announced a program that's very much

  • the same as the program that we announced,

  • Americans announced, the President, the Congress,

  • and the Federal Reserve on April 9th.

  • And that bottom, that represented the exact bottom

  • in the stock market, the exact bottom in the economy,

  • because it produced a wave of money that hit.

  • And so while we went from the low in the economy

  • in 1932 into the beginning of '33,

  • there was a pickup in the economic activity

  • that carried further along.

  • So the Depression, reaching its economic activity,

  • it took about 10 years for the economy to get back,

  • a little less than 10 years,

  • and it really took going into the war

  • to get back where it was.

  • So I think it'll be somewhat similar

  • that what happens is there was the big printing of money,

  • and we call that reflation.

  • And with that reflation, that is what's supporting

  • assets like this.

  • So you see both stocks and gold go up.

  • However, we're in a period of time

  • where there's massive differences.

  • You talk about the stock market as a whole,

  • but the differences between the winners

  • and the losers is enormous.

  • And so when looking at stocks

  • or looking at any asset,

  • we have to appreciate the differences that exist there.

  • And also there's not much leeway in interest rates.

  • So the best way to get stocks to go up

  • is to get interest rates to go up

  • so there's a floor.

  • So I think we're in an environment

  • in which you're not going to see the return

  • to normalcy, but you're seeing this weight

  • of money force create the bottom,

  • right around the same time, same way

  • as March 5th, 1933,

  • you're seeing that weight of money come in

  • and have that effect.

  • And then I don't think it's gonna take it

  • to anything where it was,

  • 'cause conditions are much worse,

  • balance sheets, income statements.

  • And then there's going to be the value of money question.

  • Gold and other assets and storeholds of wealth

  • will enter into the picture,

  • so I think it's similar

  • and that differentiation's going to be very important

  • to know where to invest and where not to invest.

  • - So it's not so much that you're doubting the market,

  • the market is, as you said,

  • there's this weight of money flowing in

  • and it has to go someplace,

  • and that might be maybe forming something of a bottom,

  • or do you think that the market as a whole

  • is being overly optimistic

  • given some of the more pessimistic scenarios

  • that might happen?

  • - Well, if we take the market as a whole,

  • what we have is the Federal Reserve

  • and the federal government, I believe,

  • saying, "We will do whatever it takes."

  • And so if you saw that amount of money,

  • we've seen, we're gonna see another two trillion.

  • I think you'll see whatever amount of money

  • it takes, and that means,

  • so we're on that kind of a path.

  • The question will increasingly also be

  • what is the value of money

  • and whether it's a storehold of wealth.

  • And so that becomes the next risk to worry about.

  • So that's why I keep referring to storeholds of wealth

  • and stocks at the same time

  • as there's that reflation going on.

  • Because if you go down again,

  • and the unemployment rate goes up again, and so on,

  • the money and credit is just gonna keep comin'.

  • - We could talk `for a hour.

  • I just really looked at the time,

  • and I realized I've gone 10 minutes over,

  • so thanks for staying with us.

  • I do wanna get a chance to talk you to

  • a little bit about some of the amazing work

  • that you and Barbara are doing in philanthropy.

  • Tell us a little bit about this program

  • that y'all have just announced.

  • I guess even before the crisis,

  • you all were doing some pretty impressive

  • things in Connecticut,

  • but especially around device access most recently.

  • - Well, Barbara, I guess you're referring to--

  • - The laptop--

  • - Yeah, Barbara worked in the poor school districts

  • for the last 10 years helping them,

  • and we decided that we'd give $100 million

  • to the state of Connecticut

  • if the state of Connecticut would match it

  • to get disengaged and disconnected high school students,

  • students who wouldn't make it through high school

  • or stop working, to get them through high school

  • and to jobs.

  • And so we put that in place.

  • And then we just put in,

  • bought 60,000 computers for those students,

  • because those poor students don't have computers

  • and they can't do online learning.

  • And so that's one of the things that we've done.

  • We've done a number of other things,

  • food programs, supports in other ways,

  • but I think that's what you're speaking of.

  • And that's why we're excited to partner

  • with you and Khan Academy to get them

  • the great education that they otherwise

  • would not have.

  • And it was great.

  • I really wanna shoutout to Dell,

  • because there was a shortage,

  • there's a shortage of computers,

  • and how they were responsive,

  • and how they priced those computers at cost,

  • and provided those 60,000,

  • and then we put in about $25 million to do that.

  • We're able to get them and provide them education.

  • But it just highlights the differences

  • in the conditions between the different populations

  • and basic things like education or computers.

  • So, yeah, we're thrilled to do that,

  • hopefully together with what wonderful work you're doing.

  • - No, I'm talking to a lot of folks these days,

  • and Khan Academy, as much as we hope

  • it can help a lot of folks,

  • you need that device access, you need that internet access.

  • So the work that y'all are doing in Connecticut

  • is incredible, and we're hoping

  • it can set an example for many other groups

  • around the country or the world.

  • So, Ray, thank you so much.

  • I hope you can join the,

  • we have so many questions that I didn't get to.

  • I probably got to 5% of the questions

  • that people are asking.

  • I, personally, would also like to go much deeper

  • on some of these economic questions

  • to make sure I understand it a little bit better.

  • But thank you so much for joining today,

  • and I hope we can do this again sometime soon.

  • - It was a delight, anytime you want.

  • Look forward to it.

  • - Thanks, Ray.

  • So thanks everyone for joining today.

  • This was a great conversation.

  • Thanks for all of your questions.

  • I think we will be able to convince Ray to join again

  • and get to more of these questions.

  • But, once again, thanks for joining.

  • This is a really fun way for all of us

  • to stay in touch during this time of social distancing.

  • I will remind you, if you are in a position to do so,

  • please think about donating to Khan Academy.

  • And we look forward to seeing you

  • in future live streams.

  • Tomorrow, we're going to have four-star

  • General Stanley McChrystal on,

  • and we're gonna talk a lot of questions

  • about motivation and staying focused

  • and a little bit about maybe some of the geopolitics

  • of what we might be going into.

  • So thanks for joining.

  • Thank you, Ray, and I will see everyone tomorrow.

- Hi everyone, welcome to our Daily Homeroom live stream.

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Sal的每日課堂直播:4月23日星期四。 (Daily Homeroom Live with Sal: Thursday, April 23)

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