Name: 為什麼冠狀病毒的衰退與其他任何一次都不同？ (Why The Coronavirus Recession Is Unlike Any Other)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T10:52:43.000Z
Duration: 10 min 3 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。學這些英文用法：武漢肺炎,新型冠狀病毒,新冠肺炎,COVID-19

The Coronavirus pandemic is putting an end to the longest economic

history. We are going into a global recession.

Recession in the next quarter or two because everything is shutting down of

course. As millions of us remain under orders to stay home, factories have

It's almost like a meteor hit the entire planet.

And we have to now deal with the fact that we've been knocked off our

axis. The Federal Reserve and Congress are taking extraordinary steps to

Still, economists warn this recession will be unlike other downturns in

recent history because it was spawned by a health crisis, not by an

We may well be in recession, but again, I would point to the difference

This isn't, there's nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy.

So why is the coronavirus pandemic causing a recession and how long will it

last? In technical terms, economies enter a recession after

two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Now the U.S. government isn't scheduled to release first quarter GDP data

until the end of April and second quarter data until July.

So it'll be a while before the official verdict is in.

But many economists are already predicting double digit declines in GDP

growth in the second quarter of the year.

The biggest quarterly decline we've seen an annualized GDP growth was in

Most estimates now are for well over 10 percent.

This is probably gonna be the worst we've ever seen.

Based on a range of other indicators, many economists agree the U.S.

The first place we can see recessions signals is in the jobs market.

Industries like retail restaurants, air travel and hotels had laid off

thousands of workers as business has stopped.

Nearly 10 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance claims during

the final two weeks in March, the highest level on record after they were

let go from their jobs as their employers dealt with the impacts of the

virus. Some economists predict the unemployment rate could spike from

three and a half percent in February to 15 percent by the middle of the

year. The labor market is really a reflection of the broader economy, and

we're seeing a lot of signs that we're having a massive increase in

unemployment. Surveys of businesses and consumers are also pointing to a

companies reported the steepest downturn in economic activity since 2009.

Both the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy tumbled.

Some companies were already suffering from a supply shock after China shut

down factories earlier this year because of the Coronavirus.

Now, the U.S. economy is also suffering from a lack of demand as consumers

stay home. This drop in demand is reflected in the price of oil, which is

near its lowest level in nearly two decades.

Meanwhile, wild swings in the stock market also have Americans worried

about their savings and retirement accounts.

There's no way to sort of even get the calculus on how big of a disruption

this is, because it's really bringing the major parts of the U.S.

Some economists are looking to alternative sources of data to gauge the

economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic.

One early indicator is consumer spending at restaurants.

This chart shows restaurant reservations through open table in five

declined 100 percent during two weeks in March.

Consumer spending is over two thirds of the U.S.

economy. You knock out the consumer and you knock down the economy in an

extraordinary way. We're not only knocking out the consumer, we're

There is no precedent for a crisis like this.

These dire economic forecasts and dramatic moves in the stock market have

led some to believe this crisis could be worse than the financial crisis

that started in 2007 or maybe even than the Great Depression.

Depressions last much longer than recessions.

The Great Depression went on for more than a decade.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke studied the Great Depression

extensively and says the Coronavirus crisis is different.

This has some of the same feel, some of the feel of panic, some of the feel

But it's it's really it's much closer to a major snowstorm or natural

disaster than it is to a classic 1930s style depression.

The main reason this economic downturn is different than many others is

that it's not the result of instability in the financial system like we

saw in the banking sector in the 1930s, the dot com bust in the 2000s or

Instead, it's the result of measures needed to contain a health crisis

The most important differences this comes out of the real economy,

And people's choices with responding to that and not out of financial

excess. In the words of the current Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell

there was no fundamental problem with the economy when the virus hit.

This is a situation where people are being asked to step back from economic

activity, close their businesses, stay home from work.

Many economists say the challenge is to prevent the coronavirus health

crisis from turning into a prolonged financial crisis.

The risk is that a health crisis, something that through small businesses

out of business overnight, something that threw workers, millions of

A health crisis could become a Great Depression if we don't deal with it