A pandemic can have lasting effects on the global economy long after the infection rate has slowed down to a crawl.

即使感染率早已趨緩，嚴重疫情仍可能持續影響全球經濟。

What kind of effects?

會如何影響呢？

Well, today we turn our eyes to the Spanish Flu of 1918 — which killed around fifty million people worldwide, and infected five hundred million — in hopes of finding out.

這就得回顧 1918 年的西班牙大流感——它當時在全球奪走約 5000 萬條人命、感染 5 億人——來尋找答案了。

The human toll of the Spanish Flu pandemic was massive.

西班牙流感的死亡人數非常多。

Families and communities were utterly decimated by all the deaths, and funeral parlors were so overrun that many people had to bury their own dead.

家庭和社區人口大量染疫、死亡，殯儀館人滿為患以至於許多人必須自己埋葬親人。

Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum, so both the response to the pandemic and the pandemic itself affected the economy.

事態產生當然都有其原因，像是經濟情況會被防疫措施和流感本身直接影響。

Much like today, countless businesses had to close in order to delay the spread, and so many people died that a lot of valuable positions were left empty.

與最近的狀況相似，為了緩止疫期擴散，當時很多商家只能停止營業，許多人的死亡造成了重要工作崗位的空缺。

Public services like mail delivery and garbage collection were also brought to a dead stop.

例如郵務和垃圾回收等公共服務都只能喊停。

And crop yields were horrifically low because so many agricultural workers were sick or trying not to get sick.

農作物產量低落，因為農夫不是生病了就是為了避免染疫停止農務。

Between that and the first World War, it's remarkable that the Roaring Twenties even occurred.

在疫情的影響和一次世界大戰環伺之下，「狂飆二零年代」的榮景似乎特別難得。

Or is it?

是這樣嗎？

It's indisputable that the Spanish Flu took a major toll on human life, but can the same really be said for its effect on the global economy?

西班牙流感的確帶走許多人命，但對全球經濟的影響也一樣大嗎？

Let's take a more detailed look at the economic aftermath of the Spanish Flu to find out.

讓我們仔細看看西班牙流感對經濟的影響吧！

It can be surprisingly difficult to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic because its effects on the financial world are difficult to disentangle from the effects of World War I as a whole.

事實上，要評估疫情對當時經濟的影響相當困難，因為疫情期間一次世界大戰也影響著經濟環境，所以兩者的影響力難以劃分。

The World Economic Forum estimates that the average GDP and consumption per capita fell by 6 and 8 percent, respectively, but there's still significant gaps in the data.

世界經濟論壇估計，平均國內人均生產總值和人均消費額各減少了 6％ 和 8%，但這份資料還是有個巨大的缺漏。

If World War I hadn't occurred just prior, we may have been looking at a completely different set of circumstances.

如果一戰沒有剛好發生在流感之前，或許情況就完全不同。

But that's not the world we live in.

但一戰實際上就是發生了。

During the outbreak itself, the economy totally stalled, as businesses and events were shut down worldwide.

疫情爆發期間，經濟陷入困境，因為全球的交易和經濟活動都停擺。

Unlike many diseases, which typically target the young, sick, and the elderly, the Spanish Flu killed a disproportionate number of men and women aged 15 to 44.

和許多較容易感染老人、小孩和病人的疾病不同，西班牙流感導致的 15 至 44 歲的死亡人數，不成比例地多。

As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the disease when businesses finally reopened, they were faced with massive labor shortages thanks to the huge number of deaths from people in prime working age.

結果，公司行號終於重新開張後，疫情立即性的後果便是工作人口的大量死亡導致勞動力極為短缺。

Interestingly, for the remaining workers, there were actually wage increases because the post-flu economy put a real premium on labor.

有意思的是，倖存下來的人得以加薪，因為疫情後的勞動力更值錢了。

In other words, in the aftermath of this global pandemic, a good worker was hard to find, and when you happened to get your hands on one, it was worth a wage increase to retain them.

也就是說，在這波全球疫情之後，適合的僱員很難找，如果你剛好有個好員工，絕對值得加薪留住他。

Studies into the effects of the pandemic also found that investment in and use of social security systems, rose across the globe.

關於疫情影響的研究也指出：在全世界，社會福利的挹注金額和使用率都增加。

Children born during the outbreak also appeared to perform far lower than children born before or after, often falling into lower socioeconomic groups and experiencing higher rates of physical and mental disability.

疫情間出生的孩子，比起之前或之後出生的表現差，經常有較低的社會經濟地位，並有較高機率得到身心疾病。

This, arguably, had a far longer-lasting impact on the economy than even the deaths.

這對於經濟的影響可說是比染疫造成的死亡更大。

Those who were in poverty or just teetering above the poverty line, were much more likely to be locked into destitution by the pandemic.

貧窮人家或剛好在貧窮線以上掙扎的家庭，更容易因為疫情困於貧窮中。

Families lost breadwinners.

家庭失去負擔生計的人。

Small businesses were often seriously harmed, and the service and entertainment industries took a real hit.

小公司經常是損害最嚴重的，服務業和娛樂產業同樣遭受打擊。

A strange anomaly is the fact that the economy fared better after the Spanish Flu than most people did on an individual level.

反常的是，西班牙流感過後，總體經濟的表現比大多數個人的經濟狀況好。

While people lost families and friends, the economy recovered relatively quickly, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行的研究指出，人儘管們在疫情中失去親友，經濟回復卻相當快速。

In the words of the study itself, the Spanish flu pandemic was a "permanent influence not on the collectivities but on the atoms of human society: individuals.".

研究也提到：西班牙流感「對於個別而非群體社會有著永久的影響」。

The real surprise of the Spanish Flu's effect on the economy was that these effects were really nothing special in the long term.

或許令人驚訝的是，西班牙流感對於經濟的影響，長期來看根本沒什麼。

The outbreak was directly followed by the 1920s, held up by many as one of the greatest periods of economic prosperity in American history until the 1929 crash, which had literally nothing to do with the outbreak prior.

疫情之後緊接的是 1920 年代，被許多人認為是美國歷史上經濟最繁榮的時期，一直到 1929 年的股災為止，而股災和先前爆發的疫情一點關係都沒有。

How was it possible for such a huge catastrophe to have such an underwhelming effect on global economic systems?

西班牙流感這樣的大災難為什麼對全球經濟沒什麼影響呢？

Well, there are some theories.

嗯，有幾種理論：

For example, the economy was significantly less centralized in 1918 and 1919, meaning different areas bore the brunt of their own miniature economic struggles rather than experiencing every nationwide catastrophe as a single, devastating punch.

首先，1918 及 1919 年時，經濟活動相比現在沒有這麼集中化，也就是說國內各個區域分別承受小規模的經濟衝擊，而非屢次遭受全國性的毀滅衝擊。

On top of that, because the second wave of the Spanish Flu occurred during the first World War, it had no supply chains to disrupt, and the overall effect barely registered on the stock market as more than a blip.

除此之外，因為第二波的西班牙流感發生在一戰期間，供應鏈本來就已中斷，整體來看，對股市的影響微不足道。

Compared to the 2,000-point Dow Jones drop of recent pandemic, the Spanish Flu era-Dow barely moved.

相較最近疫情造成道瓊指數大跌 2000 點，西班牙流感時期的數字幾乎沒什麼動靜。

When the virus finally came to an end in February of 1919, the market immediately began a 50 percent climb that continued all the way into November of that year.

當疫情終於在 1919 年 2 月趨緩時，股市立即開始上漲，到同年 11 月時成長率達到 50%。

Economically, by the start of the 1920s, you would've barely know that the pandemic had even happened.

就經濟上來看，進入 1920 年代之後，甚至看不太出來流感曾發生過。

Well, beyond a 20 percent increase in housing prices.

好吧，除了房價上漲 20％ 之外，應該看不出來啦！

While our analysis of what really happened back then is somewhat limited by incomplete data sets, it does seem like the shock to the economic system caused by the Spanish Flu was largely temporary.

雖然我們對當時疫情影響的分析，有點被不完整的資料侷限了，但看起來西班牙流感的衝擊大多是暫時的。

Many individuals and families had their lives and livelihoods shattered, but the market ultimately turned out fine.

許多人和家庭的喪失生命和生計，但最終整體市場安然度過疫情。

Historian Robert Peckham summed up the feelings of many academics in his profession when he said, "Analogies create blind spots.".

歷史學家 Robert Peckham 總結了大多歷史學者的想法，提到：「類比使人盲目。」

It can certainly be interesting to observe pandemics of the past to see if they hold any insights into the economic effects of today's pandemics.

參考過去的疫情，以推測今日的疫情如何影響經濟很有意思。

But one hundred years after the Spanish Flu, the world has changed significantly.

但西班牙流感後的一百年，世界不一樣了。

We're dealing with a more complex and centralized economy, the world population is significantly higher, and global connectivity allows for viruses to spread faster than ever before.

我們面對的是一個更為複雜、集中化的經濟體系，人口也多得多，而全球的運輸連結使得病毒傳播前所未有地快。

There's no guarantee that what happened then will repeat itself under today's economic circumstances.

沒人能保證過去發生的事，會再次發生在現今的經濟環境中。

Though hoping for a current pandemic to mirror a past one that left around fifty million people dead is an ethical problem of its own.

而且期望現在的疫情和過去相同似乎不太道德啊，因為它造成了大約 5000 萬人死亡。

Thanks for watching this episode of The Infographics Show!

感謝收看！

Want to know more about some of history's most devastating diseases, or even more about this one?

想認識更多歷史上嚴重的疾病，或是更多西班牙流感的知識嗎？

Why not check out "Why The Spanish Flu Killed Over 50 Million People: Deadliest Plague In Modern History" and "Worst Plagues In The History of Mankind.".

歡迎參考：現代歷史上最致命的瘟疫 – 「為何西班牙流感殺死超過 5000 萬人？」或是「人類歷史上最致命的瘟疫」。

In the meantime, stay indoors and wash your hands.

與此同時提醒各位，少出門，勤洗手！