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When explosions crippled two oil tankers
in the Gulf of Oman on June 13,
the incident immediately
heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran
and raised alarms about the security
of a vital passageway for a third
of the world's petroleum.
The U.S. blamed Iran for unprovoked attacks
on the ship.
“— present a clear threat.”
Iran said American officials were “warmongering.”
The main evidence the U.S. has presented to the public
to support its claim are these photos
and this surveillance footage taken several hours
after the attack on one of the tankers.
The footage has significant gaps,
cuts out at key moments and zooms in and out.
It does not depict a single sequence
of events or an explosive being planted.
Days later, the U.S. released new images
to back up its claim.
They don't show definitively who is
responsible for the attacks.
But here's what the images do show us.
First, the tanker:
We can confirm that this tanker,
the Kokuka Courageous,
is the same ship that was approached
by the Iranian vessel.
These distinctive features match.
And shipping data confirms
it was 20 miles off the coast of Iran
when it was attacked.
Next, the patrol boat, which does appear
to be Iranian.
It matches the model and dimensions
of patrol boats used by the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy.
The chevron pattern on the bow of the boat matches,
and so does the center console.
And they both have antiaircraft guns.
An Iranian source familiar with the country's
military operations told us that this clearer picture
of the same patrol boat does show an I.R.G.C. vessel.
And the incident occurred in Iran's area of responsibility.
Last, the alleged mine:
A U.S. Navy ship took this photograph
before the Iranian patrol appeared.
It shows damage to the ship and what
appears to be an object protruding from the hull.
The new images released by the U.S. Defense Department
appear to show the outline of a limpet mine
similar to this mine design on the right.
The dimensions of the mine match.
These markings match clasps used
to attach the mine to the tanker and this remnant
matches the size and design of those clasps.
Weapons experts say this could resemble limpet mines that
are available to Iran, but there's
still no conclusive proof that they are Iranian.
So it appears that an Iranian boat
did remove a limpet mine from the ship's hull.
But importantly, the pictures released by the U.S.
lack the crucial piece of evidence:
The moment the mine was placed.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
has said that President Trump wants to avoid war.
“President Trump does not want war.
We will continue to communicate that message
while doing the things that are
necessary to protect American interests in the region.”
Even still, the Defense Department
decided to send 1,000 additional troops
to the region in response.
But as U.S.-Iran relations continue
to crumble, this slim waterway
will remain a hotbed of tension.