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  • - Hi, everyone, welcome

  • to the Khan Academy Daily Homeroom, Sal Khan here.

  • Thanks for joining us, we have a pretty exciting show

  • I guess today.

  • For those of you all that this is the first time

  • you're joining, the whole idea is in this time

  • of school closures, we at Khan Academy, we're trying

  • to make sure that you have the resources needed

  • to keep learning, that you know how to use those resources,

  • and, that we have ways to stay connected in times

  • of these closures.

  • And that's why we're doing this webinars

  • and why we're doing these live streams.

  • I do wanna highlight as I always do in the seminar,

  • in these live streams.

  • Khan Academy is a not for profit with a mission

  • of providing a free world class education

  • for anyone anywhere.

  • And we we're running in a little bit

  • of a deficit even before, this whole crisis struck

  • but now we're seeing our traffic is three acts

  • of what it normally is,

  • and so any support is super valuable.

  • I wanna give a special thanks to several corporations

  • that have stepped up in the last few weeks in record time,

  • Bank of America followed by AT&T, google.org, and Novartis.

  • And many of you have also helped donate

  • to help close our gap.

  • And with that, I wanna make sure we have

  • as much time as possible for our guest today,

  • I'll introduce someone who is known for many many things,

  • including one of being one of the longtime supporters

  • of Khan Academy, we have Bill Gates here today.

  • And, I encourage everyone, whether you're watching

  • on YouTube, or Facebook or any other platform,

  • post questions on the message boards,

  • we have team members who will surface questions

  • and I can ask bill those questions over

  • the course of our conversation.

  • So Bill, great to see you, maybe a good place

  • to start is, how is the situation affecting you personally?

  • How's the social distancing?

  • And where are you spending most of your time?

  • - Well, I think everyone's lives

  • are almost completely upended.

  • The normal, things I do, talking about Polio eradication,

  • going into meetings at the foundation, traveling

  • to meet with scientists.

  • That's all gone, when I wake up in the morning

  • and I think was this a nightmare?

  • Are we really in this almost different world?

  • Where Coronavirus is the top priority, we've got

  • to get this thing under control.

  • I'm doing lots of online meetings,

  • I use Microsoft Teams for those things.

  • I don't get to see many people beyond my family in person.

  • So it's a, huge adjustment and yet there's so much

  • to be done, It's like I'm not not busy.

  • - And where are you spending most of your time?

  • Is that around the virus work?

  • - Yes, that's, the our foundation works

  • on infectious diseases, we are the biggest funder

  • of vaccine work, we understand, how to make vaccines

  • in volume, we do the disease modeling.

  • And so, the skills that we have,

  • understanding private sector, being able to work

  • with governments, what regulatory things should

  • be maintained for safety, and which ones,

  • because we've got to move so fast, Should you go around?

  • and talking to leaders, talking to Tony Fauci,

  • About Okay, how do we make sure the public is seeing this

  • in the right way.

  • We explain, why it takes so long for a vaccine,

  • which is such a key thing to.. until we have that,

  • We can open up a bit but

  • we won't go back completely to normal.

  • And so we're orchestrating, all of our partners around,

  • getting the testing right, getting the drugs right,

  • and getting a vaccine which will will bring us

  • to the end of this.

  • - Yeah, now we're gonna talk more about that.

  • And actually, the first question I wanna surface

  • is from Facebook, Abid Sheikh,

  • and I think it's front of mind for a lot of us.

  • He writes Hello, since you predicted about

  • a similar outbreak in the 2015, Ted Talk,

  • how did you react to the news about the Covid 19 pandemic?

  • And that he's referring to a famously for

  • anyone who doesn't know, Bill made a talk in 2015,

  • that essentially was very prescient

  • of the situation we're in now.

  • - Yeah, and I wrote a New England Journal

  • of Medicine article that really went through

  • the specific things, like high speed diagnostics

  • and vaccine platforms that we needed to fund.

  • This is certainly a case where being able to say,

  • I told you so is not at all gratifying,

  • because this is a horrific disaster and in my lifetime,

  • whether it's health or economics or just uncertainty

  • for people, there's nothing like this.

  • And the goal there, was to get governments to step up,

  • so that you could easily make a new RNA vaccine

  • or you'd have, the testing capacity very, very rapidly.

  • I'm sure that because this is so widespread

  • that next time we will have made those investments,

  • but it's unfortunate that, very little got done in

  • our foundation, Wellcome Trust,

  • a few others did fund work along these lines,

  • but not enough.

  • And, you know, so here, here we are.

  • - And give us a sense of where we are right now.

  • And we could talk a little bit about maybe

  • what could or should have happened, but where are we now?

  • What's your analysis, how bad is the situation

  • in the US rest of world, how close are we to peak?

  • How's it's gonna play out over the next few weeks or months?

  • - Yeah so, the concept of exponential growth,

  • is not that intuitive to people,

  • but when you have this human

  • to human transmissible respiratory virus,

  • it creates exponential growth, that is each case leads

  • to, say two or more cases, and so, if we haven't changed

  • our behavior, there's no doubt the majority of people would

  • be infected, and you'd get this huge overload

  • of the medical system, and literally millions of deaths.

  • The reactions, whenever you're gonna stop something

  • that's exponential, the sooner you act,

  • the better because then you can act in a way that

  • you don't overload your hospital systems.

  • And you can treat the cases very, very well.

  • Testing is key to know where's the spread,

  • and to inform people that they need

  • to really isolate themselves, the tests

  • the PCR test can actually see the virus before

  • you're symptomatic, before you would

  • be transmitting to people.

  • And so, if we had had the testing right prioritized,

  • that would help with this, with the social isolation,

  • by the end of the month with any luck, we'll start

  • to see the curve level off.

  • And then another month, the number of cases would come down.

  • And you could get to a point where,

  • because you are targeting the testing

  • and giving quick results, that will do start

  • to open up in a way like China has where kids do go

  • to school, people go back to their jobs,

  • it's not normal that they don't do sports events

  • or big gatherings, that will wait until the vaccine

  • but we'd like, if things go well,

  • and the numbers will drive it. we'd like to see

  • thatability to open up somewhat by ideally early summer.

  • - And as we are all seeing evidence

  • that the social distancing is working that

  • we are on track to peak, in the next few weeks

  • and then, get to maybe a more a better state by the end

  • of, I guess would be by the end of May.

  • - Well, China had in Hebei Province, over 80,000 cases

  • and so that's the model where they intervened

  • in a very dramatic way,

  • they enforced their quarantine very strongly.

  • They did their contact tracing, they used the testing,

  • people would get testing results very quickly,

  • and it was the right people.

  • They are now, able to open up.

  • South Korea had reasonable number of cases,

  • but they did the testing did the tracing,

  • and so now they are in the situation where,

  • they've definitely bent the curve.

  • There are a few countries like Taiwan

  • who did all the right things and never allowed

  • the large numbers to develop.

  • That unfortunately for most countries,

  • we can't go back and change the fact we missed

  • that early opportunity, but they, there are communities

  • where we are starting to see the numbers peak

  • because of that social isolation, so that's the first step

  • is that peak, but you don't open up until

  • they're in absolute, way below,

  • like a factor of five below where they are today.

  • - Wow, and just from us, I don't know from either economic

  • or a scientific point of view,

  • why do we see this disparity in testing,

  • or even the types of tests?

  • In the US right now, even if you're kind of lucky enough

  • to get a test, so to speak, it could still take several days

  • to get a result, while you know, I heard stories

  • in Taiwan three months ago, you get your results

  • before you leave the airport?

  • - Yeah, the very sensitive test is

  • the Polymerase Chain Reaction PCR, where you make

  • the primer specifically for this virus.

  • It's an amazing test and there's a lot

  • of machines out there, in commercial labs, academic centers,

  • public health labs, that we were slow

  • to get them all going, even today,

  • we're not completely taken advantage of that.

  • If you make sure you're testing healthcare workers,

  • you don't let the queue to get very long,

  • you're testing contacts and people who test positive,

  • that really is guiding individual behavior

  • and the abroad behavior.

  • And so that in the US, we actually have more

  • of those machines per capita than South Korea

  • or anyone else.

  • So, it should be possible.

  • There isn't a set of criteria though, that stops somebody

  • who's not symptomatic from say, getting in the queue

  • and testing themselves every day

  • just 'cause they're worried, versus that healthcare worker.

  • And so, we do need to bring a sense of prioritization

  • and not let these queues mean, it's taking too long

  • to get the results back.

  • - Are you hopeful that that's going to change over

  • the next couple of weeks?

  • - Yes, well, there's a lot of discussion about it,

  • the notion of okay,

  • does the federal level really jump into that?

  • Which agency, has the right expertise to be able to do that?

  • And so, that I think is likely

  • to improve in the weeks ahead.

  • - And your prediction of hitting a peak

  • in the country in a few weeks,

  • one question I've been curious about it,

  • places like California I know in Seattle and Washington,

  • we've been in some form of stay at home policy,

  • stay in place policy, lockdown policy

  • for about three weeks now, and the quarantine time

  • is typically two weeks, why aren't we seeing

  • the peak cases sooner, why is it taking so much time?

  • - Well, there's the league of, once you do the shutdown,

  • you need to go, at least maybe two infection periods before

  • you'd really expect to see things going down.

  • Also, we weren't doing enough testing, and so,

  • now we're seeing, a higher percentage

  • of what's actually out there.

  • And, but the actual the numbers for California

  • and Washington are very hopeful,

  • the New York numbers continue to go up.

  • We have cities with explosive growth, like Detroit,

  • New Orleans, but the there are early signs,

  • that our, our changes have made a difference.

  • Our lockdown is not as extreme as what they did in China,

  • but it should be enough in the places

  • where there's strong adherence, to get to that peak.

  • And so I'd say, we'll see in some locals

  • in the next few weeks, we'll see that, but for the country,

  • at best, it would be the end of the month.

  • - And what's your sense of why New York

  • has had such a tough situation?

  • They're in a lockdown situation now,

  • is it just the nature of the density of people

  • or is there something else going on there?

  • - Well, the international travel into New York

  • is more than anywhere else, the density is more

  • than anywhere else,and these things, there's some degree

  • of bad luck, when you're dealing with the exponential

  • just a few cases here at the front

  • of the exponential can drive a big separation

  • between place A in place B.

  • And, the governor, there is stepping up

  • and getting the models to help him understand

  • what's going on, enforcing

  • their lockdown in a pretty serious way.

  • So hopefully, the deaths are another lagging indicator,

  • because those are people

  • who were infected 18 to 20 days earlier.

  • But, we really hope that New York peaks

  • because they are, near the breaking point

  • for their medical system.

  • - And you're one of the world's experts

  • and you've worked with many of the world's experts

  • on things like vaccines, obviously, there's a lot

  • of talk about a vaccine,

  • I have a question here from Facebook, Siam Kumar asks,

  • he's calling you Billy, that's a little informal.(laughs)

  • any insight into how long this vaccine will take time

  • to come to market?

  • And actually I'll add a second question to science question,

  • how long, and also how effective will it be?

  • I know the the influenza vaccine

  • is famously not 100% effective,

  • and it depends from year to year.

  • - That is so important, here we only have one strain

  • of the corona virus, so we don't have the same shifting

  • we see in flu, so that makes it an easier target.

  • The foundation works with the greatest funder

  • of vaccine work, so of the a hundred

  • or so efforts out there, there are about four

  • that use a new approach DNA RNA, which they're getting

  • that going, if that works, if it's safe and efficacious,

  • including in old people which is super important here,

  • those will be done, the first, then we have four others

  • that are more conventional techniques, but the risk

  • of them not working is lower.

  • So we were funding, the manufacturing capacity

  • and the safety and efficacy of all eight

  • of these very much at full speed, because government's,

  • in a few months, their money will really start to flow,

  • but they're a little bit slower,

  • and they don't really understand

  • which of these organizations have which capabilities.

  • You saw the Madonna, which is an RNA vaccine,

  • actually go into phase one safety trials last month,

  • so they were the first to get to that milestone.

  • We need to back all the eight leading candidates

  • because some won't be safe, some won't be effective.

  • We're saying to people, it's likely about 18 months

  • because of the scale issues.

  • In the best case yes, things could be done before then,

  • in the worst case, it would take longer.

  • This is super important because until

  • we have an efficacious vaccine, that the entire world

  • has had the benefit of, we will not go completely back

  • to normal that is large gatherings, even if

  • we've kept the cases under control, schools are open,

  • people are going back to their jobs, the large gatherings

  • they risk benefit ratio could is not strong enough,

  • because you could get a super spreading

  • and in a bit of a rebound there.

  • And, you know, so people will be fearful,

  • people won't be behaving like they were, before this.

  • And so, getting that vaccine for the world is critical.

  • And, the world doesn't have a (murmurs) of monitoring,

  • so we're trying to step up and say, Okay, let's fix this

  • for the entire world, individual countries will try get

  • the supplies allocated to them,

  • but only by having 7 billion doses,

  • do you really solve the problem?

  • - And we have this question from Maya

  • which Bergman on Facebook, I think everyone is wondering,

  • about just life until we have a vaccine.

  • And I'll add a little bit to it, which is, this world

  • you're describing, even in a good scenario, we might be able

  • to normalize and places in like the United States

  • and maybe June, but it's not even full normalization,

  • the vaccines is 18 months away, as we go back into the fall,

  • it might pick back up with the seasonality maybe,

  • what are the economic implications,

  • because as you talked about large gatherings,

  • sporting events, concerts, but even,

  • I can imagine people's behavior,

  • restaurants won't normalize for a very long time,

  • how do you see this playing out economically?

  • - Well, this will be the biggest shrinkage of GDP

  • in any of our lifetimes.

  • And there will be businesses like restaurants

  • or tourism, things that will be dramatically affected,

  • and so yes, the opening up, most jobs and school,

  • like in China, should be able to resume,

  • in rich countries, that do the right things by this summer,

  • by them we ought to have an additional type of testing,

  • which is a lateral flow, rapid diagnostic test

  • that is very quick, we ought to have, large numbers

  • of those, so that, broadly, we don't have

  • to triage quite as much, in terms of that testing capacity.

  • There will be types of activities that people will

  • be conservative about, even if the authorities,

  • if the model say that those risks are low, most people will,

  • It'll take a while to get back into the,

  • let's go take a vacation, let's buy a new house, tight mode.

  • So the economy, will be less vibrant in lots of sectors,

  • and so this idea of, how much government help can there be,

  • does that eventually cause huge inflation?

  • We are in unchartered territory, in terms

  • of how we minimize that, the economy will come back,

  • once you get the vaccine out there

  • and people mindset returns, so eventually

  • the economy will be bigger than it was before

  • we got into this, but the shrinkage

  • we're seeing in these few months,

  • is completely unprecedented,

  • and, they're human lives behind that.

  • - And there's a ton of questions that have come through

  • on various social media, from Facebook, Kandy, Westin,

  • Burcombe, Facebook Greg Ram, a lot of people are asking,

  • Kimberly Bizarre, why aren't we having just

  • a really hardcore sheltering place nationwide?

  • And I'll add that question, maybe make it global,

  • how do people balance, I've heard the argument

  • that the economic harm could could cause a lot

  • of deaths too and you could imagine in places like India,

  • I've been monitoring some of the news there of folks who,

  • with the shutdown, they have no livelihood,

  • and they don't know how they're gonna get food,

  • so that's happening even in the US,

  • so how do you weigh those tensions, and what do you see

  • as the dynamics that's keeping us

  • from a really serious shutdown versus some

  • of the more scattershot things that have been put in place?

  • - Well, whenever you do shutdowns, you always wish

  • you did them a bit earlier, and we should do this nationwide

  • because we're not gonna partition

  • the country into separate blocks.

  • So, we need to get going on that.

  • Your point about developing countries

  • is a very important one because, people live in slums

  • where they're close to each other,

  • they have to get food every day.

  • In rich countries we'll be able to maintain food,

  • electricity, sewage, garbage, through, several month period,

  • there will be incredible hardships,

  • but there won't be shortage of food,

  • we shouldn't see civil unrest coming out of this.

  • In the developing countries, you're just not going

  • to reduce social contacts as much, and so the likelihood

  • that you can, really bend that curve and get

  • to a small number of cases, it may not may not

  • be possible in developing countries.

  • And so that I'm very worried about the developing countries,

  • their health capacity is much less, the total number

  • of cases say in Africa, India today is not gigantic,

  • but we are starting to see it grow, and so in the end,

  • it looks likely there'll be more damage both in terms

  • of deaths and economic damage in developing countries

  • than in the rich countries.

  • - And there's a lot of questions that have come in on,

  • hopefully, I (murmurs) dystopian reality

  • that we're finding ourselves in,

  • but what you've articulated is in some ways,

  • is a hopeful scenario where we are able to shut down,

  • we are able to surface in the summer,

  • do you see this flaring back up in the fall?

  • And what do you think just life's gonna

  • be like for the next 18 months?

  • I guess it's just going to be at this weird new normal.

  • - Well, the next two months, hopefully we get

  • that cases down, and have we're so good at that point,

  • a quick turnaround, testing, contact tracing, testing,

  • that we have been, and some ongoing measures like,

  • no big public gathering, spacing, will must be part

  • of that we don't know, we're trying to do the experiments

  • to see how much that reduces transmission.

  • China is using that but, they're also using

  • temperature tests, we'll see how effective that is.

  • We don't know how seasonal this virus is.

  • If it is seasonal, then we'll start to see the benefit

  • of that reduced force of infection

  • in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few months.

  • Sadly that would mean the southern hemisphere would

  • be going into the strong season.

  • Right now the assumption is, that it's not very seasonal,

  • just because that's kind of the worst case assumption.

  • And these measures can help us even if it's not seasonal,

  • if it is seasonal, as you say, yes, our vigilance will have

  • that might be relaxed a tiny bit in the summer,

  • we'll have to go back up in the fall.

  • - And a question from Greg Roman on Facebook,

  • how will humanity change as a result of this?

  • - Well, I never lived through anything that's dramatic.

  • Did the the depression changed humanity,

  • World War Two changed humanity, the 2008 recession

  • to some degree change things, this is much bigger than

  • that 2000 anything, or anything that I've ever experienced,

  • And so it's hard to predict.

  • I mean, simple things like will people

  • take less business trips, will people be afraid

  • of foreign travel, I am concerned will this drive

  • us together within the country and across countries

  • to solve a global problem like this or will it have a say,

  • okay, you know, we just need to hunker down and, and just,

  • isolate at various tribal or national type levels.

  • I see the cooperation of scientists globally,

  • enabled by these Digital Connections is thought phenomenal.

  • We did the genetics on this virus very quickly,

  • that was very informative the testing and understanding

  • and many countries got going very quickly,

  • we are very much in unchartered territory

  • and so the fact that I saw this as a risk doesn't mean

  • that I understand the broad deep facts, many of which are,

  • sadly, scary and potentially negative.

  • - Yeah, and in that kind of goes to this question,

  • it's actually a more personal question from YouTube,

  • Marco Neto saying, hello, Sal and Bill?

  • As a team who is trying to make a difference,

  • what are your tips on maintaining a focused environment,

  • staying productive and prioritize

  • during this hectic and uncertain time?

  • I'd love I think a lot of people would love to hear,

  • how are you coping with the stress of everyone's trying

  • to say socially distance

  • but you're trying to help the world?

  • - Well, I think it's a great time.

  • Mostly digitally to talk to your friends understanding

  • the stress and uncertainty it's causing for them.

  • Thank God the internet, looks to have the resilience,

  • that it's a tool for us to constantly see what's going on,

  • have these collaborations, the foundation meetings

  • are always virtual so I'm learning about the rooms

  • that people have in their house

  • and their cats jumping up on their desk.

  • It is a chance, where you can learn a lot, thank goodness,

  • the online tools, Khan Academy in the lead there,

  • there's amazing materials,

  • how do you develop that discipline?

  • What is your day look like,

  • when you're not able to go out as much?

  • This is there's some tough adjustment,

  • ideally people would get a rhythm of Okay,

  • I'm online doing serious stuff.

  • I'm watching videos to relax, entertain myself,

  • I'm going, these are some friends

  • that I regularly connect up with digitally.

  • I do think in the next couple of weeks,

  • although they'll be immense tension, will fall into

  • a pattern, and there's no reason that learning at least

  • for those who have access, shouldn't go on or even

  • to some degree intensify,

  • the fact that some students don't have access even here

  • in the United States,

  • and some districts are therefore saying,

  • maybe they shouldn't do anything,

  • that is gonna create disparities,

  • that you and I have talked about

  • in the fall, how do we help get students who've lost

  • the entire three months?

  • How do we encourage them and really allow them

  • to regain that material, I mean, losing three months

  • of learning, there's a huge cost about it's hard to put

  • a dollar number on it, but no matter what grade you're in,

  • it's a very huge setback.

  • - Yeah, and one last question, maybe I'll throw it to,

  • there's we talked about a likely scenario,

  • it's I'm almost afraid to think about a worst case scenario,

  • there's possibilities I mean, I am curious, do you think

  • we might have shutdowns again, in the fall type of scenario,

  • but also I'd love to finish up on,

  • Is there a silver lining to this?

  • Is there something, that you're hopeful of,

  • that might come out of it?

  • Yeah, some people say you should never waste a good crisis,

  • how are you thinking about that?

  • - Well, part of the reason our foundation has been funding,

  • these new diagnostic tools and vaccine platforms is that,

  • they're useful, not just for the pandemic threat,

  • but also for diseases like Tuberculosis, HIV, Malaria,

  • that we've got and so, we've been funding these things

  • for over a decade and they do look promising both

  • for coronavirus and those other things.

  • I will say that, the the thing that we didn't act on,

  • five years ago when the danger was clear'

  • this time, governments will act on it,

  • we will get the right tools in place

  • and it's the resources of society

  • are dramatically dramatically less than we spend say

  • on the military to be prepared prepared

  • for that eventuality.

  • Hopefully some families are drawn closer together,

  • the idea of volunteering to help our people,

  • giving philanthropically, we're all in this together,

  • even time of a global basis, and so, this, the rest

  • of your life you will think of this event,

  • and how you responded to it, as a defining thing and,

  • I'm seen many people rise to the occasion

  • to help out others, or to use their skills

  • to try and bring this to an end.

  • - Thank you so much, We could obviously talk for hours,

  • I'm sure many people would love to hear there's,

  • we could tell there's just so much more that

  • we could learn especially about the virus.

  • But thank you so much, bill for joining us,

  • this was a real treat.

  • - Yeah, great to talk to you Sal, thanks.

  • - Thank you, so thank you everyone

  • for joining this livestream, I think

  • we all learned a lot today, I hope that we can have

  • a future live streams where we can, as I've talked about

  • in previous versions, talk about whether it's the pandemic,

  • talking about how do we keep learning,

  • how do we deal with kids at home,

  • who might have trouble staying focused, but regardless,

  • thanks for joining as Bill just mentioned,

  • the silver lining behind all of this is that is,

  • this is a bit of a shared experience for all of humanity,

  • and as stressful as it is, the more

  • that we can stay connected, I think the more

  • it will help all of us get through this.

  • So I will see you on Monday.

- Hi, everyone, welcome

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