字幕列表 影片播放 列印英文字幕 Hi this is Tutor Nick P and this is Noun Phrase 162. The noun phrase today is Black Swan or we sometimes we say a Black Swan event. Okay. Let's take a look at the note here. Often when we hear someone talk about a Black Swan, especially in business or investment news networks, they are usually referring to a Black Swan event. Okay. A Black Swan event is one in which it is very unpredictable that seems to come out of nowhere and has a very severe consequence. A Black Swan could also have the meaning of something rare or very rare. The origin of the phrase dates back to the second century. It comes from the Roman poet named Juvenal who was trying to characterize something being rare. Here is the actual quote "Rara avis in Terris Negro que similia cyngo. " Okay. That was in Latin. This translated to " A rare bird in the lands and very much like a Black Swan.' Ironically, at this time most people believed there was no such thing as a Black Swan because all previous records recorded swans as white. So nobody had ever seen a Black Swan or at least not in Rome anyway. Even up to the 16th century, this quote was used to state that something was impossible. So it was used because everybody believed there was no such thing as a black swan. Okay. Let's continue. Okay. Good. However in the year 1697 , Dutch explorer, William de Vlamingh. I don't know. Documented seeing black swans in Western Australia. So there is actually a species of black swans that do come from Australia. The term then came to mean that something believed to be impossible might be disproven in the future. Yeah. It's kind of an ironic turn. All right. Let's continue. The term Black Swan event came about due to author Nasim Nicholas Taleb in his book "Fooled by Randomness" in 2001. In 2007 he popularized the term more in his book called "The Black Swan. " The same name. Now the term is used to refer to any unpredictable event that has a high impact and is rationalized about later. Okay. Let's continue. All right. Now and we just have a couple of examples here. Example number one. Yeah. Some economists fear that the corona virus could be the black swan that crashes the world's financial system. Yeah . A number of people have predicted a crash of the world's financial system like ever since 2008 . Because the world is filled with way too much debt, but they said that you know it probably wouldn't be something that you kind of see because you know probably central banks and politicians will try to do something to stop that. What we really bring it down is something that's by surprise. Some Black Swan that they don't see coming and it just makes the whole thing collapse. So that's what they've often talked about. So you often hear of the Black Swan used in that way. And let's just give the second example here. Yeah. Nasim Nicholas Taleb you know, the guy that wrote the book gives examples of black swans such as 9/11 or the 9/11 attacks. You know, because that would have been maybe not so predictable. The collapse of the Soviet Union, World War 1 etc. So these are ones where he's saying were you know something could just come up out of nowhere. You don't expect it. It coud have a great impact and that's why they said you know , even one that you forecast ... you can never know if some Black Swan could come out of nowhere and change everything. Okay. Anyway, I hope you got it. I hope it was informative. Thank you for your time. Bye-bye.