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  • GARY GENSLER: So payments part two

  • we're going to chat a little bit about the overview today.

  • Readings, of course as we always do.

  • And then what was yesterday?

  • Does anybody want to tell me what yesterday was?

  • Kelly?

  • AUDIENCE: The 10th anniversary.

  • GARY GENSLER: 10th anniversary of bitcoin.

  • What else was yesterday?

  • It was Halloween.

  • No, it is not my birthday again.

  • Stop that, Tom.

  • So we're going to chat a little bit,

  • we're going to have some fun about happy anniversary

  • or birthday.

  • Would you call it a birthday or anniversary?

  • Anniversary?

  • OK.

  • Birthday, all right.

  • There's no established vocabulary really

  • in this field.

  • So--

  • AUDIENCE: Birthday comes in January.

  • GARY GENSLER: What's that?

  • AUDIENCE: Birthday comes in January.

  • GARY GENSLER: The birthday--

  • Hugo, why's the birthday come in January?

  • AUDIENCE: Birthday marks [INAUDIBLE]..

  • So the music is [INAUDIBLE].

  • GARY GENSLER: Riham?

  • AUDIENCE: Birth means death at a point in time in my mind,

  • so anniversary [INAUDIBLE] is better.

  • GARY GENSLER: You got--

  • did you get that?

  • Birth also connotes death.

  • Did I have that?

  • And so Rahim was saying she would go with anniversary.

  • But we have birth over here.

  • We're going to chat a little bit about that and try--

  • the existential.

  • Then we're going to talk about payment systems and the sort

  • of some of the pain points.

  • And we'll have a lively discussion.

  • What do you think the pain points

  • are in the payment system?

  • I, of course, will have listed some,

  • but your input's the most important.

  • How does blockchain fit into this payment system,

  • and why so far haven't there been any really economy-wide

  • or system-wide adoptions yet?

  • So one might even say what are the pain points of blockchain

  • technology that there has not yet

  • been some of those adoptions?

  • We're going to chat a little bit about some blockchain payment

  • companies, and there are not many.

  • I mean, there are many white papers

  • but there are not many that have actually taken off.

  • And then wrap it up.

  • So the study questions which we're

  • going to sort of dig into rather than right now

  • but just what lessons can be taken.

  • So for my layer two help us.

  • We're going to come back to these when we sort of dig

  • into the paint points.

  • What are the opportunities in cross-border and so forth,

  • and the trade offs of using permissioned

  • versus permissionless systems.

  • So happy anniversary, happy birthday

  • for some, 10 years ago.

  • It's remarkable.

  • Actually, some people say it was November 1st because I think

  • when it actually got on the website it was November

  • 1st in parts of the world.

  • So what do we know about the 10th anniversary?

  • Just some fun statistics.

  • This has all happened in 10 years.

  • So the price is around $6,300 to Bitcoin out

  • of nothing, Satoshi Nakamoto.

  • And it's $110 billion in size.

  • We might not all know each other in 10 years,

  • but write down for yourself on a piece of paper--

  • this is a real exercise I'm asking you to do for yourself.

  • Write down for yourself and put this piece of paper

  • somewhere or put it on your laptop.

  • You can put it down, where do you think the price of Bitcoin

  • will be 10 years from today on the 20th anniversary?

  • And remember this course in 10 years,

  • and look back, and laugh at yourself.

  • Just we won't all know each other.

  • Maybe there'll be a group chat, but--

  • what's that Alit?

  • You don't want to guess where it is-- you

  • don't need to share it with me.

  • No, no, but write down and think about it.

  • Where do you think this will be in 10 years?

  • Is this a hard question?

  • [INAUDIBLE]

  • Alpha, do you want to share your number with the class?

  • AUDIENCE: We're even just debating directionally,

  • it's really going to be higher or lower.

  • GARY GENSLER: Well, how many people

  • think it'll be lower in 10 years?

  • OK, I'd say it's about 30%, 35%.

  • How many higher?

  • Yeah, that's 60%, 65%.

  • Alin, you-- you did two Alin split, right?

  • AUDIENCE: Think it's going to be 0.

  • GARY GENSLER: I think that would be lower.

  • [LAUGHTER]

  • AUDIENCE: It is, because in 10 years

  • the system might change so dramatically

  • it might be unfair to even call it bitcoin.

  • GARY GENSLER: Fair enough.

  • It might have evolved into something else.

  • Back here please.

  • AUDIENCE: I just want to comment.

  • Isn't the real question market cap,

  • because that's what people are actually using the currency

  • for?

  • Because the question of what's the price going to be

  • presupposes a set number of shares of coins or tokens.

  • So the way that people are mining coins in the future also

  • depends on the price.

  • GARY GENSLER: So I think you raise a really good question.

  • If you're writing something down you

  • could write down the market cap rather than the price.

  • You could say--

  • I mean, in the Leeds case you would still say 0 for both,

  • but you might say that-- of course.

  • Because it depends on how many coins

  • there are, how many shares there are.

  • Does anybody want to take the other side from this--

  • the other Alin?

  • AUDIENCE: I think it'll have zeros--

  • it'll have zeros in the price.

  • GARY GENSLER: It will have zeros in the price.

  • Hugo?

  • AUDIENCE: Well, I just want to respond to the other comment.

  • Do you know exactly how many bitcoin there will

  • be in about 10 years from now?

  • GARY GENSLER: Do we actually know how many bitcoin there

  • will be in 10 years?

  • AUDIENCE: Yes.

  • GARY GENSLER: Hugo says you do because it's

  • written in the code.

  • Remind me your first name?

  • Isaac.

  • AUDIENCE: So I think one is mining.

  • I know that some folks may have a better technical background

  • on mining and the way you dedicate resources

  • based on price.

  • But I'm seeing a shake-up ahead, so maybe not.

  • The other piece of it, I think, is just

  • thinking about the flow.

  • Thinking about the bitcoin that's actually

  • being traded or transacted.

  • If there's a restricted market cap,

  • it's similar to looking at big cap stocks trading in China.

  • You know, you don't actually get a real price.

  • GARY GENSLER: While I agree with those,

  • there's one other reason we might not know the--

  • AUDIENCE: People could stop mining.

  • GARY GENSLER: People could stop mining.

  • AUDIENCE: In five years if it's zero.

  • GARY GENSLER: Oh, that's if it really just dwindles out.

  • Nobody wants to expand.

  • But what's one other reason why it could

  • be a different number that--

  • Shimon?

  • AUDIENCE: Fork.

  • GARY GENSLER: A fork.

  • There could be a consensus amongst 51% of the parties

  • on this node to change the what I'll call monetary policy.

  • We've seen that twice in Ethereum.

  • Ethereum was having a certain mining or block reward.

  • They cut it in half once-- or they cut it from 5 to 3,

  • and I think now they're going from 3 to 2.

  • It was not in the original Ethereum.

  • So there could be a consensus.

  • It's not written about a lot, but it

  • could be either what's called a fork

  • or it could be so almost unanimous that everybody

  • went for a change in the monetary policy.

  • All right, so that's just a little bit of fun.

  • Some other quick numbers and facts.

  • There's 17.3 million coins right now.

  • So 17 million coins have been mined so far,

  • 550,000 blocks roughly.

  • 189 gigs.

  • Transactions per day, quarter of a million transactions.

  • And then if I've got my decimals right,

  • the hash rate is 10 to the 18th times 50.

  • That's seven trillion times harder

  • than when it was in 2009.

  • There's seven trillion more computational power in Bitcoin

  • now than there was nine or 10 years ago.

  • It takes about 1/3 of 1% of the world's electricity,

  • and there were some nice comments overnight

  • in the discussion for this class about

  • whether that's a good thing or not.

  • And maybe it's not a good thing.

  • So that's Bitcoin anniversary.

  • A couple other things, unique addresses.

  • There's a little bit over 500,000 unique addresses--

  • Bitcoin addresses.

  • So if there's tens of millions of people

  • that have Bitcoin and only half a million Bitcoin addresses,

  • what does it mean about the probably 20 or 30 million

  • people that believe they own Bitcoin but don't

  • have a Bitcoin address?

  • Where do they own it?

  • James?

  • AUDIENCE: In an exchange?

  • GARY GENSLER: Yeah, on an exchange.

  • Or in some custodial--

  • in essence relying on somebody else

  • if there's a half a million unique addresses,

  • but it's thought there's 20 to 30 million accounts.

  • 10,000 nodes.

  • And bitnodes is a website where you

  • can see where the nodes are.

  • And it's concentration of where the actual nodes are.

  • So pretty spread around.

  • There's not any alpha in Ethiopia yet.

  • In fact, I don't see--

  • what's that?

  • Do you see two in Kenya?

  • AUDIENCE: Yeah, there's two little dots.

  • GARY GENSLER: Anybody from Greenland?

  • No.

  • And of course, it's spurred this whole thing--

  • we've seen this map before, but initial coin offerings.

  • $28 billion roughly raised.

  • Again, we don't know if the numbers are right

  • but this is what this 10 year anniversary or 10

  • years since it all started.

  • This means there's a lot of capital

  • chasing this field right now.

  • So anybody want to write down whether they

  • think ICOs are still going to be around in 10 years?

  • How many people think initial coin offerings will be around?

  • About half.

  • And so the other-- oh, I know where Alin is,

  • but where are the rest of you?

  • I don't actually know.

  • I think they're going to slow down.

  • I think in 2019 and 2020 they'll slow down

  • because so many will have failed,

  • the market will sort of adjust and say,

  • well, we're not going to invest in these unless there is

  • a much better business model.

  • And so it's spurred, this is just a bucket of other coins.

  • There's 1,600 odd coins, probably 1,500 plus of them