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  • I have a friend named Sammy who back in the early 2000s wrote some code for his MySpace

  • page.

  • And what the code did was anybody who visited his page would have his picture and a tag

  • line that said, “Sammy is my hero,” copied over to their homepage.

  • And that was a bit of fun for a while, but Sammy wanted more.

  • And so he tweaked his code so that no only the picture and the tag line were copied over,

  • but also the code itself.

  • And now it exploded.

  • In just nine hours he had reached 480 accounts.

  • In 13 hours he was up to 8800.

  • And in just over 18 hours he had hit a million accounts, which was a full 1/35th of all the

  • accounts on MySpace at the time.

  • So in a panic, he tried to delete his page.

  • And when he was successful he actually took down the whole of MySpace with it.

  • He was arrested and convicted of computer hacking and ordered not to touch a computer

  • for the next three years.

  • But I think what this story really tells us is just how connected we all are.

  • Imagine you have 44 friends and each one of those friends has 44 friends who are not also

  • your friends.

  • And each of them has an additional 44 friends, each of whom has 44 friends who again has

  • 44 friends and they have 44 more.

  • Then in a chain of just six steps you would be connected to 44 to the sixth or 7.26 billion

  • people, more than are alive on earth today.

  • And we have contemplated how closely connected we area since long before MySpace even existed.

  • Back in 1929 a Hungarian author and poet named Frigyes Karinthy wrote a short story called

  • Chains.

  • And in it, one of the characters challengers the others to find another person on earth

  • that he cannot connect himself to through fewer than five intermediaries.

  • This is the origin of six degrees of separation.

  • If the theory is correct, it means that you would be connected to the Queen or Tom Cruise

  • in just six steps.

  • But they may be the easy ones.

  • What about this shop owner or the Mongolian sheep herder?

  • What the theory really means is that any two people picked at random from anywhere on the

  • earth would be connected by just six steps.

  • The idea remained just fiction until in the 1960s a Harvard psychologist, Stanley Milgram,

  • attempted to test it.

  • He called it the small world experiment after that phenomenon where you are at a party,

  • you meet a stranger and you find out that you have a friend in common and you remark:

  • Oh, it is such a small world.

  • What he did was he sent out 300 packages to people both in Boston and in Nebraska.

  • Now what he wanted those people to do was try to send their package to a target person

  • in Boston, but they weren’t allowed to send it directly to him.

  • They had to send it to someone they knew on a first name basis who they thought had a

  • better chance of knowing the target and they could forward it on in the same way.

  • Now, as you might expect, most of the packages never made it, but 64 did and the average

  • pathway was 5.2.

  • So now six degrees of separation had experimental confirmation.

  • Or did it?

  • If you look more closely at Milgram’s sample, you will find that of the 300 people, 100

  • were located in Boston, the actual city where the target lived.

  • Another 100 were stockbrokers, which was the same profession as the target.

  • So only 100 people lived in a different state and had a different job.

  • And of them only 18 of their packages made it to the target.

  • So we are talking about a sample size of 18 is all the evidence there was for six degrees

  • of separation.

  • So experimental evidence was tough to come by.

  • But a decade earlier, a mathematician named Paul Erdos had tried to work out the theoretical

  • properties of networks like these.

  • But he didn’t have any information on the structure of real social networks, so he decided

  • to work on networks where the connections between nodes were all completely random.

  • And we can actually simulate a network like this using buttons and thread where we just

  • connect up the buttons at random.

  • What Erdos found is that when the number of links per node is small, the network is fragmented.

  • Pick up any button and few others will come with it.

  • But once you exceed an average of one connection per node, the behavior the network changes

  • dramatically.

  • They almost all link up forming a giant cluster.

  • Now if you pick up any button almost all of the rest will come with it.

  • This change happens rapidly and it resembles a phase transition in physics.

  • Now you could call this a small world network, since the path between any two buttons is

  • short.

  • The thing about random networks is that they are naturally small world networks, because

  • you are just as likely to be connected to someone here in Manila as you are to someone

  • in your own town.

  • But obviously a random network doesn't represent real life very well.

  • So what do real world networks look like?

  • Well, for that, we need to go to the empirical data.

  • In 1994 a couple of college kids invented a game called six degrees of Kevin Bacon in

  • which you try to connect any actor to Kevin Bacon through just six steps through his costars.

  • Now a couple of sociology researchers got access to their database of a quarter million

  • actors and they analyzed the network and what they found was that it was a small world network,

  • meaning between any two actors there were only a very small number of steps.

  • And that is very similar to a random network.

  • But unlike a random network, the actor network also showed a high degree of clustering, that

  • is, they often worked together in small groups.

  • So how do you get both this grouping behavior, a high degree of clustering, and the short

  • number of steps between any two actors?

  • Well, to figure this out they looked at two different extremes.

  • Imagine a circle of nodes.

  • Now if you connect them at random you get the same outcome as Erdos, short paths between

  • any two nodes, but little clustering.

  • Now consider connecting up the nodes only with their nearest two neighbors on each side.

  • Now clustering is high, but path lengths are long for two nodes picked at random.

  • But what if you take this set up and rewire just a small number of connections randomly.

  • What you find is that the path length drops rapidly, but clustering still remains high.

  • So the key to modeling real social networks is to have a lot of clustering behaviorthat

  • is, your friends are also friends with each otherbut also to have a few random acquaintances.

  • And the importance of those acquaintances can’t be overstated.

  • There was a researcher named Granovetter in the 1970s who published a paper calledThe

  • Strength of Weak Ties,” in which he points out: You are much more likely to get a job

  • through those random acquaintances than through your close friends.

  • And if you think about it, that makes sense, because you and your close friends all know

  • the same people and have the same information.

  • It is through the random acquaintances that you can get connections with people very far

  • from your social circles.

  • So you can find new jobs, new places to live and you can be connected to the outside world.

  • So, in fact, it is those random acquaintances that make possible six degrees of separation.

  • So when I want to...

  • >> I am told the degrees have dropped in recent years.

  • >> Really

  • >> ...to like four degrees.

  • >> Tell me about that.

  • How do we know this?

  • >> I don’t know how they measure it, but I have tested it and I think it actually has

  • dropped based on how many people have friended one another on Facebook.

  • The friendship circle has grown, not that they are bosom buddies, but they are people

  • you have access to.

  • That is the point.

  • >> right.

  • >> And it is... do you know this person who then knows that so that I have access to these

  • other people?

  • So I am told that it has dropped.

  • As much as the six degrees, we are down to four, at most five.

  • >> I think Neil DeGrasse Tyson might be right.

  • In 2011 Facebook analyzed their data and they found that 92 percent of their users were

  • connected through just five steps.

  • And that number is decreasing over time.

  • The concept of six degrees of separation has fascinated people for nearly a century.

  • And I think that is not only because of how counter intuitive it is, but also how comforting

  • it is to know how closely we are all linked, not in some kind of abstract, ill defined

  • way, but through hard scientific data.

  • Just six handshakes will connect you to anyone else on the planet.

  • Now I have a challenge for you.

  • In the spirit of six degrees of separation I want to try an experiment.

  • I want you to try to get an email to me.

  • But you can’t send it directly to me unless you know me.

  • So assuming you don’t, I want you to send it to a friend of yours, someone you know

  • on a first name basis who you think has a better chance of getting that email to me.

  • If your email eventually gets to me through a chain of people, I will send you a postcard

  • in the mail and I will tally up if we were able to get that done in six links or not.

  • So let’s try to do it and see if we can connect.

  • The instructions are in the description.

  • This episode of Veritasium was inspired by the Fine Brothers, Ben and Rafi Fine who are

  • friends of mine.

  • So we are connected through just one degree of separation.

  • Now they have a brand new TV series launching on TruTV.

  • It is called The Six Degrees of Everything and it is a fast paced comedic show that tries

  • to show us how six things that we don’t think are connected actually are.

  • It involves sketch comedy and songs and reality TV.

  • I am really looking forward to seeing how they are going to do this.

  • So you can check it out Tuesdays at 9:30 or 8:30 central on TruTv.

  • I am so looking forward to it.

  • And thank you to the Fine Brothers for sponsoring this episode so I could check out the science

  • of networks.

I have a friend named Sammy who back in the early 2000s wrote some code for his MySpace

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六度分離的科學 (The Science of Six Degrees of Separation)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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