A few years ago

數年前

in Minneapolis an angry dad stormed into the retail store

在明尼亞波利市，一位盛怒的父親衝進Target量販店

Target. His daughter, a high schooler,

他女兒，仍在高中就讀

had been receiving coupons in the mail from the store for things like cribs

卻常常收到信件寄來一些搖籃和尿布的優惠卷

and diapers. Was Target encouraging his daughter,

難道Target是在慫恿她女兒

a minor, to go out and get pregnant? well

未成年的女兒，去懷孕生子嗎? 呃，

Well, the store apologized but a few days later they heard back from the father. He

業者是有道歉，但是幾天之後，該名父親又做出了回應

told them

他告訴他們

"a few things have been going on in my household

「我家裡的確發生一些我尚未察覺到的事情」

I was unaware of. My daughter is due

我的女兒八月就要生了

in August. I owe you an apology." You see,

我對你們表示歉意」 由此我們可見

Target's internal algorithms have been tracking

Target內部的數據系統其實正追蹤

and processing his daughter's purchases and recently

也處理他女兒近期的購買紀錄

she'd started buying different items than usual.

她開始購買和平常不一樣的商品

Things like certain vitamin supplements and scent-free soaps and lotions.

像是維他命補品和無嗅肥皂和乳液等等

Behaviors the system flagged as evidence

這些行為被該系統標為

she could be pregnant, thus they her sent the coupons.

她可能懷孕了，所以就寄送對應的優惠券給她

And they were right. Without being told,

而且他們說對了。不需要有人告知，

Target knew that a girl was pregnant

Target就知道該名女孩懷孕了

before her own father.

比她爸還早知道

We are tracked and followed digitally now more than

現在我們被數位化系統監控得

ever before. We live in a world of 24/7 CCTV,

比以往都還要強烈。 我們住在一個有24小時閉路電視、

browser cookies, trackable debit cards and cell phones and GPS,

瀏覽器cookie、可追蹤的信用卡、手機、GPS、

fingerprinting and DNA analysis. But despite

指紋和DNA分析的世界裡。不過，

all of that, every single year

即便如此，每一年

in the United States alone more than 2,000 people

獨獨在美國國內，就有超過2000人

disappear and are never found again

消失，而且從未再被找到

dead or alive.

生死未卜。

Where do missing people go? How did they disappear?

這些失蹤的人都去哪兒了？ 他們是怎麼消失的呢？

What if you disappeared and

如果你消失了呢？還有

how do you know you haven't already

你怎麼知道你還沒消失呢？

disappeared? In many cases, missing persons are the victims

許多案例中，失蹤的人往往是

of unsolved or unknown crimes.

未解懸案的受害者

They may have suffered accidents or taken their own lives

他們可能是遭遇了意外，或是自盡

and their bodies were never found. Or they may be perfectly fine and have simply

而他們的屍體從未被找到過。 或是他們根本沒事，只是

escaped their old life, old friends and family, old debt and obligations to start

逃離他們以往的人生，以往的朋友和家人，以往積欠的債務，而重新

a new life

很可能是以某個其他人的身分

somewhere else, possibly as someone else.

在某處展開展開新生活。

How long would it take for people to notice

人們需要花多少時間才發現

if you disappeared? Well, think about it. I mean,

你消失了呢？ 那麼考慮一下吧。我的意思是，

it sort of depends on who you are, how you live

這取決於你是誰，你是如何生活的

and how you disappeared. In most jurisdictions after about five to seven

以及你如何消失。 在大約五到七年後的大部分地區

years,

如果沒有人有你的消息的話，

if no one has heard anything from you at all,

你將被宣布假定死亡

you can be declared dead in absentia.

這是發生在法國天文學家Guillaume Le Gentil上的事

This is what happened to French astronomer

在十八世紀，數百人到處旅行

Guillaume Le Gentil. In the 18th century hundreds of people traveled far and wide

為了觀察不同地點的金星的過境

to observe the transit of Venus from different locations

在地球上。他們知道，通過比較他們的 測量，他們可以比以往

on earth. They knew that by comparing their measurements they could calculate

更精確得計算太陽到底有多遠

more accurately than ever before just how far away

所以，Le Gentil

the Sun was. So, Le Gentil

於1760年離開巴黎去印度的Pondicherry

left Paris in 1760 for Pondicherry

但是在一場風暴把他吹走之後

in India. But after a storm blew him off course

英國人佔領了Pondicherry，他被迫在(金星過境的那天)

and the British occupied Pondicherry, he was forced to spend the day

待在海上的一艘船上，其中搖晃

of the transit on a boat at sea, which rocked

的程度太大以至於測量無法被記錄。現在，下一個

too much for accurate measurements to be taken. Now, the next

(金星)過境將在8年後發生。然而在那之後，下下一個

transit would happen in 8 years. But after that, the next

過境在100年後才會發生。

next transit wouldn't happen for another 100 years.

所以，他留在印度，沒有回到巴黎。 他反而建立了一個天文台

So, he stuck around. He didn't return to Paris. Instead, he built an observatory

並等待。當他在離開巴黎11年後

and waited. When he finally returned

他終於回到了巴黎 他發現他已被宣佈死亡了

to Paris, 11 years after leaving, he found that he had been declared

而他的妻子再婚了

dead. His wife had remarried,

他的家人已經掠奪了 他在皇家科學院的財物和他的位置

his family had plundered his belongings and his position

也把他們交給別人了。

at the Royal Academy of Sciences had been given to someone else.

他從來沒有看到金星的過境，

He never did see the transit of Venus,

順便一提，發生的那一天，他頭上的天空

by the way. On the day that it happened, the sky above him

灰濛濛的

was overcast.

我們知道地球上的

We know the human population

人口

of Earth.

有點啦

Kind of.

人口數字和計數器只是估計。

Population figures and counters are only estimations.

個體最好由在現實生活中的人

Individuals are best accounted for by real people

解釋 但是，這並不總是

in their real lives. But that doesn't always

發生。

happen.

今年早些時後Janet Veal， 在她位於Ringwood, Hampshire的公寓裡過世

Earlier this year Janet Veal passed away in her apartment

她的身體的大部分

in Ringwood, Hampshire. Large portions of her body

在她被發現的幾周前被她的寵物貓吃掉了

were eaten by her pet cats before she was discovered

還有，七年前

weeks later. And seven years ago

Joyce Carol Vincent 在Wood Green被發現死在她的沙發上，

Joyce Carol Vincent was found dead on her sofa,

或者是她的骨架被找到

in Wood Green; or at least her skeleton

她已經過世至少三年了

was found. She'd been dead for at least three

而沒有人探聽過她。

years and no one ever checked on her.

她的電視還開著

Her television was still on.

在Timothy McVeigh 炸了俄克拉何馬城的一個聯邦大廈

And four days after Timothy McVeigh bombed

且 斷送了168條生命的四天之後

a federal building in Oklahoma City, taking

一條切斷的

168 lives, a severed

左腳在瓦礫中被發現。

left leg was found in the rubble.

沒有人知道它屬於誰。 所有其他受害者的腿都已經被

No one knew who it belonged to. The legs of all the other victims had been

檢查過了

accounted for

沒有人報告失踪。

and no one else had been reported missing.

DNA分析顯示這條腿 屬於Lakesha Levy，

DNA analysis showed that the leg belonged to a Lakesha Levy,

但她已經和自己的雙腿被埋葬了。

but she had already been buried with both her legs.

所以，他們挖出了她的屍體。

So, they dug up her corpse.

原來，她是和別人的左腳一起被埋葬了

She'd been buried with someone else's left

腿被交換了， 但由於她的身體已經被防腐，

leg. The legs were swapped, but because her body had been embalmed,

未知腿中的DNA不能被分析。

DNA in the unknown leg could not be analyzed.

至今沒有人知道那腿

To this day no one knows who that leg

屬於誰。第169位

belongs to. The 169th

受害者仍然是一個謎。

victim remains a mystery.

一些陰謀論者認為 腿可能屬於

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the leg may have belonged

真正的轟炸者， 在蒂莫西麥克維旁邊的人，

to be actual bomber, someone besides Timothy McVeigh,

他足夠接近爆炸 而被完全湮滅，

who was close enough to the explosion to be obliterated completely,

除了一條腿。 無論如何，

except for one leg. Regardless,

它顯示的是，一個人消失是可能的

what it does show is that it is possible for a person to disappear

沒有人問他們去了哪裡。

without anyone ever asking where they went.

有時候有人被宣告死亡或失踪

Sometimes people are reported dead or missing

即便他們不是。 過早的訃告

even when they aren't. Premature obituaries

是常見的。 許多活著的人已經有一個存檔。

are common. Many living people already have one on file.

如果一個名人死亡， 媒體，電視，報紙，雜誌等等

If a famous person dies, the media, television, newspapers, magazines, well

嗯...他們需要完整的報導，越快越好。 所以他們

they need a full story as soon as possible. So, they

提前準備、鎖定， 只留下死亡的日期和情況

prepare them ahead of time, locked away, leaving only the dates and circumstances

等待被補上

of the death to be filled in.

這有些道理，但是當報導在人死之前被洩漏時

Makes sense, but it's awkward

這將會很尷尬。 在2003年

when they leak before the person's dead. In 2003

美國CNN網站 意外地發佈，接下來可能去世的人的訃告草稿

CNN's website accidentally carried draft obituaries for living people that could

這很尷尬，但是

be

對於那些讀了自己訃告的人，這是一個契機

accessed. It's embarrassing, but

讓我們去完成我們從沒機會做的事情

for the person reading their own obituary, it's a chance to do something

想想自己在走後會如何被記得

that most of us never get a chance to do.

Alfred Nobel 發明了炸藥。

See how you will be remembered after you're gone.

他因製造及賣出致命武器(大砲和軍備)賺了一大筆

Alfred Nobel invented dynamite.

在1888年

He made a fortune manufacturing and selling

他的哥哥Ludvig去世了，但許多報社 弄錯了 以為是Alfred Nobel

deadly weapons - cannons and armaments. In 1888

死了

his brother Ludvig died but many newspapers mistakenly thought that he

並發表了Alfred的訃告

had died

他們不恭維。

and published obituaries for Alfred

一篇法國的報導宣布 “(製造)死亡的商人

Nobel. They weren't very flattering.

死了。“ Alfred Nobel讀了這些

One French paper declared "The merchant of death

訃告，他對於自己的傳奇可能的走向感到羞愧

is dead." Nobel read these

當他真的去世時，他將他的財產

obituaries and was so ashamed by what his legacy apparently

幾乎用於宣揚人性的理想上

was going to be. When he did die, he left almost

他創立了諾貝爾獎。 而Marcus Garvey

all of his money to the cause of celebrating humanity.

就沒這麼幸運了。 故事是在他中風後發生的，

He created The Nobel Prize. Marcus Garvey

報紙登出了那些

wasn't so lucky. The story goes that after suffering

批評他的過早的訃告。 報章說道 他死而貧窮、

a stroke newspapers ran premature obituaries that

孤獨且不受歡迎。 因對於他將被記得的如此負面，

were critical of him, saying, he died broke,

他飽受震驚，在閱讀自己訃告時，Garvey 再度中風

alone and unpopular. Shocked by how negatively he was being remembered

然後去世了。 在2006年4月時

Garvey suffered another stroke while reading his own obituary

五位Taylor大學的學生，死於一場悲壯的車禍

and died. In April of 2006

有一名學生倖存下來，但處於昏迷狀態。

five Taylor University students died in a tragic car accident.

她被認為是Laura van Ryn。

Another student survived, but was in a coma.

她的朋友Whitney Cerak，並不像她一樣幸運。

She was identified as Laura van Ryn.

她被宣布死亡。 有一千人參加了她的葬禮

Her friend Whitney Cerak wasn't as lucky. She was pronounced

但在接下來的幾天，Laura

dead. A thousand people attended her funeral

恢復了意識，她開始能夠說話， 當問到她的名字時，

but over the next few days as Laura

Laura說我的名字是Whitney。 這兩個女生

recovered, she began speaking and when asked her name,

看起來相似。 事實上，Laura

Laura said my name is Whitney. The girls

才是他們埋葬的那位。 後來，Whitney

looked similar. It turned out Laura

於之前舉行她葬禮的教堂結婚

was the one they had buried. Later, Whitney

如果你已經失踪了怎麼辦？

was married in the very same church that years before

而且不知道呢？ 醫院意外調換嬰兒的事件

had held her funeral. What if you are already missing

發生頻率是未知的

and just don't know it? It's not known how often hospitals

現代醫院的政策使它 不太可能發生，但我們

accidentally switch babies at birth.

不會為了好玩，而全都去做產婦以及

Modern hospital policies make it unlikely to happen, but because we don't

親子鑑定， 所以沒有太多關於掉包事件的數據

all go out and get maternity

但它確實會發生。 這通常是由於DNA測試發現的

and paternity tests for fun, there isn't a lot of data

用於解決兒童撫養爭議。

on the phenomenon. But it does happen. It's often discovered because of DNA tests

或者，就這名在加那利群島的35歲女性的情況來說

administered to resolve child support disputes.

因為2001年的該商店員工，在妳購物時，誤認妳為

Or, in the case of the 35-year-old woman, in the Canary Islands,

為她最好的朋友 - 因為妳看起來完全一樣

it's because in 2001 an employee at a store you're shopping at mistakes you

她一樣，因為她(店員的好友)是

for her best friend - because you look exactly

妳已經失散的雙胞胎，自妳誕生起與你分開

like her, because she is

然而，和妳一起長大的姐姐，

your long-lost twin, separated from you

原本以為她自己是妳的雙胞胎，事實上

since birth. And the sister you grew up with,

是一位陌生人。 如果你失蹤了

thinking was your twin, turns out to be a biological

但當局卻不知道 該怎麼辦？

stranger. What if you are missing

就像是未宣報的人口

but the authorities don't know?

失踪。 非法的人民滯留、

Such is the life of the unreported

與家人和朋友疏遠的人 和 沒有

missing. People in a country illegally,

被建立失蹤報告檔案的人，

people estranged from their family and friends with no

或是無家可歸的母親的孩子。 這些人不只是

missing person report ever being filed,

失踪，他們是所謂的

children of homeless mothers. These people aren't just

未呈報的失蹤

missing, they are what is known as

聯邦調查局的國家犯罪 信息數據庫紀載了

missing missing.

大約有5萬失踪兒童報告，

The FBI's National Crime Information Database contains

但 希望前哨隊 報導 有一百多萬

approximately 50,000 reported missing children,

美國的兒童在沒有人知道的清況下

but Outpost For Hope reports that there are more than a million

失去音訊了。 在自己的意願下失蹤

children in America who are missing, without anyone

是不違法的

knowing they're missing. It is not against the law

你可能有債務要支付或合同要兌現，

to go missing under your own volition.

但如果你是一個成年人，消失的行為

You might have debts to pay or contracts to honor,

本身並不是非法的。 你有權利

but if you are an adult, the act of disappearing

去失踪。 但相信沒有人會

is not illegal in and of itself. You have the right

想你？這是荒謬和不科學的。 而統計學

to go missing. But believing that no one would

另有其他意味。 David Wong

miss you? That is ridiculous and unscientific. Statistics

寫了我讀過的最強大的文章之一。

would suggest otherwise. David Wong

我們被許多資訊包覆著

wrote one of the most powerful articles I've ever read.

而甚至有一個詞叫 - infobesity(資訊肥胖症)。

There is a lot of information

這需要一輩子的時間

out there. There's even a word for it - infobesity.

甚至是體驗到其中一些部分。 自己知道的事情 其實不比其他人多或少

It takes a lifetime to even

這是可想而知的。 但每年

experience some of it. It's easy to think that everyone

超過一億的新生兒 出生，而他們之中 無一人

knows everything that you know. But every year

天生

more than 100 million new people are born and not a single one of them is

就知道他們是由原子組成的 或者那個黑洞

born

是令人驚奇的。 有人需要在那裡

knowing that they are made out of atoms or that black holes

告訴他們，向他們展示。

are awesome. Someone needs to be there

你每天聽到多少笑話，

to tell them, to show them.

或者每週？ 你每年聽到了多少笑話?

How many jokes do you hear every day,

這裡有有趣的想法。

every week? How many jokes do you hear

通過考慮平均預期壽命

every year? Here's a fun thought.

和一個人每年通常會聽到的笑話數目

By considering average life expectancy

David Wong假定了一個想法

and the typical number of jokes a person hears in a year,

粗遭在其近似，但準確在其本質。

David Wong posited a thought, rough

如果你不滿38歲

in its approximation, but sharp in its essence.

可能的是，那個會是你聽過最好笑的笑話

If you are under the age of 38

的笑話，你還沒有聽說過。

odds are the funniest joke

而且，如果你超過了38歲，

you will ever hear is a joke you haven't even heard yet.

可能，你已經知道的一個笑話，對於你認識的人

And, if you are over the age of 38,

甚至是你不認識的人來說

odds are you already know a joke that to more people than you could ever

或許是他們聽過最有趣的笑話

possibly meet

所以，無論你在哪裡，我們都很高興你在那裡。

might be the funniest joke they will ever hear.

和往常一樣，

So, wherever you are, we're glad you there.

感謝收看。

And as always,

thanks for watching.