Name: 隨機性是隨機的 - Numberphile (Randomness is Random - Numberphile)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T10:15:31.000Z
Duration: 13 min 31 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

情態副詞

I would actually see if I can test your abilities of randomness.

If you could do me something, do me a favor.

So, you know, flipping a coin, heads or tails.

So I want you to be a coin flipper in your mind.

And I want you to flip a coin in your mind randomly 20 times and write down the result here, but don't show me.

Okay, Now, I don't want to see, but what's gonna happen is I'm gonna try and make money off your list.

So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna give you a bunch of pennies, and you don't have to pay me back.

So I'm just gonna put a penny down one penny riding on this.

Okay, So my first prediction is that you flipped ahead.

So I'm gonna take one of your coins from your stack.

Next, I'm going to predict tails, and I'm going to bet $20 that on, right?

Okay, so I'm just gonna put that aside, All right?

I got a better mother, but I'm gonna predict tails.

Okay, so you get to keep that tails, it's ahead.

So, like another coin from your heads, it is ahead.

Okay, I'm gonna predict a tale is a detail tail.

You get that coin, I'm gonna predict another head.

You shouldn't listen to the way I said this.

You have been really bad at creating random sequences.

As I can see here, the longest run that you've had is right.

At the beginning, it was three heads, and then you've pretty much alternated between 1000 heads.

The most run that you've had of tails or heads is to arrive, and you showed a pattern there.

This demonstrates something called the Gambler's Fallacy.

It says that what's happened before has an impact of what will happen next.

If we were using a coin every time you flip it, there's an equal probability that even we get ahead or a tail.

Now, lot of people think Well, how does that work?

Surely it's not very likely to have, you know, five heads and a rose six heads in a row.

And lumpiness means that you do get streaks, which is part of the gamblers.

Lexicon, you know, is like we have a gambling strick.

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隨機性是隨機的 - Numberphile (Randomness is Random - Numberphile)

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demonstrate

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