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Today ,more than half of all people in the world
今日,全球有超過一半以上的人口
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live in an urban area.
居住在都市區域
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By mid-century, this will increase to 70%.
在2050年前這個數字會增加到七成
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But as recently as 100 years ago,
然而距今約一百年前
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only two out of ten people lived in a city,
每十人中,只有兩人住在都市中
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and before that, it was even less.
在那之前甚至更少
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How have we reached
究竟我們是怎麼達到
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such a high degree of urbanization,
如此高程度的都市化
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and what does it mean for our future?
而這對我們的未來又意味著什麼呢?
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In the earliest days of human history,
根據早期人類歷史記載
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humans were hunter-gatherers,
人們是狩獵採集者
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often moving from place to place
必須經常四處遷徙
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in search of food.
以便尋找食物
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But about 10,000 years ago,
但約莫一萬年前
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our ancestors began to learn the secrets
我們的祖先 開始發現一些生存的秘辛
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of selective breeding
像是選擇性育種
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and early agricultural techniques.
以及早期的農業技術
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For the first time,
有史以來第一次
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people could raise food
人類可以自己栽種食物
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rather than search for it,
而不是透過採集獲得
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and this led to the development
這也帶來了一個突破性的發展
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of semi-permanent villages
那就是半定居式村莊
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for the first time in history.
這個現象是史無前例的
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"Why only semi-permanent?" you might ask.
你可能會問:為什麼只有半定居呢?
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Well, at first, the villages still had to relocate
首先,這些村莊每隔數年
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every few years
就要遷徙一次
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as the soil became depleted.
是因為地力耗盡的緣故
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It was only with the advent of techniques
直到新技術出現 才有了轉機
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like irrigation and soil tilling
約莫五千年前
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about 5,000 years ago
人們學會灌溉和翻土耕地
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that people could rely on a steady
這使人們得以仰賴一個穩定
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and long-term supply of food,
而且長期的食物供應
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making permanent settlements possible.
使永久定居成為可能
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And with the food surpluses
也因為這些新技術
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that these techniques produced,
帶來的多餘的食物
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it was no longer necessary for everyone to farm.
不再需要人人當農夫
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This allowed the development
這又促進了
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of other specialized trades,
其他專門行業的發展
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and, by extension, cities.
也就是說,城市誕生了
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With cities now producing surplus food,
有了城市提供豐足的食物,
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as well as tools,
各種工具,
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crafts,
專精技藝,
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and other goods,
以及其他商品,
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there was now the possibility of commerce
貿易得以進行
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and interaction over longer distances.
也開始有了跨國界的互動
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And as trade flourished,
也因貿易日漸興盛
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so did technologies that facilitated it,
各式交通工具 和建設的發展也跟著日新月異
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like carts,
像是牛車,
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ships,
船隻,
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roads,
道路,
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and ports.
以及港口
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Of course, these things required even more labor
當然,這些東西需要更多人力
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to build and maintain,
來建造並維護
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so more people were drawn
所以越來越多人
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from the countryside to the cities
從鄉村遷移到城市
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as more jobs and opportunities
因為城市提供了
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became available.
更多工作和機會
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If you think modern cities are overcrowded,
如果你認為 許多現代城市已經人口爆炸
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you may be surprised to learn
你絕對會感到非常驚訝
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that some cities in 2000 B.C. had population densities
因為有些西元兩千年前的城市
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nearly twice as high as that of Shanghai or Calcutta.
人口密度幾乎是 上海或加爾各答的兩倍
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One reason for this
造成此現象的其中一個原因
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was that transportation was not widely available,
是由於當時交通不發達
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so everything had to be within walking distance,
所有事情都得在步行範圍內達成
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including the few sources of clean water
這也包括了
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that existed then.
汲取得來不易的水資源
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And the land area of the city
城市的土地
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was further restricted by the need for walls
又因須建造城牆抵禦外侮
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to defend against attacks.
而受到更多限制
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The Roman Empire was able to develop infrastructure
儘管羅馬帝國已發展了公共建設
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to overcome these limitations,
以便克服這些限制
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but other than that,
但除此之外,
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modern cities as we know them,
我們今日所知的現代城市
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didn't really get their start
直到工業革命時
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until the Industrial Revolution,
才真正開始發展
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when new technology deployed on a mass scale
當新科技背大量且廣泛地運用
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allowed cities to expand and integrate further,
使城市得以進一步擴張且整合
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establishing police,
像是建立警察制度,
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fire,
消防隊,
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and sanitation departments,
公衛部門,
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as well as road networks,
當然也包括道路系統,
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and later electricity distribution.
和之後的電力供應設施
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So, what is the future of cities?
所以,都市的未來發展為何呢?
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Global population is currently more than 7 billion
現今全球已經有超過70億人口
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and is predicted to top out around 10 billion.
而且據估計未來將突破100億
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Most of this growth will occur
大部分的人口成長將發生在
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in the urban areas of the world's poorest countries.
全世界最窮的國家中的都市區域
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So, how will cities need to change
那麼城市該做些什麼改變
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to accommodate this growth?
以應付如此龐大的成長呢?
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First, the world will need to seek ways
首先,各國須設法提供人民
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to provide adequate food,
足夠的食物,
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sanitation,
公共衛生設施,
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and education for all people.
以及教育
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Second, growth will need to happen
此外,人口成長必須發生在
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in a way that does not damage the land
不會破壞土地的前提上
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that provides us with the goods and services
因為土地等自然資源提供人類
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that support the human population.
許多賴以為生的必需品
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Food production might move
食物生產可能會移往
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to vertical farms and skyscrapers,
垂直農場,摩天大樓,
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rooftop gardens,
空中"菜"園,
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or vacant lots in city centers,
或市中心空曠的土地
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while power will increasingly come
此外也會持續增加
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from multiple sources of renewable energy.
多種不同再生能源的使用
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Instead of single-family homes,
獨棟的房子將逐漸式微
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more residences will be built vertically.
取而代之的是垂直加蓋的住宅
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We may see buildings that contain everything
未來我們將看到建築物
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that people need for their daily life,
內部涵蓋人們所有生存必須品
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as well as a smaller, self-sufficient cities
儼然如一個自給自足的小型城市
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focused on local and sustainable production.
仰賴能永續利用的當地產品
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The future of cities is diverse,
都市的未來是多樣化的,
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malleable,
可塑性高的.
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and creative,
而且充滿創意
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no longer built around a single industry,
城市不再是建立於單一工業上
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but reflecting an increasingly connected
而是反映了一個緊密連結
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and global world.
且國際化的地球村