Why don't we just let the population decrease

我們為什麼不讓人口減少呢？

If Taiwan's population is going to decrease

如果臺灣人口減少

The current population of 23.2 million would have to decrease by 2 million for an effect to be felt

目前的 2,320 萬人口必須減少 200 萬才能產生影響

That won't happen for 40 years

這種情況 40 年內都不會發生

Is the population increasing or decreasing at present?

目前人口是增加了還是減少了？

It's currently increasing

目前正在增加

It's simple, it's increasing if there are more births than deaths

很簡單，如果出生人數多於死亡人數，就說明人數在增加

There are 20,000 more births than deaths a year

每年出生人數比死亡人數多 20 000 人

But in 5 or 6 years births and deaths will be equal

但五六年後，出生和死亡人數將持平

Then deaths will overtake births and population will start to decline

然後，死亡人數將超過出生人數，人口將開始下降

However we encourage people to have children

然而，我們鼓勵人們生兒育女

This is still an inevitability

這仍然是不可避免的

It's not like if we encourage people to have children the population will continue to rise, it's impossible

並不是說我們鼓勵人們生育，人口就會繼續增長，這是不可能的。

In encouraging people to have children we're trying to alleviate the speed of the problem

在鼓勵人們生育的同時，我們也在努力加快問題的解決速度

Taiwan's problem is not the trend itself but rather the speed of the trend

臺灣的問題不在於趨勢本身，而在於趨勢的速度

We just need to slow the pace of population aging, delay it by 1, 2 or 3 years

我們只需要減緩人口老齡化的速度，延後 1 年、2 年或 3 年即可

This is its most important function

這是它最重要的功能

Slowing, even slightly the pace of problematic trends

減緩，哪怕是稍微減緩問題趨勢的步伐

Allows us time to take action against it

讓我們有時間對其採取行動

The moral values instilled by the family unit

家庭組織、部門灌輸的道德價值觀

Is something uniquely human

是人類獨有的東西

Humanity has two unique features, in my mind

在我看來，人類有兩個獨特之處

They can comprehend time and their lives are based around the family unit

他們能夠理解時間，他們的生活以家庭為組織、部門

This is essential, otherwise

這一點至關重要，否則

In the future, after the population has changed

未來，在人口發生變化之後

If you lack this basic unit...

如果您缺少這個基本組織、部門...

Do you think that government can replace every social structure of humanity?

你認為政府可以取代人類的所有社會結構嗎？

People often bring up Northern European countries as an example

人們常以北歐國家為例

Do you really think their system is better?

你真的認為他們的系統更好嗎？

What do you think the next step is for them?

你認為他們下一步該怎麼做？

They're in real difficulties now and don't know what to do about it

他們現在陷入了真正的困境，不知如何是好

They've gone as far as they can go

他們已經盡力了

Their tax rates can be above 50 or 60%

其稅率可能高於 50%或 60

You can do nothing but support your country

你們只能支持自己的國家

as you rely on it for everything from when you're born until you die

因為從出生到死亡，你的一切都依賴於它

So where do they go from there?

那麼，他們將何去何從？

Their policies...

他們的政策

If the population structure could stop as it is

如果人口結構能夠保持現狀

perhaps their policies would be able to sustain them

也許他們的政策能夠維持下去

But the structure can't possibly stop as it is

但結構不可能停止，因為它是

It will keep on changing

它將不斷變化

So you have to understand that

所以你必須明白

You can't think with only the present in mind

你不能只考慮現在

Perhaps their policy suits their current population structure

也許他們的政策適合當前的人口結構

This image looks good in comparison to other countries

與其他國家相比，該影像看起來不錯

but it doesn't mean that it will be good forever

但這並不意味著它將永遠是好的

They can't go on that way

他們不能再這樣下去了

Will they raise tax to 100%,

他們是否會將稅收提高到 100%、

It is not possible

不可能

They've reached an extreme

他們達到了一個極端

but their population is changing, is it not?

但他們的人口正在發生變化，不是嗎？

So what will they do after their population structure shifts

那麼，在人口結構發生變化後，它們會做什麼呢？

There is nothing they can do

他們無能為力

It the end of an era in history

這是一個歷史時代的終結

It looks like they are well-off now

看起來他們現在很富裕

but we can't let our thinking be confined to the present

但我們不能讓思維侷限於當下

I'm not sure if you understand what I'm saying

我不知道你是否明白我在說什麼

At the moment I'll admit they look better off

目前，我承認他們看起來更好一些

They pay between 42 and 62% tax

他們繳納 42% 至 62% 的稅款

We're currently at a rate of 12%

我們目前的增長率為 12% 。

If we raised it to 30% we could do the same things that they do

如果我們將其提高到 30%，我們就能做和他們一樣的事情

but it's not possible, people wouldn't agree to it

但這是不可能的，人們不會同意的

Each society has different lessons to learn

每個社會都有不同的經驗教訓

They're not social welfare states because of their current population structure

它們之所以不是社會福利國家，是因為其現有的人口結構

but rather they set out with it in mind as a permanent structure

而是將其作為一個永久性建築

When my generation was born

我們這一代人出生時

A mother... I mean a woman,

母親...我是說一個女人

not necessarily a mother

不一定是母親

She would have maybe 6 or 7 children

她可能會有六七個孩子

She would be uneducated and unemployed

她沒有受過教育，也沒有工作

Resources were very limited

資源非常有限

but they didn't just have one child

但他們並不只有一個孩子

however, we all made it through

不過，我們都挺過來了

At that time, the generation before mine

當時，上一代人

thought of children as a sign of hope

兒童是希望的象徵

They were, of course, also a burden

當然，它們也是一種負擔

but the hope they gave was greater than their burden

但他們給予的希望大於他們的負擔

so they would try to bring them up well

所以他們會努力把他們撫養成人

Isn't that right?

不是嗎？

It's not a problem of proportion

這不是比例問題

but rather a conceptual problem

而是一個概念問題

Nowadays, we are not talking about having 6 or 7 children

如今，我們不是在談論生 6 或 7 個孩子

but rather 1 or 2

而是 1 個或 2 個

If the burden of bringing up a child is quite a large one

如果撫養孩子的負擔相當沉重

you might think that a child brings less hope than the burden it entails

你可能會認為，孩子帶來的希望小於其帶來的負擔

then you might be put off

那麼你可能會不喜歡

So it is a economic problem

是以，這是一個經濟問題

As well as a problem of how you interpret economics

以及如何解釋經濟學的問題

Subtitled by Conor Stuart

字幕：Conor Stuart