Welcome to watch Mojo, and today we're counting down our picks for the top 10 reasons.
Joaquin Phoenix will win best actor for this list.
We're looking at a variety of convincing factors that make it highly probable that Joaquin Phoenix will take home the Oscar in the category of best actor at the 92nd Academy Awards.
It's the most talked about performance of the year.
Joaquin Phoenix is nothing if not consistent.
Pretty much every performance he's turned in since he rose to prominence at the turn of the century has been well received.
But even by his own high standard of excellence, his performances Arthur Fleck is a standout.
The critics were almost unanimously blown away.
Even those who otherwise took issue with film Rolling Stones.
Peter Travers proclaimed himself to be at a loss for words after seeing Joaquin's performance in Mark Remote of the Observer called Walking.
The film's quote Ace card, both among critics and the cinema going masses.
This is the performance people cannot stop discussing.
He's the bookie's favorite.
We're definitely not saying you should be putting down money on Joaquin Phoenix toe win.
But, hey, if there's anybody who needs to have a handle on the odds, it's the people whose livelihoods depend on it.
And the odds are indeed looking good for Phoenix to take home the big prize.
Now oddsmakers have different methodologies, and the actual odds change all the time.
But major books have Phoenix heavily favored, sometimes in the range of negative 2000 which sounds bad but is actually overwhelmingly good.
You'd have to bet a lot to get a relatively paltry return if he wins.
In other words, they think Joaquin is something close to a sure bet.
Number eight social relevance always plays well.
The academy likes a movie with a message.
Moonlight Dallas Buyers Club Spotlight These of the films that resonate, and those the themes and subject matter explored in Joker are definitely heavy and downright controversial.
There is no denying that despite being set in the 19 eighties, Joker feels relevant.
They've cut our funding, closing down our offices next week.
Questions of mental health, alienation, last division and senseless acts of violence are all at the forefront of society's current public discourse, and joker touches on all of them now, this logic arguably applies more directly to the best picture category.
The best actor.
But given that Phoenix is performance, is the beating heart of the film.
He is very much the embodiment of all those societal themes.
He just asked the same questions every week.
How's your job?
Are you having a negative thoughts?
All I have my negative thoughts.
Number seven Joker feels like an old school Scorsese film director Todd Phillips wears his score, says he influence on his sleeve with Joker.
Is it just me getting crazier out there?
Both the films, cinematography and its treatment of the central character feel very reminiscent of the iconic filmmakers earlier works, most notably Taxi Driver and the King of Comedy.
This city is like an open sewer, you know, it's full of filth and scum.
So he dropped out before production began.
Scorsese was originally attached as a producer, even without the involvement of the legendary director.
However, Phillips went ahead and made this an overt homage.
Joker might technically be a comic book movie, but it's first and foremost.
A character study in the same vein is Raging Bull, and when Character comes first in a film reminiscent of such classics definitely appeals to the academy.
There's no way I'm going down.
Don't look down for nobody.
The Joker is a character with an award's history.
It's no secret that superhero films, despite being the leading force at the box office, get very little love from the awards ceremonies.
There's always been a line drawn between film is entertainment and film, as art and comic book movies have typically, with few exceptions, been labeled entertainment.
You decide what's right or wrong the same way that you decide what's fun at or not.
Last year, Black Panther made history as the first superhero film to be nominated for best picture.
But before that, Jack Nicholson was nominated for a Golden Globe, For his turn is the Joker.
Jack is dead, laying the groundwork for Heath Ledger's posthumous best supporting actor award.
An actor should never sign up for a comic book movie with Oscar aspirations, but if they do, Joker is the role they should born Number five.
His competition isn't a steep.
We do not mean that as a slight to any of Joaquin's fellow nominees, they all delivered truly knockout performances.
I'm sorry about that.
But when it comes to the academy, as we've noted, buzz is a big factor, and Phoenix has claimed much of it for himself this year.
Do not compare me to my father.
I compare you to him.
I said you were acting like him.
Adam Driver was phenomenal and marriage story, but he shares the spotlight with Scarlett Johansson.
While Joker is the Phoenix show after Leonardo DiCaprio's The Revenant win, and compared to Arthur Fleck, Rick Dalton feels like he commands less attention.
As for Antonio Banderas and Jonathan Pryce, neither of their respective films generated enough buzz despite the high quality of their acting.
We'd like to think that Phoenix's performance would win any year, but this year's competition helps his odds.
The academy is making efforts to stay relevant, though they may be considered the highest honors.
And Film Theatre Academy Awards ceremony has notably been struggling with viewership.
In recent years, the organizer's have tried everything to keep people engaged, even going so far as to hand out awards during commercial breaks.
And though it's the voting members who ultimately decide who gets nominated and who doesn't, there seems to be a clear shift in mentality towards a more populist approach.
Short, the academy seems to be including more films that the general public cares about.
A best picture win for fantasy film involving an inter species relationship.
The shape of water and Rami Malik's best actor when both field representative of a shift closer towards popular opinion number three he won at the Golden Globes earlier, We said that Joaquin Phoenix is not up against very steep competition this year.
And if you're in need of proof, one need only look at how he's been cleaning up the various awards ceremonies.
Their scheduled before the Oscars.
He's already claimed winds in the Criticschoice Movie Awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and, most crucially, the Golden Globe and the best actor motion picture drama category.
I know people say this, but I really do feel honored to be mentioned with you.
While all major award shows helped to predict which actor will ultimately claim the Oscar, the Golden Globes drama category has historically have the strongest correlation.
It's also worth noting that Joker won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival, which, while not an acting award, usually foreshadows good things across the board of the Oscars number to the academy loves evil.
And, honestly, isn't that something we can all relate to?
There's just something so compelling about a villain what you got, huh?
Wanna bring it on?
In the case of the academy voters specifically, however, they tend to have a bit of a soft spot for performances.
The take actors to a dark place.
Everybody is awful these days.
It's enough to make anyone crazy.
Okay, so that's it.
That's your defense for killing three young men.
Many a recognizable, unlikable actor that are known for playing morally upright roles have finally realized there Oscar dreams by playing the bad guy.
The examples are numerous, but just to name a few Denzel Washington and Training Day, Charlize Theron in Monster, J K.
Simmons in Whiplash, Christoph Waltz in and Glorious Bastards and Kathy Bates in Misery Don't be Afraid, I Love You.
The key factor is that these characters aren't just dislikable, their overtly villainous.
In in 2019 it didn't get Maur Evil than Joker.
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He's long overdue.
Joaquin Phoenix is undeniably among the most talented actors of his generation.
But like Leonardo DiCaprio, he's had bad luck with the Oscars.
I give you a fax.
He's been nominated for best supporting actor once and now, including Joker three times in the best actor category.
DiCaprio finally got his moment in the spotlight when he took home the gold for his role in 2000 fifteen's The Revenant.
And while he's also a nominee this year, it seems clear that it's Phoenix astern.
Quite frankly, there are few roles he's turned in over the last two decades that aren't Oscar worthy.
We know that the academy doesn't vote based on the cumulative value of performances throughout an actor's career.
But really, it's time that Phoenix be recognized by his peers.