And that might seem a bit surprising because

這或許有點讓人意外，因為你們也知道 And that might seem a bit surprising because

my full-time work at the foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

我在基金會全職的工作主要關於疫苗和種子， my full-time work at the foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

about the things that we need to invent and deliver

這些急需要發明且散佈的事情 about the things that we need to invent and deliver

to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

以幫助20億貧民過更好生活。 to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

But energy and climate are extremely important to these people,

但是能源和氣候對這些人也極其重要， But energy and climate are extremely important to these people,

in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

實際上，比對地球其他人來說更重要。 in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

The climate getting worse, means that many years their crops won't grow.

氣候變得更壞，使得他們的穀物將有很多年無法成長。 The climate getting worse, means that many years their crops won't grow.

There will be too much rain, not enough rain.

有時將有太多雨，有時將會雨量不足。 There will be too much rain, not enough rain.

Things will change in ways

所有改變的方式 Things will change in ways

that their fragile environment simply can't support.

以他們脆弱環境實在難以支撐。 that their fragile environment simply can't support.

And that leads to starvation. It leads to uncertainty. It leads to unrest.

結果將導致飢餓。 導致不確定的恐慌和動亂。 And that leads to starvation. It leads to uncertainty. It leads to unrest.

So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

因此，氣候變化對於他們是十分可怕的。 So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

此外，能源的價格對他們非常重要。 Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,

實際上，如果你僅僅能挑一件東西降低價格， In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,

to reduce poverty, by far, you would pick energy.

以降低貧困，目前能源是最佳選項。 to reduce poverty, by far, you would pick energy.

Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

現下，能源的價格已經下降好長一段時間。 Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

Really, advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

真的，人類的文明進步是基於能量的進展。 Really, advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

The coal revolution fueled the industrial revolution,

煤的革命點燃工業革命， The coal revolution fueled the industrial revolution,

and, even in the 1900's we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,

並且，在20世紀我們看見電力的價格迅速下降。 and, even in the 1900's we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,

and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,

因此我們才能擁有冰箱，空調系統， and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,

we can make modern materials and do so many things.

並且能製造進步的材料及那麼多東西。 we can make modern materials and do so many things.

And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

也因此，我們處於一個有電力的美好富足世界。 And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --

如果，當我們使它更便宜 --讓我們努力使它兩倍便宜 -- But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --

we need to meet a new constraint,

我們就必須面臨新的限制， we need to meet a new constraint,

and that constraint has to do with CO2.

這限制就是CO2(二氧化碳)。 and that constraint has to do with CO2.

CO2 is warming the planet,

CO2使地球變暖， CO2 is warming the planet,

and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

而描述CO2的方程式實際上是非常直觀的。 and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

如果你把所有排出的CO2加起來， If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

that leads to a temperature increase,

那就會導致溫度增加， that leads to a temperature increase,

and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects.

而溫度增加進而導致一些負面效果。 and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects.

The effects on the weather and, perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

這效應對天氣有影響，更糟的是或許是其他間接的效應 The effects on the weather and, perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

我們的自然生態系統不能適應這些迅速的變化， in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

and so you get ecosystem collapses.

生態系統因而崩潰。 and so you get ecosystem collapses.

Now, the exact amount of how you map

現在對於精確的數據對應 Now, the exact amount of how you map

from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be

例如在CO2的增加量與溫度上昇幅度的對應 from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be

and where the positive feedbacks are,

以及是否有正向的回饋的存在 and where the positive feedbacks are,

there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

有些不確定性但不算太多 there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

當然對於這些效應有多糟的看法，也有不確定性 And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

but they will be extremely bad.

但方向上一定是相當糟的 but they will be extremely bad.

I asked the top scientists on this several times,

我好幾次就這議題問過幾位頂尖的科學家， I asked the top scientists on this several times,

do we really have to get down to near zero?

我們真的必須將CO2減量至幾近零嗎？ do we really have to get down to near zero?

Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

只降一半或降至四分之一呢? Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

And the answer is that, until we get near to zero,

而答案是直到我們降至零之前， And the answer is that, until we get near to zero,

the temperature will continue to rise.

溫度還是繼續升高。 the temperature will continue to rise.

And so that's a big challenge.

所以這是一大挑戰。 And so that's a big challenge.

It's very different than saying we're a 12 ft high truck trying to get under a 10 ft bridge,

這跟如何讓一輛12英尺高的卡車穿過一座10英尺高的橋完全不同， It's very different than saying we're a 12 ft high truck trying to get under a 10 ft bridge,

and we can just sort of squeeze under.

我們只能用力向下緊壓 and we can just sort of squeeze under.

This is something that has to get to zero.

要減量到零，有些事情必須考量。 This is something that has to get to zero.

Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,

現在，我們每年排出許多二氧化碳， Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,

over 26 billion tons.

超過260億公頓。 over 26 billion tons.

For each American, it's about 20 tons.

大約是每名美國人20公頓。 For each American, it's about 20 tons.

For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

對窮國的人們來說，每人不到一公頓。 For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

地球上每人的平均大約5 公頓。 It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

And, somehow, we have to make changes

不管如何，我們都必須改變 And, somehow, we have to make changes

that will bring that down to zero.

以減量到零。 that will bring that down to zero.

It's been constantly going up.

它一直不斷上升。 It's been constantly going up.

It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

曾有各種各樣的經濟變化使它的趨勢平緩， It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

so we have to go from rapidly rising

因此我們必須努力從迅速上升的趨勢 so we have to go from rapidly rising

to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

開始讓它下降，並且一路下降到零。 to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

This equation has four factors.

這個方程式有四個因子。 This equation has four factors.

A little bit of multiplication.

及簡單的相乘。 A little bit of multiplication.

So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

因此，左式有一因子CO2，你想要它趨於零， So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

and that's going to be based on the number of people,

而那必須基於「人口的數量」， and that's going to be based on the number of people,

the services each person's using on average,

「平均每人享用的服務」， the services each person's using on average,

the energy on average for each service,

「每種服務的平均的能源」， the energy on average for each service,

and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

及「單位能源排出的CO2」。 and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

So, let's look at each one of these

現在，讓我們逐一審視 So, let's look at each one of these

and see how we can get this down to zero.

並且想想我們如何能把這變成零。 and see how we can get this down to zero.

Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

或許，這些數字之一必須讓它趨近於零。 Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

Now that's back from high school algebra,

現在讓我們複習中學的代數， Now that's back from high school algebra,

but let's take a look.

讓我們瞧瞧。 but let's take a look.

First we've got population.

首先是人口。 First we've got population.

Now, the world today has 6.8 billion people.

現下，世界有約68億人。 Now, the world today has 6.8 billion people.

That's headed up to about nine billion.

未來預計增到大約90億。 That's headed up to about nine billion.

Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

現在，如果我們在新疫苗發展上有不錯的進展， Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

health care, reproductive health services,

包括醫療保健，生育保健服務 health care, reproductive health services,

we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,

或許會降低約10~15% we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,

but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

但目前是增加約1.3% but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

The second factor is the services we use.

第2 個因子是我們使用的服務。 The second factor is the services we use.

This encompasses everything,

這包含了所有的事情， This encompasses everything,

the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

我們吃的食品，衣服，電視，暖氣。 the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

These are very good things,

這些是非常好的東西， These are very good things,

and getting rid of poverty means providing these services

提供這些服務某種程度表示脫離了貧困 and getting rid of poverty means providing these services

to almost everyone on the planet.

如果能遍及地球上所有的人。 to almost everyone on the planet.

And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

增加這數量其實是好事 And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

在富有的世界，或許前10億人口， In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

we probably could cut back and use less,

我們或許能縮減享受以減少用量， we probably could cut back and use less,

but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

但是每年，這平均數目是上升的， but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

and so, over all, that will more than double

整體說來，將來會成為兩倍以上 and so, over all, that will more than double

the services delivered per person.

提供每人所享有的服務量 the services delivered per person.

Here we have a very basic service.

現在我們來談一項非常基本的服務。 Here we have a very basic service.

Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework,

你房子內有照明讓你能做你的家庭作業嗎? Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework,

and, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out

實際上，很多孩子沒有，因此他們必須到屋外 and, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out

and reading their school work under the street lamps.

並且在路燈下研讀他們的功課。 and reading their school work under the street lamps.

Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,

再來，講到效率，E，指每種服務所需的能量， Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,

here, finally we have some good news.

總算有一些好消息。 here, finally we have some good news.

We have something that's not going up.

某些事情並沒有增加。 We have something that's not going up.

Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

透過各式各樣的發明和製作照明設備的新方法， Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings.

透過不同的汽車類型，建築大樓的不同方法。 through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings.

there are a lot of services where you can bring

有許多你所使用的服務 there are a lot of services where you can bring

the energy for that service down quite substantially,

整體而言已大幅降低消耗的能量 the energy for that service down quite substantially,

some individual services even, bring it down by 90 percent.

某些項目甚至降了幾乎90% some individual services even, bring it down by 90 percent.

There are other services like how we make fertilizer,

但仍有不少項目如肥料製造 There are other services like how we make fertilizer,

or how we do air transport,

及空中運輸等 or how we do air transport,

where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

能夠改善的空間實在不大 where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,

因此概括的看，如果我們是樂觀主義者 And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,

we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

我們有可能降低到三分之一，甚或到六分之一 we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

But for these first three factors now,

但是現在對這些前3 個因素來說， But for these first three factors now,

we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

我們或許充其量從260億降到130億公頓， we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

and that just won't cut it.

且很難再往下降 and that just won't cut it.

So let's look at this fourth factor --

因此讓我們看第4因素 -- So let's look at this fourth factor --

this is going to be a key one --

這將是關鍵的一項 -- this is going to be a key one --

and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

每消耗單位能量所排出的CO2的數量。 and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

And so the question is, can you actually get that to zero?

問題是，你真的能讓它趨於零？ And so the question is, can you actually get that to zero?

If you burn coal, no.

燃燒煤，不可能。 If you burn coal, no.

If you burn natural gas, no.

燃燒天然氣，不可能。 If you burn natural gas, no.

Almost every way we make electricity today,

幾乎我們今天用來發電的任一方法， Almost every way we make electricity today,

except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

除了新興的再生能源和核能，都會排出CO2。 except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

因此，我們以全球性角度考量將來必須做的， And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

is create a new system.

是創建一新系統。 is create a new system.

And so, we need energy miracles.

我們需要能源奇蹟。 And so, we need energy miracles.

Now, when I use the term miracle, I don't mean something that's impossible.

我這裡使用奇蹟這個詞，並不意味著不可能發生。 Now, when I use the term miracle, I don't mean something that's impossible.

The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.

微處理器是一個奇蹟。 個人電腦是一個奇蹟。 The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.

The internet and its services are a miracle.

網際網路及其各項服務是一個奇蹟。 The internet and its services are a miracle.

So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

因此，在場各位已經共同參與創造過很多奇蹟。 So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

Usually, we don't have a deadline,

通常，我們不設期限， Usually, we don't have a deadline,

where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

不要求你必須在某天讓奇蹟出現。 where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

通常，你只要努力準備好，有些會發生，有些則沒有。 Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

This is a case where we actually have to drive full speed

但在這件事上我們必須加足馬力 This is a case where we actually have to drive full speed

and get a miracle in a pretty tight time line.

並在緊迫的時限內創造出奇蹟 and get a miracle in a pretty tight time line.

Now, I thought, how could I really capture this?

現在，我在想，我如何才能辦得到？ Now, I thought, how could I really capture this?

Is there some kind of natural illustration,

是否有自然的圖示 Is there some kind of natural illustration,

some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?

或其他現成的範例可以讓人們想像? some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?

I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,

我回想起一年前我帶一罐蚊子來到這裡 I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,

and somehow people enjoyed that.

人們似乎覺得有趣 and somehow people enjoyed that.

(Laughter)

(笑聲) (Laughter)

It really got them involved in the idea of,

這確實讓他們了解到 It really got them involved in the idea of,

you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.

不少人與蚊子生活在一起 you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.

So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.

所以，關於能源,我所能想到的就是這個 So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.

I decided that releasing fireflies

我決定放些螢火蟲 I decided that releasing fireflies

would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

這可能是今年我對環境所做的貢獻 would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

So here we have some natural fireflies.

所以我們將有一些天然的螢火蟲 So here we have some natural fireflies.

I'm told they don't bite, in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

我被告知這不會咬人，事實上,它們可能根本無法離開罐子 I'm told they don't bite, in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

(Laughter)

(笑聲) (Laughter)

Now, there's all sorts gimmicky solutions like that one,

現在有許多花拳繡腿的解決方案就如同剛剛的示範 Now, there's all sorts gimmicky solutions like that one,

but they don't really add up to much.

而它們實際的貢獻不大 but they don't really add up to much.

We need solutions, either one or several,

我們需要一個以上的方案 We need solutions, either one or several,

that have unbelievable scale

必須具有不可置信的規模 that have unbelievable scale

and unbelievable reliability,

以及難以想像的可靠性， and unbelievable reliability,

and, although there's many directions people are seeking,

雖然人們正追尋很多的方向， and, although there's many directions people are seeking,

I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

我只看見5種方式，可能達到足夠的需求。 I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

我已經放棄潮汐、地熱、核融合及生質能 I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

Those may make some contribution,

這些當然都能有些貢獻 Those may make some contribution,

and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,

但是必須比我預期的好很多、非常多才會有希望 and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,

but my key point here

我要說的重點是 but my key point here

is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,

我們將必須持續做這5項 is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,

and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

我們不能因為氣餒而放棄它們 and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

because they all have significant challenges.

也不能因為有各項顯著挑戰而放棄 because they all have significant challenges.

Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,

讓我們首先看石化燃料， Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,