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  • when we're in the center of Dublin a few miles from here in Donnybrook, they're preparing for the final leaders debate in this election.

  • But this time round on that podium.

  • Mary Lou McDonald from Shin Faint Now not that are erudite.

  • Viewers need any reminding, but Shin Fain remember the one time political arm of the IRA.

  • It's one time leader Gerry Adams, considered so dangerous by the British state.

  • His voice dubbed Over in broadcasts make absolutely no mistake about it.

  • This campaign has attached jump leads to Irish politics, and some would argue this campaign has attached jump leads to Irish history.

  • Irish General Election Up Close and personal There hasn't been a vote cast yes, boring A few days ago, predictable enough, the two main parties feed a fallen FINA Gael, slogging it out over the political middle ground.

  • Three issues dominating debate, housing, health and history.

  • I was like, You want to know?

  • But then a raft of popularity polls, culminating in one just last night that put the left wing Republican Shin Fain, forced its highest recorded level of support ever.

  • Suddenly, the fight is on both in a fall, and FINA Gael have ruled out coalition with Shin Fane, in part because of their relationship with the IRA.

  • Association with violent terrorism, is still raw in the minds of voters of a particular generation.

  • What's your message to those voters?

  • Well, look, thistle action is about building for the future.

  • Um, I know where they're coming from, though.

  • You know, I appreciate everybody who experience who was hurt in the course of the conflict.

  • Also know that it's over.

  • Yeah.

  • For some young Shin Fain activists, it never began an estate on the outskirts of gory County Wexford.

  • These the developments that mushroom during the boom abandoned during the bost but recovering the shin fain surge Young voters in places like this, everyone I know is voting should be number one.

  • We're gonna do it.

  • It is time for change.

  • The people bringing the message Born after the Good Friday agreement.

  • Socially liberal politics forged in the recent referendums on marriage, equality and abortion.

  • Yeah, well, I joined your train in 2017 when their appeal campaign was the most active on data.

  • One main reasons I joined because I saw Shin Vein as the party who were for equality for feminism.

  • aunt having a female leader and hopefully the first female T shocking dollar think is really important for me.

  • But then a sobering voice from on high on older Shen Feng border.

  • What are you going to do if you can't get in?

  • And that's the sticking point.

  • The other two main parties have said no coalition with Chin Fain on one party Winning outright won't happen.

  • Also, Shin Feigner fielding 42 candidates.

  • They need double that to form a majority government.

  • National popularity polls don't simplistically map onto seat numbers in the Irish system, so it's the Sunday just before elections and we have hot food down to the Midlands because of poll.

  • Just out shows that FINA Gael are behind both Champagne and FINA, for which would be a seismic shift in Irish politics.

  • Leah Veronica's FINA Gael has run a minority government in a confidence of supply arrangement with FINA.

  • Fall My dad's from Mumbai.

  • He's presided over a healthy economy, robust Brexit negotiations.

  • And after all, that Shin Fain, now snapping at his heels on Shen Feng, is not a normal party.

  • It's not just about their past.

  • It's also about their plans for the future for you.

  • Say fate is not a normal party.

  • Are all the thousands of people that will vote for the next weekend?

  • Normal people?

  • Yeah, of course.

  • There.

  • Andi, I have no choir that immense respect for any individual who votes Trish in pain.

  • But this is a democracy on.

  • Just because the party might get 20% of the vote or so doesn't give them the right to be in government anymore than my party has That right.

  • And we've always got more than 20% of the votes of the since 1948 s.

  • So I think we should paint.

  • Doesn't understand is that in order to form a government, you have to be able to convince people that you're a trustworthy partner.

  • There are other smaller parties, of course, as well.

  • Another coalition combinations most likely though, to involve either fina Gael are gonna fall in Borough County.

  • Awfully.

  • Their leader, me whole Martin, a prospective fishhook, all those scarred by the financial crisis.

  • Only a fool, they say underestimates fina Ford's ground game.

  • And on the ground, the leader sights trained on Chin Fi, the anti enterprise approach of Shin fain.

  • I mean, they're proposing four billion in extra taxes.

  • Um, with 16 new taxes, I think would really damage jobs in the country.

  • Interestingly, Brexit has not played big in this election.

  • Major parties reflected national consensus on Bull Island.

  • Hardy Dubliners.

  • Don't hesitate on before you do it, because you feel great is when you get out, just feel tingly on brilliant.

  • You feel more alive, and then you would be a little like a little like exiting the European Union.

  • No, completely.

  • The offices.

  • Shin Fane has said that a border pool on Irish Unity is a red line for them in coalition.

  • But just yesterday road back on that they don't want to be framed as a single issue Republican Party.

  • Many young voters believe they're not.

  • I think you're managing a really good job of playing into the zeitgeist of all the things that people of my generation are really passionate about, some older ones, not so sure.

  • I think back of all the bad things that happened over the last 30 40 years, it hasn't gone away.

  • I don't think there's been we haven't had long enough the time to think about it for two, supposed to bring them into into the fold.

  • The fact that the election is on a Saturday could be significant in terms of young people's turnout.

  • Either way, this weekend Ireland takes the plunge in Dublin, and joining us now from Dublin City is the journalist and writer Fenton.

  • Oh, to finito, you wrote recently.

  • There can be no progressive government in Ireland without Shin faint.

  • Now you're no fan of the IRA.

  • What's come over you?

  • Well, I'm certainly not a fan of the IRA.

  • I'm of an age, of course, where I remember all of those atrocities, which, of course, a lot of younger people now don't.

  • It's 22 years since the peace process, 22 years since the IRA finally laid down its arms on dhe.

  • The reality is that Irish politics is now kind of split into half and half.

  • There's that the old party scene fall from the Grail, the center right parties, which have dominated the state really for almost the entire 100 years, nearly of its existence, and the other half is broadly speaking, progressive left wing, anxious for social change.

  • On whether I like it or not, whether anybody else like that enough, those voters are co hearing to a very large extent around.

  • Shin Thing.

  • It's It's for the first time looking like you might get over 40% of voters in Ireland voting for left wing parties on.

  • That's what makes this election potentially historic.

  • That's in fate of backed off their demand of having a border pole.

  • But in the end, why shouldn't they have one?

  • Well, it's essentially they backed off it.

  • John, you're actually right.

  • You know, they realize that there's a little bit of a sense in the Republic of Ireland of Let's have IRS unity, O Lord, but not yet.

  • You know, people realize it's a very complicated business.

  • People realize that you really have to have reconciliation on the island before you're going to get unity.

  • People no longer really go along mostly with the kind of triumphalist idea that we'll get the fourth green field back A Z old songs would say so.

  • I think I think Shin Fein is responding to what it knows.

  • Public opinion in the South is, which is yes.

  • People know that with Brexit, things are changing.

  • But they also realized that this has to be a very delicate, generous open process of engagement with with with unionists in in Northern Ireland that simply having a border pole next week would change nothing.

  • It would just make everything more divided on more bitter.

  • Could we wake up on Sunday morning and find we've got a shin feign in coalition with the other two parties that have run island for all these years?

  • Yes, it's still possible, a CZ you heard in part of support the two big parties been followed for.

  • The girls are saying absolutely not in vain is still radioactive.

  • We will never go into government with them.

  • But if champagne gets the largest single chunk of votes, which is what the polls are telling us, it becomes very, very difficult to say that they're not a legitimate political party.

  • Their voters don't count me whatever you think about you in vain.

  • It's very difficult in a democracy to say that the votes of those people are not equal to everybody else's votes when it comes to the formation of a government.

  • So it's not impossible that we might be seeing something playing a role in government.

  • Certainly what we are going to be saying, I think, is a realignment of Irish politics because of Shin Fein isn't going to be in the government.

  • Then the two big center right parties, been a fallen for the Grail, are probably going to have to coalesce together, and that will end the kind of duopoly system that we've seen for almost 100 years.

when we're in the center of Dublin a few miles from here in Donnybrook, they're preparing for the final leaders debate in this election.

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愛爾蘭大選前新芬黨首次在民調中領先 (Sinn Fein leads in poll for first time ahead of Irish elections)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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