字幕列表 影片播放
-
There's been a huge row over Labour's tax and spending plans
-
this week.
-
The Conservatives say they'll blow a £1.2tn hole
-
in the nation's finances, creating a tax bombshell.
-
Labour dismisses this as nonsense.
-
It says higher tax will pay for day-to-day spending
-
on things like more nurses and doctors,
-
and it will only borrow for higher capital spending.
-
Some £55bn a year for transport, broadband, green energy,
-
hospitals and schools.
-
That's a lot more, more than doubling current public sector
-
investment plans.
-
It's also a lot higher than the Conservatives' promise.
-
Labour plans would raise government investment back
-
to levels last seen in the 1970s.
-
That's over 4 per cent of national income,
-
raising some big questions about whether Britain
-
can finance its borrowing, and whether it'll be well spent.
-
We sought to find out how investors
-
and British government debt might react.
-
The Chancellor, Sajid Javid, says they'll run scared.
-
He was talking about Labour creating an economic crisis
-
within months.
-
But on the financing question, the government bond market
-
doesn't appear terrified.
-
The UK government can borrow for 10 years
-
at a cost of only 0.75 per cent, a little up from a month ago
-
but still extremely low.
-
We also talked to many people in the markets.
-
The main view was that investors would be willing to finance
-
Labour or the Tory plans very cheaply.
-
For example, Mark Dowding, chief investment officer
-
at BlueBay Asset Management, summed up the view saying,
-
there was a once in a generation opportunity
-
for a big fiscal expansion.
-
But you shouldn't think that because bond investors are
-
prepared to fund big spending, they think it's a good idea.
-
Many we spoke to thought pushing so much money out of the door
-
so quickly would lead to waste and bad investments.
-
The bond market isn't full of vigilantes at the moment,
-
ready to push politicians around.
-
They're happy to finance Labour's plans,
-
even if they think the proposals won't work.
-
And there's a simple reason why.
-
They believe even if the plans are nuts,
-
they'll still be repaid, with at least some interest.