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  • Corporations sold a lot of debt last week.

  • They sold so much, in fact, that they

  • set a record for the most corporate debt sold in a week.

  • But if you think that means more investment going

  • into the economy, you may want to think again.

  • We have double the charts this week,

  • which means double the fun.

  • So let's get started.

  • So let's start with this large chart down here.

  • This data comes from Dealogic and it

  • shows the total amount of corporate debt issued

  • each year going back to 1999.

  • So it includes both high yield and investment grade debt.

  • As with most charts that go back over the financial crisis,

  • you can kind of see the effects of that

  • here with a large rise and then a large tumble.

  • But ever since then the issuance of corporate debt

  • each year has been rising.

  • And that's because borrowing costs have been low.

  • Now keep in mind this point right here is 2019.

  • We're not all the way through 2019 yet.

  • So even though each of these other observations

  • contains the entire year's worth of data

  • we only have up until September for this data point.

  • So this potentially is going to rise over

  • the course of the year.

  • Now, if we were to zoom in on that data point,

  • we would get this chart right here,

  • which shows 2019 corporate debt issuance from January

  • through the first week in September.

  • So this spike right here - this is last week.

  • This was the record setting corporate debt week

  • that we observed.

  • So why did this suddenly happen when the levels of debt

  • have been a little bit more stable

  • over the course of the year and then you have this shoot up?

  • Well, in August, Treasury yields were really low.

  • And so that meant that corporations

  • were able to issue debt at a low interest

  • rate, which means the cost to them

  • is much lower to borrow money.

  • Why would investors want to buy debt at a low interest rate?

  • Well, remember that in other markets - other bond markets

  • - there are negative interest rates right now.

  • So even if you're getting a low interest rate,

  • if it's in positive territory and you're an investor,

  • right now you're thinking that might not be the worst deal.

  • Two really unique things about this last week.

  • One was that usually when we see a bump in debt like this

  • it's because of some mega deal that's happened.

  • But that actually wasn't the case.

  • It was just companies issuing debt.

  • They just saw an opportunity and they took it.

  • So, for example, Apple sold $7bn in debt.

  • Disney sold $7bn in debt.

  • And there was a little bit more of a concentration

  • from US corporations issuing debt.

  • Although remember, this data contains the entire globe.

  • Now let's talk about the second interesting thing

  • that has to do with this debt issuance.

  • Normally, when a company issues debt

  • they do it so that they can take that money

  • and invest it in new products or services that they offer.

  • So they're expanding their business.

  • They're investing in something new in the economy.

  • Well actually, with this issuance last week

  • a lot of companies said they're actually

  • using the money to pay off old debts

  • and essentially restructuring their current debt so that it's

  • over a longer maturity period.

  • So if you thought, oh great, all these companies,

  • they're going to be investing their money

  • in new things for the economy.

  • Well actually, it may not be the case.

  • At the same time though that means

  • that the total amount of leverage

  • that a company may have isn't necessarily going up too much.

  • So if the total level of corporate debt out

  • there worries you.

  • If you think, ah, this looks like something

  • that could be a bubble that burst

  • in the case of a recession, well you're not necessarily wrong.

  • But remember that if that were to happen

  • the first place that we would see

  • it is in the high yield debt market.

  • Because remember high-yield debt refers to companies

  • that are already in a situation where

  • they're going to have a hard time paying back the money

  • they owe.

  • So if you're worried about it, keep an eye

  • on the high-yield markets.

  • But as for now, I say let's wait and see

  • what happens to the end of 2019 and see if this record

  • week turns into a record year.

Corporations sold a lot of debt last week.

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為什麼企業發債金額創歷史新高一圖表算數? (Why companies issued a record amount of debt I Charts that Count)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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