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  • BILL WERDE: My name is Bill Werde.

    我叫比爾-韋德。

  • I'm the Editorial Director for Billboard, Billboard Magazine,

    我'是Billboard,Billboard雜誌的編輯總監。

  • billboard.com, billboard.biz.

    billboard.com,billboard.biz。

  • And if I'm supposed to know anything, I'm supposed to know

    如果我應該知道任何事情,我應該知道。

  • a little bit about what goes on in the music business and

    一點點關於什麼發生在音樂業務和

  • what goes on with music.

    音樂是怎麼回事。

  • And so I thought today that since there was a cross

    所以我今天想,既然有一個交叉的。

  • section of different cultural commerce leaders here in the

    在座的不同文化商務上司的科

  • audience, that I'd put forth the theory that music--

    聽眾,我提出的理論,音樂 --

  • the music industry-- is a little bit of the canary in

    音樂產業 - 是一個有點金絲雀在

  • the coal mine, by virtue of file size, by virtue of the

    煤礦,憑藉文件大小,憑藉。

  • ubiquitousness of music.

    音樂的無處不在。

  • When the digital revolution happened, the music industry

    當數字革命發生時,音樂產業

  • was the first one to shit the bed.

    是第一個在床上拉屎的人。

  • [LAUGHTER]

    [笑聲]

  • In order to properly contextualize the conversation

    為了適當地將對話的背景化

  • that we're about to have, I promised I would try not to

    我答應過我儘量不做任何事情

  • swear too much.

    罵人太多。

  • That's one.

    這是一個。

  • You guys can keep score.

    你們可以記賬。

  • In order to properly understand the conversations

    為了正確理解談話內容

  • that we're going to have here today over the next hour, I

    我們將有今天在這裡 在接下來的一個小時,我。

  • want to take just three or four minutes and kind of take

    想花上三四分鐘的時間,種採取

  • you through the music business, where it's been,

    你通過音樂業務,它在哪裡'的一直。

  • where it is now, and where it's likely going.

    它現在的位置,以及它可能的去向。

  • This is a gratuitous slide in which I subtly remind you to

    這是一張無償的幻燈片,我在其中巧妙地提醒你們

  • follow me on Twitter.

    在Twitter上關注我。

  • So starting shortly after World War II, people listened

    所以從二戰後不久開始,人們就開始聽

  • to music on vinyl albums.

    到黑膠唱片的音樂。

  • It was shortly after World War II, because after World War

    那是二戰後不久的事,因為二戰後

  • II, Americans had the resources.

    二,美國人有資源。

  • They had money, and they had the materials again.

    他們有錢,他們又有材料。

  • And vinyl records started becoming very popular because

    黑膠唱片開始變得非常流行,因為

  • of this new craze called rock-and-roll music.

    這種新的熱潮稱為搖滾音樂。

  • We fast forward.

    我們快進。

  • We get to cassette albums, and suddenly

    我們得到的卡帶式專輯,並突然

  • music is more portable.

    音樂更便攜。

  • It still sounds like crap, but it's more portable.

    它聽起來仍然像廢話,但它'更便攜。

  • And you can see with each curve you get

    你可以看到每條曲線都會有

  • a little bit higher.

    再高一點。

  • Now this is the CD.

    現在這就是CD。

  • And you can see we're progressing through time.

    而且你可以看到我們'在時間上的進步。

  • And this period right here, this big giant spiral, that's

    而這個時期就在這裡,這個大的巨大的螺旋,這'。

  • what the music business-- the recorded music

    什麼是音樂事業--------錄音音樂

  • business, mind you--

    生意上的事,你要知道...

  • likes to refer to as "awesome awesomeness." This is where

    喜歡稱其為"awesome awomeness."這是

  • people are going out and repurchasing all the music

    人們出去購買所有的音樂。

  • they already own at $17 a pop.

    他們已經擁有了17美元一個的價格。

  • This is, at the peak of this moment, right-- that very,

    這是,在此刻的巔峰時刻,正確的--那非常。

  • very tip-top peak--

    峰迴路轉

  • that's the teen pop explosion.

    這就是青少年流行音樂的爆發。

  • That's at the Backstreet Boys, Britney Spears, 'N Sync--

    這是在後街男孩,小甜甜布蘭妮,'N Sync - -。

  • very good, an 'N Sync fan in the audience.

    非常好,一個'N同步粉絲在觀眾。

  • [LAUGHTER]

    [笑聲]

  • BILL WERDE: You can't be any happier at this moment in time

    比爾-韋德:在這個時候,你不能再高興了'。

  • if you work in the recorded-music business,

    如果你的工作在記錄音樂業務。

  • because you've got these dying, passionate fans for

    因為你已經得到了這些垂死的, 激情的球迷的

  • these boy bands, and Britney, and Christina.

    這些男孩樂隊, 和布蘭妮,和克里斯蒂娜。

  • And all they can do is go to a record store-- you remember

    而他們能做的就是去唱片店--你還記得嗎?

  • record stores--

    唱片店--

  • and spend $18 to buy the album.

    並花18元購買專輯。

  • And then you know what happens right at that peak moment?

    然後你知道在那個高峰時刻會發生什麼嗎?

  • Napster happens.

    Napster公司發生。

  • And so here we are.

    所以我們在這裡。

  • This is the sale of CDs, and you can kind of see the effect

    這就是CD的銷售,你可以看到的效果。

  • that the digital revolution had on the sale of CDs.

    數字革命對CD銷售的影響。

  • It wasn't pretty.

    這並不好看。

  • I think, staying true to my role as the canary in the coal

    我想,保持我的角色 作為煤炭中的金絲雀。

  • mine, I'll tell you that there's a couple of things

    我的,我會告訴你,有'的一對夫婦的事情。

  • that we all learned from the recorded-music business during

    我們都學會了從記錄音樂業務期間。

  • this period of time.

    這段時間。

  • And the most important one, since we only have a little

    而最重要的一個,因為我們只有一點點的

  • bit of time here today, is that you

    今天在這裡的一點時間,是你

  • cannot fight the current.

    不能對抗水流。

  • One thing you may notice about all three of these cycles is

    關於這三個週期,你可能會注意到一件事,那就是

  • that once you hit your peak moment and you start going

    一旦你達到你的巔峰時刻,你開始去

  • down, you never start going back up again.

    下來的時候,你就不會再開始往上走了。

  • So you can either adapt and figure out awesome things you

    所以,你可以適應並找出你的厲害之處。

  • can do with that current, or you can shit

    可以做的電流,或者你可以狗屎。

  • the bed, number two.

    床上,二號。

  • That was ironic.

    這是諷刺。

  • [LAUGHTER]

    [笑聲]

  • I got here late, and they told me that people laughed at Eric

    我到這裡晚了,他們告訴我,人們嘲笑埃裡克。

  • Schmidt's jokes.

    施密特'的笑話。

  • And that made me feel really good.

    這讓我感覺非常好。

  • Because Eric Schmidt is a brilliant man, but he is not

    因為埃裡克-施密特是個聰明人,但他並不是。

  • Steve Martin.

    史蒂夫-馬丁

  • So here we have digital album sales.

    所以我們這裡有數字專輯的銷售。

  • And we can see there's still a pretty big gulf.

    而且我們可以看到還有'相當大的鴻溝。

  • And we can see that digital album sales didn't quite take

    而我們可以看到,數字專輯的銷售並沒有完全採取。

  • off the way some of these other formats took off.

    關的方式,這些其他格式的一些起飛。

  • The curve isn't as quick.

    曲線沒有'那麼快。

  • People are a little slow on the uptake.

    人們的接受能力有點慢。

  • But this is why I think the music business is actually

    但是,這就是為什麼我認為音樂業務其實是

  • positioned to be a canary in the coal mine and not just a

    的定位是煤礦中的金絲雀,而不僅僅是一個。

  • bunch of people buried at the bottom.

    一群人埋在底部。

  • Because when we add in track-equivalency sales--

    因為當我們加上軌道等價物的銷售額... ...

  • so we take 10 tracks, and we consider that the

    是以,我們取10條軌道,我們認為是

  • volume of an album.

    一張專輯的音量。

  • Now suddenly, in 2010 and today, in fact, we've hit the

    現在突然間,在2010年和今天,事實上,我們'已經達到了。

  • break-even point.

    盈虧平衡點。

  • Now granted, it's a break-even point that's much lower than

    現在,它'的盈虧平衡點,比'低得多

  • where we were, where the music business was 10-12 years ago.

    我們在哪裡,哪裡的音樂業務是10 -12年前。

  • But it's a floor.

    但它'是一個地板。

  • It's something you can build on.

    這'的東西,你可以建立在。

  • Now that break-even point doesn't take into

    現在,這個盈虧平衡點並沒有考慮到'。

  • consideration all the new ways people are making money since

    考慮到所有新的方式,人們正在賺錢,自

  • the digital revolution began.

    數字革命開始了。

  • So you've got live music.

    所以你有現場音樂。

  • In the same 10-12 years that the recorded-music industry

    在同樣的10 -12年,記錄音樂產業

  • has been in a free fall, live music has actually grown, and

    一直處於自由落體的狀態,現場音樂其實也在成長,而且。

  • grown pretty steadily with a couple of dips here or there.

    增長相當穩定,這裡或那裡的幾個下降。

  • People are making more money from touring.

    人們從旅遊中賺到了更多的錢。

  • People are making more money from merch.

    人們從商品中賺到了更多的錢。

  • And I think probably the biggest shift that has gone on

    我想可能最大的轉變已經發生了。

  • is that, once upon a time, people put out an album and

    是,從前,人們推出一張專輯,並。

  • toured to support it.

    巡迴支持。

  • And now, people put out music to support their tour.

    而現在,人們推出音樂來支持他們的巡演。

  • Spotify--

    Spotify --

  • services like Spotify, MOG, Vivo, YouTube.

    服務,如Spotify、MOG、Vivo、YouTube。

  • What's interesting is that just a few years ago, iTunes

    有趣的是,就在幾年前,iTunes

  • was basically responsible for 70%, 80%, 90% of a record

    基本上承擔了70%、80%、90%的記錄。

  • label's digital revenue.

    標籤'的數字收入。

  • And today, if you talk to someone at a record label,

    而今天,如果你和唱片公司的人談話,

  • what you'll find out is that digital revenue has become

    你會發現的是,數字收入已成為

  • roughly 40% to 50% of a typical label's revenue in

    約佔典型品牌收入的40%至50%。

  • recorded music.

    錄音音樂。

  • And of that 40% to 50%, as much as 40% or 50% is now not

    而在這四五成中,有四五成之多是現在沒有的。

  • coming from iTunes.

    來自iTunes的。

  • And that diversification is really important news-- really

    而這種多樣化是真正重要的新聞--真正的

  • good news--

    好消息

  • for the health of the recorded-music business, and

    唱片業的健康發展,以及。

  • for the health of everyone.

    為了大家的健康。

  • Competition is a good thing.

    競爭是一件好事。

  • But if you want to talk about the power of YouTube and the

    但是,如果你想談論YouTube的力量和

  • power of these platforms, I want to use a little example.

    這些平臺的力量,我想用一個小例子。

  • How many people, by a quick show of hands, know the song

    舉手之勞,有多少人知道這首歌?

  • "Gangnam Style?" So most of you.

    "江南style?"所以大部分的人。

  • I'm shocked, by the way, that so many of you haven't heard

    我很震驚,順便說一句,你們這麼多人都沒聽說過。

  • the song, "Gangnam Style." But I will not publicly ridicule

    這首歌,"江南Style."但我不會公開嘲笑。

  • you at this moment.

    你在這個時候。

  • How many people here know the song "Whistle," by Flo Rida?

    這裡有多少人知道弗洛-裡達的歌曲"哨子,"?

  • So decidedly fewer.

    所以明顯少了。

  • So what's interesting about this to me are these numbers.

    所以對我來說,有趣的是這些數字。

  • "Whistle," by Flo Rida, was the number one song on FM

    由Flo Rida演唱的《口哨》是FM上的頭號歌曲。

  • radio in all formats last week.

    上週所有格式的廣播。

  • It was played almost 20,000 times.

    播放了近2萬次。

  • That's 3,000 times a day in the United States.

    這'在美國每天有3000次。

  • That's amazing.

    那真是太神奇了。

  • That's like a great, great song.

    這就像一首偉大的,偉大的歌曲。

  • Psy's "Gangnam Style," in the last two months has been

    Psy'的"江南style,"在過去的兩個月裡,一直是。

  • played 220 million times, or 3.4 million times a day.

    播放2.2億次,即每天播放340萬次。

  • That is the opportunity that is created by the

    這就是《》所創造的機會。

  • democratizing platform such as YouTube.

    YouTube等民主化平臺。

  • You make a better product.

    你做的產品更好。

  • You make a better video.

    你做一個更好的視頻。

  • You make something amazing.

    你做的東西很神奇。

  • People share it.

    人們分享它。

  • People see it.

    人們看到了它。

  • Brand deals have gone up.

    品牌交易量有所上升。

  • Pepsi, Coke, Chevrolet, Heineken--

    百事可樂、可樂、雪佛蘭、喜力... ...

  • all these labels that are spending all

    所有這些標籤,正在花費所有

  • this money on music.

    這個錢在音樂上。

  • Film and TV syncs have gone up--

    影視同步漲價了--。

  • Mad Men, Breaking Bad, X Factor, all these

    《瘋狂的人》、《霹靂嬌娃》、《X因素》,所有這些

  • shows that use music.

    使用音樂的節目。

  • This is what's happened since recorded

    這是自記錄以來發生的事情。

  • music took its nosedive.

    音樂出現了下滑。

  • Kickstarter--

    啟動器 --

  • you're going to hear from Julia Nunes in just a moment,

    你'一會兒就會聽到Julia Nunes的聲音。

  • but she put some great videos, some great songs, on YouTube.

    但她把一些偉大的視頻, 一些偉大的歌曲,在YouTube上。

  • Wound up with millions of people

    纏住了數百萬人

  • checking out those videos.

    檢查出這些視頻。

  • Put up a Kickstarter campaign.

    開展Kickstarter活動。

  • Wanted to raise $15,000.

    想籌集15000元。

  • Raised $75,000.

    籌集了75000美元。

  • Pandora.

    潘多拉

  • And at the center of all these is the artist with a different

    而在這一切的中心,是具有不同的藝術家。

  • kind of leverage point than the artist had before recorded

    比藝人在錄製之前的槓桿點。

  • music hit the skids.

    音樂打滑。

  • Because in the recorded music, in the old model, if you were

    因為在錄製的音樂中,在舊的模式下,如果你是... ...

  • a really, really superstar artist, you might generate 20%

    一個真正的,真正的超級明星藝術家,你可能會產生20%的收入

  • of the revenue that was created from

    所創造的收入中的

  • selling your albums.

    銷售你的專輯。

  • And today, in a lot of these opportunities, the artist is

    而今天,在很多這樣的機會中,藝術家是

  • much more the partner.

    多的夥伴。

BILL WERDE: My name is Bill Werde.

我叫比爾-韋德。

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Bill Werde on Trends in Music

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    Why Why 發佈於 2013 年 03 月 25 日
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