I'm the Editorial Director for Billboard, Billboard Magazine,

我'是Billboard，Billboard雜誌的編輯總監。

billboard.com, billboard.biz.

billboard.com，billboard.biz。

And if I'm supposed to know anything, I'm supposed to know

如果我應該知道任何事情，我應該知道。

a little bit about what goes on in the music business and

一點點關於什麼發生在音樂業務和

what goes on with music.

音樂是怎麼回事。

And so I thought today that since there was a cross

所以我今天想，既然有一個交叉的。

section of different cultural commerce leaders here in the

在座的不同文化商務上司的科

audience, that I'd put forth the theory that music--

聽眾，我提出的理論，音樂 --

the music industry-- is a little bit of the canary in

音樂產業 - 是一個有點金絲雀在

the coal mine, by virtue of file size, by virtue of the

煤礦，憑藉文件大小，憑藉。

ubiquitousness of music.

音樂的無處不在。

When the digital revolution happened, the music industry

當數字革命發生時，音樂產業

was the first one to shit the bed.

是第一個在床上拉屎的人。

[LAUGHTER]

[笑聲]

In order to properly contextualize the conversation

為了適當地將對話的背景化

that we're about to have, I promised I would try not to

我答應過我儘量不做任何事情

swear too much.

罵人太多。

That's one.

這是一個。

You guys can keep score.

你們可以記賬。

In order to properly understand the conversations

為了正確理解談話內容

that we're going to have here today over the next hour, I

我們將有今天在這裡 在接下來的一個小時，我。

want to take just three or four minutes and kind of take

想花上三四分鐘的時間，種採取

you through the music business, where it's been,

你通過音樂業務，它在哪裡'的一直。

where it is now, and where it's likely going.

它現在的位置，以及它可能的去向。

This is a gratuitous slide in which I subtly remind you to

這是一張無償的幻燈片，我在其中巧妙地提醒你們

follow me on Twitter.

在Twitter上關注我。

So starting shortly after World War II, people listened

所以從二戰後不久開始，人們就開始聽

to music on vinyl albums.

到黑膠唱片的音樂。

It was shortly after World War II, because after World War

那是二戰後不久的事，因為二戰後

II, Americans had the resources.

二，美國人有資源。

They had money, and they had the materials again.

他們有錢，他們又有材料。

And vinyl records started becoming very popular because

黑膠唱片開始變得非常流行，因為

of this new craze called rock-and-roll music.

這種新的熱潮稱為搖滾音樂。

We fast forward.

我們快進。

We get to cassette albums, and suddenly

我們得到的卡帶式專輯，並突然

music is more portable.

音樂更便攜。

It still sounds like crap, but it's more portable.

它聽起來仍然像廢話，但它'更便攜。

And you can see with each curve you get

你可以看到每條曲線都會有

a little bit higher.

再高一點。

Now this is the CD.

現在這就是CD。

And you can see we're progressing through time.

而且你可以看到我們'在時間上的進步。

And this period right here, this big giant spiral, that's

而這個時期就在這裡，這個大的巨大的螺旋，這'。

what the music business-- the recorded music

什麼是音樂事業--------錄音音樂

business, mind you--

生意上的事，你要知道...

likes to refer to as "awesome awesomeness." This is where

喜歡稱其為"awesome awomeness."這是

people are going out and repurchasing all the music

人們出去購買所有的音樂。

they already own at $17 a pop.

他們已經擁有了17美元一個的價格。

This is, at the peak of this moment, right-- that very,

這是，在此刻的巔峰時刻，正確的--那非常。

very tip-top peak--

峰迴路轉

that's the teen pop explosion.

這就是青少年流行音樂的爆發。

That's at the Backstreet Boys, Britney Spears, 'N Sync--

這是在後街男孩，小甜甜布蘭妮，'N Sync - -。

very good, an 'N Sync fan in the audience.

非常好，一個'N同步粉絲在觀眾。

[LAUGHTER]

[笑聲]

BILL WERDE: You can't be any happier at this moment in time

比爾-韋德：在這個時候，你不能再高興了'。

if you work in the recorded-music business,

如果你的工作在記錄音樂業務。

because you've got these dying, passionate fans for

因為你已經得到了這些垂死的， 激情的球迷的

these boy bands, and Britney, and Christina.

這些男孩樂隊， 和布蘭妮，和克里斯蒂娜。

And all they can do is go to a record store-- you remember

而他們能做的就是去唱片店--你還記得嗎？

record stores--

唱片店--

and spend $18 to buy the album.

並花18元購買專輯。

And then you know what happens right at that peak moment?

然後你知道在那個高峰時刻會發生什麼嗎？

Napster happens.

Napster公司發生。

And so here we are.

所以我們在這裡。

This is the sale of CDs, and you can kind of see the effect

這就是CD的銷售，你可以看到的效果。

that the digital revolution had on the sale of CDs.

數字革命對CD銷售的影響。

It wasn't pretty.

這並不好看。

I think, staying true to my role as the canary in the coal

我想，保持我的角色 作為煤炭中的金絲雀。

mine, I'll tell you that there's a couple of things

我的，我會告訴你，有'的一對夫婦的事情。

that we all learned from the recorded-music business during

我們都學會了從記錄音樂業務期間。

this period of time.

這段時間。

And the most important one, since we only have a little

而最重要的一個，因為我們只有一點點的

bit of time here today, is that you

今天在這裡的一點時間，是你

cannot fight the current.

不能對抗水流。

One thing you may notice about all three of these cycles is

關於這三個週期，你可能會注意到一件事，那就是

that once you hit your peak moment and you start going

一旦你達到你的巔峰時刻，你開始去

down, you never start going back up again.

下來的時候，你就不會再開始往上走了。

So you can either adapt and figure out awesome things you

所以，你可以適應並找出你的厲害之處。

can do with that current, or you can shit

可以做的電流，或者你可以狗屎。

the bed, number two.

床上，二號。

That was ironic.

這是諷刺。

[LAUGHTER]

[笑聲]

I got here late, and they told me that people laughed at Eric

我到這裡晚了，他們告訴我，人們嘲笑埃裡克。

Schmidt's jokes.

施密特'的笑話。

And that made me feel really good.

這讓我感覺非常好。

Because Eric Schmidt is a brilliant man, but he is not

因為埃裡克-施密特是個聰明人，但他並不是。

Steve Martin.

史蒂夫-馬丁

So here we have digital album sales.

所以我們這裡有數字專輯的銷售。

And we can see there's still a pretty big gulf.

而且我們可以看到還有'相當大的鴻溝。

And we can see that digital album sales didn't quite take

而我們可以看到，數字專輯的銷售並沒有完全採取。

off the way some of these other formats took off.

關的方式，這些其他格式的一些起飛。

The curve isn't as quick.

曲線沒有'那麼快。

People are a little slow on the uptake.

人們的接受能力有點慢。

But this is why I think the music business is actually

但是，這就是為什麼我認為音樂業務其實是

positioned to be a canary in the coal mine and not just a

的定位是煤礦中的金絲雀，而不僅僅是一個。

bunch of people buried at the bottom.

一群人埋在底部。

Because when we add in track-equivalency sales--

因為當我們加上軌道等價物的銷售額... ...

so we take 10 tracks, and we consider that the

是以，我們取10條軌道，我們認為是

volume of an album.

一張專輯的音量。

Now suddenly, in 2010 and today, in fact, we've hit the

現在突然間，在2010年和今天，事實上，我們'已經達到了。

break-even point.

盈虧平衡點。

Now granted, it's a break-even point that's much lower than

現在，它'的盈虧平衡點，比'低得多

where we were, where the music business was 10-12 years ago.

我們在哪裡，哪裡的音樂業務是10 -12年前。

But it's a floor.

但它'是一個地板。

It's something you can build on.

這'的東西，你可以建立在。

Now that break-even point doesn't take into

現在，這個盈虧平衡點並沒有考慮到'。

consideration all the new ways people are making money since

考慮到所有新的方式，人們正在賺錢，自

the digital revolution began.

數字革命開始了。

So you've got live music.

所以你有現場音樂。

In the same 10-12 years that the recorded-music industry

在同樣的10 -12年，記錄音樂產業

has been in a free fall, live music has actually grown, and

一直處於自由落體的狀態，現場音樂其實也在成長，而且。

grown pretty steadily with a couple of dips here or there.

增長相當穩定，這裡或那裡的幾個下降。

People are making more money from touring.

人們從旅遊中賺到了更多的錢。

People are making more money from merch.

人們從商品中賺到了更多的錢。

And I think probably the biggest shift that has gone on

我想可能最大的轉變已經發生了。

is that, once upon a time, people put out an album and

是，從前，人們推出一張專輯，並。

toured to support it.

巡迴支持。

And now, people put out music to support their tour.

而現在，人們推出音樂來支持他們的巡演。

Spotify--

Spotify --

services like Spotify, MOG, Vivo, YouTube.

服務，如Spotify、MOG、Vivo、YouTube。

What's interesting is that just a few years ago, iTunes

有趣的是，就在幾年前，iTunes

was basically responsible for 70%, 80%, 90% of a record

基本上承擔了70%、80%、90%的記錄。

label's digital revenue.

標籤'的數字收入。

And today, if you talk to someone at a record label,

而今天，如果你和唱片公司的人談話，

what you'll find out is that digital revenue has become

你會發現的是，數字收入已成為

roughly 40% to 50% of a typical label's revenue in

約佔典型品牌收入的40%至50%。

recorded music.

錄音音樂。

And of that 40% to 50%, as much as 40% or 50% is now not

而在這四五成中，有四五成之多是現在沒有的。

coming from iTunes.

來自iTunes的。

And that diversification is really important news-- really

而這種多樣化是真正重要的新聞--真正的

good news--

好消息

for the health of the recorded-music business, and

唱片業的健康發展，以及。

for the health of everyone.

為了大家的健康。

Competition is a good thing.

競爭是一件好事。

But if you want to talk about the power of YouTube and the

但是，如果你想談論YouTube的力量和

power of these platforms, I want to use a little example.

這些平臺的力量，我想用一個小例子。

How many people, by a quick show of hands, know the song

舉手之勞，有多少人知道這首歌？

"Gangnam Style?" So most of you.

"江南style?"所以大部分的人。

I'm shocked, by the way, that so many of you haven't heard

我很震驚，順便說一句，你們這麼多人都沒聽說過。

the song, "Gangnam Style." But I will not publicly ridicule

這首歌，"江南Style."但我不會公開嘲笑。

you at this moment.

你在這個時候。

How many people here know the song "Whistle," by Flo Rida?

這裡有多少人知道弗洛-裡達的歌曲"哨子，"？

So decidedly fewer.

所以明顯少了。

So what's interesting about this to me are these numbers.

所以對我來說，有趣的是這些數字。

"Whistle," by Flo Rida, was the number one song on FM

由Flo Rida演唱的《口哨》是FM上的頭號歌曲。

radio in all formats last week.

上週所有格式的廣播。

It was played almost 20,000 times.

播放了近2萬次。

That's 3,000 times a day in the United States.

這'在美國每天有3000次。

That's amazing.

那真是太神奇了。

That's like a great, great song.

這就像一首偉大的，偉大的歌曲。

Psy's "Gangnam Style," in the last two months has been

Psy'的"江南style,"在過去的兩個月裡，一直是。

played 220 million times, or 3.4 million times a day.

播放2.2億次，即每天播放340萬次。

That is the opportunity that is created by the

這就是《》所創造的機會。

democratizing platform such as YouTube.

YouTube等民主化平臺。

You make a better product.

你做的產品更好。

You make a better video.

你做一個更好的視頻。

You make something amazing.

你做的東西很神奇。

People share it.

人們分享它。

People see it.

人們看到了它。

Brand deals have gone up.

品牌交易量有所上升。

Pepsi, Coke, Chevrolet, Heineken--

百事可樂、可樂、雪佛蘭、喜力... ...

all these labels that are spending all

所有這些標籤，正在花費所有

this money on music.

這個錢在音樂上。

Film and TV syncs have gone up--

影視同步漲價了--。

Mad Men, Breaking Bad, X Factor, all these

《瘋狂的人》、《霹靂嬌娃》、《X因素》，所有這些

shows that use music.

使用音樂的節目。

This is what's happened since recorded

這是自記錄以來發生的事情。

music took its nosedive.

音樂出現了下滑。

Kickstarter--

啟動器 --

you're going to hear from Julia Nunes in just a moment,

你'一會兒就會聽到Julia Nunes的聲音。

but she put some great videos, some great songs, on YouTube.

但她把一些偉大的視頻， 一些偉大的歌曲，在YouTube上。

Wound up with millions of people

纏住了數百萬人

checking out those videos.

檢查出這些視頻。

Put up a Kickstarter campaign.

開展Kickstarter活動。

Wanted to raise $15,000.

想籌集15000元。

Raised $75,000.

籌集了75000美元。

Pandora.

潘多拉

And at the center of all these is the artist with a different

而在這一切的中心，是具有不同的藝術家。

kind of leverage point than the artist had before recorded

比藝人在錄製之前的槓桿點。

music hit the skids.

音樂打滑。

Because in the recorded music, in the old model, if you were

因為在錄製的音樂中，在舊的模式下，如果你是... ...

a really, really superstar artist, you might generate 20%

一個真正的，真正的超級明星藝術家，你可能會產生20％的收入

of the revenue that was created from

所創造的收入中的

selling your albums.

銷售你的專輯。

And today, in a lot of these opportunities, the artist is

而今天，在很多這樣的機會中，藝術家是

much more the partner.

多的夥伴。