Rob's in here and daily of facts.

Welcome to this week's Session of Indices in commodities.

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Thank you very much.

We will now move on to the risk disclaimer.

Give yourself about 10 seconds, and then we shall move on.

Okay, here we go.

Here we go.

Ah, Gold.

Gold.

We will.

Ah, We'll circle back around to cold goals.

Certainly interesting, but ah, looking at?

Yes.

Well, look at the overnight, Uh, the future's We had some further flare up.

I will.

I'll use the word flare up.

I don't know how which we've escalated yet just yet, but, um, with the tensions in the Middle East, Iran, what have you?

Um when I went to bed last night, the Dow futures were pretty much at their lows.

Uh, S and P's down 40 some handles, Obviously.

Since then, we've recovered.

In fact, I think probably minutes after I went to bed, we had made an overnight low or right around there.

So ah, woke up and you were unchanged.

And it actually didn't really surprise me all that much.

Uh, I texted one of my friends.

Ah, you know, I said, uh, these air not the types of catalyst that I'd like to see for volatility for couple of reasons.

Of course.

One we don't like to see any kind of Ah, yeah, geopolitical risk or not or not.

Great reasons to have.

Ah, catalyst for markets moving, obviously.

Um, but over two Was that there?

They have a tendency to, ah, to be somewhat short lived.

And, uh so, you know, I wasn't really surprised when I saw that we were winter back it on changing the, uh, the futures and things like dollar yen had come back to the zero line.

What have you, Um, but anyways, we we ah, we had a nice rebound.

And so when I look at the cash and disease, which is what we look at a lot of times, um, it was actually highlighting that red I had that red bar in there.

Uh, the red box was actually highlighting an extreme from, ah, the 200 day that we had not seen since.

Ah, back over here.

So it was kinda highlighting that the market was overbought and, uh, that we were due for a pullback or a digestion period And that's kind of what we've seen so far.

But, you know, looking at the cash in the index right now looking where the futures are, we're gonna open.

If you didn't, you were paying attention or a few.

You know, you don't look at the markets.

Ah, like most of us.

D'oh!

Ah, a or the ah, it's gonna look like the market was, like unchanged.

It's an uneventful night.

Ah, open right.

The middle of the range and And all is all is well.

Ah, but ah, we did have that that reversal on And, uh, I think that in general we're looking at we're just in a very, uh we're in a very strong market.

So it's also gonna take a lot of things to, ah, sales going that, uh and Chandra, uh, I think that it's gonna take a lot to get.

The markets were really ah to sell off.

Ah, you know, it's It's definitely It's kind of like, uh, it's like holding a beach ball underwater right now when it comes to stocks, if you ever try to do that with a beach ball, you know, it's all very easy to d'oh.

Ah, so holding a beach ball underwater is kind of the analogy.

I like to use one when stocks just are just pressing on, pressing on the offer the whole time on with that in mind, you know, I don't is there isn't any.

We're just trading higher, right?

We're not.

There's not any resistance.

There's Ah, you know where I think that, you know, we're certainly extended.

Ah, but we've We've worked off some of that since the last couple of days of the year 2019.

Ah, we worked off some of that and, uh, you know, certainly.

Now, as we saw, we had that over.

I know, Blip, if you will.

Ah, where where the futures were getting hammered.

But then they've come back.

So, uh, I think that right now we're still looking at we're still looking at Ah ah, bullish environment.

Trying to find the top is, uh, not something that's in my wheelhouse.

And, uh, you know, I've said that before.

It could be very, very difficult to Ah, you're better off.

Just waiting for some good price action could break in the market That, uh, doesn't recover immediately.

Look, over here, we had a decent break.

But then immediately, we started recovering.

You know, that's that's something that ah, you know, indicates obviously strength.

So until we get something where you know, we have a break in the market doesn't want to come right back.

You know, I think it's it's gonna be a short sea to be, uh, isolated to the entered a time frame.

And and, uh, you know, longs R r right now, just continuing while the risk is rising just like anything, the higher it goes, the faster it goes, the risk rises that you're gonna have some kind of reaction.

That's gonna be a setback.

Um, longs are still ah are still implying there's still a favorable, uh, direction now, looking at resistance, we do have one line.

That was interesting.

We pulled off just just right off of it.

Um, I had actually try had this drawn in, ah, pre holiday.

And the, uh, them sure enough, we and it pulling right off of it.

So it's It's a very firm, uh, lines of back to the dow.

You've got the top here.

Top top.

What's nice about this one is, then you have, uh, three connecting lows as well on the exact parallel.

So you've got a really, really strong channel there, Uh, broadly speaking, and right now we're obviously up against the top of it.

But any time you're you're running with the, uh, with the trend and you've got some kind of topside trendline.

Ah, as you do here, it's viewed as a lesser form of resistance, and this is as a form of support.

So what?

You'll run into him going into the direction you know you could.

Well, ah, a lot of times could happen is you'll just see, maybe they're up horizontal move, sort of what we're seeing now, or even a grind, then eventually break on through.

So I think that Ah, right now, the kind of take off a couple of these things because the visuals could get a little distracting When you when you have other lines running around on your chart, your attention if you like, May ah, your attention gets a little well deterred.

Ah, but looking at this, we have trendline coming up from October.

This would be if we ran into this so little morgan consolidation or if we even just dipsy do down a little bit.

This could offer a good level of support to, ah, take advantage of Ah, in terms of, you know, maybe jump on board the trend and, uh, you know, having another pop to the upside again, uh, looking at the downside, you know, we're gonna have to have that strong break.

We're going to break that trendline.

We've got a lot of support down in here.

It's just generally, you know, there's there's just ah, you know, the tide's running with the bulls, you know?

So it's don't you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see which way the trend is.

Uh, heading right now.

Um, get rid of this.

Let me get rid of that too.

Drawing tools all over the place.

So what we had was again, it was highlighting the extreme from the 200 day, uh and then way we got to it was like, I don't always close toe like 2.7.

It's like 2.77 standard deviations, which was only like we only had a couple of times in the last five years.

Very extreme stuff.

So we're definitely in that area where, you know ah, digestion.

period.

Ah is is in the cards, but generally digestion period isn't a digestion period in a bullish market, is is kind of a It's a tough short.

Even in the short term, it's a little easier to tryto scoop up those those weak spots.

Ah, again, going with the trend tempting a downtrend.

If you get those consolidations, they're going to get a little rally upto resistance.

And what have you, uh, you know, it's it's not a bad idea to ah, look at those is his shorts, as opposed to trying to buy against the trend, because at some point, you know if the trend is still gonna maintain and you have to get the better for the doubt that it will.

If you get a range and you're buying towards the bottom of the range and an uptrend, you're more likely at some point maybe even catch a break out to the upside.

Ah, here's that same trend line that we were just looking at, You know, we gotta go channel hair that's developing, Uh, you know, the NASDAQ 100.

Uh, So again, looking at this, you know, it wouldn't be a bad thing to see something like this.

This is kinda, um What I envision is being a it's kind of an opportune set up.

Obviously, it still needs more work to get to that point.

But trading is about finding finding good spots, right?

Picking your spots, uh, strategically and wisely.

And, uh, looking at these a couple of these charts, we do have some points to be able to do such We just may have to be a little patient on order for us to get to that point.

Uh, now moving over to Europe, this looking at the dax the Dax came down to I mean, you can pretty much tidy lows right together.

Ah, so very, very precise stuff there.

You've got the low from August.

You've got the low from October.

Then you've got that reversal low just from the other day, right?

That's Ah, what?

Monday.

So you've got some pretty nice support.

You've got some support right there.

She had a little confluence.

We had a nice win.

A nice level to ah, turn off oven.

So as long as we stay above here, you know, the better for the doubt is is that this is gonna turn it.

Okay, Solid ation.

That's gonna lead.

Maybe back to this all time high and butter.

Ah, that was created here in January 2018 almost two years ago.

Right?

Was this we have Ah, it's second birthday here.

Coming up.

Uh, well, in two weeks from today, I think, Uh, so right now, trading bias, we're in a range.

But again, as I was kind of saying before about you've gotta rub trend, it's it's easier typically to buy.

Ah, on the down swings in a consolidation of congestion phase in an uptrend that it is to try to shore because at some point again, if the trend is going to reassert itself And like I said before, you have to give it that battle for the doubt that it will.

Ah, Then it will have a pop on through.

And I think that right now there's a lot of reasonably that that'll be the case.

Now, if we do break this trend line, we sneak below it.

That doesn't necessarily Warren a short Ah, look, I because you could break trendlines.

And in fact, if you want to draw from the clothes here, he wouldn't do it close the clothes.

You could actually make the argument.

The trend line is over there now.

No, you know what did me to do that?

Let's Let's hang on a second.

I just want the But this.

Excuse me.

Well, um, I get sick, but having a little tickle in the throat that time of the year?

Uh, hopefully not, but ah, if we So here's this is this is again one of those rules that you have been talking about a lot the last few months and some of you have, uh, have indeed, ah, picked up on it.

And ah, it's one that I think it is very helpful for confirming things like trendlines.

There's always that question.

Where do you draw the trend line and and in theory, in both of these air correct ways to draw this trend line, Obviously they have different term points.

Ah, which is where the confusion comes in on a train line.

So with that said, uh, that's why I like to use within the confines of that trend and that those trendlines I like to use the swing low in this case because we're looking at the upside.

I like to use the swing well was the as a reference point.

Vice versa.

If it was a downtrend, using a swing hires a reference point of resistance.

So with that said, you know, I want to see I want to see the trend line break and see the low.

Ah, within this within this congestion get broken.

So you'd be looking at a 12 86.

If you did that, then you'd be below both trendlines, you know?

So it would be basically there wouldn't be any Any question is the Oh, you know what?

Maybe the trend lines of drawing like this Maybe the term lines like that.

Uh, if you use a low in there, it's like, OK, the trend line is broken no matter how I draw it.

And we've also got a price level in there.

So just something to think about, um, with respect to that, you know, I guess that we've been talking about I feel like I've been mentioning it every week for the last two or three months.

What?

It's It's one of those rules that has really helped me a lot.

Um, because there's obviously a lot of subjectivity involved in and how you, uh, draw in some of your levels and lines, especially trendlines because of their angled.

And things aren't perfect.

Uh, you don't usually get situations like this.

I mean, it's it's the exception as opposed to the rule.