Name: 雷-達利歐認為2020年之前經濟衰退的可能性為25%。 (Ray Dalio Sees 25% Chance of Recession Through 2020)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:13:29.000Z
Duration: 1 min 52 s
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情態助動詞 B1

you are seen as somebody who has said there might be a chance of a recession at some point.

Do you see any chance of a recession in 2019 or 2020?

情態副詞

I think that it's probably a 25% chance in each of those years, probably of a recession.

Um, I think the important thing is Thio I'm big on principles, right?

So I think that it's important to understand how the economic machine works.

And so when I'm looking at that, I want to maybe take a few minutes and get into the important things that are pertain to a recession cause a recession.

You know, whether you is two negative quarters of GDP and we're gonna be hovering, I think fairly close to that level.

And there's a certain variation around it.

But the bigger things are a combination of the absence of effectiveness of central bank policies.

So I hope we can talk about those together with wealth gap, large wealth gap.

So when the next downturn comes, what that will look like socially, politically and so on, Um, the elections, which is a issue between let's say, capitalists and Socialists or the rich and the poor, and then the emergence of China and in relationship to the United States.

Those four factors are factors that have not existed since the thirties.

 I think they're unique, and so when we get into the question of the recession, I think it's how that will affect those other things and those things affect it. 