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CHARLES: WELL KNOW THE MARKET
TOOK A MAJOR BLOW LAST WEEK.
SO FAR THIS WEEK WE'VE BEEN IN
THE GREEN.
WE'RE FINDING WAYS TO RALLY EVEN
INTO THE CLOSE.
NOW WE CAN ACTUALLY SEE THIS
TREND PICK UP, BUT WILL IT GO
THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR?
JOINING ME TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL,
JEFF SAUT, CHIEF INVESTMENT
STRATEGIST FOR RAYMOND JAMES.
JEFF, I CONSIDER YOU ONE OF THE
BEST IN THE BASE.
MAKE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON?
LIKE INVESTOR OF LAST WEEK.
PEOPLE ARE SORT OF NERVOUS EVEN
THOUGH WE'RE UP?
>> OUR SHORT TERM PROPRIETARY
MODEL REGISTERED A SELL SIGNAL
ON OCTOBER 2nd.
WE WROTE ABOUT IT.
IF YOU HAVE SPECULATIVE TRADING
POSITIONS ON, YOU SHOULD SELL.
WE ACTUALLY IDENTIFIED THE 2603
LOW ON OCTOBER 29th.
SAID S&P WOULD RALLY BACK TO
2800, 2820.
NOT GET THROUGH THERE, COME BACK
DOWN, MAKE A SECONDARY LOW BELOW
THE OCTOBER 29th LOW.
WE THINK YOU DID LAST WEEK.
WE SAID YOU SHOULD BUY THIS WE
THINK LOWS ARE IN.
THE STARTING OF THE YEAR-END
RALLY.
CHARLES: I'M CURIOUS ABOUT
OCTOBER 2nd.
THAT WAS THE DAY BEFORE JAY
POWELL'S INFAMOUS SPEECH
TRIGGERED A SELLOFF.
WHAT WEAKNESS DID YOU SEE AND
WHAT WOULD MAKE IT OKAY SIX
WEEKS LATER?
>> WE'RE STILL IN A SECULAR BULL
MARKET, CHARLES.
YOU AND I TALKED ABOUT THIS FOR
A DOZEN YEARS.
SECULAR BULL MARKETS TEND TO
LAST 14 PLUS YEARS.
DEPENDING ON STARTING POINT,
WHETHER OCTOBER OF '08, WHEN
MOST STOCKS BOTTOMED OR MARCH OF
'09 OR WHETHER YOU LOOK OUT
TRADING RANGE NOVEMBER 13th.
YOU DO THE MATH, THIS OUGHT TO
HAVE ANOTHER FIVE, SIX, SEVEN
YEARS, IN IT.
FEW PEOPLE ARE OLD ENOUGH TO
SEEN THE 1949 TO 66, OR 1988 TO
2000 SECULAR BULL.
HISTORIC PRECEDENT.
HISTORIC PRESS DENTS?
>> I THINK TO A LARGE DEGREE,
MAINLY NOISE.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET
INTERNALS, NOT JUST THE INDICES.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE
ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE, IT FAILED
TO CONFIRM THE DOWNSIDE.
MAJORITY OF STOCKS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING.
WE THINK IT WILL CONTINUE ALL
THE WAY, ACTUALLY INTO FEBRUARY.
CHARLES: WE'VE BEEN HAVING SOME
UGLY BREATH.
THE MARKET BREATH, JEFF.
I THINK ONE DAY THIS WEEK WE HAD
FOUR NEW DAYS, AGAINST 1000 NEW
LOWS.
THE BREADTH ITSELF HAS BEEN
PRETTY UGLY.
WILL THAT MAKE A DRAMATIC SHIFT
TO THE UPSIDE?
>> YEAH.
THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE IS NOT
NEARLY AS UGLY AS THE NEW HIGHS
OVER NEW LOWS.
THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HAS
COME IN A LITTLE BIT.
BUT HERE RECENTLY, NOT CONFIRMED
THE DOWNSIDE THAT THE MAJOR
INDICES HAVE INDICATED.
SO, YOU HAVE HAD THIS DIVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE
AND MAJOR INDICES.
CHARLES: RIGHT.
>> THAT IS MAJOR OCOEE
OCCURRENCE.
CHARLES: WHAT ARE TARGETS INTO
YEAR-END AND 2019?
>> 3,000 AND YEAR-END.
CHARLES: WE LEAVE IT THERE.
THAT IS THE BEST THING I'VE
HEARD ALL DAY.
JEFF, I LOVE THAW TEACH US
THINGS BUT YOU ALSO GIVE US
SOLID NUMBERS.
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Will the S&P 500 surpass 3,000 by year’s end?

8 分類 收藏
林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 2 月 26 日
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