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  • >> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS

  • >> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN

  • STEP, ONE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A

  • TAKEN BEFORE WITH CHINA TOWARD A FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL

  • FUTURE OF FAIR AND RECIPROCAL TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE

  • TRADE AS WE SIGN PHASE 1 OF THE HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE

  • HISTORIC TRADE DEAL BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA.

  • UNITED STATES AND CHINA. TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE

  • TOGETHER WE ARE WRITING THE WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC

  • WRONGS OF THE PAST AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR

  • JUSTICE AND SECURITY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND

  • AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES.

  • FAMILIES. PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING

  • PAUL: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH

  • PHASE 1 TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A

  • CHINA ON WEDNESDAY CALLING IT A VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS,

  • VICTORY FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE

  • FARMERS AND FAMILIES, THE TRADE TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER

  • TRUCE WITH BEIJING COMES AFTER 2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT

  • 2-YEAR TARIFF CAMPAIGN THAT IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC

  • IMPOSED SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS

  • COST ON BOTH COUNTRIES AND AS SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE

  • SENATE TOOK UP ANOTHER TRADE AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A

  • AGREEMENT THURSDAY WITH A BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO

  • BIPARTISAN MAJORITY VOTE TO GO SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO

  • SEND THE LONG-AWAITED USMCA TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO

  • PRESIDENT TRUMP'S DESK TO SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR

  • SIGNING, JOHN MURPHY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL

  • VICE PRESIDENT FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE,

  • POLICY, CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE

  • WELCOME BACK, JOHN, GOOD TO SEE YOU.

  • YOU. NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO

  • NOW THAT YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS

  • LOOK AT THE DETAILS OF THIS TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE

  • TRADE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW

  • FINALLY RELEASED THIS WEEK, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS

  • SIGNIFICANT IS THIS IN ITS POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE

  • POTENTIAL TO CHANGE CHINESE TRADING BEHAVIOR?

  • TRADING BEHAVIOR? >> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT

  • >> WE THINK IT'S A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL,

  • STEP FORWARD, FIRST OF ALL, BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING

  • BECAUSE IT IS GOING TO BRING BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF

  • BACK A GREATER MEASURE OF CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC

  • CERTAINTY TO U.S. ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND

  • RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF

  • CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TARIFF INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A

  • INVOLVEMENT, AS RECENTLY AS A MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE

  • MONTH AGO WE WERE LOOKING AT THE PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING

  • PROSPECT OF TARIFFS BEING EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF

  • EXTENDED $100 BILLION PLUS OF CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM

  • CONSUMER GOODS WE IMPORT FROM CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE

  • CHINA, IT'S GOOD TO SEE THAT WE ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR.

  • ARE NOT EXPANDING THE TRADE WAR. AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF

  • AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME OF THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE

  • THE REFORMS THAT ARE IN THE AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE

  • AGREEMENT, WE ARE PLEASED TO SEE SOME THAT WE THINK ARE

  • SOME THAT WE THINK ARE MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW

  • MEANINGFUL, FOR INSTANCE, NEW PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL

  • PROTECTIONS FOR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE

  • PROPERTY, OPENING UP OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE

  • FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, THE CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE

  • CHALLENGE TO SEE HOW THESE ARE IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.

  • IMPLEMENTED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT

  • PAUL: YEAH, THAT'S THE BIG POINT HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A

  • HERE, I'VE BEEN AT THIS FOR A LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T

  • LONG TIME AND, I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS

  • KNOW HOW MANY -- WAS IT 2 YEARS AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE

  • AGO OR 30 WHEN CHINA PROMISE TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL

  • TODAY OPEN UP THE FINANCIAL SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY

  • SERVICE'S MARKET, SO IN A WAY THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT

  • THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND

  • THE DEAL IS THE CONSULTATION AND POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM

  • POTENTIAL ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN

  • THAT IS IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL

  • COMPANY IN CHINA AND YOU FEEL THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND

  • THAT YOU'VE BEEN HARM AND INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR

  • INSTEAD OF GOING TO REGULATOR YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE

  • YOU CAN GO TO U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL

  • REPRESENTATIVE AND THAT WILL TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF

  • TRIGGER A BILATERAL PROCESS OF REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE?

  • REVIEW, DO YOU AGREE? >> ABSOLUTELY.

  • >> ABSOLUTELY. SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE

  • SOME OF THE COMMITMENTS HERE ARE FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN

  • FAMILIAR, WE'VE HEARD THEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL

  • ONE FORM OR ANOTHER IN BILATERAL DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN

  • DIALOGUES FOR YEARS, EVEN DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS

  • DECADES BUT NOW MONTHLY MEETINGS AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER

  • AT THE -- AT THE LEVEL OF LOWER OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE

  • OFFICIALS AND QUARTERLY AT THE DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON

  • DEPUTY MINISTER LEVEL AND SO ON UP TO CHAIN.

  • UP TO CHAIN. PAUL: RIGHT.

  • PAUL: RIGHT. >> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE

  • >> ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS

  • REPRESENTATIVE, HE REGARDS IT AS JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE

  • JOB ONE HERE TO SEE THAT THE CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY,

  • CHANGES TO THE CHINESE ECONOMY, THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR

  • THAT THE CHINESE I THINK FOR THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR

  • THEIR OWN INTEREST, FOR THEIR OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO,

  • OWN RATIONALE ARE COMMITTING TO, THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY

  • THAT THEY'RE ACTUALLY IMPLEMENTED.

  • IMPLEMENTED. >> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I

  • >> I GUESS THE QUESTION THAT I ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2

  • ALSO HAVE WAS IT WORTH THE 2 YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF

  • YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY AND TARIFF IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR

  • IMPOSITION, SOME SOME OF THE TAR ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT

  • ARE STILL GOING TO BE ON, WAS IT WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY?

  • WORTH THE PRICE ECONOMICALLY? >> I THINK THAT THAT'S A

  • >> I THINK THAT THAT'S A DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER.

  • DIFFICULT QUESTION TO ANSWER. AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON

  • AS YOU SAY TARIFFS ON $350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM

  • $350 BILLION ON IMPORT FROM CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST

  • CHINA ARE STILL THERE, THE COST HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH

  • HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL TO BOTH ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY

  • ECONOMIES, CHINA'S ECONOMY GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY

  • GROWTH HAS SLOWED PRETTY DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED

  • DRAMATICALLY AND FOR THE UNITED STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS

  • STATES, WE JUST HAVE NEW NUMBERS IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S.

  • IN THAT IN 2019 THE U.S. MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED

  • MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTRACTED BY MORE THAN 1%.

  • BY MORE THAN 1%. AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A

  • AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN IN A RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND

  • RECESSION, THAT'S THE PRICE AND LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE

  • LOOKING FORWARD, WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THESE MEASURES ARE

  • HOW THESE MEASURES ARE IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW,

  • IMPLEMENTED TO SEE, YOU KNOW, THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF

  • THAT WE ARE GOING TO GET PAYOFF FROM THAT.

  • FROM THAT. PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT

  • PAUL: WE SHOULD GET SOME AT LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS

  • LEAST NEAR TERM RELIEF GROWTH AS THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD

  • THAT UNCERTAINTY ADDS I WOULD ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY

  • ASSUME THIS YEAR AND THE ECONOMY BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS

  • BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE BIT, IS THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE?

  • THAT WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE? >> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF

  • >> WE DO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE

  • REASONS THAT WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE

  • ECONOMY TO BE BOUNCING BACK, ONE OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS

  • OF THE DRAGS ON THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS

  • BEEN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART

  • BEEN LOW AND THAT'S BEEN IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT

  • BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP

  • TARIFFS, WE SEE THAT LIFTING UP BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND

  • BECAUSE OF THE CHINA DEAL AND ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA.

  • ALSO BECAUSE OF USMCA. PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT

  • PAUL: YEAH, LET'S TALK ABOUT USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT

  • USMCA BRIEFLY, NICE TO GET THAT FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I

  • FINALLY DONE AND BEHIND US, SO I GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY

  • GUESS YOU GUYS ARE PRETTY HAPPY ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A

  • ABOUT THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND

  • MANAGED TRADE COMPONENT HERE AND WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO

  • WAGED DICTATES FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS

  • INDUSTRY THAT GENERALLY BUSINESS LIKE.

  • LIKE. NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR

  • NET ON NET, BIG IMPROVEMENT OR NOT?

  • NOT? >> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND

  • >> SO FOR MOST BUSINESSES AND MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE

  • MOST SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY THE REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE

  • REALLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT FREE TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS

  • TRADE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR

  • GOING TO CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR 2 YEARS.

  • 2 YEARS. WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS

  • WE HAVE EXCELLENT MARKET ACCESS AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED

  • AND WE HAVE SOME MODERNIZED TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE,

  • TRADE RULES LIKE DIGITAL TRADE, OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND

  • OTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT BEHIND THE BORDER KINDS OF

  • THE BORDER KINDS OF PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED

  • PROTECTIONISM, YOU MENTIONED WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED

  • WITH REGARD TO THE COMPLICATED RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE

  • RULES THAT ARE GOING TO RAISE COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY,

  • COSTS FOR THE AUTO INDUSTRY, NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN

  • NOW, RAISING COSTS FOR AN INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD

  • INDUSTRY ISN'T USUALLY A GOOD WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY

  • WAY TO MAKE MORE GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE.

  • COMPETITIVE. PAUL: RIGHT.

  • PAUL: RIGHT. >> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING

  • >> MOST COMPANIES ARE INDICATING THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN

  • THAT THEY THINK THEY CAN IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST

  • IMPLEMENT WITHOUT TOO MUCH COST BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

  • BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION

  • AS WE GO THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW

  • PHASE, THE QUESTION HOW REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE

  • REGULATIONS IMPLEMENTING WILL BE FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS

  • FRAMED AND WILL BE ON THAT AS WELL.

  • WELL. PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE

  • PAUL: BRIEFLY, JOHN, DO YOU SEE THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR

  • THIS BASICALLY BEING TRADE FOR THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET

  • THE NEXT YEAR UNTIL WE GET THROUGH THE ELECTION?

  • THROUGH THE ELECTION? >> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER,

  • >> I THINK IT'LL BE CALMER, CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING

  • CERTAINLY, AND THERE'S SOMETHING OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND

  • OF A SIGH OF RELIEF GOING UP AND ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO

  • ALSO THE THREAT TO IMPOSE AUTO TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS

  • TARIFFS SEEM TO HAVE EXPIRED AS THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE

  • THE ADMINISTRATION PASSED THE DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR

  • DEADLINE, SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE

  • A CHANCE TO CONSOLIDATE THE GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE

  • GAINS WHERE THEY EXIST AND MOVE FORWARD IN THE YEAR AHEAD.

>> TODAY WE TAKE A MOMENTOUS

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B1 中級

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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