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Oh, there's a lot of it.
譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Melody Tang
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This is seaweed.
喔,有好多。
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It's pretty humble stuff.
這是海草。
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But it does have some remarkable qualities.
它是...它是很不起眼的東西。
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For one, it grows really fast.
但它也有著很驚人的特質。
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So the carbon that is part of that seaweed,
比如,它成長的速度非常快。
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just a few weeks ago,
所以,幾週前,
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was floating in the atmosphere as atmospheric CO2,
本來還屬於海草一部分的碳,
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driving all the adverse consequences of climate change.
已經飄入空氣中, 成為大氣二氧化碳,
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For the moment, it's locked safely away in the seaweed,
促成各種有害的氣候變遷後果。
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but when that seaweed rots --
目前,它還被安全地關在海草中,
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and by the smell of it, it's not far away --
但當海草腐爛時——
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when it rots, that CO2 will be released back to the atmosphere.
根據聞起來的味道, 也應該快腐爛了——
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Wouldn't it be fantastic if we could find a way
當海草腐爛時,二氧化碳 就會被釋放回到大氣中。
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of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,
大家應該都非常希望, 我們能夠找到一種方法,
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and thereby significantly contributing to solving the climate problem?
將二氧化碳長期關在海草中,
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What I'm talking about here is drawdown.
因而對解決氣候問題 有顯著的貢獻吧?
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It's now become the other half of the climate challenge.
我在這裡要談的是減量。
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And that's because we have delayed so long,
它現在已經變成 氣候挑戰的另一半了。
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in terms of addressing climate change,
那是因為在處理氣候變遷上,
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that we now have to do two very big and very difficult things at once.
我們已拖延了太久了,
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We have to cut our emissions and clean our energy supply
造成我們現在一次要面對 兩件非常非常困難的大事。
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at the same time that we draw significant volumes
我們得要削減排放, 以及使能量供應更乾淨,
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of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
同時,我們也得要除去 大氣中大量的二氧化碳。
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If we don't do that, about 25 percent of the CO2 we put in the air
如果我們不這麼做,我們排放到 大氣中的二氧化碳大約有 25%
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will remain there, by human standards, forever.
會留在大氣中,以人類標準來說, 會持續到永遠。
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So we have to act.
所以我們得馬上行動。
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This is really a new phase in addressing the climate crisis
現在是處理氣候危機的一個新階段,
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and it demands new thinking.
需要新思維。
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So, ideas like carbon offsets really don't make sense
所以,「碳補償」這種想法
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in the modern era.
在現代是說不通的。
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You know, when you offset something,
當你要做補償時,你會說:
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you say, "I'll permit myself to put some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,
「我容許我自己放 一些溫室氣體到大氣中,
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but then I'll offset it by drawing it down."
然後我會減量做為補償。」
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When you've got to both cut your emissions
當你同時要削減你的排放,
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and draw down CO2,
和減少既有二氧化碳時,
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that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.
那種思維就不再合理了。
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And when we're talking about drawdown,
當我們談減量時,
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we're talking about putting large volumes of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,
我們談的是將非常大量的 溫室氣體,特別是二氧化碳,
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out of circulation.
從大氣循環中除去。
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And to do that, we need a carbon price.
若要做到這一點,就需要碳價。
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We need a significant price that we'll pay for that service
針對這個讓大家受益的服務,
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that we'll all benefit from.
我們需要訂高價。
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We've made almost no progress so far
在另一半的氣候挑戰上,
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with the second half of the climate challenge.
我們幾乎沒有進展。
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It's not on most people's radar.
大部分人沒有意識到它。
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And, you know, I must say, at times, I hear people saying,
而且,我必須說, 有時,我聽見人們說:
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"I've lost hope that we can do anything about the climate crisis."
「我失去希望了,我不認為 我們能解決氣候危機。」
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And look, I've had my sleepless nights too, I can tell you.
我可以告訴各位, 我也有睡不著的夜晚。
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But I'm here today as an ambassador for this humble weed, seaweed.
但,今天我是代表 這個不起眼的海草來到這裡。
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I think it has the potential
我真心認為它有潛力
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to be a big part of addressing the challenge of climate change
在處理氣候變遷的挑戰上, 及在我們的未來中,
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and a big part of our future.
扮演一個很重要的角色。
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Now, what the scientists are telling us we need to do over the next 80-odd years
科學家告訴我們,在這世紀結束前 剩下這八十多年間,
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to the end of this century,
我們必須要做的是
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is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions
每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放,
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by three percent every year,
每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放。
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and draw three gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere every year.
另外,每年也要從大氣中移除 三十億噸的二氧化碳。
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Those numbers are so large that they baffle us.
這些數字太大了, 讓我們覺得不知所措。
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But that's what the scientists tell us we need to do.
但這就是科學家說我們得要做的。
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I really hate showing this graph,
我真的很不想放出這張圖,
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but I'm sorry, I have to do it.
但,很抱歉,我必須這麼做。
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It is very eloquent in terms of telling the story
這張圖非常有說服力地說出了
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of my personal failure
我個人失敗的故事,
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in terms of all the advocacy I've done in climate change work
說明我在氣候變遷工作上 做的所有倡導都失敗了,
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and in fact, our collective failure to address climate change.
事實上,我們大家在處理 氣候變遷上都失敗了。
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You can see our trajectory there
在這裡可以看到我們的軌道,
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in terms of warming and greenhouse gas concentrations.
它代表的是暖化及溫室氣體濃度。
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You can see all of the great scientific announcements that we've made,
在圖上可以看到我們過去 所有的重大科學宣佈,
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saying how much danger we face with climate change.
指出我們面臨的 氣候變遷有多危險。
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You can see the political meetings.
各位可以看到政治會議。
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None of it has changed the trajectory.
以上這些都沒能讓軌道改變。
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And this is why we need new thinking,
這就是為什麼我們需要新思維。
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we need a new approach.
我們需要新方法。
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So how might we go about drawing down greenhouse gases at a large scale?
所以,我們要如何大規模地 將溫室氣體減量?
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There's really only two ways of doing it,
其實只有兩種方式,
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and I've done a very deep dive into drawdown.
我對於減量已經做過 很深入的研究。
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And I'll preempt my --
讓我先——
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And I would say this stuff comes up smelling like roses at the end of the day.
我認為,最終它是真的很可行的。
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It does, it's one of the best options,
它確實是最好的選項之一,
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but there are many, many possibilities.
但,還有很多很多的可能性。
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There are chemical pathways and biological pathways.
有化學途徑,有生物途徑。
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So two ways, really, of getting the job done.
所以,有兩個方法可以搞定。
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The biological pathways are fantastic
生物途徑很棒,
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because the energy source that's needed to drive them, the sun,
因為這個途徑需要用的能量來源
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is effectively free.
來自太陽,是免費的。
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We use the sun to drive photosynthesis in plants,
我們用太陽來促進 植物的光合作用,
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break apart that CO2 and capture the carbon.
來分解二氧化碳, 以及捕捉分解出的碳。
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There are also chemical pathways.
另一個是化學途徑。
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They sound ominous, but actually, they're not bad at all.
這個途徑聽起來有威脅性, 但其實一點也不。
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The difficulty they face is that we have to actually pay
用這個途徑的困難之處在於
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for the energy that's required to do the job
它們需要用的能源是要花錢的,
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or pay to facilitate that energy.
或促成這種能源產生是要花錢的。
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Direct air capture is a great example of a chemical pathway,
化學途徑有個很好的例子: 「直接空氣捕獲」,
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and people are using that right now to take CO2 out of the atmosphere
現在就有人用它來除去 大氣中的二氧化碳,
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and manufacture biofuels or manufacture plastics.
用來製造生物燃料或製造塑膠。
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Great progress is being made,
目前已有很大的進步,
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but it will be many decades
但仍然要數十年,
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before those chemical pathways are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.
那些化學途徑才能做到 每年減少十億噸二氧化碳。
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The biological pathways offer us a lot more hope, I think,
我認為,短期來看,
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in the short term.
生物途徑給我們更大的希望。
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You've probably heard about reforestation, planting trees,
各位可能都聽過植樹造林、種樹,
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as a solution to the climate problem.
作為解決氣候問題的方法之一。
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You know, it's a fair question:
我來問一個合理的問題:
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Can we plant our way out of this problem by using trees?
我們可以用樹木 把這個問題給「種」掉嗎?
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I'm skeptical about that for a number of reasons.
我抱持懷疑,原因有好幾個。
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One is just the scale of the problem.
第一就是這個問題的嚴重性。
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All trees start as seeds, little tiny things,
所有的樹木一開始 都是種子,非常小的東西。
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and it's many decades before they've reached
要完全發揮出它們捕捉碳的潛能,
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their full carbon-capture potential.
需要數十年的時間。
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And secondly,
第二,各位看看陸地表面, 已經被大量利用。
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if you look at the land surface, you see that it's so heavily utilized.
我們從陸地表面取得食物, 取得林木產品,
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We get our food from it, we get our forestry products from it,
生物多樣性保護、 水,以及所有其他的運用。
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biodiversity protection and water and everything else.
期望我們能找到足夠空間 來處理這個問題,
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To expect that we'll find enough space to deal with this problem,
依我所見,是不切實際的。
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I think is going to be quite problematic.
但,如果我們去近海看看,
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But if we look offshore,
我們可在既有的產業中 找到一個解決方案,
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wee see a solution where there's already an existing industry,
而且它有很清楚的未來方向。
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and where there's a clearer way forward.
地球表面約 70% 被海洋覆蓋。
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The oceans cover about 70 percent of our planet.
在調節我們的氣候上, 海洋扮演了很重要的角色。
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They play a really big role in regulating our climate,
如果我們能增加 海洋中的海草生長,
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and if we can enhance the growth of seaweed in them,
我想,我們就能利用它們 來開發出能改變氣候的作物。
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we can use them, I think, to develop a climate-altering crop.
海草的種類非常多,
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There are so many different kinds of seaweed,
海草的基因多樣性非常驚人, 而且它的歷史悠久;
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there's unbelievable genetic diversity in seaweed,
它們是最早的有演化的 多細胞生物之一。
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and they're very ancient;
現在有人將幾種特別的海草 用在特定用途上,
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they were some of the first multicellular organisms ever to evolve.
比如開發很高品質的藥品。
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People are using special kinds of seaweed now
你也可以拿海草來做海草浴,
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for particular purposes,
聽說對皮膚有益;
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like developing very high-quality pharmaceutical products.
我無法保證這一點, 但你可以試。
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But you can also use seaweed to take a seaweed bath,
海草養殖有個很重要的特點 就是規模擴展性。
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it's supposed to be good for your skin;
如果我們能用 9% 的全球海洋
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I can't testify to that, but you can do it.
來做海草養殖場,
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The scalability is the big thing about seaweed farming.
它能減少的所有溫室氣體量,
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You know, if we could cover nine percent of the world's ocean
等同於我們一整年釋出的量, 超過五百億噸。
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in seaweed farms,
當我初次讀到這項資訊時, 我覺得太棒了,
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we could draw down the equivalent of all of the greenhouse gases
但我想最好算一下 全球海洋的 9% 是多大。
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we put up in any one year,
結果是約 4.5 個澳洲,
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more than 50 gigatons.
我目前住的地方的大小。
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Now, I thought that was fantastic when I first read it,
目前我們離這個目標值有多遠呢?
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but I thought I'd better calculate how big nine percent of the world's oceans is.
現在我們目前有多少個 海洋中的海草養殖場呢?
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It turns out, it's about four and a half Australias,
零。
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the place I live in.
但我們確實有些樣板, 所以還是有希望的。
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And how close are we to that at the moment?
這張小圖是一個目前正在 建造中的海草養殖場,
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How many ocean-going seaweed farms do we actually have out there?
圖中呈現出一些 關於海草的有趣資訊。
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Zero.
各位可以看到,海草在海面下 25 公尺的架上生長。
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But we do have some prototypes, and therein lies some hope.
它和各位在陸地上 看到的東西很不一樣。
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This little drawing here of a seaweed farm that's currently under construction
原因是,你也知道的, 海草和樹木不同,
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tells you some very interesting things about seaweed.
它沒有無生產力的部分,
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You can see the seaweed growing on that rack,
比如根、樹幹、樹枝和樹皮。
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25 meters down in the ocean there.
海草整體都可以行光合作用,
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It's really different from anything you see on land.
所以它生長很快。 海草每天能成長一公尺。
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And the reason being that, you know, seaweed is not like trees,
我們如何將碳隔離出來?
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it doesn't have nonproductive parts
這也和陸地上的做法很不同。
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like roots and trunks and branches and bark.
你只要做一件事, 就是把海草切斷——
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The whole of the plant is pretty much photosynthetic,
讓它飄向海洋深處,
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so it grows fast.
一旦到了一公里深,
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Seaweed can grow a meter a day.
海草中的碳就會脫離大氣系統,
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And how do we sequester the carbon?
數世紀或千年之久。
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Again, it's very different from on land.
如果種植的是森林,
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All you need to do is cut that seaweed off --
你就得擔心 森林大火、蟲害等等,
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drifts into the ocean abyss,
會釋放除碳來。
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Once it's down a kilometer,
不過,這種海草養殖的關鍵在於
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the carbon in that seaweed is effectively out of the atmospheric system
一根向下深入海中的小管子。
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for centuries or millennia.
基本上,海洋中部 就是一個浩瀚的生物沙漠。
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Whereas if you plant a forest,
那裡沒有養分, 很久以前就用光了。
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you've got to worry about forest fires, bugs, etc.,
但,再下去五百公尺,
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releasing that carbon.
就有清涼、營養豐富的水。
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The key to this farm, though,
只需要一點乾淨的,可再生能源,
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is that little pipe going down into the depths.
就可以把這些水向上抽,
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You know, the mid-ocean is basically a vast biological desert.
用水中的營養來灌溉海草作物。
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There's no nutrients there that were used up long ago.
我認為這有很多益處。
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But just 500 meters down,
它將海洋中部的生物沙漠
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there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.
改變成有生產力的, 甚至能拯救地球的解決方案。
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And with just a little bit of clean, renewable energy,
所以,這有可能出錯嗎?
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you can pump that water up
嗯,這種規模的任何事物,
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and use the nutrients in it to irrigate your seaweed crop.
涉及到全球性規模的干預。
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So I think this really has so many benefits.
我們得要非常小心。
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It's changing a biological desert,
我認為,那些發臭的海草堆,
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the mid-ocean,
其實可能還算是最小的問題。
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into a productive, maybe even planet-saving solution.
有其他未預見的事情會發生。
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So what could go wrong?
每當談到這點, 我最擔心的其中一件事,
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Well, anything we're talking about at this scale
就是深海生物多樣性的命運。
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involves a planetary-scale intervention.
如果我們把數十億噸 海草丟入深海中,
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And we have to be very careful.
我們會影響到下面的生命。
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I think that piles of stinking seaweed
好消息是,我們知道
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are probably going to be the least of our problems.
在暴風雨之後, 很多海草已經沉到了深海中,
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There's other unforeseen things that will happen.
或通過海底峽谷。
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One of the things that really worries me, when I talk about this,
所以我們談的 這個過程並不是新的;
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is the fate of biodiversity in the deep ocean.
我們談的是增強大自然的過程。
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If we are putting gigatons of seaweed into the deep ocean,
我們會邊做邊學。
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we're affecting life down there.
可能這些海洋裡的海草養殖場 必須要是活動式的,
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The good news is that we know
才能把海草分送到 廣大海洋的各處,
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that a lot of seaweed already reaches the deep ocean,
而不是在單一地點 創造出一個巨大的海草堆。
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after storms or through submarine canyons.
我們可能會需要把海草燒焦——
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So we're not talking about a novel process here;
以產生出一種惰性的礦物性生物炭,
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we are talking about enhancing a natural process.
然後再把它送到海洋深處。
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And we'll learn as we go.
在尚未開始這過程之前不會知道,
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I mean, it may be that these ocean-going seaweed farms will need to be mobile,
我們得要邊做邊學。
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to distribute the seaweed across vast areas of the ocean,
我只是想要帶大家看看 現代海草養殖。
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rather than creating a big stinking pile in one place.
它是個大事業——
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It may be that we'll need to char the seaweed --
每年六十億美金的事業。
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so create a sort of an inert, mineral biochar
南韓近海的海草養殖場——
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before we dispatch it into the deep.
它們很巨大,從太空中可以看見。
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We won't know until we start the process,
漸漸地,它們不再 只是海草養殖場。
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and we will learn effectively by doing.
人們在這些地方做的是永續栽培。
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I just want to take you to contemporary seaweed farming.
要做海洋永續栽培,
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It's a big business --
就要同時養殖魚類、 甲殼類,和海草。
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it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.
它能運作得這麼順利的原因
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These seaweed farms off South Korea --
是因為海草會讓海水的酸性下降。
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you can see them from space, they are huge.
提供了一個理想的環境, 讓海中的蛋白質生長。
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And they're increasingly not just seaweed farms.
如果我們能把永續栽培 擴展到全球海洋的 9%,
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What people are doing in places like this is something called ocean permaculture.
我們就能以魚類和甲殼類的形式, 產生出足夠的蛋白質,
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And in ocean permaculture,
每年供應每人兩百公斤的 高品質蛋白質
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you grow fish, shellfish and seaweed all together.
給一百億人口。
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And the reason it works so well
所以,這個解決方案有多種用途。
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is that the seaweed makes the seawater less acid.
可以處理氣候變遷, 可以供應食物給世界,
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It provides an ideal environment for growing marine protein.
可以減少海洋酸化。
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If we covered nine percent of the world's oceans
這一切背後需要的經濟會很挑戰。
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in ocean permaculture,
我們得要投資數十億美金 給這些解決方案,
-
we would be producing enough protein in the form of fish and shellfish
還要花上數十年才能 達到十億噸的規模。
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to give every person in a population of 10 billion
我深信這個理想會成真,
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200 kilograms of high-quality protein per year.
因為若我們不把溫室氣體 從空氣中除去,
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So, we've got a multipotent solution here.
它將會一直促成不良的後果。
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We can address climate change, we can feed the world,
我們的城市會被洪水淹沒,
-
we can deacidify the oceans.
我們會喪失食物, 還會有各種內亂。
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The economics of all of this is going to be challenging.
所以,任何有解決方案 可以處理這個問題的人,
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We'll be investing many, many billions of dollars
就擁有珍貴的資產。
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into these solutions,
如我先前解釋的,
-
and they will take decades to get to the gigaton scale.
海洋永續栽培已經 朝向經濟永續性邁進。
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The reason that I'm convinced that this is going to happen
在接下來的三十年內,
-
is that unless we get the gas out of the air,
我們得要從排放碳的經濟
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it is going to keep driving adverse consequences.
轉變為吸收碳的經濟。
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It will flood our cities,
這時間並不長。
-
it will deprive us of food,
但,我們送入大氣中的溫室氣體,
-
it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.
有一半就是在過去三十年間放的。
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So anyone who's got a solution to dealing with this problem
我的主張是,
-
has a valuable asset.
如果我們花三十年 把這些氣體送入大氣,
-
And already, as I've explained,
我們也能在三十年內將它們取出。
-
ocean permaculture is well on the road to being economically sustainable.
如果你懷疑三十年能做什麼,
-
You know, in the next 30 years,
就回想一下 1919 年,
-
we have to go from being a carbon-emitting economy
和 1950 年做比較。
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to a carbon-absorbing economy.
1919 年,在愛丁堡,