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  • Oh, there's a lot of it.

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Melody Tang

  • This is seaweed.

    喔,有好多。

  • It's pretty humble stuff.

    這是海草。

  • But it does have some remarkable qualities.

    它是...它是很不起眼的東西。

  • For one, it grows really fast.

    但它也有著很驚人的特質。

  • So the carbon that is part of that seaweed,

    比如,它成長的速度非常快。

  • just a few weeks ago,

    所以,幾週前,

  • was floating in the atmosphere as atmospheric CO2,

    本來還屬於海草一部分的碳,

  • driving all the adverse consequences of climate change.

    已經飄入空氣中, 成為大氣二氧化碳,

  • For the moment, it's locked safely away in the seaweed,

    促成各種有害的氣候變遷後果。

  • but when that seaweed rots --

    目前,它還被安全地關在海草中,

  • and by the smell of it, it's not far away --

    但當海草腐爛時——

  • when it rots, that CO2 will be released back to the atmosphere.

    根據聞起來的味道, 也應該快腐爛了——

  • Wouldn't it be fantastic if we could find a way

    當海草腐爛時,二氧化碳 就會被釋放回到大氣中。

  • of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,

    大家應該都非常希望, 我們能夠找到一種方法,

  • and thereby significantly contributing to solving the climate problem?

    將二氧化碳長期關在海草中,

  • What I'm talking about here is drawdown.

    因而對解決氣候問題 有顯著的貢獻吧?

  • It's now become the other half of the climate challenge.

    我在這裡要談的是減量。

  • And that's because we have delayed so long,

    它現在已經變成 氣候挑戰的另一半了。

  • in terms of addressing climate change,

    那是因為在處理氣候變遷上,

  • that we now have to do two very big and very difficult things at once.

    我們已拖延了太久了,

  • We have to cut our emissions and clean our energy supply

    造成我們現在一次要面對 兩件非常非常困難的大事。

  • at the same time that we draw significant volumes

    我們得要削減排放, 以及使能量供應更乾淨,

  • of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

    同時,我們也得要除去 大氣中大量的二氧化碳。

  • If we don't do that, about 25 percent of the CO2 we put in the air

    如果我們不這麼做,我們排放到 大氣中的二氧化碳大約有 25%

  • will remain there, by human standards, forever.

    會留在大氣中,以人類標準來說, 會持續到永遠。

  • So we have to act.

    所以我們得馬上行動。

  • This is really a new phase in addressing the climate crisis

    現在是處理氣候危機的一個新階段,

  • and it demands new thinking.

    需要新思維。

  • So, ideas like carbon offsets really don't make sense

    所以,「碳補償」這種想法

  • in the modern era.

    在現代是說不通的。

  • You know, when you offset something,

    當你要做補償時,你會說:

  • you say, "I'll permit myself to put some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,

    「我容許我自己放 一些溫室氣體到大氣中,

  • but then I'll offset it by drawing it down."

    然後我會減量做為補償。」

  • When you've got to both cut your emissions

    當你同時要削減你的排放,

  • and draw down CO2,

    和減少既有二氧化碳時,

  • that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.

    那種思維就不再合理了。

  • And when we're talking about drawdown,

    當我們談減量時,

  • we're talking about putting large volumes of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,

    我們談的是將非常大量的 溫室氣體,特別是二氧化碳,

  • out of circulation.

    從大氣循環中除去。

  • And to do that, we need a carbon price.

    若要做到這一點,就需要碳價。

  • We need a significant price that we'll pay for that service

    針對這個讓大家受益的服務,

  • that we'll all benefit from.

    我們需要訂高價。

  • We've made almost no progress so far

    在另一半的氣候挑戰上,

  • with the second half of the climate challenge.

    我們幾乎沒有進展。

  • It's not on most people's radar.

    大部分人沒有意識到它。

  • And, you know, I must say, at times, I hear people saying,

    而且,我必須說, 有時,我聽見人們說:

  • "I've lost hope that we can do anything about the climate crisis."

    「我失去希望了,我不認為 我們能解決氣候危機。」

  • And look, I've had my sleepless nights too, I can tell you.

    我可以告訴各位, 我也有睡不著的夜晚。

  • But I'm here today as an ambassador for this humble weed, seaweed.

    但,今天我是代表 這個不起眼的海草來到這裡。

  • I think it has the potential

    我真心認為它有潛力

  • to be a big part of addressing the challenge of climate change

    在處理氣候變遷的挑戰上, 及在我們的未來中,

  • and a big part of our future.

    扮演一個很重要的角色。

  • Now, what the scientists are telling us we need to do over the next 80-odd years

    科學家告訴我們,在這世紀結束前 剩下這八十多年間,

  • to the end of this century,

    我們必須要做的是

  • is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions

    每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放,

  • by three percent every year,

    每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放。

  • and draw three gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere every year.

    另外,每年也要從大氣中移除 三十億噸的二氧化碳。

  • Those numbers are so large that they baffle us.

    這些數字太大了, 讓我們覺得不知所措。

  • But that's what the scientists tell us we need to do.

    但這就是科學家說我們得要做的。

  • I really hate showing this graph,

    我真的很不想放出這張圖,

  • but I'm sorry, I have to do it.

    但,很抱歉,我必須這麼做。

  • It is very eloquent in terms of telling the story

    這張圖非常有說服力地說出了

  • of my personal failure

    我個人失敗的故事,

  • in terms of all the advocacy I've done in climate change work

    說明我在氣候變遷工作上 做的所有倡導都失敗了,

  • and in fact, our collective failure to address climate change.

    事實上,我們大家在處理 氣候變遷上都失敗了。

  • You can see our trajectory there

    在這裡可以看到我們的軌道,

  • in terms of warming and greenhouse gas concentrations.

    它代表的是暖化及溫室氣體濃度。

  • You can see all of the great scientific announcements that we've made,

    在圖上可以看到我們過去 所有的重大科學宣佈,

  • saying how much danger we face with climate change.

    指出我們面臨的 氣候變遷有多危險。

  • You can see the political meetings.

    各位可以看到政治會議。

  • None of it has changed the trajectory.

    以上這些都沒能讓軌道改變。

  • And this is why we need new thinking,

    這就是為什麼我們需要新思維。

  • we need a new approach.

    我們需要新方法。

  • So how might we go about drawing down greenhouse gases at a large scale?

    所以,我們要如何大規模地 將溫室氣體減量?

  • There's really only two ways of doing it,

    其實只有兩種方式,

  • and I've done a very deep dive into drawdown.

    我對於減量已經做過 很深入的研究。

  • And I'll preempt my --

    讓我先——

  • And I would say this stuff comes up smelling like roses at the end of the day.

    我認為,最終它是真的很可行的。

  • It does, it's one of the best options,

    它確實是最好的選項之一,

  • but there are many, many possibilities.

    但,還有很多很多的可能性。

  • There are chemical pathways and biological pathways.

    有化學途徑,有生物途徑。

  • So two ways, really, of getting the job done.

    所以,有兩個方法可以搞定。

  • The biological pathways are fantastic

    生物途徑很棒,

  • because the energy source that's needed to drive them, the sun,

    因為這個途徑需要用的能量來源

  • is effectively free.

    來自太陽,是免費的。

  • We use the sun to drive photosynthesis in plants,

    我們用太陽來促進 植物的光合作用,

  • break apart that CO2 and capture the carbon.

    來分解二氧化碳, 以及捕捉分解出的碳。

  • There are also chemical pathways.

    另一個是化學途徑。

  • They sound ominous, but actually, they're not bad at all.

    這個途徑聽起來有威脅性, 但其實一點也不。

  • The difficulty they face is that we have to actually pay

    用這個途徑的困難之處在於

  • for the energy that's required to do the job

    它們需要用的能源是要花錢的,

  • or pay to facilitate that energy.

    或促成這種能源產生是要花錢的。

  • Direct air capture is a great example of a chemical pathway,

    化學途徑有個很好的例子: 「直接空氣捕獲」,

  • and people are using that right now to take CO2 out of the atmosphere

    現在就有人用它來除去 大氣中的二氧化碳,

  • and manufacture biofuels or manufacture plastics.

    用來製造生物燃料或製造塑膠。

  • Great progress is being made,

    目前已有很大的進步,

  • but it will be many decades

    但仍然要數十年,

  • before those chemical pathways are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.

    那些化學途徑才能做到 每年減少十億噸二氧化碳。

  • The biological pathways offer us a lot more hope, I think,

    我認為,短期來看,

  • in the short term.

    生物途徑給我們更大的希望。

  • You've probably heard about reforestation, planting trees,

    各位可能都聽過植樹造林、種樹,

  • as a solution to the climate problem.

    作為解決氣候問題的方法之一。

  • You know, it's a fair question:

    我來問一個合理的問題:

  • Can we plant our way out of this problem by using trees?

    我們可以用樹木 把這個問題給「種」掉嗎?

  • I'm skeptical about that for a number of reasons.

    我抱持懷疑,原因有好幾個。

  • One is just the scale of the problem.

    第一就是這個問題的嚴重性。

  • All trees start as seeds, little tiny things,

    所有的樹木一開始 都是種子,非常小的東西。

  • and it's many decades before they've reached

    要完全發揮出它們捕捉碳的潛能,

  • their full carbon-capture potential.

    需要數十年的時間。

  • And secondly,

    第二,各位看看陸地表面, 已經被大量利用。

  • if you look at the land surface, you see that it's so heavily utilized.

    我們從陸地表面取得食物, 取得林木產品,

  • We get our food from it, we get our forestry products from it,

    生物多樣性保護、 水,以及所有其他的運用。

  • biodiversity protection and water and everything else.

    期望我們能找到足夠空間 來處理這個問題,

  • To expect that we'll find enough space to deal with this problem,

    依我所見,是不切實際的。

  • I think is going to be quite problematic.

    但,如果我們去近海看看,

  • But if we look offshore,

    我們可在既有的產業中 找到一個解決方案,

  • wee see a solution where there's already an existing industry,

    而且它有很清楚的未來方向。

  • and where there's a clearer way forward.

    地球表面約 70% 被海洋覆蓋。

  • The oceans cover about 70 percent of our planet.

    在調節我們的氣候上, 海洋扮演了很重要的角色。

  • They play a really big role in regulating our climate,

    如果我們能增加 海洋中的海草生長,

  • and if we can enhance the growth of seaweed in them,

    我想,我們就能利用它們 來開發出能改變氣候的作物。

  • we can use them, I think, to develop a climate-altering crop.

    海草的種類非常多,

  • There are so many different kinds of seaweed,

    海草的基因多樣性非常驚人, 而且它的歷史悠久;

  • there's unbelievable genetic diversity in seaweed,

    它們是最早的有演化的 多細胞生物之一。

  • and they're very ancient;

    現在有人將幾種特別的海草 用在特定用途上,

  • they were some of the first multicellular organisms ever to evolve.

    比如開發很高品質的藥品。

  • People are using special kinds of seaweed now

    你也可以拿海草來做海草浴,

  • for particular purposes,

    聽說對皮膚有益;

  • like developing very high-quality pharmaceutical products.

    我無法保證這一點, 但你可以試。

  • But you can also use seaweed to take a seaweed bath,

    海草養殖有個很重要的特點 就是規模擴展性。

  • it's supposed to be good for your skin;

    如果我們能用 9% 的全球海洋

  • I can't testify to that, but you can do it.

    來做海草養殖場,

  • The scalability is the big thing about seaweed farming.

    它能減少的所有溫室氣體量,

  • You know, if we could cover nine percent of the world's ocean

    等同於我們一整年釋出的量, 超過五百億噸。

  • in seaweed farms,

    當我初次讀到這項資訊時, 我覺得太棒了,

  • we could draw down the equivalent of all of the greenhouse gases

    但我想最好算一下 全球海洋的 9% 是多大。

  • we put up in any one year,

    結果是約 4.5 個澳洲,

  • more than 50 gigatons.

    我目前住的地方的大小。

  • Now, I thought that was fantastic when I first read it,

    目前我們離這個目標值有多遠呢?

  • but I thought I'd better calculate how big nine percent of the world's oceans is.

    現在我們目前有多少個 海洋中的海草養殖場呢?

  • It turns out, it's about four and a half Australias,

    零。

  • the place I live in.

    但我們確實有些樣板, 所以還是有希望的。

  • And how close are we to that at the moment?

    這張小圖是一個目前正在 建造中的海草養殖場,

  • How many ocean-going seaweed farms do we actually have out there?

    圖中呈現出一些 關於海草的有趣資訊。

  • Zero.

    各位可以看到,海草在海面下 25 公尺的架上生長。

  • But we do have some prototypes, and therein lies some hope.

    它和各位在陸地上 看到的東西很不一樣。

  • This little drawing here of a seaweed farm that's currently under construction

    原因是,你也知道的, 海草和樹木不同,

  • tells you some very interesting things about seaweed.

    它沒有無生產力的部分,

  • You can see the seaweed growing on that rack,

    比如根、樹幹、樹枝和樹皮。

  • 25 meters down in the ocean there.

    海草整體都可以行光合作用,

  • It's really different from anything you see on land.

    所以它生長很快。 海草每天能成長一公尺。

  • And the reason being that, you know, seaweed is not like trees,

    我們如何將碳隔離出來?

  • it doesn't have nonproductive parts

    這也和陸地上的做法很不同。

  • like roots and trunks and branches and bark.

    你只要做一件事, 就是把海草切斷——

  • The whole of the plant is pretty much photosynthetic,

    讓它飄向海洋深處,

  • so it grows fast.

    一旦到了一公里深,

  • Seaweed can grow a meter a day.

    海草中的碳就會脫離大氣系統,

  • And how do we sequester the carbon?

    數世紀或千年之久。

  • Again, it's very different from on land.

    如果種植的是森林,

  • All you need to do is cut that seaweed off --

    你就得擔心 森林大火、蟲害等等,

  • drifts into the ocean abyss,

    會釋放除碳來。

  • Once it's down a kilometer,

    不過,這種海草養殖的關鍵在於

  • the carbon in that seaweed is effectively out of the atmospheric system

    一根向下深入海中的小管子。

  • for centuries or millennia.

    基本上,海洋中部 就是一個浩瀚的生物沙漠。

  • Whereas if you plant a forest,

    那裡沒有養分, 很久以前就用光了。

  • you've got to worry about forest fires, bugs, etc.,

    但,再下去五百公尺,

  • releasing that carbon.

    就有清涼、營養豐富的水。

  • The key to this farm, though,

    只需要一點乾淨的,可再生能源,

  • is that little pipe going down into the depths.

    就可以把這些水向上抽,

  • You know, the mid-ocean is basically a vast biological desert.

    用水中的營養來灌溉海草作物。

  • There's no nutrients there that were used up long ago.

    我認為這有很多益處。

  • But just 500 meters down,

    它將海洋中部的生物沙漠

  • there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.

    改變成有生產力的, 甚至能拯救地球的解決方案。

  • And with just a little bit of clean, renewable energy,

    所以,這有可能出錯嗎?

  • you can pump that water up

    嗯,這種規模的任何事物,

  • and use the nutrients in it to irrigate your seaweed crop.

    涉及到全球性規模的干預。

  • So I think this really has so many benefits.

    我們得要非常小心。

  • It's changing a biological desert,

    我認為,那些發臭的海草堆,

  • the mid-ocean,

    其實可能還算是最小的問題。

  • into a productive, maybe even planet-saving solution.

    有其他未預見的事情會發生。

  • So what could go wrong?

    每當談到這點, 我最擔心的其中一件事,

  • Well, anything we're talking about at this scale

    就是深海生物多樣性的命運。

  • involves a planetary-scale intervention.

    如果我們把數十億噸 海草丟入深海中,

  • And we have to be very careful.

    我們會影響到下面的生命。

  • I think that piles of stinking seaweed

    好消息是,我們知道

  • are probably going to be the least of our problems.

    在暴風雨之後, 很多海草已經沉到了深海中,

  • There's other unforeseen things that will happen.

    或通過海底峽谷。

  • One of the things that really worries me, when I talk about this,

    所以我們談的 這個過程並不是新的;

  • is the fate of biodiversity in the deep ocean.

    我們談的是增強大自然的過程。

  • If we are putting gigatons of seaweed into the deep ocean,

    我們會邊做邊學。

  • we're affecting life down there.

    可能這些海洋裡的海草養殖場 必須要是活動式的,

  • The good news is that we know

    才能把海草分送到 廣大海洋的各處,

  • that a lot of seaweed already reaches the deep ocean,

    而不是在單一地點 創造出一個巨大的海草堆。

  • after storms or through submarine canyons.

    我們可能會需要把海草燒焦——

  • So we're not talking about a novel process here;

    以產生出一種惰性的礦物性生物炭,

  • we are talking about enhancing a natural process.

    然後再把它送到海洋深處。

  • And we'll learn as we go.

    在尚未開始這過程之前不會知道,

  • I mean, it may be that these ocean-going seaweed farms will need to be mobile,

    我們得要邊做邊學。

  • to distribute the seaweed across vast areas of the ocean,

    我只是想要帶大家看看 現代海草養殖。

  • rather than creating a big stinking pile in one place.

    它是個大事業——

  • It may be that we'll need to char the seaweed --

    每年六十億美金的事業。

  • so create a sort of an inert, mineral biochar

    南韓近海的海草養殖場——

  • before we dispatch it into the deep.

    它們很巨大,從太空中可以看見。

  • We won't know until we start the process,

    漸漸地,它們不再 只是海草養殖場。

  • and we will learn effectively by doing.

    人們在這些地方做的是永續栽培。

  • I just want to take you to contemporary seaweed farming.

    要做海洋永續栽培,

  • It's a big business --

    就要同時養殖魚類、 甲殼類,和海草。

  • it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.

    它能運作得這麼順利的原因

  • These seaweed farms off South Korea --

    是因為海草會讓海水的酸性下降。

  • you can see them from space, they are huge.

    提供了一個理想的環境, 讓海中的蛋白質生長。

  • And they're increasingly not just seaweed farms.

    如果我們能把永續栽培 擴展到全球海洋的 9%,

  • What people are doing in places like this is something called ocean permaculture.

    我們就能以魚類和甲殼類的形式, 產生出足夠的蛋白質,

  • And in ocean permaculture,

    每年供應每人兩百公斤的 高品質蛋白質

  • you grow fish, shellfish and seaweed all together.

    給一百億人口。

  • And the reason it works so well

    所以,這個解決方案有多種用途。

  • is that the seaweed makes the seawater less acid.

    可以處理氣候變遷, 可以供應食物給世界,

  • It provides an ideal environment for growing marine protein.

    可以減少海洋酸化。

  • If we covered nine percent of the world's oceans

    這一切背後需要的經濟會很挑戰。

  • in ocean permaculture,

    我們得要投資數十億美金 給這些解決方案,

  • we would be producing enough protein in the form of fish and shellfish

    還要花上數十年才能 達到十億噸的規模。

  • to give every person in a population of 10 billion

    我深信這個理想會成真,

  • 200 kilograms of high-quality protein per year.

    因為若我們不把溫室氣體 從空氣中除去,

  • So, we've got a multipotent solution here.

    它將會一直促成不良的後果。

  • We can address climate change, we can feed the world,

    我們的城市會被洪水淹沒,

  • we can deacidify the oceans.

    我們會喪失食物, 還會有各種內亂。

  • The economics of all of this is going to be challenging.

    所以,任何有解決方案 可以處理這個問題的人,

  • We'll be investing many, many billions of dollars

    就擁有珍貴的資產。

  • into these solutions,

    如我先前解釋的,

  • and they will take decades to get to the gigaton scale.

    海洋永續栽培已經 朝向經濟永續性邁進。

  • The reason that I'm convinced that this is going to happen

    在接下來的三十年內,

  • is that unless we get the gas out of the air,

    我們得要從排放碳的經濟

  • it is going to keep driving adverse consequences.

    轉變為吸收碳的經濟。

  • It will flood our cities,

    這時間並不長。

  • it will deprive us of food,

    但,我們送入大氣中的溫室氣體,

  • it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.

    有一半就是在過去三十年間放的。

  • So anyone who's got a solution to dealing with this problem

    我的主張是,

  • has a valuable asset.

    如果我們花三十年 把這些氣體送入大氣,

  • And already, as I've explained,

    我們也能在三十年內將它們取出。

  • ocean permaculture is well on the road to being economically sustainable.

    如果你懷疑三十年能做什麼,

  • You know, in the next 30 years,

    就回想一下 1919 年,

  • we have to go from being a carbon-emitting economy

    和 1950 年做比較。

  • to a carbon-absorbing economy.

    1919 年,在愛丁堡,