This is seaweed.

喔，有好多。

It's pretty humble stuff.

這是海草。

But it does have some remarkable qualities.

它是...它是很不起眼的東西。

For one, it grows really fast.

但它也有著很驚人的特質。

So the carbon that is part of that seaweed,

比如，它成長的速度非常快。

just a few weeks ago,

所以，幾週前，

was floating in the atmosphere as atmospheric CO2,

本來還屬於海草一部分的碳，

driving all the adverse consequences of climate change.

已經飄入空氣中， 成為大氣二氧化碳，

For the moment, it's locked safely away in the seaweed,

促成各種有害的氣候變遷後果。

but when that seaweed rots --

目前，它還被安全地關在海草中，

and by the smell of it, it's not far away --

但當海草腐爛時——

when it rots, that CO2 will be released back to the atmosphere.

根據聞起來的味道， 也應該快腐爛了——

Wouldn't it be fantastic if we could find a way

當海草腐爛時，二氧化碳 就會被釋放回到大氣中。

of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,

大家應該都非常希望， 我們能夠找到一種方法，

and thereby significantly contributing to solving the climate problem?

將二氧化碳長期關在海草中，

What I'm talking about here is drawdown.

因而對解決氣候問題 有顯著的貢獻吧？

It's now become the other half of the climate challenge.

我在這裡要談的是減量。

And that's because we have delayed so long,

它現在已經變成 氣候挑戰的另一半了。

in terms of addressing climate change,

那是因為在處理氣候變遷上，

that we now have to do two very big and very difficult things at once.

我們已拖延了太久了，

We have to cut our emissions and clean our energy supply

造成我們現在一次要面對 兩件非常非常困難的大事。

at the same time that we draw significant volumes

我們得要削減排放， 以及使能量供應更乾淨，

of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

同時，我們也得要除去 大氣中大量的二氧化碳。

If we don't do that, about 25 percent of the CO2 we put in the air

如果我們不這麼做，我們排放到 大氣中的二氧化碳大約有 25%

will remain there, by human standards, forever.

會留在大氣中，以人類標準來說， 會持續到永遠。

So we have to act.

所以我們得馬上行動。

This is really a new phase in addressing the climate crisis

現在是處理氣候危機的一個新階段，

and it demands new thinking.

需要新思維。

So, ideas like carbon offsets really don't make sense

所以，「碳補償」這種想法

in the modern era.

在現代是說不通的。

You know, when you offset something,

當你要做補償時，你會說：

you say, "I'll permit myself to put some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,

「我容許我自己放 一些溫室氣體到大氣中，

but then I'll offset it by drawing it down."

然後我會減量做為補償。」

When you've got to both cut your emissions

當你同時要削減你的排放，

and draw down CO2,

和減少既有二氧化碳時，

that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.

那種思維就不再合理了。

And when we're talking about drawdown,

當我們談減量時，

we're talking about putting large volumes of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,

我們談的是將非常大量的 溫室氣體，特別是二氧化碳，

out of circulation.

從大氣循環中除去。

And to do that, we need a carbon price.

若要做到這一點，就需要碳價。

We need a significant price that we'll pay for that service

針對這個讓大家受益的服務，

that we'll all benefit from.

我們需要訂高價。

We've made almost no progress so far

在另一半的氣候挑戰上，

with the second half of the climate challenge.

我們幾乎沒有進展。

It's not on most people's radar.

大部分人沒有意識到它。

And, you know, I must say, at times, I hear people saying,

而且，我必須說， 有時，我聽見人們說：

"I've lost hope that we can do anything about the climate crisis."

「我失去希望了，我不認為 我們能解決氣候危機。」

And look, I've had my sleepless nights too, I can tell you.

我可以告訴各位， 我也有睡不著的夜晚。

But I'm here today as an ambassador for this humble weed, seaweed.

但，今天我是代表 這個不起眼的海草來到這裡。

I think it has the potential

我真心認為它有潛力

to be a big part of addressing the challenge of climate change

在處理氣候變遷的挑戰上， 及在我們的未來中，

and a big part of our future.

扮演一個很重要的角色。

Now, what the scientists are telling us we need to do over the next 80-odd years

科學家告訴我們，在這世紀結束前 剩下這八十多年間，

to the end of this century,

我們必須要做的是

is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions

每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放，

by three percent every year,

每年減少 3% 削減溫室氣體排放。

and draw three gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere every year.

另外，每年也要從大氣中移除 三十億噸的二氧化碳。

Those numbers are so large that they baffle us.

這些數字太大了， 讓我們覺得不知所措。

But that's what the scientists tell us we need to do.

但這就是科學家說我們得要做的。

I really hate showing this graph,

我真的很不想放出這張圖，

but I'm sorry, I have to do it.

但，很抱歉，我必須這麼做。

It is very eloquent in terms of telling the story

這張圖非常有說服力地說出了

of my personal failure

我個人失敗的故事，

in terms of all the advocacy I've done in climate change work

說明我在氣候變遷工作上 做的所有倡導都失敗了，

and in fact, our collective failure to address climate change.

事實上，我們大家在處理 氣候變遷上都失敗了。

You can see our trajectory there

在這裡可以看到我們的軌道，

in terms of warming and greenhouse gas concentrations.

它代表的是暖化及溫室氣體濃度。

You can see all of the great scientific announcements that we've made,

在圖上可以看到我們過去 所有的重大科學宣佈，

saying how much danger we face with climate change.

指出我們面臨的 氣候變遷有多危險。

You can see the political meetings.

各位可以看到政治會議。

None of it has changed the trajectory.

以上這些都沒能讓軌道改變。

And this is why we need new thinking,

這就是為什麼我們需要新思維。

we need a new approach.

我們需要新方法。

So how might we go about drawing down greenhouse gases at a large scale?

所以，我們要如何大規模地 將溫室氣體減量？

There's really only two ways of doing it,

其實只有兩種方式，

and I've done a very deep dive into drawdown.

我對於減量已經做過 很深入的研究。

And I'll preempt my --

讓我先——

And I would say this stuff comes up smelling like roses at the end of the day.

我認為，最終它是真的很可行的。

It does, it's one of the best options,

它確實是最好的選項之一，

but there are many, many possibilities.

但，還有很多很多的可能性。

There are chemical pathways and biological pathways.

有化學途徑，有生物途徑。

So two ways, really, of getting the job done.

所以，有兩個方法可以搞定。

The biological pathways are fantastic

生物途徑很棒，

because the energy source that's needed to drive them, the sun,

因為這個途徑需要用的能量來源

is effectively free.

來自太陽，是免費的。

We use the sun to drive photosynthesis in plants,

我們用太陽來促進 植物的光合作用，

break apart that CO2 and capture the carbon.

來分解二氧化碳， 以及捕捉分解出的碳。

There are also chemical pathways.

另一個是化學途徑。

They sound ominous, but actually, they're not bad at all.

這個途徑聽起來有威脅性， 但其實一點也不。

The difficulty they face is that we have to actually pay

用這個途徑的困難之處在於

for the energy that's required to do the job

它們需要用的能源是要花錢的，

or pay to facilitate that energy.

或促成這種能源產生是要花錢的。

Direct air capture is a great example of a chemical pathway,

化學途徑有個很好的例子： 「直接空氣捕獲」，

and people are using that right now to take CO2 out of the atmosphere

現在就有人用它來除去 大氣中的二氧化碳，

and manufacture biofuels or manufacture plastics.

用來製造生物燃料或製造塑膠。

Great progress is being made,

目前已有很大的進步，

but it will be many decades

但仍然要數十年，

before those chemical pathways are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.

那些化學途徑才能做到 每年減少十億噸二氧化碳。

The biological pathways offer us a lot more hope, I think,

我認為，短期來看，

in the short term.

生物途徑給我們更大的希望。

You've probably heard about reforestation, planting trees,

各位可能都聽過植樹造林、種樹，

as a solution to the climate problem.

作為解決氣候問題的方法之一。

You know, it's a fair question:

我來問一個合理的問題：

Can we plant our way out of this problem by using trees?

我們可以用樹木 把這個問題給「種」掉嗎？

I'm skeptical about that for a number of reasons.

我抱持懷疑，原因有好幾個。

One is just the scale of the problem.

第一就是這個問題的嚴重性。

All trees start as seeds, little tiny things,

所有的樹木一開始 都是種子，非常小的東西。

and it's many decades before they've reached

要完全發揮出它們捕捉碳的潛能，

their full carbon-capture potential.

需要數十年的時間。

And secondly,

第二，各位看看陸地表面， 已經被大量利用。

if you look at the land surface, you see that it's so heavily utilized.

我們從陸地表面取得食物， 取得林木產品，

We get our food from it, we get our forestry products from it,

生物多樣性保護、 水，以及所有其他的運用。

biodiversity protection and water and everything else.

期望我們能找到足夠空間 來處理這個問題，

To expect that we'll find enough space to deal with this problem,

依我所見，是不切實際的。

I think is going to be quite problematic.

但，如果我們去近海看看，

But if we look offshore,

我們可在既有的產業中 找到一個解決方案，

wee see a solution where there's already an existing industry,

而且它有很清楚的未來方向。

and where there's a clearer way forward.

地球表面約 70% 被海洋覆蓋。

The oceans cover about 70 percent of our planet.

在調節我們的氣候上， 海洋扮演了很重要的角色。

They play a really big role in regulating our climate,

如果我們能增加 海洋中的海草生長，

and if we can enhance the growth of seaweed in them,

我想，我們就能利用它們 來開發出能改變氣候的作物。

we can use them, I think, to develop a climate-altering crop.

海草的種類非常多，

There are so many different kinds of seaweed,

海草的基因多樣性非常驚人， 而且它的歷史悠久；

there's unbelievable genetic diversity in seaweed,

它們是最早的有演化的 多細胞生物之一。

and they're very ancient;

現在有人將幾種特別的海草 用在特定用途上，

they were some of the first multicellular organisms ever to evolve.

比如開發很高品質的藥品。

People are using special kinds of seaweed now

你也可以拿海草來做海草浴，

for particular purposes,

聽說對皮膚有益；

like developing very high-quality pharmaceutical products.

我無法保證這一點， 但你可以試。

But you can also use seaweed to take a seaweed bath,

海草養殖有個很重要的特點 就是規模擴展性。

it's supposed to be good for your skin;

如果我們能用 9% 的全球海洋

I can't testify to that, but you can do it.

來做海草養殖場，

The scalability is the big thing about seaweed farming.

它能減少的所有溫室氣體量，

You know, if we could cover nine percent of the world's ocean

等同於我們一整年釋出的量， 超過五百億噸。

in seaweed farms,

當我初次讀到這項資訊時， 我覺得太棒了，

we could draw down the equivalent of all of the greenhouse gases

但我想最好算一下 全球海洋的 9% 是多大。

we put up in any one year,

結果是約 4.5 個澳洲，

more than 50 gigatons.

我目前住的地方的大小。

Now, I thought that was fantastic when I first read it,

目前我們離這個目標值有多遠呢？

but I thought I'd better calculate how big nine percent of the world's oceans is.

現在我們目前有多少個 海洋中的海草養殖場呢？

It turns out, it's about four and a half Australias,

零。

the place I live in.

但我們確實有些樣板， 所以還是有希望的。

And how close are we to that at the moment?

這張小圖是一個目前正在 建造中的海草養殖場，

How many ocean-going seaweed farms do we actually have out there?

圖中呈現出一些 關於海草的有趣資訊。

Zero.

各位可以看到，海草在海面下 25 公尺的架上生長。

But we do have some prototypes, and therein lies some hope.

它和各位在陸地上 看到的東西很不一樣。

This little drawing here of a seaweed farm that's currently under construction

原因是，你也知道的， 海草和樹木不同，

tells you some very interesting things about seaweed.

它沒有無生產力的部分，

You can see the seaweed growing on that rack,

比如根、樹幹、樹枝和樹皮。

25 meters down in the ocean there.

海草整體都可以行光合作用，

It's really different from anything you see on land.

所以它生長很快。 海草每天能成長一公尺。

And the reason being that, you know, seaweed is not like trees,

我們如何將碳隔離出來？

it doesn't have nonproductive parts

這也和陸地上的做法很不同。

like roots and trunks and branches and bark.

你只要做一件事， 就是把海草切斷——

The whole of the plant is pretty much photosynthetic,

讓它飄向海洋深處，

so it grows fast.

一旦到了一公里深，

Seaweed can grow a meter a day.

海草中的碳就會脫離大氣系統，

And how do we sequester the carbon?

數世紀或千年之久。

Again, it's very different from on land.

如果種植的是森林，

All you need to do is cut that seaweed off --

你就得擔心 森林大火、蟲害等等，

drifts into the ocean abyss,

會釋放除碳來。

Once it's down a kilometer,

不過，這種海草養殖的關鍵在於

the carbon in that seaweed is effectively out of the atmospheric system

一根向下深入海中的小管子。

for centuries or millennia.

基本上，海洋中部 就是一個浩瀚的生物沙漠。

Whereas if you plant a forest,

那裡沒有養分， 很久以前就用光了。

you've got to worry about forest fires, bugs, etc.,

但，再下去五百公尺，

releasing that carbon.

就有清涼、營養豐富的水。

The key to this farm, though,

只需要一點乾淨的，可再生能源，

is that little pipe going down into the depths.

就可以把這些水向上抽，

You know, the mid-ocean is basically a vast biological desert.

用水中的營養來灌溉海草作物。

There's no nutrients there that were used up long ago.

我認為這有很多益處。

But just 500 meters down,

它將海洋中部的生物沙漠

there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.

改變成有生產力的， 甚至能拯救地球的解決方案。

And with just a little bit of clean, renewable energy,

所以，這有可能出錯嗎？

you can pump that water up

嗯，這種規模的任何事物，

and use the nutrients in it to irrigate your seaweed crop.

涉及到全球性規模的干預。

So I think this really has so many benefits.

我們得要非常小心。

It's changing a biological desert,

我認為，那些發臭的海草堆，

the mid-ocean,

其實可能還算是最小的問題。

into a productive, maybe even planet-saving solution.

有其他未預見的事情會發生。

So what could go wrong?

每當談到這點， 我最擔心的其中一件事，

Well, anything we're talking about at this scale

就是深海生物多樣性的命運。

involves a planetary-scale intervention.

如果我們把數十億噸 海草丟入深海中，

And we have to be very careful.

我們會影響到下面的生命。

I think that piles of stinking seaweed

好消息是，我們知道

are probably going to be the least of our problems.

在暴風雨之後， 很多海草已經沉到了深海中，

There's other unforeseen things that will happen.

或通過海底峽谷。

One of the things that really worries me, when I talk about this,

所以我們談的 這個過程並不是新的；

is the fate of biodiversity in the deep ocean.

我們談的是增強大自然的過程。

If we are putting gigatons of seaweed into the deep ocean,

我們會邊做邊學。

we're affecting life down there.

可能這些海洋裡的海草養殖場 必須要是活動式的，

The good news is that we know

才能把海草分送到 廣大海洋的各處，

that a lot of seaweed already reaches the deep ocean,

而不是在單一地點 創造出一個巨大的海草堆。

after storms or through submarine canyons.

我們可能會需要把海草燒焦——

So we're not talking about a novel process here;

以產生出一種惰性的礦物性生物炭，

we are talking about enhancing a natural process.

然後再把它送到海洋深處。

And we'll learn as we go.

在尚未開始這過程之前不會知道，

I mean, it may be that these ocean-going seaweed farms will need to be mobile,

我們得要邊做邊學。

to distribute the seaweed across vast areas of the ocean,

我只是想要帶大家看看 現代海草養殖。

rather than creating a big stinking pile in one place.

它是個大事業——

It may be that we'll need to char the seaweed --

每年六十億美金的事業。

so create a sort of an inert, mineral biochar

南韓近海的海草養殖場——

before we dispatch it into the deep.

它們很巨大，從太空中可以看見。

We won't know until we start the process,

漸漸地，它們不再 只是海草養殖場。

and we will learn effectively by doing.

人們在這些地方做的是永續栽培。

I just want to take you to contemporary seaweed farming.

要做海洋永續栽培，

It's a big business --

就要同時養殖魚類、 甲殼類，和海草。

it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.

它能運作得這麼順利的原因

These seaweed farms off South Korea --

是因為海草會讓海水的酸性下降。

you can see them from space, they are huge.

提供了一個理想的環境， 讓海中的蛋白質生長。

And they're increasingly not just seaweed farms.

如果我們能把永續栽培 擴展到全球海洋的 9%，

What people are doing in places like this is something called ocean permaculture.

我們就能以魚類和甲殼類的形式， 產生出足夠的蛋白質，

And in ocean permaculture,

每年供應每人兩百公斤的 高品質蛋白質

you grow fish, shellfish and seaweed all together.

給一百億人口。

And the reason it works so well

所以，這個解決方案有多種用途。

is that the seaweed makes the seawater less acid.

可以處理氣候變遷， 可以供應食物給世界，

It provides an ideal environment for growing marine protein.

可以減少海洋酸化。

If we covered nine percent of the world's oceans

這一切背後需要的經濟會很挑戰。

in ocean permaculture,

我們得要投資數十億美金 給這些解決方案，

we would be producing enough protein in the form of fish and shellfish

還要花上數十年才能 達到十億噸的規模。

to give every person in a population of 10 billion

我深信這個理想會成真，

200 kilograms of high-quality protein per year.

因為若我們不把溫室氣體 從空氣中除去，

So, we've got a multipotent solution here.

它將會一直促成不良的後果。

We can address climate change, we can feed the world,

我們的城市會被洪水淹沒，

we can deacidify the oceans.

我們會喪失食物， 還會有各種內亂。

The economics of all of this is going to be challenging.

所以，任何有解決方案 可以處理這個問題的人，

We'll be investing many, many billions of dollars

就擁有珍貴的資產。

into these solutions,

如我先前解釋的，

and they will take decades to get to the gigaton scale.

海洋永續栽培已經 朝向經濟永續性邁進。

The reason that I'm convinced that this is going to happen

在接下來的三十年內，

is that unless we get the gas out of the air,

我們得要從排放碳的經濟

it is going to keep driving adverse consequences.

轉變為吸收碳的經濟。

It will flood our cities,

這時間並不長。

it will deprive us of food,

但，我們送入大氣中的溫室氣體，

it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.

有一半就是在過去三十年間放的。

So anyone who's got a solution to dealing with this problem

我的主張是，

has a valuable asset.

如果我們花三十年 把這些氣體送入大氣，

And already, as I've explained,

我們也能在三十年內將它們取出。

ocean permaculture is well on the road to being economically sustainable.

如果你懷疑三十年能做什麼，

You know, in the next 30 years,

就回想一下 1919 年，

we have to go from being a carbon-emitting economy

和 1950 年做比較。

to a carbon-absorbing economy.

1919 年，在愛丁堡，